Survival analysis: A survey

This paper is a survey of statistical methods used to analyze the length of time until a specified event occurs. These models have often been used to analyze the survival times (i.e., time until death) of medical patients, and so the term survival analysis is natural. In criminology, the main application of these models has been to analyze the time until recidivism, but many other applications are possible. The paper summarizes the statistical literature on survival analysis, and describes its applications in criminology. The methods are illustrated by an application to the prediction of time until recidivism for a sample of North Carolina prison releasees.     

Social ecology, individual risk, and recidivism: A multilevel examination of main and moderating influences

Purpose

Despite a longstanding tradition in criminology to consider the impact of neighborhood context on crime-related outcomes, criminologists have largely ignored the influence of social ecology on recidivism until recently. The purpose of the present study was to examine the main and moderating influences of social ecology on recidivism.

Materials and Methods

The present study used hierarchical nonlinear modeling to estimate the effects of concentrated disadvantage, immigrant concentration, and residential stability on recidivism for a sample of offenders released from custody/supervision in 2006 and nested within Iowa counties. We controlled for individual-level risk for recidivism using the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R), a validated risk assessment instrument. We also examined whether the relationship between LSI-R score and recidivism varied across counties, and if so, whether this variation can be explained by social structural characteristics.

Results

Results indicate that residential stability was the only contextual variable significantly related to recidivism. The relationship between individual-level risk and recidivism did not vary across contexts.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that the social structural context has limited influence on recidivism, while the LSI-R is a robust predictor of recidivism across contexts. We discuss the implications of our findings for theory, practice, and future research.     

Low self-control and parole failure: An assessment of risk from a theoretical perspective

Due to high levels of probation and parole failure, a substantial body of research in criminology, psychology, and criminal justice focused on pinpointing those factors that indicate the highest risk of recidivism and recommitment. The majority of the risk assessment tools that were currently utilized, however, were not theoretically based. This research was an attempt to examine parole failure from a theoretical perspective-that of Gottfredson and Hirschi’s general theory of crime. Results showed that low self-control was a significant, although not the only, predictor of parole failure. Low self-control, however, did not appear to significantly impact the length of time before the failure occurred. Future research suggestions and policy implications are provided.     

Institutionalization of Criminology: A Prerequisite to Comparative Criminology

The increased prevalence and enrichment of comparative analysis would invigorate criminology generally as a scientific field because comparative criminology is a movement toward a “true science of criminology.” But, at least at its present stage, comparative criminology awaits the institutionalization of criminology at a level sufficient for the essential availability of criminologists capable of and competent for meeting the peculiar demands of transnational research.

“Comparative, coordinated and interdisciplinary research should be carried out to determine the relative effects of programs in different countries” and through cooperation between researchers from different countries…to develop a highly promising new field of comparative criminology”, in order to determine “uniformities and differences in causal influences, in predictive factors, and in results of preventive and treatment programs” and to develop “a true science of criminology.”     

构建和谐社会:中国犯罪学发展的历史机遇——2006年犯罪学研究述评

构建社会主义和谐社会是中国犯罪学当代发展的宏观社会背景和历史性机遇。进入2006年,我国犯罪学发展已经显现出一种进行知识整理和提速成熟的态势。构建和谐社会、犯罪学研究范式、发展犯罪学、宽严相济刑事政策、少年司法、恢复性司法、刑事和解、社区矫正等,是2006年度我国犯罪学发展中的主旋律、关键词或新概念,它们共同组成了本年度我国犯罪学发展基本脉络中的显著标识点。     

Predicting recidivism in a communitarian society: China

Research on the prediction of recidivism has largely been an enterprise of Western criminology. Therefore, the identification and selection of predictors has tended to follow the individualistic traditions of the West. Important advances in models and methods have not been extended to non-Western societies such as China. This article explores the implications of communitarian features of Chinese urban communities for prediction of recidivism. The article applies the perspective of social capital to the specification of predictors. Available community social-capital measures are included in the prediction model to capture the effects of communitarian cultural features. The results indicate that social capital variables generally have significant effects.     

Recidivism in a Sample of Serious Adolescent Offenders

Objectives

A broad research literature in criminology documents key aspects of how criminal offending develops and changes over the life span. We contribute to this literature by showcasing methods that are useful for studying medium-term patterns of subsequent criminal justice system involvement among a sample of serious adolescent offenders making the transition to early adulthood.

Methods

Our approach relies on 7 years of post-enrollment follow-up from the Pathways to Desistance Study. Each person in the study was adjudicated delinquent for or convicted of one or more relatively serious offenses during adolescence. Their local jurisdiction juvenile court petition records and their adult FBI arrest records were systematically searched.

Results

We estimate in-sample 7 year recidivism rates in the 75–80 % range. Our analysis also provides recidivism rate estimates among different demographic groups within the sample. Extrapolated long-term recidivism rates are estimated to be on the order of 79–89 %.

Conclusions

The Pathways data suggest that recidivism rates of serious adolescent offenders are high and quite comparable to the rates estimated on other samples of serious offenders in the extant literature. Our analysis also reveals a pattern of heightened recidivism risk during the earliest months and years of the follow-up period followed by a steep decline.

     

论犯罪学研究成果的转化——兼论犯罪学的良性发展机制

犯罪学研究成果应当及时转化为刑事立法、刑事政策、实务部门的具体决策以及社会公众防范犯罪的方法、手段等,切实发挥预防和控制犯罪的作用,充分为维护社会稳定大局服务.当前,犯罪学研究成果的转化面临较多的实际困难,关键在于研究成果的研发机制、中介机制、评价机制存在不同程度的缺陷和脱节,应当尽快建立健全犯罪学研究成果的转化机制,大力推动犯罪学的良性发展.     

Public criminologies

Research Summary Public scholarship aspires to bring social science home to the individuals, communities, and institutions that are its focus of study. In particular, it seeks to narrow the yawning gap between public perceptions and the best available scientific evidence on issues of public concern. Yet nowhere is the gap between perceptions and evidence greater than in the study of crime. Here, we outline the prospects for a public criminology, conducting and disseminating research on crime, law, and deviance in dialogue with affected communities. We present historical data on the media discussion of criminology and sociology, and we outline the distinctive features of criminology—interdisciplinary, a subject matter that incites moral panics, and a practitioner base actively engaged in knowledge production—that push the boundaries of public scholarship. Policy Implications Discussions of public sociology have drawn a bright line separating policy work from professional, critical, and public scholarship. As the research and policy essays published in Criminology & Public Policy make clear, however, the best criminology often is conducted at the intersection of these domains. A vibrant public criminology will help to bring new voices to policy discussions while addressing common myths and misconceptions about crime.     

The Neglect of Quantitative Research in Green Criminology and Its Consequences

While interest in green criminology has rapidly expanded over the past twenty-five years, much of this growth has occurred on the periphery of orthodox criminology. This article suggests that green criminology’s marginalization is partially a result of its non-quantitative methodology. We hypothesize that non-quantitative tendencies within green criminology distance it from orthodox criminology because orthodox criminology values quantitative methods (Tewksbury et al. in J Crim Justice Educ 16(2):265–279, 2005). Here, we examine how neglecting quantitative research methods may contribute to inattention to green criminology within orthodox criminology, and we consider what can be done to change that situation. We suggest that employing quantitative approaches within green criminology is one way to increase its appeal to mainstream criminology, and that quantitative studies, in conjunction with other research methodologies, can also enhance generalizability of findings, influence policy, and advance theory construction and hypothesis testing.     

刑法预防性立法对犯罪学之影响:困境与出路

当代风险社会及其构成要素,是互相联系、互相成就和互相影响的刑法学与犯罪学的共同知识场域。预防性立法模式在刑法立法实践中确立,预防型犯罪也被简化为安全的技术辅助。犯罪学研究的犯罪现象、原因和对策随之发生变化,其研究范式也便面临危机和挑战。针对预防刑法的“事前法”特征,对其进行研究的犯罪学也应转向“事前”犯罪学。事前犯罪学在传统的“现象-原因-对策”研究范式的基础上,更应进行问题意识和研究方式的转化,为预防性立法走向理性、科学和合理贡献知识。事前犯罪学理论知识,要进入预防性立法的决策场域,就应寻找适合预防性立法的犯罪学逻辑体系。其展现的知识逻辑和问题意识,不是要和预防刑法知识体系合谋,而是要在既有理论的基础上,整合和构建恰当的研究范式和知识库存、跨学科借新智、打破传统事实学窠臼、遵守法治精神,据此走出困境,也为预防性立法提供根据。     

LEVELS AND PREDICTORS OF RECIDIVISM: THE MALTA EXPERIENCE*

Research on recidivism has been confined primarily to a few highly industrialized Western nations (e.g., United States, Great Britain, Canada, and Australia) in which the data and resources needed for such research are readily available. The restriction of recidivism research to such a small number of nations begs the question: Do these results reflect patterns of offending and products of the criminal justice systems unique to these nations, or do they describe patterns of recidivism across a much wider range of social and cultural contexts? In this study I extend the scope of recidivism research by examining levels and patterns of recidivism in the Republic of Malta, a small Mediterranean island that differs considerably from the typical context in which recidivism is studied. Specifically, I examine the likelihood of recidivism among persons released from Malta's only prison between 1976 and 1994. In addition, I examine factors shown in previous research to be strong predictors of recidivism to assess their value as predictors of recidivism among Maltese prisoners. Proportional hazards regression models reveal that levels and predictors of recidivism in Malta approximate those observed in societies that are socially and culturally quite different. The findings suggest that the role of social institutions in reintegrating offenders into society may be more complex than commonly believed.     

Society's retributive response to juvenile violence: A developmental perspective

Examines theoretical and empirical challenges to a national trend toward increasingly punitive determinate sentences in juvenile court, and automatic transfer of juveniles to criminal court, for homicides and other serious violent offenses. Theory and research in developmental psychology, criminology, and child clinical psychology and psychiatry are examined, with special attention to (a) decision-making by adolescents; (b) characteristics of adolescents who commit homicide; and (c) adolescents' recidivism and potential for rehabilitation. Theoretical support is found for promoting legal responses to adolescent violent offenders that are different from those for adult violent offenders, arguing against determinate sentences based on the offense alone. Empirical support, however, is limited by the lack of relevant systematic research, for which specific recommendations are offered.     

我国犯罪学研究方法与方法研究

每个学科都有自己的研究方法,科学的研究方法是任何学科赖以建立和发展的工具,犯罪学作为一门社会科学,它也有自己的研究方法,而且犯罪学的研究方法呈现出多样化的特点。目前我国犯罪学研究中存在的问题是实证研究缺乏,定性与定量分析分离,研究范式单一陈旧,应整合研究方法,做到思辨与实证相结合,定性与定量相结合,寻求多学科理论支持,重塑犯罪学研究范式。     

Against General Theory in Comparative Research

This paper argues against the search for a general theory of crime causation in comparative criminology. It includes a critique of two advocates of general theory, and offers three propositions which suggest appropriate strategies for theory construction in comparative research.     

Beyond static and dynamic risk factors: the incremental validity of release planning for predicting sex offender recidivism

Both desistance research and strengths-based approaches to offender rehabilitation suggest that attempts to reduce sex offender recidivism should attend to an offender's release environment. Recent research has demonstrated that better quality release planning is associated with reduced recidivism; however, whether release planning contributes significant incremental validity in predicting recidivism over and above static and dynamic risk factors is unclear. In the present study, release planning was retrospectively assessed for a sample of child molesters (n = 196) who had been released into the community following completion of a prison-based treatment program and its relative contribution to recidivism risk prediction was investigated. The average follow-up period was 11.08 years, during which 13.3% of the sample were convicted of a new sexual offence. Hierarchical Cox regression analyses showed that release planning contributed additional predictive validity for sexual recidivism after controlling for static and dynamic risk factors. Findings suggest that assessment of release planning might improve accuracy of sex offender risk assessments and that improved release planning should contribute to reductions in recidivism.     

THE TWELVE PEOPLE WHO SAVED REHABILITATION: HOW THE SCIENCE OF CRIMINOLOGY MADE A DIFFERENCE

Three decades ago, it was widely believed by criminologists and policymakers that “nothing works” to reform offenders and that “rehabilitation is dead” as a guiding correctional philosophy. By contrast, today there is a vibrant movement to reaffirm rehabilitation and to implement programs based on the principles of effective intervention. How did this happen? I contend that the saving of rehabilitation was a contingent reality that emerged due to the efforts of a small group of loosely coupled research criminologists. These scholars rejected the “nothing works” professional ideology and instead used rigorous science to show that popular punitive interventions were ineffective, that offenders were not beyond redemption, and that treatment programs rooted in criminological knowledge were capable of meaningfully reducing recidivism. Their story is a reminder that, under certain conditions, the science of criminology is capable of making an important difference in the correctional enterprise, if not far beyond.     

社会网络分析之犯罪学意义

社会网络分析是西方社会学领域关于社会结构的一种崭新的观点和研究范式。社会网络分析强调社会关系对个人生活的影响,着眼于用关系的思维方式解释社会。社会网络分析为犯罪原因论的整合、犯罪对策的选择提供了新的思路,因而具有重要的犯罪学意义。总体而言,社会关系网络对犯罪生成起着一种抑制作用,但少数情形例外;不同历史时期的社会关系网络有其不同特征,对该时期的犯罪生成与犯罪控制也就会产生不同的影响;可以从社会网络角度对现行刑罚体系、相关社会政策及潜规则等做法进行反思。     

犯罪学转型中研究对象的固化———从科尔曼的“系统行为内部分析说”谈起简

犯罪学是一门兼具综合性与交叉性的新兴学科,自其诞生以来,相关理论问题争议不断.其中,犯罪学的研究对象一直以来就是学者们热议的话题,尤其在我国犯罪学的转型时期,该问题更需亟待解决.犯罪学不再局限于以传统的个体行为或个体现象作为其研究对象,而是立足于从宏观的视角认识其研究对象,将其固化为一种特殊的系统现象,同时采用科尔曼的“系统行为内部分析”说作为分析犯罪学研究对象的方法论,把群体现象或群体行为作为犯罪学微观上的研究对象,旨在实现犯罪学研究的宏观与微观、系统与要素的结合,从而全面认识犯罪这一特殊的社会现象、及其本质和规律.