U.S. Misperceptions and China＇s Chances

China is rising. Will China catch up with or surpass the United States economically and militarily some day＇s？ There is no universally accepted answer. The author believes that as long as the United States makes no mistakes, it is unlikely China will catch up with the United States in the foreseeable future. However, based on history and current US policy there could be mistakes in areas such as anti-terrorism, China policy, immigration, etc. Any error on the part of the US will facilitate China＇s move to the fore.     

The Taiwan Issue:New Pattern of Interactions Between China and the United States

In the 1990s following the end of the Cold War, the Taiwan issue regained its prominence in Sino-American relations due to adjustments made by the United States in its Taiwan policy as well as political changes taken place in Taiwan. At the beginning of the 21st century, Sino-American relations underwent severe test by the tension across the Taiwan Strait. However, with the policy adjustments of the United States and China, the political reshuffle     

Sino-US Relations and the US Economic and Political Variables

Since coming to power in 2009, the Obama administration has ＇ prioritized domestic reconstruction, redesigning and rebalancingAmerica＇s foreign strategies in order to revitalize the United States＇ economic competitiveness. It has pushed forward social reforms and other major domestic policy agendas） In his second term, president Obama and his administration will continue to conceive of governance as ＂domestic affairs with the support of overseas performance.＂ In terms of Washingtoffs policy towards China, the United States＇ economic, political and social landscape will continue to bring about profound changes in China, while China has had an increasingly prominent impact on American society as well as the policy-decision environment faced by the United States government in its dealings with China.     

US Central Asia Diplomacy in the Post-Afghanistan War Era

The United States is supposed to complete its withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan before the end of 2014（mainly the combat forces, not necessarily all its forces）. With the time drawing near, a range of issues regarding the ties between the US and Central Asia loom. Just as the Afghanistan War has greatly changed American policy towards Central Asia, its ending will equally alter America＇s Central Asia policy.     

New Structures of American Foreign Strategy Since 9/11-Seeking Cooperation with Asia-Pacific Countries

When George W. Bush entered the White House in early 2001, American foreign policy was based on unilateral principles and favored disengagement from global conflict resolution. The United States declared it's decision to withdraw from the Kyoto protocol, refused to negotiate with North Korea, and, in particular, it's pursuit of a national ballistic missile defense system, in face of global opposition, further reinforced the position of its unilateralism. The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 came as a shock to the world. The United States suffered not only physical casualties, but felt a psychological blow as well. For the first time since the 1941 Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the United States had been attacked at home. Unlike Pearl Harbor, the attacks on September 11 targeted civilians and the cornerstones of the American way of life- their financial and government centers. The terrorist attacks forced the Bush administration to re-examine it approach to foreign policy. Seeking cooperation with other powers will be the new choice for American foreign strategy.     

Sino-American-Russian Triangle at the Turn of the Century

On the verge of the new century, the renewed triangular relations between China, the United States and Russia are of significance to the international relations as the world's three big powers have readjusted their ties in recent years.rather long time to come, the state that the United States is strong, Russia re-mains weak, and China is rising will remain unchanged by and large, and so willthe triangle. Readjustments of the Triangle Since the end of the Kosovo war, China, America and Russia, with differentstrategic considerations in mind, have stepped up restoration of mutual relations     

Are China and Russia Axis or Partners?

After experiencing many ups and downs in their relationship, China and Russia have forged a strategic partnership since the advent of the 21stcentury.While Russia's relations with the United States and the European Union have hit a rough patch, its ties with China are on an upward trend.Meanwhile, the United States and Europe are closely watching the two big neighbors in case of the event of a creation of an anti-Western "axis."Grounded in an analysis of the unique advantages of China-Russia relations, this paper argues that the two countries have established a high level of political trust and will continue to work in concert on all fronts.It also looks back at how China entered into alliances throughout its history and the lessons it has learned from those experiences.It emphasizes that China does not deem the establishment of exclusive alliances or political blocs as a foreign policy option.     

Coalitions and American Military Intervention *

As the only superpower in the international system, the United States uses its force and takes military intervention abroad more often than any other state. Researchers usually argue that the United States has strong unilateral incentives to make decisions and implement military intervention—the US is prone to use or threaten to use the force frequently and obstinately, ignoring the United Nations and international law. An investigation of major US military interventions in the post-Cold War era shows that the United States has often relied on temporary coalitions rather than persistent alliances in military and stability operations, although its decisions to use force are less constrained by the international community. The United States has motivations to recruit multinational military coalitions, such as avoiding the dilemma of collective action, reducing the burden of intervention and acclaiming the legitimacy of their interventions. Military coalitions have clearly-defined missions and flexible means, which provide convenience for the United States to take a leading role in military interventions.     

The Prospect of Sino-US Maritime Conflict and Cooperation

Oceans provide an important arena for the United States to implement its global strategies. Therefore, maintaining absolute control of oceans builds the core of US geopolitical strategies.1 Since the beginning of the 21st Century, with the rapid growth of China＇s sea power and intensification of disputes between China and its neighboring countries over maritime rights and interests, the United States has been making greater efforts to contain and deter China at sea. This inevitably exasperated the conflict between the two countries. However, the conflict between China and the United States at sea is different from the Cold War type of confrontation between the United States and former Soviet Union, because there still exist broad spaces for cooperation between the two countries.     

TREND OF INDIA＇S DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY

In recent years, India has actively pursued an all-directional diplomatic strategy, attaching much importance to developing its relations with major powers. In particular, due to the great efforts made by the United States to draw India over to its side, relations between India and the United States have witnessed a fast development, which has attracted worldwide attention. It seems that this trend of laying special emphasis by India on its relations with the United States will continue for a considerably long period. However, it is unlikely that India will make a fundamental change to its independent and non-aligned foreign policy. It is expected that India will continue to consolidate and develop its traditional friendly relations with Russia, steadily improve its relations with China and strengthen its relations with the European Union. In Asia, India will continue to actively promote its external relations and enhance its influence in the region through bilateral as well as multilateral channels.     

国际形势回顾与展望

2006年,国际格局调整加快,世界热点问题升温,大国协调进一步展开,中国外交硕果累累。2007年,世界将进入深度调整,国际形势总体趋向缓和,但局部紧张可能加剧,尤其是伊朗核问题有可能升级,中国外交则在面对新机遇的同时有可能遭遇更复杂的挑战。鉴此,《现代国际关系》编辑部于2007年1月6日举办“2007年国际大势前瞻”研讨会,特别邀请30多位京内外专家学者在总结、回顾2006年国际形势的基础上,着重对2007年国际形势及中国外交的变化趋势进行前瞻性分析。现将研讨会主要观点辑录如下,以期有助于读者更准确把握国际形势走向。     

Toward the Year 2000

To adapt and renew today's fraying international order, the West must partner more closely with democratic rising powers that remain ambivalent about existing international arrangements. There are four such ‘global swing states’: Brazil, India, Indonesia and Turkey. An effective engagement strategy will need to adjust the order's main pillars to enhance their appeal without transforming the fundamental character of the system in the process. It will need to influence what global swing states want through outreach to publics and private sectors. And it will need to make the case that all four can best manage China's rise by strengthening international rules of the road. If the West can enlarge the circle of countries that uphold the global order to include these rising democracies, the system that has long safeguarded international security and prosperity and promoted human rights will be able to endure.     

伊朗核问题的关键年

2006年,国际格局调整加快,世界热点问题升温,大国协调进一步展开,中国外交硕果累累。2007年,世界将进入深度调整,国际形势总体趋向缓和,但局部紧张可能加剧,尤其是伊朗核问题有可能升级,中国外交则在面对新机遇的同时有可能遭遇更复杂的挑战。鉴此,《现代国际关系》编辑部于2007年1月6日举办“2007年国际大势前瞻”研讨会,特别邀请30多位京内外专家学者在总结、回顾2006年国际形势的基础上,着重对2007年国际形势及中国外交的变化趋势进行前瞻性分析。现将研讨会主要观点辑录如下,以期有助于读者更准确把握国际形势走向。     

联合国成员国入会时间表

第57届联合国大会2002年9月10日一致通过决议,正式接纳瑞士联邦为联合国新的会员国。至此,联合国已拥有190个会员国。下面是以加入联合国时间为序排列的成员国名单,从中可以看出联合国接纳会员国的四个重要阶段,即创立时期、50年代中期、60年代初斯和90年代初期。 1945年创始国 阿根廷、澳大利亚、白俄罗斯、比利时、玻利维亚、巴西、加拿大、智利、中国、哥伦比亚、哥斯达黎加、古巴、捷克斯洛伐克(1993年起分成捷克共和国和斯洛伐克共和国)、丹麦、多米尼加、厄瓜多尔、埃及、萨尔瓦多、埃塞俄比亚、法国、希腊、危地马拉、海地、洪都拉斯、印度、伊朗、伊拉克、黎巴嫩、利比里亚、卢森堡、墨西哥、荷兰、新西兰、尼加拉瓜、挪威、巴拿马、巴拉圭、秘鲁、菲律宾、波兰、俄罗斯联邦(前苏联)、沙特阿拉伯、南非(前南非联邦)、叙利亚、土耳其、乌克兰、联合王国、美国、乌拉圭、委内瑞拉、南斯拉夫(现在的前南斯拉夫共和国);     

A New Year’s Message

We have just rung the Year of Tiger out and the Year of Rabbit in.As the spring of 2011 befalls,all look new and fresh with orioles singing and plants thriving.Hereby,we would like to extend our     

2000年俄罗斯外交回顾与展望

俄罗斯外交在2000年取得丰硕成果,普京务实现实、灵活进取的外交路线基本确立.今后的发展趋势是俄作为一支独立力量,不会融入西方世界;尽力搞好同西方的关系,寻求妥协,减少摩擦,避免对抗;推行全方位外交,重视发展同东方的关系;着力发展同独联体国家的关系,使之成为俄外交的依托、安全的屏障.     

俄罗斯的走强年

2006年,国际格局调整加快,世界热点问题升温,大国协调进一步展开,中国外交硕果累累。2007年,世界将进入深度调整,国际形势总体趋向缓和,但局部紧张可能加剧,尤其是伊朗核问题有可能升级,中国外交则在面对新机遇的同时有可能遭遇更复杂的挑战。鉴此,《现代国际关系》编辑部于2007年1月6日举办“2007年国际大势前瞻”研讨会,特别邀请30多位京内外专家学者在总结、回顾2006年国际形势的基础上,着重对2007年国际形势及中国外交的变化趋势进行前瞻性分析。现将研讨会主要观点辑录如下,以期有助于读者更准确把握国际形势走向。     

The Euro： A Ten Year Review

2009 marks the 10-year anniversary of the launch of the euro, a historic undertaking which drew a veil over centuries of conflict and set Europe on an unprecedented path of cooperation and integration. The euro is an important and tangible manifestation of this community of values. While overall very successful, the first decade of the euro reveals a number of shortcomings and challenges which call for improved coordination of economic policies, further structural reforms, and political determination by member states to achieve greater integration. There is potential therefore to reap further benefit from the euro.     

中美关系:平稳过渡的一年

文章认为,2005年的中美关系走势显示了“9·11”事件后中美关系新阶段的特点:中美关系的实质没变,两国的共同利益没有减少,合作的领域也没有缩小,但两国之间的问题和麻烦却有所增加。作者最后还在认识层面提出了自己的观点:在对中美关系的继续稳定和发展抱有信心的同时,也要对两国关系中可能出现的种种问题做好充分的准备。