网络谣言的生成与治理

随着网络技术的迅速发展,网络传播的社会影响越来越大。网络谣言也由于网络覆盖范围的全球性、传播方式的自由性而对国家政治稳定的负面作用越来越大,成为引发社会振荡、危害公共安全的不确定因素。文章分析了网络谣言的生成机理,并在此基础上提出治理之策,旨在有效地规避网络谣言的危害、促进社会健康发展。     

谣言高发视角下的高校网络舆情危机应对机制研究

当前高校网络舆情危机呈高发态势,许多舆情危机通常或是由谣言引发,或是舆情发酵中谣言充斥,给学校的声誉带来了极大伤害。网络舆情危机的高发对高校的危机管理提出了更高的要求,必须转变传统的管制思维,尊重网络舆情衍化规律,整合学校资源,建立以"监控、预警、快速反应"为主体的网络舆情危机的长效应对机制。     

论网络政治谣言及其社会控制

随着网络技术的迅速发展,网络政治传播的社会影响越来越大。网络政治谣言也由于网络覆盖范围的全球性、传播方式的自由性而对国家政治稳定的负面作用越来越大,成为引发社会振荡、危害公共安全的因素。本文分析了网络政治谣言的传播特征及其社会危害,认为网络传播的大容量、离散性和无国界特性,以及国际、国内政治斗争的现实需要使其难以彻底根绝,国家应该充分认识到网络政治谣言对国家政治安全的严重危害,采取必要政治措施和技术手段对网络政治谣言传播加以有效控制,维护政治稳定。     

德国公共安全风险管控分析及启示——初探上海轨道交通未来智慧化公共安全风险管控

21世纪以来,全球一体化的加速推进和科学技术的飞速发展推动了德国在公共安全风险管控方面的进一步发展及其风险管控体系的进一步完善。德国公共安全风险管控的危机管理是德国应对安全危机的关键一环,也是德国公共安全体制机制的一个重要组成部分。德国的风险分析工作起步较早,已形成一套较为成熟的风险分析体系。因此,以德国反恐突发事件风险管控的具体实践为参考样本,重点分析德国公共安全风险管控的未来发展趋势、危机管理、风险分析方法等内容有助于为我国未来城市轨道交通开展智慧化公共安全风险管控提供战略支撑。     

新时代公共安全风险源头治理的路径选择与策略探讨——基于系统脆弱性理论框架分析

随着我国特色社会主义进入新时代,人民对高质量公共安全产品的供给需求越来越高,人民的获得感、幸福感和安全感成为一切工作追求的目标。面对新时代、新任务,公共安全与应急管理体系必须转型和调整,从应急管理逐步走向风险治理、从危机事件应急转向安全风险的防控,确保公共安全风险处于可控状态。当前,可基于系统脆弱性理论框架剖析公共危机事件生成的机理,探讨公共安全风险源头治理的路径选择和策略,确保从源头上消除危机事件产生的风险和隐患,杜绝重大危机事件的发生,实现安全发展的目标。     

公共安全：公共管理不可忽视的社会问题

公共安全是公共部门必须重视的公共管理中的一个社会问题。现代社会存在多种威胁公共安全的因素。公共部门要和社会公众共同合作,制定保障公共安全的法律和制度,有效地处理危机,更好地实现社会公共利益。     

危机情境建构与社会管理创新——基于流言谣言的传播机理分析

流言谣言的存在警示着社会过程的种种风险,也提供了社会预应的重要信息。社会管理中需要立足文化心理,把握流言谣言特点和传播规律,实现信息公开和危机预应。特别需要完善政府服务功能,提高应急和济护能力,培育社会责任,进而有效避免社会震荡,促进和谐发展。     

论网络谣言的治理策略

互联网为谣言提供便捷快速的传播平台,一定社会情境下的消极社会心态是谣言产生与传播的重要诱因。网络谣言产生具有客观性和难以预测性。在当前中国社会转型的背景下,网络谣言映射部分社会心态,这包括负面情绪、弱势心态和信任危机等。社会心态与网络谣言相互作用:消极社会心态下的人们更易信谣传谣,消极社会心态在网络谣言中传播扩散,在网络谣言动员中容易转化为集体行动等。网络谣言必须加以治理。基于社会心态层面的网络谣言的治理策略主要包括社会主义核心价值观引领、建设法治国家和提高公众的理性辨识能力。     

提升政府危机管理能力

维护社会公共安全是现代政府的重要职责之一。妥善的危机管理以政府自觉为首要前提，并需正确把握应对危机的原则，科学把握危机处理程序。     

网络谣言：值得警惕的另类突发事件

近年来，谣言这个东西仿佛获得了某种“能量”，总是时不时地出现，时不时地给人们造成一种冲击，一种震撼，众多荒诞鬼魅的谣言已经从网络段子上升为公共危机事件，成为破坏社会稳定、左右公共利益、制造社会恐慌的巨大力量，应该引起各级地方政府的高度重视。     

“以谣辟谣”：政府回应中的特殊现象及其解读

“以谣辟谣”现象是一种特殊的政府回应行为,多发生于公共政策事件、官员违法违纪事件、突发性公共事件中。以发生领域为标准,可以将“以谣辟谣”现象划分为政策型、庇护型、突发型三类。“以谣辟谣”具有网络时代特性,目标指向明确且具有前后事实对比,其产生逻辑是在特定制度环境和行政文化背景下,为摆脱回应方面的行动困境所做出的行为选择。为避免此种行为发生,需要完善政府回应的制度约束,建立常态化的回应机制,拓宽政务公开渠道,强化民间信息平台的管理,实现权威信息的全民共享。     

Signal recognition during the emergence of pandemic influenza type A/H1N1: a commercial disease intelligence unit’s perspective

Some public health crises become threats to national security. In April 2009, the Veratect Corporation provided a series of escalated warnings to key members of the international public health community regarding unusual respiratory disease reporting activity in Mexico, later referred to as the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The warning sequence of the H1N1 influenza pandemic highlighted potential complementarity between that of an intelligence-inspired warning culture vs. a risk-averse, forensically oriented response culture favored by traditional public health practitioners. Both are required to address the current range of difficult-to-predict public health crises that become a threat to national security.     

National cyber crisis management: Different European approaches

Cyber crises, as new forms of transboundary crises, pose serious risks to societies. This article investigates how different models of public–private partnerships shape cyber crisis management in four European countries: the Netherlands, Denmark, Estonia, and the Czech Republic. Using Provan and Kenis's modes of network governance, an initial taxonomy of cyber governance structures is provided. The Netherlands have created a participant‐governed network, characterized by trust and equality. The Czech and Estonian models resemble a network administrative organization, with an enforcement role for their national cyber security centers. Denmark has adopted a lead‐agency model. The article concludes that countries face two binary choices when organizing cyber defense and crisis management. First, national computer emergency response teams/computer security incident response teams can be embedded inside or outside the intelligence community. Second, cyber capacity can be centralized in one unit or spread across different sectors. These decisions fundamentally shape information‐sharing arrangements and potential roles during cyber crises.     

The use of intelligence to determine attribution of the 2010 Haiti cholera disaster

Some public health crises and disasters represent threats to national security. In 2010 and 2011, Haiti experienced a cholera disaster surpassing all others in the world following a catastrophic earthquake. A novel integrated intelligence system, the Haiti Epidemic Advisory System (HEAS), provided critical information indicating the United Nations was the accidental source of the cholera disaster. This report reviews the operational context of the HEAS in relation to traditional public health surveillance and the role of intelligence in the determination of biological threat attribution.     

The Public Salience of Foreign and Security Policy in Britain,Germany and France

The salience of foreign affairs to general publics is an important but often neglected parameter for the role of public opinion in foreign and security policy. This article explores the determinants of foreign affairs' public salience and probes into the respective patterns in Germany, Britain and France. Building on the theory of news values, the article proposes to distinguish between issue-specific and country-specific influences on the public salience of foreign and security policy. The data suggest that broad international crises on the scale of 9/11 or the Iraq war go along with distinct cross-national peaks in the salience of foreign affairs to general publics. At the same time, the effects of constant issue logics are refracted by country-specific factors: most notably, the latter account for the much higher overall salience of foreign affairs to the British public than to the German and French publics since late 2002.     

Leadership,regime security,and China's policy toward Taiwan: prospect theory and Taiwan crises

Abstract

Traditional analyses of Taiwan crises have relied mainly on deterrence theory for their explanatory power. This approach fails to account for China's risk-taking behavior, which can be explained by prospect theory. We suggest that Chinese leaders are more likely to use more risky military coercion against Taiwan's pro-independence movements within a domain of losses, i.e., when their regime faces serious domestic and international challenges to its security. Conversely, Chinese leaders are more likely to employ less risky political pressure to oppose Taiwan's pro-independence forces if their decision making takes place in a domain of gains, i.e., when the security of China's regime is not challenged. We conclude that maintaining a good US–China relationship is the best strategy for the United States to help prevent military crises in the Taiwan Strait.     

Intelligence,Crisis, and Democracy: Institutional Punctuations in Brazil,Colombia, South Africa,and India

This article analyzes why institutional crises are bound to happen and how they impact on national intelligence systems’ development. Punctuated Equilibrium theory is reviewed and employed to explain one institutional crisis in each of Brazil, Colombia, South Africa, and India. In Brazil, the case study is the fall of the Brazilian Intelligence Agency (ABIN) director in 2008, following the Satiagraha operation conducted by the Federal Police Department (DPF). In Colombia, the 2009 wiretapping scandal known as chuzadas is examined. In South Africa, the investigation in Project Avani (2006–8) is reviewed. Finally, in India the case study is the intelligence crisis following the Mumbai terrorist attacks in 2008. We found that institutional crises are inevitable because there are tensions between security and democracy, both being co-evolutionary dimensions of successful contemporary state building. However, the impacts of such crises vary across the four cases pending on three variables: (1) degree of functional specialization inside the national intelligence system; (2) degree of external public control over the national intelligence system; (3) whether effectiveness, legitimacy or both were the main drivers of the crisis. Our analysis of the four case studies suggests that the amount of positive institutional change in the aftermath of an intelligence crisis is greater in countries with more functional specialization and stronger external control mechanisms.     

The 22 July Terrorist Attacks in Norway: Impact on Public Attitudes towards Counterterrorist Authorities

Did the terrorist attacks in Norway affect citizens’ attitudes to security‐related institutions and policies? To answer this question this study pools two cross‐sectional surveys, collected shortly before and after the 2011 terrorist attacks, to determine the attacks’ effects on people's attitudes. One important finding is that general support for the institutions responsible for security increased slightly, whereas specific support for government agencies capability to prevent and cope with crises decreased markedly. A second important finding concerns the potential for politicisation of crises: On issues of security, the distance between right‐wing voters and other party voters increased after the attack. Irrespective of party attachment, Norwegians have become less satisfied with governmental policies on security‐related issues, but dissatisfaction has increased significantly more among right‐wing than among left‐wing voters. Thus, even in a country where politicians responded to the crisis with an appeal to togetherness and common values, citizens’ attitudes on security policies were politicised.     

Political secrecy in Europe: crisis management and crisis exploitation

Abstract

This article theorises the relationship of crisis and political secrecy in European public policy. Combining the literatures on crisis management and securitisation, it introduces two distinct types of crisis-related secrecy. (1) Reactive secrecy denotes the deliberate concealment of information from the public with the aim of reducing immediate negative crisis consequences. It presents itself as a functional necessity of crisis management. (2) Active secrecy is about substantive or procedural secrecy employed by authority-holders to implement their interests with fewer restraints. Here, secrecy is an instrument of crisis exploitation, reducing obstacles to extraordinary measures. This distinction is based on an understanding of authority-holders as simultaneous legitimacy- and discretion-seekers whose secrecy politics depend on the constraints and opportunities presented by crises. In order to illustrate active and reactive secrecy, the article uses examples from the euro crisis (Eurogroup summitry, ECB sovereign bond purchases) and the security crisis after 9/11 (terror lists).     

Humanitarian Crises and the International Politics of Selectivity

How has the international community responded to humanitarian crises after the end of the Cold War? While optimistic ideational perspectives on global governance stress the importance of humanitarian norms and argue that humanitarian crises have been increasingly addressed, more skeptical realist accounts point to material interests and maintain that these responses have remained highly selective. In empirical terms, however, we know very little about the actual extent of selectivity since, so far, the international community’s reaction to humanitarian crises has not been systematically examined. This article addresses this gap by empirically examining the extent and the nature of the selectivity of humanitarian crises. To do so, the most severe humanitarian crises in the post-Cold War era are identified and examined for whether and how the international community responded. This study considers different modes of crisis response (ranging from inaction to military intervention) and different actors (including states, international institutions, and nonstate actors), yielding a more precise picture of the alleged “selectivity gap” and a number of theoretical implications for contemporary global security governance.