The New Research on Civil Wars: Does It Help Us Understand the Colombian Conflict?

The article synthesizes contributions from the recent comparative research on civil war and the case‐specific literature on Colombia to argue that too often, commentators on this conflict overlook some of its key dimensions. A comprehensive analysis shows that no fewer than six factors are fueling violent conflict in Colombia: economic forces, state weakness, landscape, U.S. policies, long‐duration and spin‐off violence, and malicious opportunism by non‐combatants. The first three are the ones that matter most. The case made here is that when analysts disregard the range and interrelat‐edness of the factors involved, the result is a distortion of reality and a tendency to support policies that will not enhance the prospects for peace.     

从俄格冲突到国际金融危机的“危机政治经济学”——俄罗斯与大国关系的变迁及其对中国的启示

2008年发生的俄格军事冲突对俄罗斯与西方大国关系产生了重大影响.同一年金融危机的发生,也使得俄罗斯与西方关系受到巨大考验.这两场看似没有联系的重大危机都表现出俄罗斯在危机形势下不甘示弱的态度,也折射出俄罗斯与西方国家之间合作与竞争的复杂状况.所谓"危机政治经济学"强调的是,无论是摆脱军事冲突,还是金融海啸式的危机,大国间的合作将是一个决定性的因素.     

The Impact of External Factors on Regime Transition: Lessons from the Russian Regions

While many studies have examined the external dimensions of democratization, the role of external anti-democratic factors remains unaddressed. Using an original dataset to analyze the presence and impact of external anti-democratic factors, this article aims to untangle the international dimensions of regime transition by singling out foreign trade. International post-Soviet trade links' impact on subnational political regimes in Russia is analyzed. Trade links between post-Soviet states and their regions are longstanding, dating back to the Soviet or even the tsarist period. The authors hypothesize that this variable was an important factor in regime transition in Russia's regions. The findings have wider implications for area studies and theoretical studies of democratization and regime transition.     

Writing Islamic Constitutions: Lessons from Pakistan

Muslim-majority countries often face the question of how to reconcile the place and role of religion within the framework of the nation state and a modern westernised system of constitutional ordering. And few states have wrangled with the politics of constitutionalising religion as profoundly and persistently as the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. This paper argues that insights drawn from Pakistan are pertinent as much for contemporary debates on Islam within many Muslim-majority countries as they are for wider debates on religion and politics in the modern period. It argues that when contemplating the constitutionalisation of Islam and Islamic provisions: the design and jurisdiction of the courts matter; it may be better to achieve a workable political compromise between competing parties on religious matters than to stall or strive for the realisation of some ideal; the constitution should be free of any sectarian bias; and constitution-makers must take more structural matters such as the separation of powers seriously when considering discussions on religion and politics.     

Conflict Management and Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: The Importance of Capturing the "right Moment"

Professor Jacob Bercovitch of the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New Zealand, and S. Ayse Kadayifci from the American University in Washington D.C., argue that the current conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians can be best understood as an example of a complex intractable conflict. Such conflicts are usually managed through the intervention of mediators at the "right moment," otherwise they risk failure and further conflict escalation. In contrast to the literature on "ripe moments," the authors argue that it is possible to have more then one right moment in the life cycle of a conflict, which can even be created by mediators. In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there was such a moment in 1993, which was subsequently lost. In the following article, the authors analyze the Oslo Process from this "ripe moment" perspective, and suggest an integrated third party approach to create a perception amongst the parties involved that a moment of opportunity is at hand.     

中亚国家经济转型的政治-制度基础:来自中国的经验

中亚地区由于地理上和经济上的重要性,以及其尚未完成的转型进程,日益成为国际上高度关注的焦点.本文的目的是详细说明经济转型过程中一个牢靠的政治-制度基础(politico-institutional foundation)是必不可少的;本文还要探讨中亚国家建立这样一个基础的方法.出于相似政治方面的条件,本文把表现出色的中国作为中亚国家发展方向的范例.     

The Iran-Israel Conflict: An Ultra-Ideological Explanation

Iran's enmity with Israel is ideological in the first place and strategic in the second. Iran intends through anti-Israel actions and messaging to internally mobilize its populace and, externally, to claim the leadership of the Muslim world and strike a balance against a regional nuclear power. This article uses a critique based on constructivism and realism to reveal how Iran's confrontation with Israel has evolved historically from “identity-ideological” to “politico-strategic.” I argue that Iran's adoption of this approach without taking its internal and external capacities into consideration has ironically bolstered the Israeli far right, increased global sympathies for Israel, escalated Iranophobia, aligned conservative Arab states with Israel, and marginalized the issue of Palestine. To preserve its national interests and regional security, Iran needs to overcome this politico-historical stage and replace conflict with competition.     

Reconstruction and reparations: Lessons from China and the Pan-African world

Abstract

This article addresses the role of the university and institutions of higher learning in carrying out the mandate of the World Conference against Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia and Related Intolerance (WCAR), held in Durban, South Africa in 2001. The active contribution of the university is anticipated in Article 98 of the Programme of Action published in the Report of the World Conference (2001), which clearly states:

We emphasize the importance and necessity of teaching about the facts and truth of the history of humankind from antiquity to the recent past, as well as of teaching about the facts and truth of the history, causes, nature and consequences of racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerance, with a view to achieving a comprehensive and objective cognizance of the tragedies of the past.     

Democratic control of the armed forces: Lessons from East Asia

How and why do countries democratize? Why does the military intervene in politics? The development of a country from an authoritarian regime to a system of democratic governance is a process which has fascinated scholars and politicians alike. In the following article, Fidel V.Ramos, former president of the Philippines (1992–1998) and president of the Ramos Peace and Development Foundation, Inc., provides his own perspective on the role of the military in shaping and protecting a society, delving into his own experiences as a former army general and defense secretary. He also examines the rationale behind, and current status of, East Asian countries in the process of transformation from a military regime to a democratically governed society.     

Commonwealth Economics in Perspective: Lessons from the East Asian Model

Different approaches to capitalism in the former Soviet Union are discussed in light of recent reassessments of the East Asian economic experience. A reinterpretation of theories of late-development and of economic learning is proposed to explain the focus of economists on post-Soviet/East Asian commonalities in the areas of state-led development policies and group-oriented management techniques. The paper draws on the author's extensive interviews conducted at academic institutes in Moscow and in the Russian Far East studying the Pacific Rim economies, as well as official sources and literature, Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: P20, P52.     

One Swallow Does Not Make Spring: A Critical Juncture Perspective on the EU Sanctions in Response to the Arab Spring

This article examines to what extent the Arab Spring constitutes a critical juncture – a major turning point – for the EU’s sanctions policy towards Egypt, Libya, Syria and Tunisia. Based on a multidimensional critical juncture operationalization, we find that the Arab Spring only constitutes such a turning point for the EU’s sanctions policy towards Syria. Both the level and nature of measures differ substantially from previous years. By contrast, the EU’s sanctions practice towards Libya, Egypt and Tunisia shows more resilience. More generally, changes in the nature of the measures are prominent, whereas changes in the level of the policy instruments and in underlying norms and goals are limited.     

Electoral Gender Quotas: Lessons from Argentina and Chile

This comparative case study examines the role of electoral quotas for increasing women's representation in Argentina and Chile. The Central hypothesis is that gender quotas in favourable electoral systems increase women's representation, and a corollary hypothesis is that more women in politics should also promote gender issues in public policy. Since the transitions to democratic regimes, many Argentine and Chilean women still promote gender issues, such as gender quotas, but the different transitions shaped the opportunity space for gender issues in politics. Thus, gender quotas can be effective, but the types of electoral and quota systems are important defining conditions and improvements in gender issues are not guaranteed.     

The European sea: Lessons from the Baltic Sea region for security and cooperation in the European neighborhood

Abstract

This study aims to assess the development of regional cooperation in the Baltic Sea area through an analysis of regional security interdependence, and to develop the lessons of this regional experience for application to the wider European framework of security and cooperation. The analysis of Baltic Sea regional security and cooperation is divided into three phases: the first looks at 1989 to the early 1990s; the second covers the period from the early 1990s to the enlargements in 2004; and the third lays out a scenario for the post-enlargement period. Subsequently, I discuss what this regional experience might be able to offer to Europe. Here, attention is given to the EU's relations with its neighbors, with particular reference to Russia.