论俄罗斯管理中的反常现象

通常认为俄罗斯是一个没有管理的国家,这不是说俄罗斯真的没有管理,而是因为俄罗斯的管理是最没有效率的。与此相反,在这样低效率的情况下,俄罗斯却在短短的几百年间取得了令世人瞩目的成就,当然也经历了惨痛的失败。这就是贯穿在俄罗斯管理中的反常现象———无效性与结果性。     

非正式制度理论与俄罗斯政治改革

简介非正式制度理论,认为该理论同样适用于政治制度变迁过程.从俄罗斯社会特有的历史文化传统出发,以非正式制度理论作为工具,分析非正式制度对俄罗斯政治转型的重要影响.通过分析非正式制度理论在俄罗斯的表现有助于更深刻地理解俄罗斯政治转型为何困难重重.俄罗斯现代民主政治改革方向虽然不可逆转,但必须沿着非正式制度的演化方向进行,这样才会降低改革成本和提高改革效率.俄罗斯要建立现代民主政治制度,不但要进一步完善正式制度的建设,还要强化非正式制度对此的适应和改变,最终达到二者的相容.     

俄罗斯经济衰退的内在原因分析

近期俄经济大幅下滑的直接原因在于国际油价暴跌和全球流动性紧缩,而根本原因则在于其脆弱的金融体系、畸形的经济结构和不稳定的增长模式.在抵御危机方面俄面临一系列有利和不利因素,关键取决于俄政府如何趋利避害.当前,世界正在酝酿一场绿色能源革命,全球各大经济体均在制定新能源发展战略,改造能源消费结构,开发利用新型能源,努力摆脱国民经济对石油的依赖,一旦获得重大突破必将强烈震撼国际能源市场,给依靠石油支撑国民经济的国家带来巨大消极影响.如果俄不进行积极的经济结构和产业结构调整,在下一个新型经济增长期(新能源时代)到来之时难免再次落伍.     

New media and strategic narratives: the Dutch referendum on Ukraine – EU Association Agreement in Ukrainian and Russian Internet blogs

ABSTRACT

This article analyses two confronting narratives authored by Ukrainian and Russian bloggers who reported the Dutch referendum held on 6 March 2016, and discussed Dutch citizens’ referendum vote on the Ukraine–EU Association Agreement. The considered narratives, addressed to the Ukrainian and Russian audiences respectively, are viewed as strategic because they specifically portray political actors of the referendum “drama” – the Netherlands, the European Union (EU), Ukraine and Russia. These actors are significant participants of European international relations, and their perceptions of one another are important for European security at the present time of critical diplomacy. In this paper, information about the DUTCH REFERENDUM obtained from the new media texts is regarded as a narrative-based political concept (NBPC). It is argued that this concept has different versions, or images that reflect the narrators’ biased perceptions imposed upon the public. Identification and comparison of such images require a particular methodology. Therefore, the objective of this paper is two-fold: to expose the two confronting versions of a strategically relevant political image, and to develop an authentic, interdisciplinary methodology for its analysis. The proposed methodology is informed by the ontology theory employed in cognitive science and cognitive linguistics.     

俄罗斯加入世贸组织与我国对俄投资

俄罗斯加入WTO的谈判尽管仍存在困难，但迟早会正式成为WTO成员。俄罗斯加入WTO后必须遵守WTO规则要求，投资环境进一步趋好，扩大市场准入，将为我国提供难得的发展机遇。但俄罗斯加入WTO并不意味着对俄投资风险已完全消除，我国对俄投资仍将面临诸多挑战。特别是在当前俄罗斯开始重塑投资形象的新形势下，我国应合理调控对俄投资规模，优化对俄投资主体，强化对俄投资管理，构建对俄投资风险评估体系，努力实现对俄投资互利共赢。     

清代中俄恰克图边境早期官制考

雍正年间,中俄开恰克图为边境贸易口岸,并开始设官进行管理。随着中俄经济、政治联系的加强,与之相适应的边境管理体制也逐渐形成。两国管理体制在恰克图贸易早期的服务宗旨是不同的:俄方用来打击边境非法贸易,保障对华正常贸易,以充实国库;中方则更关注边境地区的稳定,利用自己的管理体制监督蒙古人越界逃入俄境。     

Problems of maintaining defense security in today's world

This article addresses critical problems relating to Russian defense requirements in the first decades of the twenty‐first century. In the modern system of defense security two interrelated problems come clearly into view. On the one hand, political‐diplomatic, economic, informational and other non‐military means are necessary to resolve antagonisms, prevent conflicts, and provide for the national defense. On the other hand, when all these capabilities are exhausted, one must be ready to use military force. The author discusses the international environment confronting Russia, the threats facing the state, the organization of national defense, force structure, the nature of possible armed conflicts and the ways in which the armed forces and other troops may be used, and military training and education of personnel.     

普京两次总统竞选纲领之比较

1999年底和2012年初,普京两次参加俄罗斯总统竞选,两次提出客观冷静、直面问题、聚拢民心的竞选纲领,系统回答了俄罗斯现状、世界局势和俄罗斯向何处去的问题。普京两次高票获胜后,其竞选纲领就成为施政纲领,成为团结和引领俄罗斯人民建设国家的重要文件。比较两份纲领,能够看出间隔12年普京对国际环境和俄罗斯地位的判断不同、对国家作用的认识发生了改变、提出的经济发展模式也不同,但在危机意识、强调独立发展和团结一致重建俄罗斯等方面则有延续性。     

China’s Strategic Choices

A number of significant events in 2008-2009, such as the Russia-Georgia conflict, the Beijing Olympics, the global financial crisis, the continuing threat of international terrorism and the worldwide spread of the H1N1 virus, may herald the close of the post-Cold War era. A new epoch is dawning, characterized by the collective rise of emerging powers and by increased global cooperation in response to the common concerns of the planet. America, Europe, Japan, Russia, India, Australia and other world powers are contemplating new strategic options to meet these changing circumstances. As a major driving force behind this phenomenon, China faces pressures for self-change and global change at the same time. It is obviously a task more formidable than that confronting the rest of the world. It requires China to redefine its role in the new era and make its strategic choices more rational and multi-directional in nature.     

俄罗斯石油、天然气工业与中俄能源合作

俄罗斯石油储量占世界总储量的13%,天然气占34%,石油和天然气已成为俄罗斯重要出口换汇产品。苏联解体后,由于投资下降、设备老化、运输成本及国内税率大大高于国际市场等特点,石油、天然气工业面临着严重的困难。引入外资,加强中俄能源合作是俄能源工业发展的重要途径,这也将有助于俄罗斯经济的发展,加快俄罗斯振兴的步伐。随着中国经济的发展,我国石油年均进口递增34%,中俄能源合作将为中国未来的能源安全供给提供可靠保证。     

Modernising social service delivery in Russia: evolving government support for non-profit organisations

Russia has recently cracked down on politically active civil society, increasing regulation and undercutting foreign support. However, apolitical, service-oriented parts of civil society have not been subject to these restrictive policies. In contrast, since 2009 Russia has introduced a set of government tools to support socially oriented non-profit organisations. These tools present a framework akin to concepts of ‘third-party government’ and collaborative governance that have come to dominate Western public administration discourse. This article discusses the Russian government’s divergent positions towards civil society, the nature and extent of the supportive tool kit, and its prospects.     

Yvon Delbos and Anthony Eden: Anglo-French Cooperation, 1936-1938

The period of tenure of Anthony Eden and Yvon Delbos as the foreign ministers of their respective countries coincided with a remarkable improvement and convergence in Anglo-French relations. This was no accident. Both men had similar ideas in relation to the challenges confronting Britain and France in international affairs. Neither wanted really close relations with Soviet Russia and both supported non-intervention in the Spanish Civil War despite their growing concern over German and Italian intervention. Delbos was highly critical of Mussolini's Italy and was firmly opposed to a Franco-Italian rapprochement while Eden, having originally given the Duce the benefit of the doubt, came to distrust him and to oppose even conversations with Italy without prior concessions, such as the withdrawal of Italian volunteers from Spain. Finally, both supported the appeasement of Nazi Germany, including colonial concessions, although Delbos towards the end of his period as foreign minister became more sceptical as to the prospects for success.     

论奥巴马政府对俄政策调整的原因及俄美关系前景

前些年,布什政府对俄罗斯奉行的"挤压、遏制及削弱"的"单边主义"政策,致使美俄关系陷入日益"冰化"的状态。奥巴马上台后,呈现出谋求修复和改善与俄罗斯关系的政策调整趋势,而美国"单边主义"政策的挫败、俄罗斯方面的积极"抗争"以及美俄势力此消彼长的发展趋势等则是美国对俄政策调整的主要原因;以美国对俄政策调整为契机,美俄关系有望进入一个"合作加强、对抗减少"的"建设性"新阶段,然而,由于一系列制约性因素的存在,俄美关系的实质性改善仍任重而道远。     

The New Aerospace Diplomacy: Reconstructing Post-Cold War US-Russian Economic Relations

Post-Cold War U.S.-Russian diplomacy reveals the increased importance of new diplomatic actors and processes, whilst underscoring the continued key role of state-state negotiation in reconstructing the bilateral relationship between the United States and post-Soviet Russia. The Clinton administration and Yeltsin government negotiated measures to promote political stability, democratization, and conversion to a neoliberal market economy in Russia, a centrepiece of which was the integration of Russia’s globally competitive aerospace sector into the global production chain. Establishing the Gore-Chernomyrdin Commission, a top-level binational economic and technology policy committee, and signing a bilateral trade liberalization treaty on commercial satellite launch services paved the way for public-public and public-private bilateral space cooperation, and for major private joint ventures between US and Russian aerospace firms.     

Yvon Delbos and Anthony Eden: Anglo–French Cooperation, 1936–1938

The period of tenure of Anthony Eden and Yvon Delbos as the foreign ministers of their respective countries coincided with a remarkable improvement and convergence in Anglo–French relations. This was no accident. Both men had similar ideas in relation to the challenges confronting Britain and France in international affairs. Neither wanted really close relations with Soviet Russia and both supported non-intervention in the Spanish Civil War despite their growing concern over German and Italian intervention. Delbos was highly critical of Mussolini's Italy and was firmly opposed to a Franco–Italian rapprochement while Eden, having originally given the Duce the benefit of the doubt, came to distrust him and to oppose even conversations with Italy without prior concessions, such as the withdrawal of Italian volunteers from Spain. Finally, both supported the appeasement of Nazi Germany, including colonial concessions, although Delbos towards the end of his period as foreign minister became more sceptical as to the prospects for success.     

暴力方式与民心向背：寻找治理族群叛乱的条件组合

治理族群叛乱的目标既包括土地的控制,也包括人的控制,这是治理族群叛乱区别于其他形式叛乱的特点之一。人的控制实际包含两个内容,既包括人心向背,也包括人员数量的控制。人心向背关乎民众支持,而争取民众支持的必要性在于,虽然拥有民众支持并不必然导致叛乱的平息,但是没有民众支持是不能平息叛乱的。在族群叛乱已经发生的情况下,国家政府只有赢得更多当地民众的支持,才能成功治理叛乱。根据冲突各方的暴力行为方式及其对当地民众支持的影响,成功平息叛乱应具备国家政府有区别使用暴力、叛乱组织无区别使用暴力、当地温和派主导平叛行动等三个必要条件,以争取更多民众支持。这三个条件构成的条件组合,可以有效控制和减少叛乱组织能够招募到的人员数量,只要国家政府的平叛战略能够有效控制叛乱组织所招募的叛乱人员数量,叛乱组织就将走向衰败并最终消亡,也就是说这一条件组合能够成为国家政府成功平叛的一个充分条件。通过对结合俄罗斯、印度和西班牙等国家治理族群叛乱的经验和教训的分析,进一步证实了以上观点。     

俄朝韩三国能源合作与我国的能源安全

俄罗斯的能源储量丰富,产量巨大,已成为世界第一大产油国。俄罗斯的能源出口,在世界市场上占有举足轻重的地位。俄韩能源合作历史较晚,潜力巨大。俄朝能源合作正在恢复,并不断加强。为了我国的能源安全,我国应积极参与俄朝韩三国的能源合作。     

俄罗斯政治经济形势及外交走向

本文论述了普京执政以来的俄罗斯政治经济形势及外交走向.政治形势趋向稳定,经济形势有所好转,外交走向日益明朗.俄罗斯开始进入一个由乱转治的历史转折新时期.在政治方面俄罗斯实现了新旧政权的平稳过渡,调整了政权结构,打击了车臣分裂主义势力,缓解了社会矛盾,维护了国家统一;在经济方面修正了经济改革路线,调整了经济政策,治理并改善了经营和投资环境,促进了经济增长;在外交方面维护了叶利钦后期外交政策的连续性,寻找了自己在世界多极化新格局中的位置,以本民族利益为中心调整了外交政策,加强了与独联体国家的联系,改善了同西方大国的关系,推进了与东方国家的关系.但是,由于普京的内外政策尚未完全定型,改革的道路崎岖不平,经济缺乏增长的坚实基础,此外,国力锐减又限制了与西方大国外交活动的空间,所以俄罗斯的社会经济发展仍会遇到一定的阻力与困难.     

论当前中美俄三边关系新特征和新趋舅

国际金融危机以来,中美俄三边关系进入以合作为主的新阶段。在普京重新出任总统后,美俄能否在欧洲反导问题上形成共识,将成为影响美俄关系发展的重要因素。未来,中美俄三边关系将会是各国在争取自身战略利益的过程中不断寻求妥协,将彼此间的竞争控制在规则允许的范围内。基于美国实力相对衰弱、俄中实力上升、解决全球性和地区问题上需要合作等因素,三国关系仍可能以继续保持建设性合作的基本态势向前发展。     

美国“新门罗主义”拉美政策及面临的挑战

自特朗普政府上任以来,美国对拉美政策奉行“新门罗主义”,加大了对拉美国家的干预,反映在经济、政治和安全等领域,如鼓噪“美国优先”,大打“贸易牌”“移民牌”,使前任奥巴马政府与古巴关系正常化的努力出现全面倒退,甚至拒绝承认委内瑞拉民选总统马杜罗而另行“任命”一个代理总统瓜伊多等。当今世界处于百年未有之大变局,拉美政治、经济格局也经历着深刻变化。中国、俄罗斯等在拉美的影响力不断增强。“一带一路”倡议在拉美落地生根,深化了中拉政治、经济互信;俄罗斯强硬支持委内瑞拉加剧了美俄博弈,导致美国“后院失火”的可能性增大,迫使特朗普深度调整美国对拉美政策。这一政策调整对美国究竟意味着全球战略扩张还是战略收缩,值得探讨。特朗普的拉美政策不仅会影响美拉关系及美拉双方的发展,也将影响中拉关系的发展。本文尝试对美国“新门罗主义”拉美政策的现状、原因和影响进行分析,并考察其面临的挑战。