Neutralising Punitive Asylum Seeker Policies: An Analysis of Australian News Media During the 2013 Federal Election Campaign

ABSTRACT

For almost two decades, negative portrayals of asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat have been dominant within political and media discourses. In particular, asylum seekers have been portrayed as a “dangerous other”—as an illegal group that the public ought to fear and from which they require protection—rather than as a vulnerable group who require protection themselves. This article examines some of the ways in which these discourses make possible public support for punitive policies relating to the treatment of asylum seekers (particularly boat arrivals)—policies that violate many of the human rights instruments to which Australia is a signatory. Specifically, this paper uses Sykes and Matza’s (1957) work on “Techniques of Neutralisation”, which considers the way in which those who knowingly commit illegal, immoral, or harmful acts neutralise their behaviour and disavow its harmful effects, to analyse these dynamics. In particular, it focuses on the political and media discourses regarding asylum seeking produced during the 2013 Australian federal election campaign. The paper argues that these theoretical tools can be effectively applied to this case study and provide some insight into the ongoing punitive treatment of asylum seekers in Australia.     

Queensland's Role in the 2019 Australian Federal Election: A case study of regional difference

This article explores the role of Queensland voters in the 2019 Australian federal election. The article identifies five key elements of a Queensland political culture before offering evidence that the Liberal-National Coalition's exceedingly strong performance in Queensland in 2019 was not a single aberration, but one of a long and continuing pattern of electoral nonconformity. The article also argues Queensland's complex regional diversity necessitates analysis across not one or two constituencies but via six geographically, economically and demographically diverse regions. Third, the article argues the unexpectedly large swing against the Australian Labor Party in Queensland in 2019 was fuelled, overwhelmingly, by five factors, each consistent with the five core elements of a Queensland political culture.     

The 2007 Australian Federal Election: The Story of Labor's Return from the Electoral Wilderness

In an era of continuous campaigning, elections are seldom won in the final weeks of the formal campaign period. The 2007 Australian federal election saw voters dispatch a Liberal Party and Nationals Coalition government that had presided over a buoyant economy, and return the Australian Labor Party from the electoral wilderness it had occupied since 1996. The explanation of this revival in Labor's stocks can be traced to the Wheat Board scandal, the unpopularity of the labour market deregulation, and to a series of other political tribulations that the fourth Howard Government faced during 2005 and 2006. Initially their impact was masked by the failure of Labor's parliamentary leadership. But when caucus elected Kevin Rudd and freed him to position Labor as offering fresh ideas and a safe pair of hands, Labor seized a lead in the opinion polls and retained it throughout 2007. Rudd's tactical leadership of his party proved critical. This article describes how the 2007 campaign unfolded and the pattern of events which saw a refashioned ALP win an eighteen‐seat lower house majority.     

Ministerial Consultants and Privatisation: Australian Federal Government 1985–88

The “turn to the market” by the Hawke Government (1983–91) began with the floating of the dollar and the de‐regulation of the banks, and later involved the privatisation of government assets. Though presented as a coherent re‐thinking of Labor ideology, an examination of the events leading to privatisation reveals an episodic process that was not inevitable. The genesis of the economic statement of May 1987, which first delineated “asset sales” and signalled later privatisations, shows that individuals could act as “policy entrepreneurs” and bring unexpected solutions to re‐defined problems. Important was David Block, one of a unique cadre of policy advisers – the “ministerial consultants” established in 1984 by the Labor government as part of its plan to control the public service, and all but abolished by John Howard in 1996. Though Block was not a typical consultant, his case shows how market‐oriented ideas entered government through new channels at that time, and how a political “reform” had consequences in the economy that were unintended by the early reformers. Ministerial consultants have received little attention hitherto but their case illuminates some of the dramatic policy shifts of the government and shows that a discourse (in this case about “administrative reform”) was reformulated to overturn old values about the role of government in the economy.     

Health Policy Prior to the German Federal Election of 2013: The Party Political Marginalisation of a Previously Central Topic in Election Campaigns

The discussion on how to finance the Statutory Health Insurance (SHI) repeatedly appeared prominently in the political discussions of previous election campaigns for the German Bundestag. However, in 2013 this topic remained only marginal. The recent marginalisation of health policy is closely linked to the political processes and results inherent to a health ministry having the FDP at its helm from 2009 to 2013. The effects of several fundamental reforms introduced during this period closely follow the disputed market orientation of the liberal democratic thought and rendered the corresponding results. However, this was hardly perceived in public and the political discussion was distracted from health policy. The most ambitious project of the FDP and of parts of the Christian parties was the introduction of a health premium. Actually the CSU opposed its realisation. Other policies even contrasted the goals of the FDP.     

A Third Term for a Popular Chancellor: An Analysis of Voting Behaviour in the 2013 German Federal Election

The 2013 federal election led to a considerable change in the German party system. Yet Chancellor Merkel secured a third term, once again, as chancellor of a grand coalition. This analysis shows that Angela Merkel was much more popular than her SPD challenger, Peer Steinbrück. Moreover, she was perceived as somewhat more representative of the values and policies of the party she stood for than her competitor. What is more, the candidates' perceived representativeness conditioned the impact of candidate preferences on vote choice in complex ways. As a result, support for Angela Merkel was likely to translate into votes for the CDU/CSU, whereas support for Peer Steinbrück did not easily earn SPD votes. The article thus concludes that, in contrast to her challenger, Angela Merkel was an electoral asset for her party. The CDU/CSU's impressive result in the 2013 federal outcome can thus be interpreted, to some extent, as reflecting its leader's popularity.     

Conscience Voting in the Australian Federal Parliament*

This article examines the merits of conscience voting and the historical record of parties imposing discipline when matters of individual conscience are raised in the Australian federal parliament. It examines three examples of conscience voting in which legislators were freed from their normal obligation to vote as their party requires. These involved bills to do with euthanasia, research involving embryonic stem cells, and the abortion drug RU486 — all issues posing parliamentarians with difficult questions of personal morality and highlighting the contentious intersection between religion and politics. Voting records on these bills are examined in detail as is the interaction, once party discipline was removed, between the voting decision and residual party loyalty, gender and religious affiliation. Although parties allowed legislators to vote according to their conscience, party differences remained apparent. However, gender and religious variables did challenge majority party opinion. Conscience voting remains the exception rather than the rule in the Australian parliament. Party leaders on both sides prefer predictable outcomes and to retain executive control of the legislative process.     

Forecasting the 2013 German Bundestag Election Using Many Polls and Historical Election Results

This article reports on an attempt to forecast the outcome of the 2013 election to the German Bundestag. In contrast to the predominant academic approach to forecast incumbent vote shares from measures of government popularity, economic conditions and other fundamental variables, we entirely relied on data from published trial heat polls. Opposite to common practice in the news media, we did not take isolated polls as election forecasts in their own right. Instead, we used historical data to assess empirically the relationship between polls and election outcomes, and combined extrapolations from current polls in a Bayesian manner. The forecast was published one month ahead of the election. The retrospective evaluation of our method was added after the election. While our method is parsimonious and provides a large lead time, the performance at the 2013 election was underwhelming. We offer additional suggestions how the approach can be improved in future scenarios.     

Understanding Political Knowledge and its Influence on Voting Preferences in the 2007 Federal Election

In this article we propose a model to explain how voters’ perceptions of their ideological proximity to a party affect their propensity to vote for that party. We argue that political knowledge plays a crucial moderating role in the relationship between party proximity and voting propensity. It is necessary, however, to distinguish between institutional knowledge (information about the political system) and party knowledge (information about the parties’ left–right positions). An analysis of survey data from the 2007 Swiss federal elections supports our main hypothesis that party knowledge enhances the link between party proximity and voting propensity. Institutional knowledge may have additional influence, but clear evidence for this effect was obtained only for propensities to vote for the Swiss People's Party (SVP). Overall, the impact of political knowledge was found to be substantial, even after controlling for the outstanding influence of party identification and other predictors of voting propensities.     

A Predictive Test of Voters' Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 German Bundestag Election

Do voters judge their national economy relative to economic performance abroad? In 2013 we took advantage of the German Bundestag election to test this hypothesis predictively. Nearly two months prior to the election, we published an election forecast relying on a theory-driven empirical model of election outcomes that draws on previous election outcomes; characteristics of the government and of voters; and, most originally, the relative economic performance of Germany (‘benchmarked' growth) in comparison to the three other most important economies in Europe – France, the UK and Italy. Our forecast put the outgoing coalition government of CDU/CSU and FDP at 47.05 per cent of the popular vote deviating from the actual outcome of 46.3 by 0.75 points. This makes our forecast one of the most accurate in this election cycle. Despite one-and-a-half months of lead time, our forecast performed on par or slightly better than the last poll results issued only two days before the election.     

Leaders,the Economy or Iraq? Explaining Voting in the 2004 Australian Election*

Following the 2001 “border security” election, it was assumed that the 2004 federal election would revert to the traditional campaign battleground of socio‐economic issues. This prediction proved to be only partly true, and while economic and social issues did figure in the election campaign, much more important were popular perceptions of the leaders. Indirectly, the Iraq War also had some impact, mediated through evaluations of John Howard. Analysis of leader effects suggests that Mark Latham was not the electoral liability for Labor that many have subsequently claimed. Ultimately, the Coalition won the election because they had a highly popular leader who had presided over a period of sustained economic growth. The election emphasizes the central role that the party leaders play in modern election campaigns.     

When Valence Crushes: Explaining the Electoral Failure of the German FDP in the 2013 Election

This paper examines why the German Free Democratic Party (FDP) failed to gain electoral success in 2013 despite being well positioned in terms of left–right ideology. Indeed, its vote share dropped from its highest ever point in 2009 (14.6 per cent of the national vote) to its lowest ever in 2013 (4.8 per cent of the vote). The paper shows that the FDP’s valence dropped dramatically between 2009 and 2013. In addition, voting simulations show that the FDP was positioned close to its vote-maximising positions on policy and ideology. However, given the FDP’s extremely low valence it could not have taken any set of policy positions that would have significantly increased its vote share.     

Flesh of the Same Flesh: A Study of Voters for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the 2017 Federal Election

Using the 2017 post-election German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), this article examines the voters for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the 2017 German federal election. We show that AfD voters in 2017 were truly ‘flesh of the same flesh’ of the mainstream German political parties, with the AfD drawing its voters from across the political party spectrum as well as from previous non-voters in 2013. In contrast to previous scholarship, we find that in most respects AfD voters in 2017 did not differ demographically from voters for all other parties, be that in terms of gender, education, employment status, and union membership. Furthermore, we find that AfD voters were not driven by anxiety about their own economic situation: they are no ‘losers of globalisation.’ Instead, AfD voters in 2017 were driven solely by two factors: their attitudes towards immigrants/refugees and anti-establishment sentiment/satisfaction with democracy in Germany.