Writing the History of the Future: Securing Stability through Peace Agreements

Abstract

Building effective states is crucial to global stability and prosperity, but this priority has yet to be translated into a consistent approach embraced by a community of practice. Various factors have constrained the emergence of such a community, including a lack of consensus on the range of functions that states should perform. Peace agreements are implicitly exercises in statecraft but have not been systematically analysed as such. Systematic analysis of peace agreements reveals seven foci of statecraft. This analysis in turn reveals seven key building-blocks that peace agreements, as exercises in statecraft, must address in laying the foundations for a durable, inclusive political, social and economic order.     

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan: Impartiality in New UN Peace Operations

Abstract

Set within the complex contemporary context of international interventions, UN peacekeeping operations have now evolved into peace operations. The emergence of the concepts of human security and the responsibility to protect have raised expectations that UN peace operations should deal with both macro and micro level insecurity in conflict and post-conflict situations, especially in the case of failed or collapsed states. Reflecting this development, the question of an appropriate framework in which to conceptualize peace operations has also been debated. This essay considers a conceptualization of UN peace operations from a conflict resolution perspective and analyses the case of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), using a framework of conflict transformation. It argues that the impartiality of UN operations has been reconceived in terms of the values of ‘human security’ and the ‘responsibility to protect’, making it vital to explicitly articulate the meaning and implications of ‘value-based’ impartiality.     

The UN system's contribution to Asia-Pacific security architecture

Although it has been the major states of China, the former Soviet Union and especially the United States that have made the major contributions to shaping the security architecture of the Asia-Pacific region since 1945, the UN system has played a useful, adjunct role. This is especially the case in the post-Cold War era when its principal bodies, together with its various specialized agencies, have provided vital support in moving warring societies into a period of relative peace and stability. The UN peace-building operations in Cambodia and East Timor were some of the most demanding ever undertaken by this universal institution. But beyond these particular examples, the United Nations has been influential in the region in other, more indirect, ways. It has set standards, its charter has been a powerful source of ideas when it comes to composing parallel documents at the state or regional levels, and it has helped with the negotiation of global arms control treaties, making up to some degree for the absence of such arrangements at the regional level. The UN has also had a legitimating function, providing an arena where Asia-Pacific states can publicize their grievances, and receive approval or reprimand for their behaviour. It has played a valuable role, too, as third-party mediator. However, the UN's political structure constrains the contribution it can make to the security order since it is reliant on major state agreement before it can act. Veto power - not its actual use but simply its anticipated use - gives China, Russia and the United States a controlling function with respect to a potential UN role in the management of conflict. Beijing and Washington would work, and have worked, to exclude the United Nations from major involvement in conflicts in which they have direct security interests: the Taiwan and Korean issues being the two most obvious in this regard. Thus, the United Nations is a useful buttress but not a central pillar of the region's security architecture.     

Economic Aid and Peace Implementation: The African Experience

Abstract

This paper examines the potential importance of externally-facilitated peace dividends and donor coordination in sustaining peace after the signing of an accord. We extend our previous research on US performance after civil wars to learn if adversary assumptions on peace dividends have additional positive impact when a wider sample of major Western European donors is included. Was the lack of US follow-through compensated for in whole or in part by the extension of development assistance allocations from European allies? We find that cases in which donors provide significant and sustained post-conflict aid are somewhat less likely to return to civil war than those who do not receive comparable assistance. Moreover, we find in such cases that donor coordination reinforced behaviour that encouraged the implementation process, providing an extra incentive for maintaining the peace agreement over the five-year threshold and beyond.     

Security Sector Reform in Liberia: An Uneven Partnership without Local Ownership

Abstract

The security situation in Liberia is currently quite good, and at a glance the peacebuilding process seems to be moving ahead. However, the root causes of the conflict have not been adequately addressed, but have in fact become more interlinked in the aftermath of the civil war. Instead of addressing local perceptions of insecurity the international community made plans for Liberia without considering the context in which reforms were to be implemented. The peace in post-conflict Liberia is therefore still fragile and the international presence is regarded as what secures the peace. Still, the UN is supposed to start its full withdrawal in 2010—indicating that the international community will leave the country without addressing the root causes of conflict.     

Information,Agreement Design,and the Durability of Civil War Settlements

Civil war is usually examined from the perspective of commitment problems. This approach provides considerable insight regarding which civil war agreement provisions reduce the chance of renewed fighting. Yet, additional insight can be gained by examining information asymmetries as a potential cause of civil war recurrence. We argue that significant uncertainty regarding military capabilities may persist after fighting ends and that this uncertainty may lead to the breakdown of peace. However, carefully designed peace agreements can guard against renewed civil war by calling for international monitoring, making the belligerents submit military information to third parties, and providing for verification of this information. Our empirical analysis of 51 civil war settlements between 1945 and 2005 shows that these provisions significantly reduce the risk of new civil war. Encouraging the adoption of these provisions may be a useful policy in the international community's effort to establish peace in civil‐war‐torn societies.     

Problematising UN-local Civil Society Engagement in Peacebuilding: Towards Non-modern Epistemes Through Relationality

ABSTRACT

This article seeks to argue that the problematic engagement between United Nations peacebuilding and local civil society reveals an ontological tension between different forms of conceiving of actors and processes in peacebuilding contexts. Relationality is introduced as a potential analytical breakthrough. The article problematises UN static categorisations as failing to capture the complexity of local civil society and imposing a highly technical form of engagement. Unaware of these limitations, the UN seeks to instrumentalise local civil society to engage it in peacebuilding settings. This pattern is critically presented here as a totalising process through which the UN attempts to secure modernity.     

At Cross Purposes? Democratization and Peace Implementation Strategies in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Frozen Conflict

The case of post-Dayton Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) provides an interesting lens through which to reflect on the interconnected and often conflicting challenges of implementation of internationally brokered peace agreements, external support to democratic transition and consolidation, and contemporary notions of sovereignty and state building. This chapter suggests that in the case of BiH, certain contradictions and tradeoffs have been and may still be necessary to ensure a foundation for future stability and democratic consolidation. The situation in post-Dayton BiH can be described as a frozen conflict that has remained frozen in large part due to an international presence that ensures that an imperfect peace prevails while also providing a basis for incremental reform. The peace implementation process in BiH is briefly reviewed by looking at two reform strategies: the “soft” protectorate strategy used in BiH as a whole and the “hard” protectorate option exercised in the District of Brčko. The aim is to demonstrate that while a democratic end-state remains the goal in such transitions, the means toward getting there can include a number of contradictory policy options.

Civil society actors in peace negotiations in Central America

Civil society actors are assumed to play an important part in post-conflict peacebuilding; therefore, the international community pushes for civil society participation already during peace negotiations. However, the actual connection between civil society’s participation in those negotiations and its role in implementation processes remains unclear. Taking the Central American peace processes of the late 1980s and early 90s as a case study, this article compares civil society participation in peace negotiations and provisions for civil society involvement for the implementation phase, with the actual role that the civil society played in the implementation processes in Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador. The article questions the importance of including civil society actors in the negotiation process since the level of civil society inclusion in, activism during and influence on the negotiation process in the three cases did not result in a stronger role for civil society organizations in the implementation process. The article concludes with an analysis of how these findings modify the current understanding of the role of civil society in peace processes and proposes a different focus for future research.     

Afraid of a ‘Kosovo Scenario’: A Disquieting Precedent for International Conflict Management

The UN Security Council Resolution 1244 (1999) represented an interim settlement that permitted conflict de-escalation while postponing the search for a lasting political solution. The final settlement should have been reached through negotiations between Belgrade and the Kosovo Albanians, and then endorsed by the UN Security Council, in accordance with the UN Resolution 1244 (1999). However, citing the ambiguity of the interim agreement and a deadlock in the negotiations, the United States and its allies recognized Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence in February 2008, thereby allowing the Kosovo Albanians to defect from the peace process. Therefore, instead of an internationally endorsed negotiated outcome, there has been an attempt at a unilaterally enforced political settlement, in disregard for the authority of the UN Security Council, which had placed Kosovo under international administration. The subsequent involvement of the International Court of Justice has failed to resolve the contentious issues between Belgrade and Prishtina or bridge the international divide over Kosovo. Besides creating a troublesome legal precedent, the recognition of Kosovo represents a bad model for international conflict management. The issues of concern are the viability of future interim settlements, good faith negotiations and the legitimacy and guarantees provided by the international involvement, including the authority of the UN Security Council. Some parallels are drawn between Kosovo and other territorial disputes, particularly in the Caucasus, indicating how the Kosovo case could influence other conflicts.     

Military Integration,Demobilization, and the Recurrence of Civil War

ABSTRACT

Peace agreements often include provisions for the military integration of the conflict parties, involving an increase in government forces, and at the same time requesting demobilization and thus a reduction of military personnel. Depending on the modalities and magnitude both can be strong signals of a commitment to the peace process. However, tensions between these two concepts can also endanger post-conflict stability. The empirical analyses of 77 post-conflict societies show that civil war is more likely to recur if rebel forces are kept separate during the military integration process and if the military plays an important role in post-conflict economies.     

The West Divided? A Snapshot of Human Rights and Transatlantic Relations at the United Nations

Based mostly on extensive interviews with diplomats and human rights activists, this article questions the claim advanced by the German philosopher Jürgen Habermas that current transatlantic relations can be described in terms of a “Divided West.” We examine the scope and depth of shared understandings between key actors in the United States, Germany, and Canada with regard to the definition, monitoring, and implementation of international human rights and to the reform of human rights-related mechanisms within the broader context of current UN reforms. While we do find differences between US, German, and Canadian perspectives, we argue that the meaning attributed to these differences by diplomats and nongovernmental organizations does not justify the polarizing discourse of the Divided West. In addition, we argue that this discourse tends to obfuscate other important trends in the human rights world such as the growing assertiveness of non-Western powers.     

Sustaining Peace One Day at a Time: Inclusion,Transition Crises,and the Resilience of Social Contracts

ABSTRACT

This article argues that inclusion is a key driver of resilient social contracts and a foundation for sustaining peace. Drawing on case studies conducted under the Forging Resilient Social Contracts project and building on the literature on transitions from war to peace and authoritarianism to democracy, the theoretical framework links inclusion to peace sustainability. Interrogating how and why processes of inclusion matter, we argue that resilient social contracting is driven by elite inclusion, societal inclusion and their interactions. Four case-studies illustrate the arguments. Resilient social contracting, findings suggest, allows countries to weather crises and survive to ‘transition another day’.     

Die Selbstbehauptung und Selbstgefährdung des Friedens als Herrschaft des Rechts

Peace is conceivable only as a legal order. According to Hans Kelsen, a legal order is by its very nature a ‘coercive order’. Thus, peace and coercion are not mutually exclusive, but refer to each other in the concept of law. In this contribution, we elaborate and problematize the paradoxical relationship between coercion and peace in theoretical and historical perspective. For this, we differentiate between arbitrary force and legal enforcement in the context of world-order politics. While we argue in favor of peace through law enforcement, we also emphasize the element of arbitrariness in the concept and historical formation of law. This is to say that the stabilization of peace through legal coercion goes hand in hand with its simultaneous destabilization. The text unfolds this dilemma with reference to the evolution of the theory and practice of legitimizing the use of force from past to present. We argue that the dilemma cannot be overcome, but it can be mitigated through the creation of a rule of law, which allows for a reflexive treatment of the tension between peace and coercion.     

The Enlargement of the UN Security Council: Reflections from the Current Debate

In this article an attempt is made to take stock of recent developments (1997–2000) regarding the ongoing debate on the UN Security Council enlargement. The comprehensive plan for reform, known as the 'Razali Plan', its repercussions on the debate as well as the attitude of the membership of the UN are among the issues discussed here. We argue that the only realistic proposition for the time being is an expansion of the non-permanent membership of the Security Council, which could give some impetus to the process of comprehensive reform.     

The United Nations and genocide: Prevention,intervention, and prosecution

Conclusion The UN has to date not been effective in preventing genocide, and has had only a slightly better record in stopping it. There have been occasions when its interventions has occurred only after a genocide has taken place, and even then its major focus has been on facilitating the provision of aid by non-governmental agencies rather than on the task of tracking down the perpetrators and bringing them to justice. The exceptions of the ICTY and the ICTR are so stark, in this regard, that they only serve to throw light on the many other genocidal events where the UN has not initiated measures against those responsible for carrying them out. In short, as a body the UN has no—until very recently—even approached the fulfillment of its mandate as articulated in the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, and only rarely invoked Chapter VII of the UN Charter in order to intervene physically for the purpose of countering threats to peace or stopping conflict. Its strengths, so far as there have been any, have focused on balancing great power interests with demands to intervene more forcefully. While in the years up to 1989 this could be seen as a way of maintaining the peace (albeit over the broken bodies of victims of genocide in places such as Biafra, Cambodia, and East Timor), since then the UN has been required to act with greater resolve and purpose. The failures of Bosnia, Rwanda, and Kosovo must thus be seen as having been brought on by a transition from one international regime to another; from a Cold War regime in which the UN—s main role was one of preventing a third (and possibly nuclear) World War from breaking out, to a post-Cold War regime which appears increasingly to be characterized by the UN searching for a new role in which humanitarian issues are to assume a higher priority than they once did. Whether or not this will continue, of course, will depend on an extremely wide variety of circumstances—and at this time it is likely that only a few of these can accurately be anticipated.     

Peace and Conflict: Alternative Strategies of Governance and Conflict Resolution

This article examines the present discourse of conflict resolution and offers an alternative framework for analyzing the generic sources of conflict at the community, state, and interstate levels. In particular, we argue that although peace is a universal value, there are no universally best strategies to achieve it. This, however, does not mean that the path to peace is fundamentally different in every context. We claim that stable democratic political structures in general lead to peace both in the international and the domestic realms. As such, democratization does lead to peace, but the paths to stable democracy are context sensitive. Therefore, the success of efforts aimed at creating long-term peace, both among and within nations, depends on the extent to which, democratization incorporates the norms and values of the societies in question. The article begins with a brief overview of some of the problems associated with defining peace. We suggest that peace should be looked at as a universal value, as democracy has been in the recent past. We provide a more detailed theoretical assessment of the linkage between democracy and peace. Our general argument is illustrated in the South Asian, specifically the Indian, context.     

Multi-stakeholder public policy and governance in China: an analysis

In this article, public policy is put into a multi-stakeholder rather than adversarial perspective: we argue that there is a role for multi-stakeholder involvement in both the development and implementation of public policy; these are separate processes that can involve different patterns of stakeholder involvement (stakeholders have different skills and levels of interest in public policy) in either one or both the development and implementation phases. We need new models, approaches and examples of such multi-stakeholder public policy, and in this Special Issue, we focus on China, where such research is only slowly emerging. We present and analyse six papers that fall naturally into three categories: (1) corporate social responsiveness and societal relationships; (2) public affairs (particularly reputation management) and citizen involvement; and (3) public-management-oriented, data-based analyses. These articles, taken together, increase our understanding of multi-stakeholder research and practice, but equally as important, they give us insights into how Chinese public policy academics research and report public policy. This window into academic research and thinking offers us an opportunity to expand and deepen our understanding of public policy and its implications for public affairs in China. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do Alliances Deter Aggression? The Influence of Military Alliances on the Initiation of Militarized Interstate Disputes

Scholars have long debated the effects of military alliances on the likelihood of war, and no clear support has emerged for the argument that alliances improve the prospects for peace through effective deterrence nor that they kindle the flames of war. In this study, I argue that alliance commitments affect the probability that a potential challenger will initiate a militarized interstate dispute because alliances provide information about the likelihood that others will intervene in a potential conflict. Yet, different agreements provide different information. Alliance commitments that would require allies to intervene on behalf of potential target states reduce the probability that a militarized dispute will emerge, but alliance commitments promising offensive support to a potential challenger and alliances that promise nonintervention by outside powers increase the likelihood that a challenger will initiate a crisis. As diplomats have long understood, the specific content of international agreements helps to determine their effects.     

Prevention From Afar: Gendering Resilience and Sustaining Hope in Post-UNMIL Liberia

ABSTRACT

This article argues that resilience programmes in conflict-affected areas of limited statehood could be understood as much as an effort to equip vulnerable populations with tools to mitigate the effects of poverty, discrimination, lack of opportunities and manage gender inequalities than as an opportunity for the international community to prolong their interventions, consolidate local partnerships and sustain hope. We demonstrate our argument through an examination of the implementation in post-UNMIL Liberia of the ‘Spotlight Initiative’, a new multi-year multi-million programme of the European Union (EU) and the United Nations (UN) focused on the complete elimination of harmful practices and violence against women.