中亚高加索成为大国争夺焦点

中亚高加索成为大国争夺焦点冯玉军马香云一苏联解体后，里海周围的中亚高加索地区出现了“权力真空”，各种国际势力都想插手该地区事务。特别是近来，随着里海地区油气资源开发浪潮的不断升温和俄美在北约东扩问题上斗争的暂告平息，美国、俄罗斯等世界大国和土耳其、伊...     

中亚:全球能源争夺的热点

俄、美、欧围绕中亚和里海地区油气资源的角逐使该地区成为全球能源争夺战中的战略热点。中亚和里海沿岸国家为谋取本国利益的最大化,积极开展多方位外交。大国在中亚的能源争夺战中谁都不能独占鳌头,而只能是竞争与合作并存。     

里海油气管道控制权争夺现状

里海和中亚有着丰富的油气资源,一战前,作为世界上两个最大的油田所在地之一的俄罗斯帝国的里海地区(另一个在美国的得克萨斯州),因其丰富的油气资源始终吸引着国际石油资本的注意力。一战后,英国部队趁俄罗斯红军与白匪内战之机在黑海东岸的巴统市登陆,想控制里海石油的未来开发权,但遭到惨败。二战期间,阿道尔·希特勒曾发动“蓝色行动”,企图以武力掠夺里海的油田,也以失败而告终。苏联解体后,世界石油资本再次涌入,俄美等大国为了本国的经济、政治利益在此展开争夺,尤其是石油外运管道的争夺更为激烈。     

里海地区国家近期油气出口潜力及大国的角逐

中亚-里海地区是当今世界的热点之一。该地区的俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦等国都有相对较丰富的油气资源及其出口潜力。世界大国围绕控制中亚-里海地区能源资源正展开激烈角逐。美国实施“里海卫队”的新战略，旨在确立美国在该地区的军事存在，以军事手段控制该地区的油气资源。俄罗斯针锋相对，亦在该地区实施军事化战略，防止美国染指俄国利益。     

上海合作组织对俄罗斯的战略意义

由于中亚地区在地缘政治、地缘经济（战略性能源）和国际安全方面具有重大战略价值，冷战后，特别是“九一一”事件后，美俄加剧了在中亚地区的争夺。面对美国咄咄逼人的攻势，俄罗斯艰难应对。在维护俄罗斯的中亚战略利益、打击中亚“三股势力”、缔造俄南部和东部稳定周边环境、构建区域经济一体化等方面，上海合作组织对于俄罗斯而言具有不可替代的战略意义。     

土库曼斯坦与美国关系及其对我影响

近年来，美国加快发展与土库曼斯坦的关系。土因地处中亚且富含油气而引起许多国家的关注。“9·11”后，美出于保证全球能源安全和反恐需要将土列为涉及国家安全和国际问题的重要国家。美通过外交和“经援”活动对土进行拉拢、渗透和推进“民主”工作。目的是减少自身对全球能源的依赖并抗衡伊朗和俄罗斯的势力扩充，强化对中亚和里海地区的介入。土与我友好并拟长期向我供气，故我需对土美关系及其对我可能造成的影响进行关注。     

一部反映吉尔吉斯斯坦全貌的好书--读《吉尔吉斯斯坦》

冷战结束后,国际形势发生了重大变化。两极世界的传统格局被打破,世界朝着多极化的方向发展。为了在多种力量的相互制约中保持自己的地位,大国往往通过参与或领导地区性事务来扩大影响,中、小国家则以联合的方式同大国集团抗衡。近年来,由于特殊的经济和地缘政治地位,中亚地区成为国际社会关注的焦点。21世纪的国际经济离不开以强有力的能源作后盾,扼守里海大陆架的中亚地区作为世界油气资源的主产地之一,备受各国和各大跨国石油公司瞩目;在国际安全事务中,除了传统威胁,近年来又出现了非传统威胁。为了同恐怖势力作斗争,俄、美等国争相在中…     

里海石油与国际政治

里海沿岸五国为维护各自的国家利益,在里海的法律地位和水域划分、油气勘探开采权、油气输出管道走向等三个问题上展开激烈的斗争,各国间利益冲突难以平衡.围绕里海能源之争,美俄之间的斗争将进一步加剧.     

里海地区的油气资源

国际能源机构1998年下半年发表了题为《里海地区的油气资源:中亚及外高加索地区的供应潜力》的报告,作者是以汉斯·考希为首的、该机构及其他有关机构的专家小组,他们曾于1997年底至1998年初前往阿塞拜疆、哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦进行了实地调研。该报告称,里海地区蕴藏着迄今世界上最大的尚未开发的油气资源,国际上主要的油气开发公司已开始加紧对这一地区油气资源的争夺;里海地区虽难以成为“第二个中东”,但其潜在     

试论中亚-里海地区石油的新时代——兼评海湾——中亚——东亚石油"大陆桥"设想

超大型油田的发现、地缘政治的演化与国际石油市场高价位运行,使中亚-里海地区油气业的战略地位得以提升.有关国家在本地区既有激烈竞争,又必然要开展一些合作.外部力量在中亚-里海地区参与任何一个国家的油气业务,都只能在商业的基础上运营,无法垄断别国的油气资源.亚欧大陆中部的油气资源向东西两个方向分流、中亚-里海油气出口对象的多国化与油气外运管道的多向化,是一种历史趋势.海湾--中亚--东亚石油大陆桥已不仅是一种设想,而且是正在部分构建中的现实.     

Inter-Korean relations and the roles of the US and of the EU

The North Korean nuclear standoff has escalated since North Korea let slip that it was developing nuclear weapons while James Kelly, U.S. Assistant Secretary of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, was visiting Pyongyang in October 2002. The Bush administration has acknowledged that the United States will not discount a preemptive military strike on the suspected nuclear development facilities, and North Korea has stood firm against any pressure to halt its nuclear development from the international community. Dialogue and meetings for international cooperation among the major countries concerned, including Korea, the U.S., Japan and China, have been activated to resolve the nuclear crisis in the Korean Peninsula, especially after the U.S. pronounced an end to its war against Iraq in early May of this year. In the middle of the rapidly changing situation on the Korean peninsula, the inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation initiated by the Sunshine Policy of the Kim Dae Jung administration and followed by the Roh Moo-hyun administrations Policy of Peace and Prosperity are not separable from the nuclear situation. This paper follows recent developments of inter-Korean relations, illustrates South Koreas stance on the issue and suggests the EUs role on the nuclear issue. This is a revised version of the paper presented at the Asia-EU Journalists Seminar organized by the Asia Europe Foundation and the Korea Press Foundation (KPF), held in Brussels, Belgium, May 22 2003. Financial support from the KPF is gratefully acknowledged.     

美苏政治文化差异与冷战起源

一国政治文化对国家对外决策有不可忽视的影响。美苏政治文化中相互冲突的部分对两国战后初期外交决策以及冷战爆发产生重要影响，国家间的政治文化沟通对处理国家间相互关系具有重要意义。     

Strengthen the Communication Among the Youth and Enhance the Mutual Understanding and Trust

AttheinvitationoftheInternationalInitiativesofChangeAssociationofJapanIICAJIaccompa-niedMr.LiYangCouncilMemberofChineseAs-sociationforInternationalUnderstandingCAFIUonthevisittoJapanfromJune10to18andat-tendedthe27thInternationalConferenceoftheInitiativeofChangeinOdawara.DuringourstaythereweseparatelymetwithTutomuHataAdvi-sortotheIICAJandformerPrimeMinisterofJapanSomaYukikaHonoraryPresidentofIICAJToruHashimotoPresidentofIICAJandAdvisortotheJapanMizuhoFinancialGroupandD…     

海陆复合型地缘政治大国的战略选择与崛起成败

国际体系是一个复杂的利益交互系统,在系统中存在着众多战略层面的施动—反馈模式。地缘政治大国的安全战略选择决定了它与体系其他主要成员间的互动方式,互动方式决定了其可能面临的结构性压力,并最终影响到大国崛起的兴衰成败。通过本项研究可以发现:海陆复合型崛起大国的战略模式可以分为"区域陆权"战略、"全球海权"战略和"区域/全球海陆并举"战略。如果崛起大国尚未形成稳固的陆基周边环境,那么追求"区域陆权"战略是最优选择;如果拥有稳固陆基周边环境,那么追求"全球海权"战略是最优选择。而"海陆并举"战略因"同色竞争"原理,既可能同周边国家陷入"区域陆权"优势的安全困境,也可能同"全球海权"国家陷入争霸战争。因此,"海陆并举"战略往往容易造就一个反对自身崛起的海陆权力联姻。此外,追求单一的"差色互补"原理容易实现海陆功能分异背景下的战略结盟,进而影响大国崛起战略的操作实施。     

The EU and Libya and the Art of the Possible

In spite of geographic proximity and a number of shared interests, the European Union and Libya have a history of strained relations. The war of 2011 provided an opportunity for a fresh start, but so far neither side has been able to reap benefits from an entirely new political situation. Instead, Libya’s difficult internal situation has not only slowed down the process of rapprochement, but also increased EU concern. At a time when cooperation becomes a necessity rather than a choice, Libya is now down-spiralling into implosion at the levels of security, bureaucracy and economy, to the point where it cannot absorb the offers being made.     

抗击经济衰退：象和龙

由美国引发的经济危机已经席卷全球,无论是西方发达国家和地区如日本、欧盟,还是发展中国家如印度、中国,都已笼罩在全球经济衰退的阴影中。本文探讨作为正在崛起的亚洲大国——印度和中国,应采取怎样的措施遏制全球经济危机对本国经济造成更严重的伤害,以及印中两国如何借鉴对方在应对经济危机过程中采取的有效政策以尽快重新走上经济发展的正轨。     

China and the WTO: the theory and practice of compliance

Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December2001, attention has turned to the issue of whether or not Chinais a responsible member of the organization and how compliantChina is with WTO rules. This article discusses the difficultiesfaced by China, as a responsible rising power, in trying toadjust itself to global trading norms. It examines the theoryof compliance in international relations from the perspectivesof neo-realism, liberal institutionalism and social constructivism,and then tests these perspectives by examining the mechanismsused to gauge China's compliance, both bilaterally by the UnitedStates and multilaterally through the Dispute Settlement Mechanismand the Transition Review Mechanism of the WTO. The result ismixed: different opinions exist as to how compliant China hasbeen but, on the whole, most monitors agree that China has triedhard to comply with WTO requirements in various areas, thoughmuch remains to be done. The most severe tests will come inthe next few years when China's financial and service sectorswill have to face fundamental changes to the way they operate.     

Caught between Europe and the orient: Israel and the EMP

As the case of Transnistria illustrates, the politico-economic arrangements of de facto states are marked by a tendency to sacrifice the economy to political objectives. Despite non-recognition and limited local resources, these entities manage to make use of their ambiguous status and external support to sustain their claims to statehood. Yet, the priority of these claims over economic development, as well as strategies of survival in general can have unintended effects on unrecognised state-building projects, such as the emergence of a spin-off opposition or public disillusionment.     

Campaign Advertising and the Stimulation and Activation of the Authoritarian Personality

This research examines whether authoritarianism can be stimulated and activated by politicians. The traditional belief is that psychological traits are basically quasipermanent structures that consistently determine behavior, but newer research suggests that these traits can be stimulated. This research tests whether campaigns can stimulate traits with targeted messages. I do so by exposing subjects in an experiment to political television advertising that was designed to stimulate known correlates of authoritarianism, such as fear. The results show that authoritarianism is stimulated in treatment groups that watched advertising designed to invoke threat and the strong-father metaphor and the treatment effect is greater on conservatives. I also show that watching these commercials leads to an activation of authoritarianism that influences its predictive power over support for torture. This suggests that politicians can use emotional appeals to stimulate advantageous personality traits, and that these ads also influence the public's attitudes through activation.     

当代俄罗斯贫富分化的危机与超越

俄罗斯由转型而引发的贫富差距问题,对社会造成了许多负面影响,比如,道德规范下降,公民淡漠政治,公信力大大降低等。现如今,俄罗斯的贫富差距并没有消除,但整个社会形势却不断好转,人民的乐观情绪不断增长,国家也在稳定中不断走向复兴。从这些现实状况来看,俄罗斯社会似乎摆脱了贫富分化的纠结,已然超越到了另一个发展阶段。俄罗斯转型期的公共政策、阶层分化模式、阶层状况等一些措施与现实,不失为解释这两种情势变换更迭的有效途径。