Confronting the Middle Income Trap: Insights from Small Latecomers

Middle income countries have always faced the challenge of how to move from commodity production to more knowledge-intensive activities. The current globalization process is turning this middle income dilemma into a possible middle income trap. To understand better how countries can achieve broad-based upgrading to confront the middle income trap, we develop an analytical framework that links the macroeconomic context with microeconomic behavior and mesoeconomic conditions contingent upon path dependency and global circumstances. This capabilities-based approach draws from structuralist and evolutionary economic thought and global value chain analysis. We use the approach to analyze the particular set of factors that have enabled or constrained upgrading efforts under a liberal trade and investment regime in five small latecomers: Chile, the Dominican Republic, Jordan, Ireland, and Singapore. The country analyses demonstrate that strategic, pro-active, and coherent government policies for capability advancement are a key determinant of upgrading in open economies, both at the country level and in the development of ??pockets of excellence.??     

Inflation targeting at the crossroads: Evidence from post-communist economies during the crisis

The objective of this paper is to assess if inflation targeting post-communist economies performed better, in terms of output growth, during the crisis than their non-inflation targeting counterparts. The paper also puts the issue in the context of the preconditions of inflation targeters to adopt this regime. 26 post-communist economies of Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States are analyzed during the ongoing economic crisis. Results suggest that inflation targeters of those countries performed worse than non-inflation targeters. The growth decline in inflation targeters post-communist economies has been estimated to be deeper by about four percentage points than that in non-inflation targeters. The study finds very limited role of the preconditions for growth decline. Only the lower amount of monetary financing of the budget may have contributed in inflation-targeting countries to have gone through the crisis better.     

Savings at the Periphery of Markets: Evidence from Forager-Farmers in the Bolivian Amazon

Abstract

We used survey and ethnographic data to study savings in a highly autarkic society of native Amazonians in Bolivia (Tsimane’). We equated savings with the amount of maize and rice in storage, area planted with plantains and manioc, and number of edible domesticated animals owned by a household or an adult. We found no large inter-annual change in savings possibly due to low income, impulsivity and a bundle of institutions and norms, such as borrowing, theft and reciprocity norms. The bundle attenuates the need for household formal savings at the periphery of markets.     

Children and armed conflict: looking at the future and learning from the past

Children are currently being recruited to an increasing extent by armed groups, assuming both ancillary and combat roles. Academic research on this phenomenon has grown in scope over the last few years. However, the current research lacks a comparative perspective. As a result, we presently have a very restricted perspective of the state of the art on the subject of child soldiering, making it difficult to recognise research areas that urgently require further investigation. The ambition of this article is twofold: first, to explore the existing state of child soldier studies across disciplines, and second, to encourage potential research by highlighting three relatively underdeveloped research areas.     

Estimation of Vulnerability to Poverty Using a Multilevel Longitudinal Model: Evidence from the Philippines

Using the panel data for the Philippines in 2003–2009, we estimate a three-level random coefficient model to measure household vulnerability and to decompose it into idiosyncratic and covariate components. We correct heterogeneity bias using Bell and Jones’s ‘within-between’ formulation. A majority of the poor and 18 per cent of the non-poor are found to be vulnerable to unobservable shocks, while both groups of households are more susceptible to idiosyncratic shocks than to covariate shocks. Adequate safety nets should be provided for vulnerable households that lack access to infrastructure, or are larger in size with more dependents and less-educated heads.     

Implementing Performance Budgeting at the State Level: Lessons Learned from New Jersey

This article considers barriers and strategies for implementing performance budgeting in real-time application by a state-level government. The lessons learned from the State of New Jersey’s implementation of the Governor’s Performance Budgeting Initiative offer guidelines for public and nonprofit sector organizations attempting similar efforts. Data was gathered through a series of focus groups with key executive-level administrators. Observations and recommendations for enhancing and reenergizing current performance budgeting strategies for a state or agency are suggested.     

Women's Wellbeing and the Sex Ratio at Birth: Some Suggestive Evidence from India

A declining sex ratio (SR) for a population has generally been diagnosed as an indicator of worsening female advantage, while a declining sex ratio at birth (SRB) – such as in the context of the Indian population over the recent past – has been diagnosed as being caused largely by the phenomenon of sex-selective foeticide. In this article, we examine the merits of a less sinister hypothesis in terms of which a secular improvement in women's wellbeing has led to a sex-neutral reduction in the rate of foetal wastage, and through that route, to a reduction in the SRB (and therefore in the overall SR of the population). We seek support for this hypothesis by examining evidence from India. We also discuss the implications of this line of reasoning for women's wellbeing, development and the significance of a declining sex ratio.     

相互学习借鉴共同应对挑战——在中欧政党高层论坛上的致辞

(2010年5月25日)尊敬的女士们、先生们:晚上好!中欧政党高层论坛圆满结束。与会代表围绕共同关心的重大问题,坦诚交流、深入探讨,增进了了解和互信,形成了许多重要共识。我谨代表我们党对本次论坛的成功举办表示热烈的祝贺!     

A Deeper Look at the Relationship between Political Knowledge and Political Participation: Evidence from Presidential and Legislative Elections in Taiwan

This study examines the effects of political knowledge on various types of political participation by focusing on five recent presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan. The empirical findings indicate that political knowledge has positive effects on some types of political participation but the effects of political knowledge on different types of political participation vary by the types of electoral systems and elections. Besides, although the interviewer's assessment of the respondent's level of information has been widely used as an effective indicator of political knowledge, this study shows that the interviewers tend to rate men and partisans as politically knowledgeable, which might lead to a biased estimate of political knowledge. Overall, this study provides insight into the relationship between political knowledge and political participation in Taiwan.