试析俄罗斯的金融工业集团

随着私有化的推行,俄罗斯出现了金融工业集团,它是激进经济改革的产物,具有自身的特点。在叶利钦执政时期,金融工业集团在其特有的政治和经济环境中急剧膨胀,成为经济和政治生活中的一支主导力量。然而,普京出任总统后,对其进行了规范与整顿,在与金融寡头的关系上表现出了鲜明的政治独立性。     

Italy and the Gulf Crisis: European and domestic dimensions

Much recent international press coverage of Spain's difficulties portrays a country rapidly approaching political, economic and social meltdown. Its economy is contracting, its unemployment rate is at unprecedented levels and its sovereign risk premium hovers at apparently unsustainable levels. Spain will undoubtedly require external financial help from its European partners, as well as more time and flexibility to achieve its fiscal targets. But it also has a number of strengths that are too often overlooked. Spending cuts and structural reforms are proceeding at a lively pace, unit labour costs are falling significantly, and exports and productivity are on the rise. In short, there is light at the end of the tunnel.     

试析越南的金融改革

自越共“六大”后,越南在经济改革和金融改革的推动下,经济增长保持了比较快的速度。本文认为越南的经济之所以能够取得比较大的成效,很大程度上得益于在经济改革的同时对金融部门进行了改革,特别是利率的自由化和汇率政策的调整,促使越南的银行规模有所扩大,效率相比改革前得到明显提高。因此本文的主题就是对越南的金融改革进行一个梳理,明白金融改革所带来的绩效以及改革中存在的问题,明确下一步改革的方向。     

‘Growth oriented’ corporate governance reform – can it solve Japan's performance puzzle?

Abstract

Recent governance reforms in Japan aim at promoting ‘the establishment of an environment that supports appropriate risk-taking by the senior management.’ The article evaluates the reforms on the basis of two questions: do the reforms tackle the right issues? And will they be effective? The Japanese economy faces indeed a performance puzzle. Despite Japan's strong efforts in the field of research and development, its excellent work force and abundant financial capital, the economy is performing poorly in terms of productivity. The performance puzzle seems to be closely related to the way large Japanese companies are governed, namely by boards filled with internally promoted lifetime employees. However, the correlation between board composition and performance is spurious. Both are influenced by a third factor, which manifests itself in the predominance of in-house careers. In-house careers determine the composition of boards and have, over the last twenty years, had a negative impact on economic performance. The governance reforms do not address the root of Japan's performance puzzle. They may nevertheless provide an important stimulus for redesigning the way Japanese corporations recruit, train and promote future leaders.     

A theory of reform consolidation in India: From crisis-induced reforms to strategic internationalization

ABSTRACT

I use the policy feedback literature to present an argument regarding the new politics of reform consolidation in India. India’s reform trajectory can be understood in terms of three distinct phases of reforms interspersed by periods of slowdown. In this narrative that goes beyond 1991, an analysis of struggles, opponents, and reversals become important, revealing a more contested pathway. In the 2000s India has moved beyond the initial, crisis-driven phase to a deeper external integration with the global economy and structural reform within. I call this phase an era of strategic internationalization. Reforms of 1985, 1991, and 1998–2000, in different ways, have begun to create new constituencies of support across India, which underlies the consolidation phase of reforms. During this long trajectory, the opponents of reforms could delay reforms but failed to reverse the direction of economic reforms. The purpose of this article is to provide a temporal framework that pays attention to mechanisms underlying different phases of reforms and how new supporters and opponents of reforms were created across different phases of the reform trajectory. Policies, the social bases of the Indian economy, and classes have been re-configured as a result.     

Contracts,Norms, and Political Economy: Sub-Saharan State Credibility and the Microeconomic Foundations of Developmental Taxation

The article focuses on the microeconomic foundations and effects of the fragile tax base in Sub-Saharan Africa, which have been insufficiently taken into account by the international financial institutions. Two vicious circles are analysed. The first addresses the political economy of states: their inability to redistribute revenues reinforces a lack of credibility, leading to a reluctance by the majority of the population to pay taxes. Instead, there is ongoing reliance on private interpersonal transfers. This is compounded by the way markets interlock, creating negative effects in terms of efficiency. This vicious circle is related to a second one, which stems from the nature of the social contracts that link citizens to the state, and which are rarely of the individualistic-voluntary type characteristic of developed states. States, therefore, are often not part of the reciprocity chain, which explains the failure of some reforms in Africa.     

贸易保护主义对中非贸易发展的影响

回顾世界经济发展的历史轨迹,我们会发现危机与保护总是如影随形。在当前席卷全球的金融危机背景下,世界各国纷纷出台各式各样的经济刺激计划,以期实现经济复苏。这些计划的内容往往会包括购买本国货、雇佣本地人、产业扶持政策、限制境外投资等涉及对本国产业和就业的保护。除此之外,更有提高关税、进口管制、技术性壁垒、反倾销、反补贴、保障措施等贸易保护措施出台。在贸易保护主义的趋势下,中非贸易发展将面临新的机遇和挑战。一方面,发达国家的贸易保护措施将使中非贸易发展存在新的增长空间;另一方面,在贸易保护主义的背景下,非洲国家也纷纷采取关税、非关税、区域性贸易壁垒保护国内产业的发展。这些都将给中非贸易发展带来挑战。     

国际金融危机对中国开放型经济的影响及中国的和平发展

2008年由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机使中国的外向型经济受到严峻考验。然而在危机中,中国开创了以开放促改革和发展的独特的经济增长道路,使对外经济关系上了一个新台阶,抓住了机遇,实现了新的发展。后金融危机时代中国面临着国内外经济环境的重大变化,开放型经济发展的难度增大。30年的改革开放,中国始终走的是和平发展的道路。今后,中国寻求的仍然是在竞争与合作中同世界共赢。     

The emergence of post-crisis regional financial institutions in Asia—with a little help from Europe

Faced with the negative impact of regional and global financial crises, Asian countries have established joint-solution mechanisms over the last two decades in order to better protect themselves from short-term outflows of capital and from currency speculation. Despite some progress being made in regional financial cooperation, especially by the countries of the ASEAN+3 grouping, the overall degree of financial integration within the region remains surprisingly low, however. This contrasts sharply with the keen interest of many Asian countries in gaining a stronger voice within the multinational finance institutions (MFIs), and especially within the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Unable to initiate major governance reforms of the MFIs, Asian countries have not only set up regional support liquidity arrangements but also their own multilateral development banks (MDBs). While the USA and to some extent Japan have tried to prevent a rebalancing of power within the global financial architecture, major European countries have actively supported these changes by becoming founding members of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Taking a New Institutional Economics (NIE) perspective, the paper aims to explain why some regional financial institutions are more attractive for Asian countries than others and why European countries are supporting Asia’s attempt to gain more weight in global financial governance (GFG)—and, thus, contribute to the acceleration of the power shift away from the USA toward emerging Asian economies in general and China in particular.     

俄罗斯资本外逃问题探析

俄罗斯的资本外逃问题引起了国际经济界和金融界的广泛关注。俄资本外逃的额度、方式、原因以及俄政府为防止资本外逃采取的措施，都是值得思考和研究的问题。俄资本外逃总额大大超出了20世纪90年代俄罗斯经济中的外国投资总额和外国对俄经济的援助额。只有俄罗斯政治经济形势趋向稳定，俄政府坚持改革、清除腐败、强化银行体系，才能逐步减少资本外逃规模，最终使外逃资本回归。     

Capital Account Liberalization,Financial Structure,and Access to Credit in Latin America

This article revisits the question of whether capital account liberalization improves access to credit by advancing and testing a theory of how the structure of the financial sector shapes the willingness and ability of banks and governments to repress the domestic financial sector. In a highly concentrated financial sector, banks and governments are more willing to reap the benefits of financial openness by suppressing liberalizing reforms to domestic financial policies, and they can also better coordinate with one another to stifle these reforms compared to when the financial sector is diffuse. Using a panel dataset of Latin American and Caribbean countries, I find that capital account liberalization leads to a decrease in loans to private firms and households and an increase in loans to governments and state-owned enterprises when the financial sector is highly concentrated. Only when the financial sector is diffuse does capital account liberalization lead to reforms in entry barriers, directed credit programs, and banking sector supervision, which extends to improved access to credit for private firms and households.     

俄罗斯政府职能演变下的预算制度改革

向市场经济的转轨使俄罗斯政府职能发生了根本性的转变,政府调控经济的工具也由计划经济时期的指令性计划、行政管制和所有权控制转变为公共预算。社会经济转型中出现的一系列社会矛盾和冲突,如社会公平、环境污染、医疗教育、社会保障等,都需要通过预算加以解决和保障。在这种情况下,实行预算制度改革,建立新的预算机制成为俄罗斯近年来政治经济改革的全新热点和中心。     

拉美国家国有企业改革及对中国的启示

20世纪 70年代中期以来 ,智利、墨西哥、阿根廷等国家对国有企业进行了改革 ,其特点是围绕私有化展开 ,各具特色 ,又不拘一格且不乏共性和同步性。这些国家的国有企业实施私有化改革后 ,曾取得了提高经济效益、减轻财政负担的积极效果 ,但也造成了大量失业、两极分化和金融动荡等负面影响 ,为经济的长期发展埋下隐患。其改革的经验和教训对中国当前的国有企业改革有一定的借鉴意义。     

IAI annual report, 1972

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) plays a substantial regulatory role in the international monetary and financial system. It has been assigned a formal regulatory role in a limited number of areas, such as obligations covering exchange rate policies. Yet the Fund has a broader informal regulatory role derived from the voluntary consent of its members, such as in surveillance over members’ financial sector policies and international payments imbalances. This regulatory role is unlike that of its member governments within their own jurisdictions. In order to guide the global economy in the wake of the 2007–09 crisis, the Fund's formal and informal regulation will have to be constantly nurtured and renewed via peer-review processes.     

全球金融危机对泰国银行业的影响与前瞻

一、1997年亚洲金融危机后泰国银行业的改革之路 1997年亚洲金融危机中,泰国饱受国际投机资金冲击之苦,特别是泰国银行为满足国内融资缺口而大肆 举借外债,进行外债内投、短借长投,币种和期限不匹配风除不断积聚,最终由于泰铢的突然大幅贬值而遭受巨大冲击.     

全球经济衰退对东南亚经济的影响及危机应对

美国金融危机演变为全球性经济衰退之后，对东南亚的虚拟与实体经济造成了沉重的打击。随着美国金融危机“溢出”效应的加强和全球经济形势的恶化，东南亚经济在2009年面对更为严峻的挑战与考验。东南亚各国在采取各种积极灵活的应对举措的同时，大力推进东盟区域内部的经济整合，加大泛区域甚至跨区域的经济合作，并积极争取外援，以最大限度地减少全球经济衰退对东南亚经济的冲击。     

Long-term outlook for China’s political reform

China’s post-1978 economic reform is generally acclaimed as success, for the Chinese economy has expanded nine-fold in a matter of 25 years and the country rose from the world’s 34th largest trading nation in 1978 to the third largest in 2004 ahead of Japan. Interestingly, the Chinese experiment is often described in the West as “economic reform without political reform”. This begets the question: how could a politically un-reformed system be able to deliver such an economic miracle? In reality, China has conducted, by its own standards, major political reforms since 1978. Though far short of the Western expectations, the Chinese experience since 1978 should better be described as “great economic reforms with lesser political reforms”, without which China’s economic success would be inconceivable. China’s “lesser political reforms” have reduced country’s opportunities for greater political change, thus alienating many reform-minded intellectuals. Nevertheless, it may also have helped China avert the possible economic and social upheavals which could have resulted from rushing too fast into a radically different economic and political system. There is a strongly held belief, especially among the more ‘ideological’ observers of Chinese affairs that unless there were a radical political reform, perhaps tantamount to a revolution, to rid China of its “oppressive” Communist Party, the Chinese system would inevitably collapse just like what had happened in the USSR and Eastern Europe. As the party has been in power, China had been predicted to face collapse in the aftermath of the Tiananmen crisis of 1989, the Soviet Union’s disintegration of 1990, the death of Deng Xiaoping in 1996, and the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the 2003 outbreak of SARS. Yet all these forecasts turned out to be wrong and the track record of the China doomsayers over the past 20 years is indeed poor. Will China become a democracy through its political reform in 20 years? Indeed, a full democracy could be the best scenario for China, the region and beyond, but it is difficult to give a definitive answer, which will, to a great extent, depend on how to achieve democracy in China, i.e. the costs/risks involved, as well as what kind of ultimate shape such a democracy will take. If full-fledged democratisation will take more time, the pressure for a more accountable government and more democratic society is growing, and this trend will continue with the rise of China’s middle class and civil society. Therefore, the most likely scenario for China in the coming two decades is that China will continue its own approach to political reform, and the relative successful experience of China’s economic reform may well set a pattern for China’s political reform in the years to come. As part of Europe’s general approach towards China’s political change, it is in Europe’s interest to assist, in line with the view of most Chinese, gradual reform rather than revolution or ‘regime change’, which could produce hugely negative consequences for China itself, Sino–European relations and European interests in China and even East Asia.     

试论国际货币基金组织（IMF）与世界贸易组织（WTO）的合作关系

国际货币金融体系的稳定直接关系到国际经济的稳定发展，而国际收支平衡对稳定国际货币金融体系至关重要，所以，围际收支平衡问题也是国际社会非常关心的问题。国际货币基金组织（IMF）的丁作重心是在国际货币和财政制度，世界贸易组织（WTO）的工作重心是在国际贸易，二者的目的都是为了保证全球贸易和国际收支的正常发展。由于WTO协议中规定，缔约方可以以保障国际收支为由实施进口限制，     

俄罗斯融资体制的缺陷及其教训

1998年金融危机后,俄罗斯融资体制得到一定程度上的规范和发展,但在融资规模、质量和效率等方面仍然存在许多缺陷。这些缺陷造成融资体制与实体经济相脱离,加剧了经济的脆弱性和不稳定性,引发了经济结构的不平衡。这些缺陷与其盲目推行金融自由化、微观经济主体的行为以及制度环境有着密切的联系。中国应吸取其教训,不断完善融资体制,为经济发展创造良好的金融环境。     

Bracing for Cold Peace. US-Russia Relations after Ukraine

Despite rising back to prominence during the global economic turmoil, the International Monetary Fund remains under severe pressure over its lack of legitimacy and effectiveness. It is surrounded by increasingly vibrant and potentially competing systems of regional financial arrangements. But while it is feared that regional arrangements can undermine the global financial order, they can also help buttress the multilateral institutions that are struggling to manage an increasingly complex global economy. The purpose of this article is to draw on trade, exploring the decades-long efforts to ensure compatibilities between regional trade agreements and the multilateral trading system, to offer lessons to financial policymakers.