当前巴基斯坦的去极端化实践研究

南亚伊斯兰极端主义的发展与地区冲突、国家建构、民族分离主义密切联系,具有跨国性、联动性等典型特征。南亚有关国家围绕打击伊斯兰极端主义地区合作的加强、对伊斯兰极端主义和恐怖主义采取不同策略已取得一定成效,但仍面临诸多严峻挑战。南亚国家在不同程度上展开了去极端化实践,相较于其他国家,巴基斯坦的去极端化工作较为成型且取得了一定成效,是南亚国家去极端化实践典型案例。巴基斯坦通过反恐立法、宗教学校教育改革、对极端分子改造、反洗钱合作及与南盟和中国的去极端化国际合作等方式,积极促进该国的去极端化发展。巴基斯坦的去极端化实践对于其他南亚国家也具有一定的参考与借鉴意义。     

巴基斯坦的战略地位与中巴关系的未来

巴基斯坦在中国的周边环境和外交中具有重要的战略地位。作为中国通往西亚和中东的重要桥梁和南亚地区战略平衡和稳定的重要角色，巴基斯坦对中国具有独特的商业、安全和战略价值。中巴关系的未来发展一方面取决于政治外交、经济贸易、军事安全和人文交流这四个方面的内在发展，同时也受到印度和美国这两个外部因素的影响。巩固和发展中巴全天候战略合作伙伴关系是两国共同的战略选择。未来几年，双边贸易和投资将有较快的增长，两国的民间交流和文化关系有望得到较大的发展，在地区多边组织和机制中的合作也将进一步得到加强。     

Do nuclear weapons affect the guns-butter trade-off? Evidence on nuclear substitution from Pakistan and beyond

Scholars have argued that acquiring nuclear weapons should allow states the luxury of exiting conventional arms races. In turn, a decreased budgetary focus on conventional arms should make possible greater spending on social welfare. I contest this logic of nuclear substitution by examining its most likely exponent, Pakistan. As a poor, under-developed state, a nuclear Pakistan should have welcomed the opportunity to cease its arms race with India, and spend greater sums on its population's welfare. Instead, I show Pakistan has doubled down on its pre-nuclear conventional posture, mainly because of its revisionism over Kashmir. More generally, I show nuclear substitution should happen only rarely: when a state is satisfied with the territorial status-quo, and its security challenges are amenable to pure nuclear deterrence. An empirical overview of conventional postures in Britain, China, France, India, Israel, the Soviet Union and the United States shows these conditions are met rarely, and never sustained. The argument has implications concerning the marginal welfare effects of nuclear weapons, the stability-instability paradox in South Asia and the standoff between Iran and the West.     

印度-澳大利亚海洋合作:动力与制约

印度和澳大利亚近年来不断加强海洋合作。这主要表现在举行联合海军演习、建立海洋对话机制、推动地区海洋治理等方面。两国之所以不断加强海洋合作,主要因为双方都调整了海洋战略、均希望制衡中国、促进经贸合作以及应对海上非传统安全威胁。另一方面,由于双方全球外交战略存在差异、对中国的看法并不完全一致、印度不满澳大利亚发展与巴基斯坦的关系,以及印澳距离较远和经济关系不密切,两国在进行海洋合作时会受到一定制约。不过,由于双方不存在根本性矛盾,共同利益远大于分歧,两国未来还会进一步加强海洋合作。     

发展新世纪中国与巴基斯坦的战略关系

本文回顾了中国和巴基斯坦“全天候”战略合作伙伴关系的现实性来源，分析在冷战期间中巴双边关系的安全合作动因，并探讨在新世纪拓展与调整这种特殊关系的必要和可能，目的在于改善安全观念，取得符合时代特点的更大范围的双赢呸及多赢。     

The CICIR Forum 2011 International Symposium： A Summary

The CICIR Forum 2011 International Symposium was held between the 6th and the 11th of September 2011 at Hotel Nikko New Century in Beijing. The symposium’s theme was "China and Asia: Prospects for Mutual Development". Nearly 100 scholars took part, with representatives from the U.S., France, Russia, Japan, South Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, India, Singapore, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Uzbekistan along with Chinese scholars and officials and academics from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the China Institute of International Studies, Tsinghua University, Renmin University, Fudan     

Diplomacy of Estrangement: The Dealings of the United States with Pakistan before 9/11

Diplomatic correspondence between Washington and the American Embassy in Islamabad published by the National Security Archive shows that during the last 35 years of the twentieth century American diplomacy toward Pakistan faced a mutually de-escalating relationship. Pakistan wanted American economic and military assistance as well as support in its conflicts with India. The United States was ready to aid Pakistan, but only so far as Islamabad respected American demands. These focused on containing Soviet influence in the region and, more recently, fighting al-Qaeda and the Taliban. The United States also asked Pakistan to refrain from manufacturing nuclear weapons. To enforce this policy, successive American administrations showered Pakistan with sanctions. These sanctions were lifted again and again, because they undercut American diplomatic influence with the Pakistani government. Washington did not intend to support Pakistan in its conflicts with India. Pakistan let down the United States by not using its leverage over the Taliban to capture Osama Bin Laden. Mistrust resulting from this roller coaster relationship should have warned American diplomats not to take Pakistan's support in the war in Afghanistan against al-Qaeda and the Taliban for granted.     

The Use of Force—Stability and Instability: India,Pakistan, and China

This article evaluates the source of instability and stability in the India-Pakistan dyad and the Sino-Indian dyad. Challenging the dominant thesis that “means determine ends,” the article posits that the use of force by Pakistan renders the India-Pakistan relationship unstable, whereas the Sino-Indian relationship is significantly more stable because of the absence of force. The difference in the state of stability in both dyads is because the weaker state, Pakistan in its conflict with India has failed to accept the verdict of its military defeats. This failure to internalize irreversible military outcomes makes Pakistan particularly susceptible to employing forcible solutions to settle its dispute with India over Kashmir. The reality reverses in the Sino-Indian territorial dispute, in that India has implicitly accepted its military loss against China in 1962 and charted a diplomatic pathway in resolving the boundary dispute.     

美国的南亚战略与中印关系

2011年是奥巴马政府推行新的南亚战略的关键一年。从美国的观点来看,南亚之所以重要是因为反恐是美国的头号战略目标,但奥巴马政府上台后谋求一系列改变,美国选民也希望看到与小布什政府时期不同的战略,其中显然包括了反恐这一领域。对奥巴马来说,要实现其在上次大选所许的承诺,恐怕阿富汗是绕不过的一关,也是外界可能赖以评判其新战略的关键。在这个重要的时刻,美国军方果然不负当局的希望,于5月1日给华盛顿带来了击毙本·拉登的好消息。该消息的地缘政治效应扩散之际,奥巴马宣布了美军从阿富汗开始撤军,初步勾勒出美国的阿富巴战略。本文拟从此点切入,进而讨论中国和印度这两个本地区大国在维护地区稳定方面开展合作的前景。     

Contemplating Peace between India and Pakistan

India-Pakistan relations are at an inflection point with India’s dramatic revocation of Kashmir’s autonomy and its desired objective to transform the nature of the Kashmir conflict from a “bilateral” (involving Pakistan) to a “unilateral” status (excluding Pakistan). Pakistan, on the other hand, has embarked on a diplomatic offensive making the case against India’s majoritarian politics in Kashmir as detrimental not only to the Kashmiris but also to the strategic stability between the two rivals. This article reasons that India’s and Pakistan’s dominant zero-sum strategies—premised on winning while ensuring the other’s loss—are least likely to come to fruition. Given the present nature of ties, the way forward is for the two states to engage in a minimalist framework where mutual interests, as opposed to dominant positions, are put forth as a basis for engagement. Second, engagement more than agreement should be the short- to medium-term goal. Finally, any talk during this time on freezing the Kashmir conflict is least likely to bring any long-term dividends for peace and stability between the two regional adversaries.     

试论发展中巴关系的重要性

巴基斯坦是我们的重要邻国,在穆斯林世界中有着特殊的地位,而且巴基斯坦地理位置极具战略价值;进一步巩固和发展中巴关系既是中国稳定周边地区、为改革开发和现代化建设塑造良好外部环境的需要,也是中国致力于推进世界多极化,实现和平崛起的需要;中巴关系仍然是中国对南亚政策的重要基石。     

中巴战略合作伙伴关系：相互认知、特点及发展前景

中巴建交60年来，经过双方政府和人民的共同努力，两国成为和谐相处的好邻居、相互支持的好朋友、互利合作的好伙伴和患难与共的好兄弟。中巴战略合作伙伴关系具有战略性、全面性、稳定性和持久性的特点，建立在共同利益和深厚民意的基础上，因而有着广阔的发展前景。     

《中巴自由贸易协定》原产地规则研究

本文从<中巴自由贸易协定>原产地的规则入手,全面系统地分析了中巴自由贸易区的原产地规则.通过这一分析,我们可以看出中巴自由贸易区采用40%从价百分比作为原产地判定的基本标准,同时双方还可根据需要制定特定产品原产地标准.     

简析20世纪巴基斯坦与伊朗的关系

巴基斯坦和伊朗分别是南亚和西亚地区有着重要影响的国家。从巴基斯坦独立至20世纪结束,巴伊两国保持一种较为紧密的战略合作关系。尽管两国关系发展并非一帆风顺,也存在不少有争议的问题,但是,大部分时段内,共同的战略利益使得巴基斯坦与伊朗都致力于弥合他们之间的分歧,并努力加固联系彼此之间关系的纽带。考察巴基斯坦与伊朗两国关系的历史发展可以看出,保持一种密切的战略合作关系符合这两国的国家利益。     

The insecurities of weaponised education: a critical discourse analysis of the securitised education discourse in North-West Pakistan

This article presents a critical discourse analysis of the discourse surrounding education, international development and security in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, North-West Pakistan. The article notes the dissonance between a discourse emphasising global security and the experienced insecurity faced by schools and students in North-West Pakistan, under attack from the Pakistani Taliban (the most notable attack being the shooting of Malala Yousafzai in 2012). This analysis examines the impact of securitisation on the discursive production of the political realm, exploring whether securitisation engenders security or insecurity. Three key findings emerge. First, the purpose of securitised education becomes fixed on ‘mindset transformation’ from an extremist mindset to an educated mindset. Second, students are transformed into soldiers fighting against extremism as education becomes weaponised. Third, the discourse blurs the distinction between the uneducated and extremist, and the figure of the ‘threatening, uneducated Other’ emerges. The discursive production of such oppositional subjectivities throws into question whether the international community’s intervention in education in North-West Pakistan, in order to improve security and fight extremism, is not in fact producing greater insecurity.     

阿富汗大变局:地缘政治和安全格局的演变

当前,阿富汗正在经历重大变局.阿富汗塔利班(阿塔)成功卷土重来,并且完成临时政府组建.尽管仍有多重挑战,但阿塔执政已不存在根本性威胁.这引发阿富汗地缘政治格局和地区安全形势的深度调整.在地缘政治格局方面,整体呈现"美国西方影响力下降,地区国家影响力上升"这一"东升西降"趋势.美国正在从"局内人"变为"局外人",但仍将发...     

Islam,Militancy, and Politics in Pakistan: Insights From a National Sample

We use data from an innovative nationally representative survey of 6,000 Pakistanis in April 2009 to study beliefs about political Islam, Sharia, the legitimacy and efficacy of jihad, and attitudes towards specific militant organizations. These issues are at the forefront of U.S. policy towards Pakistan. Four results shed new light on the politics of militancy and Islamic identity in Pakistan. First, there is no relationship between measures of personal religiosity and the likelihood a respondent expresses highly sectarian sentiments. Second, militarized jihad is widely seen as legitimate in Pakistan but there are substantial regional differences in the acceptance of militarized jihad. Third, attitudes towards militant groups vary dramatically across groups, particularly when it comes to the efficacy of their actions. Fourth, while Pakistanis express massive levels of support for Sharia law, this is driven by its perceived connection with good governance, not by sympathy with the goals of militant groups claiming to implement it.     

Containing Pakistan: Engaging the Raja-Mandala in South-Central Asia

Recent events have refocused attention on Pakistan's role as an epicenter of global Islamist terror and called into question Islamabad's reliability as an ally in the fight against a resurgent Taliban and the hunt for Osama bin Laden. Pakistan in fact suffers from abiding structural pathologies that make it a questionable Western ally at best. In its foreign policy toward Pakistan, the United States would do well to consider the ancient Indian geopolitical concept of the raja-mandala (“ruler circle”), which seeks to balance opposing spheres of influence and exploit the tensions between them. This concept provides the key to containing and eventually eliminating South-Central Asian terror.     

美国南亚平衡战略的变化与延续——从小布什到奥巴马

布什政府南亚战略的中心议题是在南亚地区的反恐,与南亚主要国家（印巴）发展关系,应对核问题。无论是共和党的小布什还是民主党的奥巴马,其南亚政策都围绕着美国在南亚的战略目标（应对核问题、与南亚主要国家（印巴）发展关系、反恐）,而印巴在美国的三种政策目标中各有不可取代的优势,这就决定了美国必然对印巴两国采取平衡政策。     

中巴贸易能源通道构想与前景

巴基斯坦以其特有的地缘优势可望在未来地区能源供求上发挥重要作用。由于中巴长期以来的友好关系和现实利益的需要,巴基斯坦似乎更愿意成为中国的贸易和能源通道。本文主要从三方面展开分析:巴方设想的贸易能源通道的构成要素;建立中巴贸易能源通道的重要意义;实现贸易能源通道面临的挑战。