A randomized test of initial and residual deterrence from directed patrols and use of license plate readers at crime hot spots

Objectives

To test the effects of short-term police patrol operations using license plate readers (LPRs) on crime and disorder at crime hot spots in Mesa, Arizona.

Methods

The study employed a randomized experimental design. For 15 successive 2-week periods, a four-officer squad conducted short daily operations to detect stolen and other vehicles of interest at randomly selected hot spot road segments at varying times of day. Based on random assignment, the unit operated with LPRs on some routes and conducted extensive manual checks of license plates on others. Using random effects panel models, we examined the impact of these operations on violent, property, drug, disorder, and auto theft offenses as measured by calls for service.

Results

Compared to control conditions with standard patrol strategies, the LPR locations had reductions in calls for drug offenses that lasted for at least several weeks beyond the intervention, while the non-LPR, manual check locations exhibited briefer reductions in calls regarding person offenses and auto theft. There were also indications of crime displacement associated with some offenses, particularly drug offenses.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that use of LPRs can reduce certain types of offenses at hot spots and that rotation of short-term LPR operations across hot spots may be an effective way for police agencies to employ small numbers of LPR devices. More generally, the results also provide some support for Sherman’s (1990) crackdown theory, which suggests that police can improve their effectiveness in preventing crime through frequent rotation of short-term crackdowns across targets, as it applies to hot spot policing.     

Overview of: “The Impact of Drug Market Pulling Levers Policing on Neighborhood Violence: An Evaluation of the High Point Drug Market Intervention”

Research Summary Pulling levers policing draws upon the focused deterrence framework, which has shown considerable promise when directed at youth, gun, and gang offenders. However, much less is known about the viability of pulling levers when applied to different contexts as well as to diverse groups of offenders. We examine the High Point (North Carolina) Drug Market Intervention (DMI), the first site to use pulling levers as a place-based policing approach to disrupt a series of open-air drug markets across the city. Eleven years of longitudinal data are analyzed by using difference-in-difference panel regression analyses combined with finite mixture estimation as a means to test for divergence in violent crime patterns. Several key, although inconsistent, findings are presented. First, we found a statistically significant reduction in violent offenses in specific high-crime places (i.e., high-trajectory census blocks) located across the different targeted neighborhoods compared with the remainder of High Point, and relative to comparable nontargeted areas. Second, the citywide violent crime rate actually increased after a series of interventions unfolded, which may suggest limitations with the approach. Finally, trend analyses indicated the strategy had different levels of violent crime impact throughout unique geographic contexts. Policy Implications Rather than arresting every offender identified as having participated in illicit drug trafficking across various geographic contexts within the city, officials in High Point decided to invite low-risk drug offenders to community notification sessions in order to change their perceived risk of punishment as well as to mobilize community members across the different targeted neighborhoods. The suggestive evidence of potential, although limited, violent crime impact illustrates that this type of policing strategy may hold considerable promise. This interpretation gains credence when considered with prior evaluations of the DMI approach that illustrated the potential for reducing drug-related crime and in light of reports of improved police–community relations. The inconsistent findings across all locations and the overall city increase in violent crime toward the end of the study period, however, raise several concerns when interpreting study results. Additionally, our findings suggest that further replications should include systematic problem-identification, process measures, and more precise research designs.     

Can “disciplined passion” overcome the cynical view? An empirical inquiry of evaluator influence on police crime prevention program outcomes

Objectives

Investigate the degree and nature of influence that researchers have in police crime prevention programs and whether a high degree of influence is associated with biased reporting of results.

Methods

Meta-analytic inquiry of experimental and quasi-experimental studies (n?=?42), drawn from four Campbell Collaboration systematic reviews of leading police crime prevention strategies: problem-oriented policing, ??hot spots?? policing, ??pulling levers?? policing, and street-level drug enforcement.

Results

Larger program effects are not associated with studies with higher involvement on the part of the evaluator (e.g., assisting in strategy design, monitoring implementation, overcoming implementation problems).

Conclusions

This study does not find support for the cynical view, which holds that researchers have a personal stake in the program or are pressured to report positive results. Importantly, the evaluator??s involvement in the implementation of the program may be a necessary condition of successfully executed police experiments in complex field settings.     

(Dis)order in the Court: Examining Neighborhood Disorder Prosecutions in Miami-Dade County

Abstract

This study examines race, space, perceptions of disorder, and nuisance crime prosecution in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Research has examined nuisance policing, yet little attention has been devoted to nuisance crime prosecutions, especially at the neighborhood level. Aggregating data on defendants arrested for nuisance offenses from 2012 to 2015 up to the neighborhood level, we estimate count models for pretrial detention, case acceptance, conviction, and sentencing outcomes in neighborhoods. We find two patterns of nuisance crime prosecution. Drug disorder prosecutions are concentrated in economically disadvantaged neighborhoods with large Black defendant populations, suggesting a more suppressive treatment of these “marginalized” spaces. In contrast, greater enforcement of homelessness and alcohol nuisance crimes in White non-Hispanic neighborhoods suggests disorder prosecutions are also used to impose order and containment in more economically “prime” spaces. These countervailing patterns highlight the spatial contingency of nuisance enforcement, whereby prosecutors differentially enforce nuisance crimes in prime and marginalized spaces.     

Will ‘broken windows policing’ work in Trinidad and Tobago? A critical perspective on zero tolerance and community policing in a multi-ethnic society

Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) is a multi-ethnic Caribbean nation currently experiencing problems with disorder and violent crime. In response, practitioners have considered the merits of introducing broken windows policing. This article examines the literature on zero tolerance policing, also known as ‘broken windows policing,’ and explores the dangers of potentially harmful interpretations of this approach, particularly in the context of racial and political conflict in a developing society. It also explores whether broken windows can be effective in T&T, where there is social unrest and declining public support for police. Based on prior research, it is suggested that broken windows policing, when incorporated with targeted problem-solving approaches, could be successful in reducing crime in the short-term. Several problem-solving strategies that were effective in New York City and other American cities are also recommended. It is suggested that community-oriented policing strategies designed to increase citizens’ trust and confidence in police be properly implemented before the adoption of any of these problem-solving strategies.     

On the Social Foundations for Crimmigration: Latino Threat and Support for Expanded Police Powers

Objectives

Because of the merging of immigration control and criminal justice, or “crimmigration,” state and local police increasingly drive interior immigration enforcement through the routine policing of crime. At the same time, growing evidence indicates that immigration is an ethnicity-coded issue that allows for the veiled expression of broader anti-Latino sentiments. Yet little research has examined whether public perceptions of either immigrants or Latinos influence support for police policies and practices that, in the context of crimmigration, may significantly shape immigration enforcement and, more broadly, may contribute to the subordination of Latinos. The current study addresses this research question.

Methods

The study draws on data from a recent nationally representative telephone survey and employs multivariate regression methods to evaluate whether perceptions of Latino economic and political threat are associated with support for granting police greater latitude in stopping, searching, and using force against suspects.

Results

This study provides the first evidence that, at least among Whites, perceived Latino threat is positively associated with support for expanding police investigative powers, especially the power to stop suspects based only on the way they look.

Conclusions

The results suggest that by increasing public support for aggressive policing, or, at minimum, by reducing opposition to discriminatory social controls such as police profiling, Latino threat perceptions may increase the political attractiveness and viability of crimmigration as a “solution” to the “Latino problem.”

     

The Impact of Field Court Attendance Notices on Property Crime in New South Wales,Australia

Objectives

This paper investigates the impact of Field Court Attendance Notices (FCANs) on rates of property crime in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. FCANs are used for relatively minor offenses, are issued ‘on the spot’, and provide an alternative to the time consuming process of arresting an alleged offender and taking them to the police station for processing. Despite their use in NSW for over 20 years, this study is the first to evaluate their impact on crime.

Methods

We use data provided by the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. We specify a general dynamic panel data model estimated via the Arellano and Bond (Rev Econ Stud 58:277–297, 1991) estimator, specifically the first-differenced twostep generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator.

Results

For property crime as a whole, in both the short- and long-run, we find no significant relationship between the use of FCANS and levels of offending. However, when offending rates are disaggregated into 11 sub-categories, we find that in the short-run an increase in the use of FCANs leads to statistically significant decreases in the rate of crime for five of the sub-categories offenses considered (break and enter dwelling; motor vehicle theft; steal from motor vehicle; steal from retail store and; steal from dwelling). The long-run results are largely consistent with the short-run results in terms of their signs and statistical significance, suggesting that the effects persist.

Conclusions

The empirical analysis presented in this paper suggests that the use of FCANs is an effective and potentially efficient policing strategy for a subset of property offenses, in that offenders can be processed at lower cost and long-run rates of certain crimes reduced.

     

Focused Deterrence Strategies and Crime Control

Research Summary

Focused deterrence strategies are increasingly being applied to prevent and control gang and group‐involved violence, overt drug markets, and individual repeat offenders. Our updated examination of the effects of focused deterrence strategies on crime followed the systematic review protocols and conventions of the Campbell Collaboration. Twenty‐four quasi‐experimental evaluations were identified in this systematic review. The results of our meta‐analysis demonstrate that focused deterrence strategies are associated with an overall statistically significant, moderate crime reduction effect. Nevertheless, program effect sizes varied by program type and were smaller for evaluations with more rigorous research designs.

Policy Implications

The available empirical evidence suggests these strategies generate noteworthy crime reduction impacts and should be part of a broader portfolio of crime reduction strategies available to policy makers and practitioners. Investments still need to be made, however, to strengthen the overall rigor of program evaluations and improve our understanding of key program activities associated with observed crime reduction impacts.     

Procedural Justice and Order Maintenance Policing: A Study of Inner‐City Young Men’s Perceptions of Police Legitimacy

There is tension between the core tenets of procedural justice and those of order maintenance policing. Research has shown that citizens’ perceptions of procedural justice influence their beliefs about police legitimacy, yet at the same time, some order maintenance policing efforts stress frequent stops of vehicles and persons for suspected disorderly behavior. These types of programs can threaten citizens’ perceptions of police legitimacy because the targeted offenses are minor and are often not well‐defined. Citizens stopped for low‐level offenses may view such stops as a form of harassment, as they may not believe they were doing anything to warrant police scrutiny. This paper examines young men’s self‐described experiences with this style of proactive policing. Study findings highlight that order maintenance policing strategies have negative implications for police legitimacy and crime control efforts via their potential to damage citizens’ views of procedural justice.     

The Gains of Greater Granularity: The Presence and Persistence of Problem Properties in Urban Neighborhoods

Objectives

This study applies the growing emphasis on micro-places to the analysis of addresses, assessing the presence and persistence of “problem properties” with elevated levels of crime and disorder. It evaluates what insights this additional detail offers beyond the analysis of neighborhoods and street segments.

Methods

We used over 2,000,000 geocoded emergency and non-emergency requests received by the City of Boston’s 911 and 311 systems from 2011–2013 to calculate six indices of violent crime, physical disorder, and social disorder for all addresses (n = 123,265). We linked addresses to their street segment (n = 13,767) and census tract (n = 178), creating a three-level hierarchy that enabled a series of multilevel Poisson hierarchical models.

Results

Less than 1% of addresses generated 25% of reports of crime and disorder. Across indices, 95–99% of variance was at the address level, though there was significant clustering at the street segment and neighborhood levels. Models with lag predictors found that levels of crime and disorder persisted across years for all outcomes at all three geographic levels, with stronger effects at higher geographic levels. Distinctively, ~15% of addresses generated crime or disorder in one year and not in the other.

Conclusions

The analysis suggests new opportunities for both the criminology of place and the management of public safety in considering addresses in conjunction with higher-order geographies. We explore directions for empirical work including the further experimentation with and evaluation of law enforcement policies targeting problem properties.

     

Violence in Urban Neighborhoods: A Longitudinal Study of Collective Efficacy and Violent Crime

Objectives

Cross-sectional studies consistently find that neighborhoods with higher levels of collective efficacy experience fewer social problems. Particularly robust is the relationship between collective efficacy and violent crime, which holds regardless of the socio-structural conditions of neighborhoods. Yet due to the limited availability of neighborhood panel data, the temporal relationship between neighborhood structure, collective efficacy and crime is less well understood.

Methods

In this paper, we provide an empirical test of the collective efficacy-crime association over time by bringing together multiple waves of survey and census data and counts of violent crime incident data collected across 148 neighborhoods in Brisbane, Australia. Utilizing three different longitudinal models that make different assumptions about the temporal nature of these relationships, we examine the reciprocal relationships between neighborhood features and collective efficacy with violent crime. We also consider the spatial embeddedness of these neighborhood characteristics and their association with collective efficacy and the concentration of violence longitudinally.

Results

Notably, our findings reveal no direct relationship between collective efficacy and violent crime over time. However, we find a strong reciprocal relationship between collective efficacy and disadvantage and between disadvantage and violence, indicating an indirect relationship between collective efficacy and violence.

Conclusions

The null direct effects for collective efficacy on crime in a longitudinal design suggest that this relationship may not be as straightforward as presumed in the literature. More longitudinal research is needed to understand the dynamics of disadvantage, collective efficacy, and violence in neighborhoods.

     

Left realism,local crime surveys and policing of racial minorities

The inner-city riots of 1980s Britain provoked an important set of debates in the progressive criminological literature about police accountability and the policing of racial minorities. Two main oppositional political strategies emerged. Following the pioneering work of Hall et al. (1978) some British criminologists supported a police monitoring strategy that proceeded on a case by case approach. In a more generalized approach, the strategy employed by the left realist school made use of the local crime survey in order to gather data on crime and policing practices that were used in public forum to make police accountable. In fulfilling this mandate, the first sweep of the Islington Crime Survey (ICS) provides an empirically grounded analysis of focused military-style policing in the Black community. These authors argue that differential policing practices, such as stop and search patterns, alienate Black youth from the police and contribute to the reduced flow of information from the community to the police vital for police effectiveness at crime control.The premise of this paper is that while both of these positions have been conceptually useful, they probably oversimplify the more complex social response of the Black community to focused policing methods. The paper begins with a critique ofPolicing The Crisis and suggests that it was this critique that primarily motivated the left realist response. In examining the scope of this response, the paper reviews two specific models of these relationships as proposed in various publications from the realist school. It is suggested that seven hypotheses can be deduced from these models, and that data from the first sweep of the ICS allow some assessment of the empirical support for these models.After examining the empirical evidence from the ICS, the paper concludes that while there is considerable empirical support for the analysis provided inThe Islington Crime Survey, the authors have probably not gone as far in their analysis as the data allow. A further analysis suggests that the response to military-style and focused policing, far from being uniform, is, in fact, bifurcated. In some instances, the very people who are the targets of biased policing practices demand more of the same. A model that depicts the complex nature of this response is provided.     

Does police patrol in large areas prevent crime? Revisiting the Kansas City Preventive Patrol Experiment

Research Summary

The Kansas City Preventive Patrol Experiment (KCPPE) was seen by its developers to have produced “consistent evidence of the lack of effects of any consequence on crime,” a conclusion that was to have a strong impact on assumptions about police patrol for almost half a century. We identified the original official crime data from the KCPPE, and reanalyzed outcomes focusing on a comparison of the “proactive” versus “control” beats (“reactive beats” were criticized because of violations of treatment integrity); examining broad categories of crime (to increase statistical power); and using count regression models. Our findings are not unequivocal, but point to modest impacts of police patrol on crime in police beats.

Policy Implications

Our findings suggest that lessons drawn for half a century from the KCPPE need to be revisited. The KCPPE does not show that police patrol in large areas has no influence on crime, and this finding is consistent with several more recent studies. At the same time, we note that the effects of patrol in the KCPPE using our analysis strategy, and those found in other studies of preventive patrol in larger areas, are about half that found in hot spots policing studies. This suggests that police agencies ideally should invest in focused hot spots policing initiatives. However, absent an ability to manage such initiatives, or the crime analysis capabilities to identify crime hot spots routinely, simpler preventive patrol schemes to utilize uncommitted patrol time can be seen as potentially effective in preventing crime.     

The power of policing partnerships: sustaining the gains

Objectives

Third Party Policing (TPP) involves partnerships between police and third parties where the legal powers of third parties are harnessed to prevent or control crime problems. This paper explores the characteristics and mechanisms of TPP as a crime control strategy, focusing on how the partnership approach in policing can help sustain crime control gains over the long run. Using the ABILITY Truancy Trial as an example, I examine how policing can contribute to long-term social change for high-risk young people living in poor-performing school districts and high-risk communities.

Methods

The ABILITY Trial includes 102 young truants randomly allocated to a control (business-as-usual) or an experimental condition. The experimental condition activates the key theoretical components of Third Party Policing (TPP): a partnership between police and participating schools that activates and escalates (where needed) jurisdictional truanting laws (the legal lever).

Results

The paper presents a theoretical discussion of TPP and uses the ABILITY Trial to highlight the way TPP works in practice. Baseline data are presented for the ABILITY Trial. Outcome results are not presented.

Conclusions

Third Party Policing partnerships rest on the capacity of police to build relationships with third parties who have a stake in the crime problem, who possess responsive regulation legal levers, and who have a clear mandate to offer long-term solutions and help sustain the crime control gains. Partnerships, I argue, offer long-term solutions for police because they activate latent mechanisms, building the capacity for third parties to both maintain short-term gains and sustain the crime control gains beyond the lifespan of the initial police intervention.     

Procedural justice and police legitimacy: a systematic review of the research evidence

Objectives

We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesize the published and unpublished empirical evidence on the impact of police-led interventions that use procedurally just dialogue focused on improving citizen perceptions of police legitimacy.

Methods

The systematic search included any public police intervention where there was a statement that the intervention involved police dialogue with citizens that either was aimed explicitly at improving police legitimacy, or used at least one core ingredient of procedural justice dialogue: police encouraging citizen participation, remaining neutral in their decision making, conveying trustworthy motives, or demonstrating dignity and respect throughout interactions. The studies included in our meta-analyses also had to include at least one direct outcome that measured legitimacy or procedural justice, or one outcome that is common in the legitimacy extant literature: citizen compliance, cooperation, confidence or satisfaction with police. We conducted separate meta-analyses, using random effects models, for each outcome.

Results

For every single one of our outcome measures, the effect of legitimacy policing was in a positive direction, and, for all but the legitimacy outcome, statistically significant. Notwithstanding the variability in the mode in which legitimacy policing is delivered (i.e., the study intervention) and the complexities around measurement of legitimacy outcomes, our review shows that the dialogue component of front-line police-led interventions is an important vehicle for promoting citizen satisfaction, confidence, compliance and cooperation with the police, and for enhancing perceptions of procedural justice.

Conclusions

In practical terms, our research shows the benefits of police using dialogue that adopts at least one of the principles of procedural justice as a component part of any type of police intervention, whether as part of routine police activity or as part of a defined police crime control program. Our review provides evidence that legitimacy policing is an important precursor for improving the capacity of policing to prevent and control crime.     

The irony of broken windows policing: A micro-place study of the relationship between disorder, focused police crackdowns and fear of crime

In their seminal “Broken Windows” article in Atlantic Monthly, J. Q. Wilson and G. L. Kelling (1982) suggested that police could more effectively fight crime by targeting minor offenses. They hypothesized that untended disorder increases fear of crime in a community, starting a chain of events that eventually leads to heightened levels of crime. By targeting disorder, police can thus circumvent this cycle of neighborhood decline (Skogan, 1990). This study aimed to improve knowledge of the relationship between disorder and fear of crime in the context of the broken windows hypothesis by using a micro-place level research design involving a police crackdown on disorder and minor crime at hot spots. The results of the current study suggest that perceived social disorder and observed levels of physical disorder have a strong impact on fear of crime. This confirms the relationship between disorder and fear hypothesized by the broken windows literature, and implies that police may be able to reduce fear of crime by reducing disorder. It was also found, however, that the police intervention itself significantly increased the probability of feeling unsafe. Accordingly, any fear reduction benefits gained by reducing disorder may be offset by the fact that the policing strategies employed simultaneously increase fear of crime. These findings suggest the importance of a careful focus on “how” broken windows policing programs are implemented. Such programs must be geared not only to reduce disorder, but also to prevent increases in citizen fear that accompany crackdowns and other intensive enforcement efforts associated with broken windows policing.     

The Moving Home Effect: A Quasi Experiment Assessing Effect of Home Location on the Offence Location

Objectives

This study aims to test whether the home location has a causal effect on the crime location. To accomplish this the study capitalizes on the natural experiment that occurs when offender??s move, and uses a unique metric, the distance between sequential offenses, to determine if when an offender moves the offense location changes.

Methods

Using a sample of over 40,000 custodial arrests from Syracuse, NY between 2003 and 2008, this quasi-experimental design uses t test??s of mean differences, and fixed effects regression modeling to determine if moving has a significant effect on the distance between sequential offenses.

Results

This study finds that when offenders move they tend to commit crimes in locations farther away from past offences than would be expected without moving. The effect is rather small though, both in absolute terms (an elasticity coefficient of 0.02), and in relation to the effect of other independent variables (such as the time in between offenses).

Conclusions

This finding suggests that the home has an impact on where an offender will choose to commit a crime, independent of offence, neighborhood, or offender characteristics. The effect is small though, suggesting other factors may play a larger role in influencing where offenders choose to commit crime.     

Compstat in Australia: An analysis of the spatial and temporal impact

One of the major trends in policing sweeping across democratic societies since the mid-1990s is a management approach commonly known as COMPSTAT. Despite widespread global adoption, empirical evaluation of the impact of COMPSTAT lags behind popular accounts of its crime control benefits.

Purpose

This article evaluates the crime control impact of Queensland Police Service's version of COMPSTAT known as “Operational Performance Reviews” (OPRs).

Method

A mixed model analytic approach was used to assess the role of OPRs in explaining spatial and temporal variations in crime patterns across Queensland's 29 police districts.

Results

Analysis of the impact of OPRs on reported crime (specifically assaults, robberies and unlawful entries) suggests major differences between police districts, and that some districts are driving overall statewide crime reductions, whilst others confound positive effects of implementation of OPRs in Queensland.

Conclusions

The results demonstrate that the crime drop experienced throughout Queensland found in prior research (Mazerolle et al., 2007) is most likely attributable to a small number of police districts. The implication of these findings is that a number of districts could (and should) be called-upon during maturation of Queensland's OPRs to reduce specific crime problems in their districts and facilitate ongoing crime reductions across the state.     

The possible ��backfire�� effects of hot spots policing: an experimental assessment of impacts on legitimacy, fear and collective efficacy

Objectives  

To examine the impacts of broken windows policing at crime hot spots on fear of crime, ratings of police legitimacy and reports of collective efficacy among residents of targeted hot spots.     

Predictable Policing: Measuring the Crime Control Benefits of Hotspots Policing at Bus Stops

Objectives

A fairly robust body of evidence suggests that hotspots policing is an effective crime prevention strategy. In this paper, we present contradictory evidence of a backfiring effect.

Methods

In a randomized controlled trial, aimed at reducing crime and disorder, London’s ‘hottest’ 102 bus-stops were targeted. Double patrol teams of Metropolitan Police Service uniformed officers visited the stops three times per shift (12:00–20:00), 5-times per week, for a duration of 15 min, over a 6 month period. Crucially, officers arrived and departed the bus stop on a bus, with significantly less time spent outside the bus stop setting. Outcomes were measured in terms of victim-generated crimes reported to the police and bus driver incident reports (DIRs), within targeted and catchment areas. We used adjusted Poisson-regression models to compare differences in pre- and post-treatment measures of outcomes and estimated-marginal-means to illustrate the treatment effect.

Results

DIRs went down significantly by 37 % (p = 0.07) in the near vicinity of the bus stops (50 m), by 40 % in the 100 m catchment area (p = 0.04) and marginally and non-significantly in the farthest catchment (10 %; p = 0.66), compared to control conditions. However, victim-generated crimes—the primary outcome measured in previous experiments—increased by 25 % (p = 0.10) in the near vicinity, by 23 % (p = 0.08) and 11 % (p ≤ 0.001) within the 100–150 m catchment areas, respectively.

Conclusions

These findings illustrate the role of bounded-rationality in everyday policing: reductions in crime are predicated on an elevated perceived risk-of-apprehension. Previous studies focused on clusters of addresses or public facilities, with police moving freely and unpredictably within the boundaries of the hotspot, but the patrol areas of officers in this experiment were limited to bus stops so offenders could anticipate their movements. Hotspots policing therefore backfires when offenders can systematically and accurately predict the temporal and spatial pattern of long-term targeting at a single location.