A Changing Mediterranean: Regional Organisations and North Africa during the Arab Spring

This article discusses the role played by the European Union, African Union and Arab League in the recent revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. It focuses in particular on the use and impact of political and economic conditionality, the decision-making processes within each organisation and the inter-regional forums created to deal with the crisis. The analysis acknowledges the increasingly active and vocal role played by regional organisations in the so-called ‘Arab spring’, but it highlights not just that they had few legal powers to intervene in these crises, but also that they seemed very reluctant to use any form of political or economic conditionality. It also reveals that the main purpose of inter-regional forums was arguably not to generate consensus internationally but rather to manage dissent. As such, the article encourages a reflection on the specific challenges and opportunities that North Africa and the Mediterranean region pose to regional conflict management.     

Arab Spring constitution-making: polarization,exclusion, and constraints

What determines the balance that democratizing constitutions strike between majority empowerment and individual rights? Some constitutions deliberately handicap state power to forestall threats to liberty, while others try to empower the government to hold the country together. We answer this question in the context of post-Arab Spring constitution-making, hypothesizing a U-shaped relationship between polarization among politically significant factions and net majority-empowering provisions in constitutions of new democracies, a relationship mediated by breadth of inclusion in the constitutional drafting process. We test the hypothesis through a controlled case comparison of Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, the three Arab-majority countries in which protestors successfully toppled authoritarian regimes.     

Regional institutions: State withering or consolidation. the case of the Arab summits

The European Commission has spelled out its policy ambition for EU energy cooperation with the southern neighbourhood with plans for the establishment of an ‘Energy Community’. Its communications make clear that an Energy Community should be based on regulatory convergence with the EU acquis communautaire, much in the same vein as the existing institution carrying the same name; the Energy Community with Southeast Europe. It is puzzling that the Commission insists on repackaging this enlargement concept in a region with very different types of relationships vis-à-vis the EU, especially when considering the lukewarm position of key stakeholders in the field. According to them, any attempt to introduce a political integration model in this highly sensitive issue area in the politically fragmented MENA region might run the risk of hurting the incremental technical integration process that has slowly emerged over the past few years.     

The Arab Spring and the Saudi-Led Counterrevolution

The author contends that the Arab Spring has provided an opening for the Gulf Cooperation Council as a group and for Saudi Arabia as a long-time aspiring leader of the Arab world to try to expand their regional influence and global profile. An already weakened Arab state system, he argues, has been once again weakened by the sweeping wave of rebellion.     

也门安全形势严峻的原因及趋势

21309年12月25日,美国境内发生圣诞节“炸机未遂事件”,“阿拉伯半岛基地组织”宣称对此负责。该组织扬言将对西方发起更多袭击,把异教徒赶出阿拉伯半岛,弱化和摧毁也门萨利赫政府,在也门建立“基地”组织安全基地,袭击美国和沙特等国家。今年1月19日,联合国制裁委员会把“阿拉伯半岛基地组织”列入国际恐怖组织黑名单。美国和也门政府加强了反恐力度,全球最贫穷落后的国家之一——也门成为反恐热点,引起国际社会的普遍关注。     

Jordan: Between the Arab Spring and the Gulf Cooperation Council

The Arab Spring has fundamentally shifted the strategic balance in the Middle East. As all sides rush to ensure that their interests will be secured, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has emerged as a key battleground between those who would like to see a more democratic region, and those who would like to maintain economic stability. On one side of this debate is the Gulf Cooperation Council, led by Saudi Arabia, that views democratic reform as a threat to economic stability. On the other side are the forces of the Arab Spring, which have called for political reform in states such as Egypt, Syria, and Libya, even if these reforms come at the expense of stability. This article examines the various forces, both domestic and international, that are attempting to influence Jordan, and through it, the balance of power in the Arab World.     

Turkey: Security,State and Society in Troubled Times

Abstract

The end of the Cold War has allowed for a burgeoning of the security agendas to include a range of softer threats such as economic and social conditions and environmental damage alongside the more traditional military considerations. The Turkish national discourse, however, has largely diverged from these global trends with militaristic perspectives still dominating and guiding the Turkish security agendas, almost exclusively, throughout the 1990s. This article argues that the roots of such enduring centrality of security, as understood and interpreted along the traditional lines, lie in the variables of history and ideology and the way in which these variables are reflected in modern Turkish society and identity.     

Predicting Revolt: Fragility Indexes and the Level of Violence and Instability in the Arab Spring

This article is one of the first to systematically assess the ability of state fragility measures to predict violent protests and adverse regime changes in countries. We focus on the Arab Spring as an example of a situation that such measures ought to predict. Through a variety of analyses, we find that none of the measures are predictive. We then create a simple model using the literature of protest and revolts to predict both the level of violence and the extent of regime change in the Arab Spring countries. This simpler model does a better job of predicting the level of involvement in the Arab Spring than any of the complex State Fragility Indexes. Thus, the goal of this article is not to explain the causes of the Arab Spring, but to add to the discussion of the predictive value of measures of instability.     

上海合作组织与地区安全

上海合作组织作为欧亚大陆一个日益受到关注的重要多边安全组织,对该地区的安全负有不可回避的重要责任.该组织自成立以来,为欧亚地区的安全与稳定作出了积极的贡献.未来,该组织的发展前景总体看好,同时还要克服一些困难和制约性因素,需要不断充实新的活力和动力,为欧亚大陆地区安全赢得更为广阔的前景.     

综合安全与国家形象

国家安全的内涵具有动态多维特征,以"综合安全"观点界定国家安全的内涵比较准确地体现了全球化时代的基本特征和基本规律,"国家形象"对国家安全具有重要影响,因此有必要运用"综合安全"视角来探讨全球化时代的"国家形象"如何定位、如何建设的问题。基于这一认识,本文主张重新思考"国家形象"建设的目标和内容,改进国际传播的手段和效果。对中国的"国家形象"建设本文也提出了基本的意见。     

在民族与国家之间--对阿拉伯地区政治的观念解读

阿拉伯世界存在着多重政治认同,这是该地区政治生态环境复杂多变的重要根源.其中,尤以阿拉伯民族主义对地区政治的影响最为深远.首先,它使阿拉伯国家陷入建立主权国家还是民族国家的政治认同标准之争;其次,它使阿拉伯国家不断面临着国家利益优先还是民族利益优先的执政理念困扰;最后,它要求阿拉伯国家统一对外立场而引起阿拉伯内部及其与外部世界的关系紧张.     

美国与东北亚地区安全:困境、动因及影响

由于错综复杂因素的交织,东北亚的安全两难一直是该地区国家寻求密切合作的最大障碍.并非区域内国家的美国却在东北亚安全关系中扮演主角,然而它深刻介入东北亚安全事务的结果是使地区安全困境愈益显现.美国在东北亚地区的矛盾角色自有其复杂的内在动因,即通过轴心-辐条的安全格局把美国霸权利益凌驾于东北亚地区安全之上.东北亚畸形的安全态势对地区一体化进程及其安全构建产生了十分不利的影响.     

新加坡精英治国论的实践

新加坡基于国情和历史因素 ,主张精英治国论 ,执政党广为挖掘和网罗精英 ,其采取的干部党员制度和公众直接选举有机结合的方式 ,已被证实是一种在新加坡比较有效地确保高选才成功率的精英选拔模式。本文主要介绍李光耀的精英治国思想及新加坡精英人才的选拔制度 ,并归纳出其产生背景和特点