The Municipalization of Enterprise-Owned “Social Assets” in Russia

One British and two Russian social scientists examine the causes and consequences of the transfer of responsibility for funding of social services from enterprises to municipalities in Russia. The study is part of a larger project, funded by the European Union, on the social impact of economic reform in Russia. The primary sources of data are official governmental statistics, data compiled by international organizations, and extensive surveys conducted among enterprise administrators, municipal officials, and the mass public. Regional differences are highlighted by the data; the authors offer recommendations for improvements in the financing of social services.     

Does electoral fraud spread? The expansion of electoral manipulation in Russia

In this paper, we argue that the occurrence of electoral manipulation in Russia has been driven, in part, by diffusion across neighboring raions through emulation, incentives, and networks. Presumably, in Putin’s Russia all local authorities have some incentives to deliver a high number of votes to United Russia, the “party of power”. However, the perceived pressure to deliver ever higher levels of support for Putin’s party arguably increases considerably if one’s raion is located in a region marked by extraordinarily high turnout and high vote share for United Russia. Conversely, the absence of perceived competition to curry executive favor through delivering votes and networks of uncorrupted local authorities, as well as local opposition organizations working to combat electoral fraud, may help explain the absence of fraud among raions located in regions marked by clean elections. Our quantitative analyses suggest that a “neighborhood effect” – the existence of manipulated raions within a region – strongly influences the likelihood that raions are manipulated. Moreover, although results are more mixed, spatial autocorrelation analysis suggests that turnout levels in raions are influenced by the turnout in proximate raions.     

Testing for sources of electoral competition under authoritarianism: an analysis of Russia’s gubernatorial elections

What drives electoral competition in competitive authoritarian regimes? Most scholarship has assumed that the outcome of these elections is decided by regime manipulation alone. Using three rounds of newly reinstated gubernatorial elections in Russia’s regions, I test this assumption. I identify three distinct measures of competition calibrated to authoritarian elections and assess whether voter preferences or regime manipulation best explain the degree of electoral competition. Relying on new data on protests across Russia’s regions, I find that regions with high protest activity have more contested elections with narrower margins of victory. The results also confirm recent scholarship highlighting the importance of voter turnout for delivering pro-regime victories.     

Russia in the Post-Western World: The End of the Normalization Paradigm?

If the relative decline of the West and the great power shift defined as "the rise of the rest" are approaching, there are important implications for Russia's foreign policy. Drawing on the work of Russian and Western commentators, this article offers a preliminary assessment of the post-Western world's implications for Russia and its foreign policy. The challenge of the emerging post-Western world and the manifestations of the West's declining hard and soft power dimensions are described; several schools of Russian thought on current international conditions and Russia's own domestic capabilities are identified and analyzed; and Russia's potential to act as a post-Western great power is assessed.     

Uzbekistan's ‘spirit’ of self-reliance and the logic of appropriateness: TAPOich and interaction with Russia

The article looks at Uzbekistan's political economy from the perspective of a logic of appropriateness, an approach that takes rules to be the underlying principle of action. The rules are mostly in line with a ‘spirit’ of self-reliance (mustaqillik), which has shaped Tashkent's international engagement since independence. From the perspective of those rules, the article reveals some important features of Russian–Uzbek relations, particularly the difficult and often tense negotiations over the future of the Tashkent Aviation Production Association (TAPOich). Self-reliance and the rules by which it was comprised were not, in the end, conducive to long-term cooperation with Russia in the aviation sector, where collaboration was first and foremost necessary.     

Russia’s idea of the multipolar world order: origins and main dimensions

Contemporary international relations are rife with the ideological struggle over the potential nature of the rapidly changing world order. Two distinct paradigmatic positions have surfaced. One champions economic, cultural, and political globalization conducted under the leadership of the Western world. The other advocates a more particularistic approach that fends for a balance of interests, multiplicity of politico-cultural forms and multiple centers of international influence. The latter doctrine, often referred to as the multipolar world theory, is the subject of this paper. The discussion argues that the idea of a multipolar world order has emerged as Russia’s main ethical and ideological position advanced in the international arena. Its philosophical tenets buttress Russian society intellectually at home, providing the expedients to pursue the country’s foreign policy goals abroad. The paper examines a substantial value package with roots in both Russian and Western philosophy that sustains the multipolar world order theory.     

The target strikes back: explaining countersanctions and Russia’s strategy of differentiated retaliation

This article analyzes Russia’s retaliatory food embargo, explaining why the Russian government banned some imports from the West but refrained from banning a range of equally plausible others. I argue that Moscow was following a strategy of differentiated retaliation when selecting which imports to embargo. The countersanctions were not designed to mete out equal punishment on all members of the sanctioning coalition. Rather, Russia purposefully crafted the policy to inflict greater economic damage on some states than others. Utilizing an original data-set on all agricultural and food products that Russia imports, I demonstrate that, ceteris paribus, imports of sizeable commercial value to countries the Kremlin has long viewed as the mainstays of anti-Russian policies were far more likely to have been banned. In contrast, the evidence shows that Moscow stayed its hand in dealing with Europe’s major powers. This analysis both illuminates the policy objectives being pursued by a leading actor in world politics, as well as lays the groundwork for theoretically understanding the geostrategic, political, and economic drivers of countersanctions.     

Dynamics of regime personalization and patron–client networks in Russia, 1999–2014

Many comparative scholars classify personalist regimes as a distinct category of nondemocratic rule. To measure the process of regime personalization, and to distinguish such a process from overall authoritarian reversal, is difficult in comparative context. Using the Russian political regime in 1999–2014 as a case study, we examine the dynamics of regime personalization over time. Relying on original data on patron–client networks and expert surveys assessing the policy influence of the key members of the ruling coalition, we argue that having more clients, or clients who are more powerful, increases the power of patrons – and that where the patron is the ruler, the resulting measure is an indication of the level of personalization of the regime. We trace regime personalization from the changes in political influence of the president's associates in his patron–client network versus that of other elite patron–client networks. We find that as early as 2004, the Russian regime can be regarded as personalist, and is strongly so from 2006 onward.     

Russia’s economic policy in 2015–2016: the imperative of structural reform

In the aftermath of the global economic crisis, we have seen uneven development in the leading advanced and emerging economies, new models of economic growth that vary from country to country, uncertain prospects for globalization and challenges of “regional globalization,” looming currency re-configurations, as well as shifting energy price dynamics and their influence on political and economic prospects of particular states. This paper discusses current challenges for social and economic policy in the context of the history of the past 30 years. With reference to Russia, it focuses on a new growth model, structural transformation (including import-substitution issues), economic dynamics, fiscal and monetary concerns, and social issues. It concludes by addressing the priorities of economic policy.     

Securitizing “spiritual-moral values” in Russia

This article examines how “spiritual-moral values” (SMV) became securitized, or defined as a matter of national security in Russia. I analyze speech acts to show how moves to securitize SMV spread from the political fringe to the center of power, and from individual sectors to the strategic level. This “moral turn” in Russian politics is not merely a superficial attempt of the elite to distract the masses and rally the conservative electorate. The securitization of SMV has wider implications: It is, in the most direct way, the regime’s way of preventing a “color revolution.” By introducing a “state of siege” to the sphere of fundamental moral values, this securitization aids the construction of a national identity that is incompatible with basic human rights. An existential threat is constructed in order to justify extraordinary measures and establish a new social contract in which modernization is sacrificed at the altar of security.     

Break Out of Russia: Miķelis Valters and the National Issue in Early Latvian Socialism

This article deals with the political thought of Mi?elis Valters (1874–1968), whose early writings are considered to contain the first clearly articulated argument for independent and democratic Latvia. Until now, Valters's writings haven′t been analyzed in their own historical and intellectual context, being subjected to Marxist and nationalist ‘proleptic mythologies’ instead. However, such an analysis provides us with important insights about the intellectual origins of Latvian political nationalism. Valters's early argument for independent Latvia derives much from the legacy of Russian narodnichestvo and from German liberal legal theory, rather than from Austro-Marxism, as suggested by previous commentators.     

Russia’s energy relations in Southeastern Europe: an analysis of motives in Bulgaria and Greece

Although officially Russian state-owned energy companies operate as independent entities, their actions often lead to suspicion that they are acting as a tool of Russian state foreign policy. Countries on the southeastern borders of Europe – Bulgaria and Greece – are prime examples of where this might be the case, since they not only have a central position in Russia’s plans to penetrate European markets through new transport infrastructure but are also part of competing plans for routing non-Russian gas to Western markets. The main focus of the present research is on the natural gas and oil sectors, as these are the traditional foundation of Russian energy exports to Europe. The aim of this paper is thus to provide an objective, evidence-based analysis of Russian activities in the natural gas and oil sectors of Greece and Bulgaria in order to establish whether its actions have been implicitly or explicitly politicized and have served to strengthen Russian influence in the region.     

NATO–Russia security challenges in the aftermath of Ukraine conflict: managing Black Sea security and beyond

NATO’s relationship with the Soviet Union and then Russia has been central to defining the European regional and global security configuration for decades. This article explores the potential consequences of the Ukrainian conflict for the current and future NATO–Russia relationship. The analysis focuses on defining specific challenges and risks for NATO and Russia in managing the evolving security environment of the Black Sea region. The author offers an assessment of the potential for future NATO–Russia clashes or cooperation in the Black Sea, and for broader regional and global security. Some recommendations are suggested for managing the future NATO–Russia relationship during this period of heightened uncertainty and risk.     

Charitable giving and the future of NGOs in Russia: what can we learn from individual data?

This study seeks to discuss the survivability of charitable nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in Russia without foreign funding. We use cross-sectional data from a quantitative household survey conducted in April 2016 to investigate common giving patterns of Russians. We find that Russians prefer to give directly to people in need rather than to NGOs; the donations are small, spontaneous, and irregular; they are mainly targeted to supporting the poor and the sick. Involvement in religious activities and higher self-assessed income are two factors that contribute most to the probability of donating. Educated and younger donors are more likely to donate to NGOs compared to donating to particular people/families. The study suggests that private donations to NGOs will decline if no changes in public policy are made. NGOs supporting education, environment, culture, or civil organizations seem to be worst hit.     

Private Farming in Russia: An Emerging Success?

The emergence of privately owned peasant farms in the early 1990s was one of the most important reforms in Russia's agrarian sector. Initially failing to become a significant food producer, during its second decade private farming emerged as a success in agrarian reform. This success is analyzed using two levels of analysis. At the macro-level, economic performance, government policy, and AKKOR's relationships with a range of actors are examined. The micro- or household level is examined using survey data from rural households, looking at private farmers' earned income, land holdings, and shifts in employment.     

The politics of federal transfers in Putin’s Russia: regional competition,lobbying, and federal priorities

Most studies of intergovernmental financial flows in the Russian Federation focus on the federal center’s decision-making in determining the direction of these flows. Anecdotal evidence, however, suggests that regional governments employ a variety of tools and strategies to compete over federal transfers. This study uses data on federal transfers during 2002–2012 to examine the factors associated with the politically sensitive share of such transfers occurring in this period. The key findings highlight the importance of administrative capacity and the value of attracting attention from, as well as cultivating relations with, federal officials for shaping decision-making on the distribution of federal transfers. We discuss some specific strategies used by more successful regional governments in attracting additional federal funds.     

The institutionalization of relative advantage: formal institutions,subconstitutional presidential powers,and the rise of authoritarian politics in Russia, 1994–2012

What role do formal institutions play in the consolidation of authoritarian regimes such as the Russian Federation? Oftentimes, it is assumed that autocrats, usually potent presidents, wield informal powers and control far-flung patron–client networks that undermine formal institutions and bolster their rule. After the institutional turn in authoritarianism studies, elections, parties, legislatures, or courts have taken center stage, yet presidencies and public law are still on the margins of this research paradigm. This paper proposes a method for measuring subconstitutional presidential power and its change by federal law, decrees, and Constitutional Court rulings as well as a theoretical framework for explaining when and under which conditions subconstitutional presidential power expands. It is argued that as a result of a gradual, small-scale, and slow-moving process of layering, presidential powers have been accumulated over time. This furthers the institutionalization of presidential advantage toward other federal and regional institutions, which in turn contributes to the consolidation of authoritarianism.     

Continuity and change in instrumentalizing ‘The Precedent’. How Russia uses Kosovo to legitimize the annexation of Crimea

The article contributes to the efforts of understanding Russia’s legitimization endeavours by looking at the policy narratives centred around the so-called Kosovo precedent and the way they were perceived by different actors from Ukraine, Russia, and international experts. The aim of the paper is to scrutinize the process of politicization of contested international norms (in particular, territorial sovereignty and the right to self-determination) in the case of Russia’s legitimacy claims in Ukraine. In assessing the instrumentalization of the ‘Kosovo precedent’ in the Crimea crisis, we focused on three main elements identified in the selected policy narratives: the reinterpretation of history, the humanitarian and ethnic factor and the reinterpretation of Western actions in the Balkans.