Elections and Economic Turbulence in Brazil: Candidates, Voters, and Investors

The relation between elections and the economy in Latin America might be understood by considering the agency of candidates and the issue of policy preference congruence between investors and voters. The preference congruence model proposed in this article highlights political risk in emerging markets. Certain risk features increase the role of candidate campaign rhetoric and investor preferences in elections. When politicians propose policies that can appease voters and investors, elections may have a limited effect on economic indicators, such as inflation. But when voter and investor priorities differ significantly, deterioration of economic indicators is more likely. Moreover, voter and investor congruence is more likely before stabilization, when an inverted Philips curve exists, as opposed to following stabilization, when a more traditional Philips curve emerges.     

The Impact of Online versus Offline Campaign Information on Citizens’ Knowledge,Attitudes and Political Behaviour: Comparing the German Federal Elections of 2005 and 2009

Against the background of the debate about how the internet changes democratic processes, this article assesses the impact of online versus offline campaign information on citizens’ knowledge, attitudes and political behaviour using data from two pre-/post-election surveys conducted at the German federal elections in 2005 and 2009. Our results show that sophisticated and less sophisticated citizens alike gain knowledge when using online information. Moreover, we find that people exposed to online information develop less ambivalent attitudes towards candidates and parties but do not take on more extreme issue positions. Online information is ineffective in stimulating turnout but compared to traditional news media, the internet gives smaller parties the chance to gain votes. We conclude that overall online information can enhance election campaigns. However, the amount of change should not be overstated as the effects are similar to those of offline political information and depend on the campaign context.     

Campaign Strategies in the 2015 Swiss National Elections: Nationalization,Coordination, and Personalization

This research note examines parties' campaign strategies in the 2015 Swiss elections. We base our analyses on a collection of more than 5000 party advertisements, which were published in the forefront of the national elections in more than 50 daily and weekly national and cantonal print media. By comparing the amount of party and candidate ads, as well as the content and nature of the political advertisements, we explore the degree of professionalization of electoral campaigns in the most recent federal elections in terms of nationalization, coordination and personalization. First results show that although national campaign coordination exists, Swiss elections are to a considerable extent still cantonal and personal affairs.     

Voting for Democracy: Campaign Effects in Chile's Democratic Transition

In a global context in which authoritarian regimes often hold elections, defeating dictators at the polls can play a key role in transitions to democracy. When the opposition is allowed to campaign for votes in such elections, there are strong reasons to believe that its efforts will be more persuasive than those of the authoritarian incumbent. This article examines the effect of televised campaign advertising on vote choice in the 1988 plebiscite that inaugurated Chile's transition to democracy. Using matching to analyze postelectoral survey data, it shows that the advertising of the opposition's no campaign made Chileans more likely to vote against dictator Augusto Pinochet, whereas the advertising of the government's yes campaign had no discernible effect. These findings suggest that the no campaign played an important causal role in the change of political regime.     

Incumbency,internal processes and renomination in Indian parties

This paper analyses a critical aspect of the internal functioning of five major Indian political parties, namely the nomination of candidates for parliamentary elections, focusing on the pattern of renomination of former candidates and incumbents. The data are analysed against the literature on the structure and functioning of Indian parties, and interview material on the process of nomination in the 2009 and 2004 elections. From the perspective of a six-fold typology of centralisation of nomination processes drawn from the comparative literature, it is found that all the parties analysed are in either the second-most centralised, or even most centralised categories, and that for the three major national parties, Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party and Communist Party of India (Marxist), past performance plays a role in nominations, the majority of incumbents being renominated in the post-1989 period.     

Political Representation and Gender in Brazil: Quotas for Women and their Impact

In the 1990s, Brazilian Congress approved an electoral quota for female candidates in parliamentary competition (with exception of the Senate). The reticence of the law and the peculiarities of the Brazilian open lists electoral system have given rise to concern that the quotas will fail. In fact, there has been no great increase in the number of women in Brazilian legislatives – there has been some change in the municipalities, a little less in the states and almost nothing at the federal level. Analysing in detail the results of four elections to the federal Chamber of Deputies, two before and two after the quotas, it becomes apparent that, in Brazil, the impact of quotas is mediated far more than in other countries. Quotas provide, above all, an incentive to party elites to support an increase in the number of female political leaders, and the results may appear only at mid term.     

Campaign Individualisation before and after the Bailout: A Comparison between Greece and Portugal

The elections that took place in Greece and Portugal before and after the intervention of the so-called Troika allow us to examine to what extent the austerity period has affected the nature and style of electoral campaigns, especially in terms of individualisation. Our results show that campaigns in Greece and Portugal were quite different and that Greek candidates supported by the two main parties are more likely to emphasise their role. Yet the short-term impact of the crisis has been negligible, as there have been insignificant shifts in the communicative focus on the personalisation of the agendas and on the means used in the campaign after the intervention of the Troika.     

Three Faces of Constituency Campaigns in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems. Parties and Candidates in Germany, 2005–13

Constituency campaigns are multidimensional and complex: parties and candidates are deeply entangled, and, at least in mixed-member electoral systems, local constituency campaigns are embedded within national party campaigns. Recent discussions have focused on aspects of campaign change in European democracies, especially disentanglement in terms of individualisation, personalisation, and/or localisation. This study contributes to the discussion both conceptually and empirically. Conceptually, three dimensions (‘faces’) of constituency campaigns are differentiated: organisational partyness, vertical integration, and communicative personalisation. This threefold differentiation allows for a more precise analysis of campaign patterns by differentiating party–candidate (organisation, communication) and intra-party (vertical integration) aspects. Constituency campaigns in the 2005, 2009, and 2013 German federal elections are empirically examined. The analysis explains why candidates decide for one or another campaign pattern. These three faces are empirically distinct as well. Furthermore, we argue that parties remain vital for the organisation of campaigns despite a decline in centralisation. Addressing the communicative face, the analysis shows that candidate-related issues are important, but a mix of party- and candidate-related communication gains importance.     

Do Candidates Seek Personal Votes on the Internet? Constituency Candidates in the 2009 German Federal Elections

The Internet provides new opportunities for political communication. How strategic are constituency candidates in exploiting these new opportunities and what are the contexts driving their choices? This paper envisions the Internet as a means for personal vote-seeking on the campaign trail adopted by those candidates electorally motivated in this regard. It aims to explore this argument in theoretical and empirical ways and in light of survey data resulting from the 2009 German Candidate Study (GCS 2009). These data cover 38 per cent (N = 790) of all constituency candidates running in the 2009 campaign and enclose numerous questions on their campaign activities online.     

The 2009 Elections in Schleswig-Holstein: Polarised Electoral Campaign,Exceptional Election Results,and an Unspectacular Process of Government Formation

The elections for the Schleswig-Holstein Landtag were held on 27 September 2009. After conflicts between the governing parties the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD), Prime Minister Carstensen had ended the ‘grand coalition’ and called for early elections, one year earlier than scheduled. The electoral campaign centred on the divide between the Christian Democrats who favoured a coalition with the Liberals, and the Social Democrats who competed for a majority together with the Greens. The elections resulted in large shifts in party strength. Christian and Social Democrats together lost about 22 percentage points of votes, while most of the smaller parliamentary parties attained their best election results in Schleswig-Holstein state elections ever. CDU and FDP gained a majority of seats and formed a coalition that re-elected Carstensen into office on 27 October. Using concepts from coalition theory, our analysis shows that a Christian–Liberal coalition was indeed the most likely outcome of the government formation process.     

Frozen in the Centre,Melting at the Edges?1 The Landtagswahlen in Hesse and Lower Saxony,January 2008

It is rare that two Land elections, taking place on the same day in neighbouring Western Länder, both run by the CDU (in a coalition with the FDP in one), provide such sharp contrasts in both campaigns and outcomes as the Land elections in Hesse and Lower Saxony in January 2008. This election note draws out these contrasts and sets the results in the wider context of their potential impact on the ‘long campaign’ towards the next federal election scheduled for autumn 2009.     

Minimum Winning Electoral Coalitions Under Presidentialism: Reality or Fiction? The Case of Brazil

This article studies the motivations of party leaders to form "minimum winning" electoral coalitions—alliances that cease to be winning if one member is subtracted. In Brazil, concurrent elections stimulate political actors' coordination, and electoral alliances are allowed. In 2002 and 2006, moreover, the Electoral Supreme Court obliged those parties with presidential candidates to replicate this electoral arrangement in the district. Under "verticalization," parties with presidential candidates could not form alliances with rival parties in the concurrent legislative and gubernatorial elections. Verticalization arguably pushed party leaders to form minimum winning electoral coalitions. This new rule forced them to reconsider the contributions of each possible ally in the elections for president, federal deputy, and governor. Examining the elections from 1998 to 2006, this study finds that under verticalization, while parties did form more electoral coalitions with those partners they considered crucial to win, they did so at the expense of policy.     

Argentina's Landmark 2003 Presidential Election: Renewal and Continuity

This article provides an analysis of the political and socioeconomic context of the April 2003 presidential elections, focusing particularly on the campaign platforms of candidates, the outcome of the first round and the election's consequences for the party system. The election's results were far reaching in many respects. Argentina's longstanding two-party system came to an end with the virtual vanishing of the Radical party (UCR) at the national level. An evolved political culture resulted in new, more rigorous criteria for the selection of candidates. Finally, new political parties (MNR and ARI) emerged that could conceivably improve the quality of democratic governance in the future. In short, the 2001–2002 crisis fostered a significant degree of political renewal. Contrary to some predictions, however, the societal rejection of political parties did not result in either the complete demolition of the party system or the wholesale renovation of the political class. In particular, the Peronist party showcased its staying power and uncanny ability to adapt to new political environments.     

Too Much Democracy? Primaries and Candidate Success in the 2006 Mexican National Elections

Do primaries help political parties perform better in general elections, or do they undermine electoral performance by contributing to internal divisions and to the weakening of party organizations? This article examines the effect of holding a primary on the general election prospects of candidates, using cases from two of the three major parties in Mexico's 2006 national legislative elections. In both parties, primaries fail to systematically produce candidates with advantages in the general election, due largely to organizational deficits of the parties and low entry requirements for aspiring precandidates. Indeed, outside urban centers, where parties tend to be better organized, primaries actually seem to hurt party performance in subsequent general elections.     

Invalid Voting in German Constituencies

This article studies invalid voting, which has received very little attention so far, given the broad interest and substantial relevance of voting behaviour research. Existing evidence is mostly limited to rather specific and hardly representative countries. Yet, the extent of invalid ballots is not negligible. Despite undemanding electoral rules, more invalid votes are cast in German general elections than votes for niche parties. Against this backdrop, the article describes prevalence of invalid voting in the mixed electoral system of Germany and tests explanations of its variation between constituencies. Analysing data from the most recent Bundestag Election, results give clear support to politico-institutional explanations: voters are more willing to waste their vote if second-order elections are held concurrently. Specifically under the plurality rule, more (first) votes are wasted if there are large shares for parties without direct candidates and many competing candidates.     

Party opportunism among local politicians after Taiwan’s power transition

This paper probes into a hypothesised opportunism towards political party affiliation among local politicians in Taiwan since the power transition from Kuomintang (KMT) to Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rule began in 2000. Longitudinal changes in election candidates' party affiliation are analysed to see what happened to the KMT's supposedly strong base of local politicians after the change of governing party. The research finds a generally high propensity of election candidates' changing or dropping their party affiliation between elections, and an increased propensity among KMT candidates after 2000. However, defections to other parties are more common in higher elections. In grassroots elections, many candidates flow in and out of their party affiliation depending on the political circumstances, but they rarely change party. Several years after the DPP gained power in presidential elections, the new ruling party is still struggling to build a strong local party organisation.     

Are European Elections Second-Order Elections for Everyone?

Second-order election (SOE) theory has been used to explain voting behaviour in European elections. Voters believe that less is at stake in some elections and some voters hence tend to cast a protest vote. However, most studies on the topic have focused on the demand side of SOEs – i.e. on the voters – and have ignored or only partially tackled the supply side – i.e. the strategic behaviour of parties – and excluded small and marginal parties (SMPs). However, SMPs may have greater incentive to seriously compete in SOEs. The 2019 European Parliament elections in Germany were particularly interesting to SMPs as there was no voting threshold, thereby increasing the chances of SMPs. To capture whether SMPs view European elections as first-order elections and therefore expend more resources than parliamentary parties on these elections, I analysed campaign expenditures and manifestos. Results indicate that SMPs act within a rational actor framework, though not unequivocally.     

Beyond Fateh Corruption and Mass Discontent: Hamas,the Palestinian Left and the 2006 Legislative Elections

The unanticipated victory of Hamas in the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections was a defining moment in the study of Islamist politics; the results were a startling surprise to all parties, not least Hamas. Much of the literature that assesses the electoral success of Islamists focuses on the distinct characteristics of Islamist groups, paying less attention to the complex interplay of factors that may account for their success. Examining Hamas's performance in the 2006 legislative elections, this article endeavours to: (1) challenge pervasive analysis which asserts the distinctiveness of Islamist political organisations; (2) situate the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections within a broader discussion of opposition politics in the Arab world; and (3) highlight the significance of long-term organisational trajectories and election campaign strategies in accounting for Islamist electoral performance. Findings in this article have important implications for how we understand Islamist and leftist opposition politics in light of the Arab Spring.     

Turkish Popular Presidential Elections: Deepening Legitimacy Issues and Looming Regime Change

This paper examines the politics of presidential elections in Turkey with particular reference to the 10 August 2014 presidential elections. It starts by scrutinising the change in the presidential election system from parliamentary to direct popular vote. It then probes the implementation of the new election rules, candidate selection, and the conduct of the campaign, followed by analysis of the election results and their influence on the Turkish record of democratisation. The paper concludes that the move to a partisan president elected by popular vote entails democratic dangers if the new incumbent does not abide by his or her constitutional role and attempts to intervene in government policy.