Causal inference and American political development: contrasts and complementarities

Public Choice - Causal inference and American political development (APD) are widely separated and (to some) fundamentally incompatible tendencies within political science. In this paper, we...     

American political development and new challenges of causal inference

Public Choice - Members of the subfield of American Political Development (APD), like other political scientists, are confronting the identification revolution in the social sciences. They are...     

Causal inference and American political development: the case of the gag rule

Public Choice - We extend previous work on the role of politically motivated donors who contribute to candidates in an election with single dimension policy preferences. In a two-stage game wherein...     

Learning from each other: causal inference and American political development

Public Choice - Within political science, a movement focused on increasing the credibility of causal inferences (CIs) has gained considerable traction in recent years. While CI has been...     

Game theory and the study of American political development

Game theoretic analyses of American institutions and American political development largely are disconnected enterprises, yet they share many points of contact and thus opportunities for fruitful exchange. In this essay I discuss the value and limits of formalization for the enterprise of institutional analysis that those fields have in common. I conceptualize two broad approaches that formal modelers have taken to study institutions—institutions as game forms, and institutions as equilibria—that have been relatively successful for understanding institutional choice and stability. At the same time, formal modelers have been less successful in addressing institutional change and development, topics about which APD has much to offer. Overall, I contend that crosstalk between the two fields can benefit them both.

     

Randomized experiments by government institutions and American political development

Public Choice - Are the methods of causal inference and, in particular, randomized controlled trials, compatible with the study of political history? While many important questions regarding...     

Applying regression discontinuity designs to American political development

Public Choice - Students of American political development (APD) have long been interested in questions related to the development of “state capacity” in the United States. The apparent...     

Public affairs,issues management,and political strategy: opportunities,opportunities, and more opportunities

This paper begins where Professor Windsor left off and enumerates some other areas in which academic research could be profitably pursued for both intellectual and practical gain. The tone of Professor Windsor's paper is pessimistic, and lays out in detail some of the obstacles to research; but these are not insurmountable. Some key areas that can be explored to the benefit of researchers and practitioners are in self‐regulation, the initiative process, term limits (a relatively recent phenomenon and not particularly well known outside of the USA), and in alliance building, constituency statutes, and links to stakeholder theory and action. Each of these additional areas is addressed in this presentation. Copyright © 2001 Henry Stewart Publications     

Trade unions for EMU: Sectoral preferences and political opportunities

Surveys conducted on the political economy of Europe's Economic and Monetary Union have seldom considered the response of domestic interest groups, notably trade unions. This article contrasts and explains the positions on EMU adopted by major British, French and German trade unions, in the process reassessing the so‐called interest group approach to preference formulation. It is argued that while the impact of sectoral orientation appears significant, it is mitigated by the intervention of ideological and institutional factors. On a substantive level, unions turned out to be broadly supportive of what many had labelled a ‘monetarist’ project. If as is often argued, social and political cohesion is needed for monetary union to endure, this represents an important development.     

Protest participation and economic crisis: The conditioning role of political opportunities

The economic crisis that started in 2008 has negatively affected European nations to different degrees. The sudden rise in demonstrations particularly in those countries most hard hit by the crisis suggests that grievance theories, dismissed in favour of resource‐based models since the 1970s, might have a role to play in explaining protest behaviour. While most previous studies have tested these theories at the individual or contextual levels, it is likely that mechanisms at both levels are interrelated. To fill this lacuna, this article examines the ways in which individual‐level grievances interact with macro‐level factors to impact on protest behaviour. In particular, it examines whether the impact of individual subjective feelings of deprivation is conditional on contextual macroeconomic and policy factors. It is found that while individual‐level relative deprivation has a direct effect on the propensity to have protested in the last year, this effect is greater under certain macroeconomic and political conditions. Both significant results for the cross‐level interactions are interpreted in terms of their role for opening up political opportunities for protest among those who feel they have been most deprived in the current crisis. These findings suggest that the interaction of the contextual and individual levels should continue to be explored in future studies in order to further clarify the mechanisms underlying protest behaviour.     

Making future leaders in the US intelligence community: challenges and opportunities

This article explores what factors are important in developing the future leaders of the US intelligence community in the post-9/11 security environment. It surveys traditional leadership theory to assess whether any of its perspectives are applicable to understanding leadership in the intelligence context. It argues, that although some leadership theory may be applicable, the intelligence studies field may be better served by developing its own body of leadership theory. Second, any leadership theory needs to consider together the two synergistic components of intelligence leadership: personal leadership development and the ability to lead organization reform. Furthermore, the role of intelligence governance may be the most critical factor in promoting better leaders of US intelligence agencies and the broader community.     

Intergovernmental councils in Spain: Challenges and opportunities in a changing political context

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews the most important characteristics and of the Spanish Intergovernmental Councils (IGCs) and theorizes about the effect of the increasing fragmentation of the party system on the nature and dynamics of multilateral bargaining in IGCs. The essential argument is that party system fragmentation may have an impact on IGCs through its effect on the formation of minority and coalition governments. These types of governments may put an end to the two-bloc confrontation, bring to the system higher levels of party congruence between levels of government and lower the costs of compromise, three factors that may help to grease the bargaining process and, in turn, enhance the achievement of intergovernmental cooperation agreements. The positive effect will be conditional on several factors, namely the ideological coherence of inter-party alliances, the predominant type of government in the system (coalition or single-party minority) and the duration of governments.     

Social crisis and political decay: The contemporary American malaise

Abstract

By the 1990s American society had become more depoliticized than at any time in recent history, with the vast majority of the population increasingly alienated from the political system. This has occurred, ironically, at a time when deepening social problems—environmental degradation, homelessness, eroding public services, civic violence, threats to privacy—require extensive and creative political intervention. Further, it has taken place during a period of accelerated growth of higher education, informational resources, and communications. Most people seem to have lost hope for remedies to social problems within the existing public sphere. The political system has atrophied, with differences between the two major parties narrower than ever; citizenship is in drastic decline, as reflected in lower voter turnout, collapsing sense of political efficacy among ordinary citizens, and declining knowledge about the social and political world. This triumph of anti‐politics is not a matter of failed leaders, parties, or movements, nor of flawed structural arrangements, but mirrors a deeper historical process—one tied to increased corporate colonization and economic globalization—that shapes every facet of daily life and political culture. Depoliticization is the predictable mass response to a system that is designed to marginalize dissent, privatize social relations, and reduce the scope of democratic participation.     

The future of political campaigning: the American example

The Internet will provide a way to force direct democracy to the fore, replacing many of the prerogatives now reserved for representative democracy. This is especially true in Europe where the continental integration of the economy has not been matched by integrated political democracy. Lobbying in the UK will become less relevant as the EU comes to predominate. Lobbying in the future will have to be directed downward — to mobilise the public — rather than upward, attempting to influence the Parliament. Copyright © 2003 Henry Stewart Publications.     

Determinants of political judgments: The joint influence of normative and heuristic rules of inference

Prior research on political judgment has been polarized, with one group emphasizing normative models of political inference and the other emphasizing heuristic models of political inference. In accordance with recent findings in psychology, this article is rooted in the assumption that both normative and heuristic criteria simultaneously influence political judgments. Furthermore, differences in the relative extent to which these two processes serve to determine political judgments are hypothesized to depend on the nature of the judgment task. Two kinds of political judgments are considered: judgments reflecting beliefs about the candidates' stands on the issues and judgments reflecting global evaluations of the candidates. The reported results confirm that (1) voters rely on both normative- and heuristic-based considerations when forming these judgments, and (2) the relative extent to which these criteria influence these judgments depends on the complexity of the judgment task.     

Sustainable urbanism in temperate-arid climates: Models,challenges and opportunities for the Anthropocene

Climate change requires more sustainable urbanism developments. Locales in temperate and arid climates are under added pressure to create more economical, ecological, and just neighborhoods. Do sustainable urbanism developments have advantages over traditional urbanism projects in temperate–arid climates? The main purpose of this paper is to examine four distinct neighborhoods in the southwest of the United States in order to clarify the evolution of sustainable urbanism developments according to the three C's framework of compactness, connectedness, and completeness. The methods included a study of each development's history, motivations, design principles, and built environment features. The key finding is an up-to-date understanding of how neighborhood development models have been implemented to help create more sustainable cities as well as the identification of a set of challenges and opportunities for advancing sustainable urbanism research.