A Future US Defense Program in an Era of Great Power Competition

The Great Power Competition requires a new defense posture that adapts to the exigencies of the Russia-Ukraine war and the rise of China. A successful defense posture will necessarily require a reexamination of US defense strategy, and, importantly, the level of resources devoted by the US and its allies to national defense. A defense real growth commitment should be initiated now and sustained for as long as this more competitive and threatening security environment remains in place     

Ideological Polarity and Balancing in Great Power Politics

This article examines the international effects of a variable that has yet to be studied in a systematic manner in the international relations literature: the number of prominent, distinct ideological groups that are present in a particular system, which is a variable that I label “ideological polarity.” My basic argument is that systems in which the great powers are divided into one, two, or three or more ideological groups (or “ideological unipolarity,” “ideological bipolarity,” or “ideological multipolarity,” respectively) have very different dynamics, including major variations in overall threat perceptions among the great powers and the efficiency of the balancing process against perceived dangers. The effects of ideological polarity explain key outcomes that analyses based on power polarity cannot. I test the argument by examining great power relations in two cases: the decades after the Napoleonic Wars and the years leading up to the Second World War. Both periods were multipolar in terms of power but varied in terms of ideological polarity. The result was significant variations in states’ core security policies for reasons consistent with the argument.     

现实主义的反思--《大国政治的悲剧》一书评介

自国际关系理论真正成为一门学科以来 ,现实主义理论就以其朴素中透出深刻与说服力的风格一直占据着重要地位 ,在美国学术界 ,就曾涌现出汉斯·摩根索与肯尼斯·沃尔兹这样具有划时代意义的大师级学者。摩根索作为现实主义理论的一代鼻祖 ,其强调国际关系中权力或力量 (ｐｏｗｅｒ)①这一概念的传统一直被继承下来 ;到了沃尔兹 ,则在强调权力本身的同时 ,还注重力量的对比和结构对国际体系的影响作用 ,这便是结构现实主义理论。美国ＷＷ诺顿公司 2 0 0 1年出版了芝加哥大学教授、著名国际关系理论学者约翰·米尔斯海默的著作《大国政治的悲…     

新时代中国的共同利益论与大国责任论

自党的十八大以来,中国国际战略发生了诸多重要变化,在思想、理念和战略方面都开拓了新的局面、拓展了新的方向.可以说,新时代中国的共同利益论和大国责任论是在长期的历史积淀下形成的,满足于中国和平发展的创新性理念.中国的共同利益论和大国责任论各有其发展逻辑,但又在新时代的新理念新思想新战略当中不断交融、相与为一.在这个层面上,共同利益与大国责任的对接实际蕴含着以下三个维度的内容:中国共同利益论的“大国责任导向”;中国大国责任论的“共同利益导向”;国际战略是共同利益与大国责任对接的依托.     

Drone Warfare in Counterterrorism and Normative Change: US Policy and the Politics of International Law

The use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) or drones in counterterrorism has changed the face of warfare and is challenging international law on a number of levels. This article assesses some of those challenges in the context of the Obama administration’s justifications to use drones for targeted killing. It focuses on the US as a norm entrepreneur that purposefully works to alter prevalent norms related to the use of drones in counterterrorism efforts. The article analyses normative developments and the meaning-in-use of existing legal provisions that are invoked to justify US policy in this area. By focusing on norm entrepreneurs, this article moves away from purely structural accounts of normative change towards a stronger emphasis on actors and the role of agency. Rather than understanding US drone policy as violating international law, this article argues that the Obama administration was acting as a norm entrepreneur in its counterterrorism efforts, aiming to change the meaning of a number of international legal concepts to justify its policy decisions.     

Great Power Struggles

International order is the norm,standards and corresponding guaranteeing mechanism,decision-making process,and rule of procedures established by members of the international system to coordinate and deal with various international affairs,in order to maintain stability and the normal operation of the international system.As an international public product,international order is usually supplied by the major actors of the international system,i.e.the great powers.     

Great Power Relations

Lu: We must have a good grasp of the world scene while talkingabout the global trend in 2004. The recent development of major powerrelations demonstrates that since the Iraq war did not break the cooper-ation among big powers, the United States, Russia, European nations,Japan, China and India will continue their cooperation and even estab-lish closer ties in the coming, years. In the decisive period of"reshaping" of global trends, it seems inevitable for all countries in theworld to have co…     

The Coming Sino-U.S. Clash？ --A Review of The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

Eight years ago, Professor John J. Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago argued that a Sino-U.S. confrontation was inevitable in the first 20 years of the 21st century. In the light of the 20 years＇ development in Northeast Asia since the end of the Cold War, however, all scenarios and explanations given in The Tragedy of Great Power Politics are incorrect.     

信息时代背景下的网络战与国际政治

人类社会已经步入信息时代。互联网络对国际社会带来巨大冲击 ,各国为了维护“信息主权” ,加大了对“软国力”的追求。网络战是信息时代的重要产物 ,它的出现和发展同样对国际政治产生重大影响。     

叶利钦时代美国对俄罗斯政治的影响

由于历史和现实原因,叶利钦时代美国对俄罗斯政治的影响深远。这种影响经历了美国帮助叶利钦巩固政权、支持叶利钦确立俄罗斯发展方向和维护叶利钦政权延续3个阶段。叶利钦时代美国推动俄朝西方民主制度转变是美对俄政策的主要内容和目标。每当俄罗斯国内经济和政治危机加深,美国就会加强对俄罗斯内政的干预。俄罗斯国内政治进程遭受挫折反而会加强美国内反对把俄作为战略伙伴的趋势。美国对俄实施经济援助是基于经济市场化对政治民主化具有促进作用的构想。美国把援俄当作影响俄国内局势、增强叶利钦政治地位的重要手段。美国对俄国内改革的支持主要体现在对叶利钦的支持上,并对俄罗斯人事变动施加压力。     

How Democracies Respond to Terrorism: Regime Characteristics,Symbolic Power and Counterterrorism

While the academic study of counterterrorism has gained momentum in recent years, it still suffers from major theoretical weaknesses. One of the most prominent shortcomings is an absence of theories that can effectively explain the factors that shape the counterterrorism policies of democratic regimes. The present study attempts to fill this theoretical void in two ways. First, it proposes an analytical framework for a classification of counterterrorism policies. Second, it presents a theoretical framework that strives to uncover the factors that have influenced the struggle against domestic terrorism in democratic regimes. The analyses, which have used a unique and comprehensive dataset that documents counterterrorism policies in eighty-three democracies, show that the robustness of the regime's democratic foundations as well as the symbolic effect of terrorism are major forces in shaping the democratic response to it, while the direct impact of terrorism is less influential than assumed in the literature.     

国际政治经济形势正在经历巨变

2008北京奥运的完美落幕进一步突出了中国改革开放以来的发展成就,标志着中国的国力、国势、国运进入新的上升轨道,中国与世界的关系再度成为国际热点话题。中国的发展、崛起将引起国际格局、国际体系发生什么样的变化?在变化中的世界,尤其是在中国发展本身就构成国际变局重要组成部分、国际上"中国威胁论"及"中国责任论"等此起彼伏的情况下,中国又面临着什么样的新任务、需要确立怎样的国家大战略、做出何种新的战略选择?要不要居安思危,继续坚持韬光养晦?对这些问题,不仅精英层在严肃思考,普通民众也极为关切。鉴此,《现代国际关系》杂志社2008年8月31日以"‘奥运后时代’中国与世界的关系"为题举办研讨会,邀请京津两地20多位相关领域专家、学者就上述问题展开深入讨论。现将会议主要观点辑录如下,以飨读者。     

The Pattern and Trends of International Politics in the Post-Crisis Era

In the 1990s, the dramatic changes in the Soviet Union and East Europe put an end to the Cold War stand-off between the United States and the Soviet Union. The world entered the post-Cold War era with the United States as the world＇s sole superpower. In the 21st century, the outbreak of the 9/11 terrorist attacks brought the United States into two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.     

印度的大国之路

20世纪90年代末期以来,印度积极调整对外战略,努力发展经济、军事和科技,加快实现世界大国战略目标的步伐。然而,受经济、政治、军事基础条件的制约,印度实现世界大国战略的道路也将是漫长的。     

Identity,Insecurity, and Great Power Politics:The Tragedy of German Naval Ambition Before the First World War

Why did Germany pursue naval expansion at the turn of the twentieth century? This question has long puzzled scholars of international security, who consider German naval ambition to be an instance of suboptimal arming—a decision that decreased Germany's overall security and risked the survival of the German state. This article argues that the social desire to be recognized as a world power guided Germany's decision to challenge British naval hegemony. From the beginning of its naval planning, Germany had one clear aim: a powerful fleet of battleships stationed in the North Sea would alter the political relationship with Britain in such a way that it could no longer ignore Germany's claim to world power status. Reconceptualizing Germany's naval ambition as a struggle for recognition elucidates the contradictions at the center of German naval strategy, explaining how the doomed policy could proceed despite its certain failure. The article concludes that the power-maximizing practices of great powers should be seen as an important component of identity construction and an understudied dimension of contemporary security practice.     

普京的大国外交战略

普京上台后，秉承灵活、务实的外交原则，对俄罗斯的外交战略进行了调整。普京的大国外交战略是全方位、多层次的：增强国家实力，以此为基点和归宿积极推进大国外交战略；改善地缘环境，做地区强国；积极开展全方位外交，做世界大国。     

强权政治与巴勒斯坦问题

强权政治是封建帝国、殖民主义和霸权主义者给中东留下的毒菌,长期影响中东国际关系的正常发展.在中东的核心问题——巴勒斯坦问题的形成和发展过程中充斥着强权政治和实力原则.在当前的中东和平进程中,强权政治仍然发挥作用.正确认识强权政治对巴以和谈的影响,有利于推进中东和平进程,有利于中东国际关系的健康发展.