THE PROSPECTS FOR ARMS CONTROL AFTER THE SUMMIT

In summary, then, SDI remains the major stumbling block, but it is by no means the only one. Yet the portrayal of the Summit increased public perceptions of a movement towards arms control agreements precisely because it saw those agreements as dependent on the personal relationship between the two leaders. In doing so it both overestimated the importance of the two individuals and mistook their desire for success at the Summit for a desire for actual positive results on arms control. It also underestimated the importance of the underlying issues that had prevented agreement at START and INF, before SDI was announced; it is these disagreements that seem likely to prevent successful negotiations for the remainder of the US Administration. The conclusion of this paper is that despite the differences on strategic and defensive systems, the underlying constraint is that of the Reagan Administration's views on arms control. That view makes the outlook for arms control a very bleak one.