Assessing Civil-Military Relations and the January 6th Capitol Insurrection

The events of January 6, 2021, when violent rioters attacked the Capitol building in Washington in order to disrupt validation of the 2020 presidential election, forced an unprecedented reckoning with the state of American politics. Members of Congress struggled to account for the rhetoric that gave rise to the event; law enforcement grappled with the challenge of holding accountable those who perpetrated the violence; and journalistic outlets wrestled with reporting a complex web of conspiracy theories and disinformation that gave rise to the insurrection. But for senior military leaders, the question was how to explain the troubling presence of active duty servicemembers and veterans in the first attack on the American seat of government in two centuries. The result is a profound and urgent discussion in U.S. civil-military relations.     

Negotiating Civil-Military Relations in Post-Authoritarian Argentina and Chile

This article invokes game theory to analyze civilian attempts to push back military influence in two countries where the armed forces have enjoyed strikingly dissimilar levels of power and privilege after the transition of democracy: Argentina and Chile. It finds that civilian governments in both countries have managed to make progress in challenging military prerogatives. But they have made relatively more progress in areas unrelated to human rights. While civilians have had to respect military immunity in the human rights sphere, they have anaged to erode other limitations on popular sovereignty that the officer corps imposed as a condition for leaving power. The resulting accommodation I describe reflects the pragmatic approach to politics that civilian and military leaders have assumed in post-authoritarian Latin America.     

France,Civil-Military Relations,and Nuclear Weapons

Robert S. McNamara, In Retrospect; The Tragedy and Lessons of Vietnam. New York: Random House, 1995. xviii, 414 pp./$27.50 cloth.     

Towards a New Conceptualization of Democratization and Civil-Military Relations

The purpose of this article is to contribute to a better understanding of the contemporary importance for democracy of the relationship between elected leaders and the security forces. It attempts to present a conceptualization and framework to help comprehend what security forces actually do and how they interface with democratic governments. The article aims to extend the conceptual breadth of the literature on civil–military relations beyond control to include two further dimensions – effectiveness and efficiency. The research is based on the authors' experience in conducting programmes for officers and civilians throughout the world in line with at least six different roles and missions of security forces. The conceptualization draws on literature in comparative politics, organization theory, and defence economics, as well as civil–military relations, and security sector reform.     

Israeli-Turkish Tensions and their International Ramifications

The deterioration of relations between Israel and Turkey, culminating in the “Gaza flotilla” affair of June 2010, are part of a reorientation in the Turkish foreign policy over the past several years: a move away from the West and toward Muslim states and non-state groups, including such radical actors as Iran, Hamas and Hizballah. This article reviews the rationale for the Israeli-Turkish strategic partnership in the 1990s and the early years of this century. It then documents deviations in Turkish foreign policy from Western patterns. Next it examines how changes in Turkey's twenty-first century strategic environment, as well as in the domestic arena, led to a reorientation of Turkish foreign policy and to current tensions in bilateral relations. And finally, it assesses the impact of the changes in Turkish foreign policy on the Greater Middle East and global politics.     

国际政治"E"化的战略张力

近来,国际政治的"E"化现象值得我们关注.所谓"E"化,大约是指这样几个词汇中所荷载的国际政治意涵:能源(Energy),环境(Environment),生态(Ecology).通常具有远见卓识的科学界又一次谆谆告诫国际政治学家们,人类社会正悄悄地从IT时代步入ET(Energy & Environment Technology,能源和环境技术)和ES(Ecology Science,生态科学)时代.他们预言,ET将是一场意义深远的科技革命,世界格局将会为之一变.     

Rising Russian-Western Tensions in the Global Security Context

Tensions between Russia and the West have grown increasingly apparent in recent years. This can be demonstrated in Moscow＇s ideological confrontations with the West, the intensifying rivalry over military strategic force, the fierce geopolitical confrontation, and grave contentions over energy resources between the two. The author concludes that in short, rising Russia-US tensions can hardly be remedied. It is a matter of political significance that merits careful consideration by the international community.     

On the Causes of Tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the Solutions

Since the emergence of nuclear issues on the Korean Peninsula in the 1990s,the process of denuclearization has been unfolding,but has been unsatisfactory in promoting abandonment of nuclear weapons by the DPRK and reestablishing security in Northeast Asia.Gradually,the overall situation on the peninsula has worsened into an overall trend of deterioration.Especially since 2016,confrontation has further highlighted the complexity of the situation on the peninsula and the sharp increase of uncertainty.     

A Crude Bargain: Great Powers,Oil States,and Petro-Alignment

Abstract

Petro-alignment, a quid pro quo arrangement whereby great powers offer security in exchange for oil states’ friendly oil policies, is a widely used and yet undertheorized energy security strategy. One consequential aspect of this exchange is that great powers choose different levels of security commitment to keep oil producers friendly. With what criteria do great powers rank oil states? How do we conceptualize different types of petro-alignments? What exactly do great powers and oil producers exchange under each petro-alignment type? I posit that a mix of market power and geostrategic location determines the strategic value and vulnerability of individual client oil states, which then generates four corresponding types of petro-alignment—security guarantee, strategic alignment, strategic favor, and neglect. Two carefully selected case comparisons—Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in 1970–91, and Azerbaijan and Ecuador in 1990–2013—show how great powers created, utilized, and maintained petro-alignments under the unique logic of oil markets and across varying geopolitical settings. The findings have important implications on great powers’ grand strategies, strategic behaviors of oil states, and the role of oil in international security.     

The Inherent Logic behind Rising China-Japan Tensions

Regardless of the basic principles governing bilateral relations over -the past four decades and the possible damage to the interests of the people of the two countries, the Japanese government has deliberately touched China＇s raw nerve frequently over delicate issues in disputes over the past couple of years. In 2010, the Naha prefectural court attempted to put on trial a Chinese boat captain detained for fishing near the disputed Diaoyu Islands. In 2012, under the pretext of preventing Tokyo Governor Ishihara Shintaro from ＂purchasing＂ these islands, the Yoshihiko Noda cabinet attempted to ＂nationalize＂ them. In 2013, flying in the face of world opinion, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe insisted on paying a visit to the notorious Yasukuni Shrine, where the ashes of Class A war criminals are enshrined, and hinted at similar action in the future. Are these all the action of individual political leaders？ If not, what is Tokyo up to？ What of bilateral relations？     

印巴关系缓和初析

2004年新年伊始,印度总理瓦杰帕伊和巴基斯坦总统穆沙拉夫在共同出席南亚区域合作联盟(简称南盟)首脑会议时,实现了双方最高级别的会晤,再次书写了印巴改善关系的“新篇章”。根据双方签署的联合声明,两国定于2004年2月恢复对话。印方明确表示对话将包括克什米尔问题;巴方承诺禁止恐怖分子利用其领土向印控区发动袭     

Rocks and Hard Places: Managing Two Tensions in Negotiation

Theorists posit two fundamental tensions in negotiation. One is strategic: the tug-and-pull between creating value and claiming one's share of it. The other is interpersonal: the tension between asserting one's own interests and, at the same time, empathizing with the feelings and needs of other parties. ¹ This research report analyzes how negotiators experience these tensions in practice. Specifically, their self-perceptions about their relative competence in several key areas allow us to see how strength along one dimension (like getting the maximum) is correlated with other important skills. Some of the authors' findings confirm familiar models. For example, people implicitly feel that being successful at asserting their own interests imposes a cost with respect to understanding others. There were some surprises, however: most notably, people who rated themselves as strong value claimers also saw themselves as good value creators. The authors explore some of the implications of their findings for both practice and teaching, and foreshadow a follow-up report they plan. They also note how other researchers can access their data for their own studies.     

Explaining Civil-Military Relations in Complex Political Environments: India and Pakistan in Comparative Perspective

This article argues that military intervention into politics can only be understood by studying both the nature of threats and of domestic political arrangements. I offer a theory of the military in politics built around the interaction between threat configuration, political institutionalization, and civilian government legitimacy. The argument is tested with paired-comparison case studies of Indian and Pakistani civil-military relations since independence. Despite their similarities at the time of partition, these two militaries took completely different political trajectories. The cases reveal how structures of domestic politics interact with military threat perceptions to explain civilians' ability to maintain varying levels of control over the military.     

Dereliction of Duty Redux?: Post-Iraq American Civil-Military Relations

The protracted war in Iraq has exacerbated existing tensions and dysfunctional elements inherent in American civil-military relations. Many in the national security community were worried that civil-military relations were far from satisfactory well before the war.¹ For too long this dimension of “the American way of war” had been allowed to drift without resolution. The Iraq conflict could result in a further deterioration in this crucial component of strategic effectiveness due to mutual “scapegoating, blame-avoiding and willful institutional refusal to recognize and act on the sources of defeat.”² This essay explores the current precarious nature of civil-military relations in this country. It also explores the emergence of a “stab in the back” thesis among the military community, and various issues raised by the ongoing Long War. Based on this evaluation, the article concludes with some proposals to remedy or lessen the strains that exist today. These remedies seek to better define the compact and code of conduct that governs the overall relationship between the masters of policy and the dedicated servants we ask to carry out those policies.     

新布什主义与美国外交

“新布什主义”概括起来就是布什政府在第二任期内将通过进攻性外交、军事、经济等手段向全球推广“民主”“、自由”来“保卫”和扩大美国全球霸权的一种战略。它在本质上和第一任期的“布什主义”是一致的,其目的在于更好地获得美国内的认同和争取国际支持。由于“布什主义”造成的高成本和对国际格局冲击太大“,新布什主义”的推行也同样会遇到多方面的制约。