PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION VERSUS PROGRAM DESIGN: WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR POLICY "FAILURE"?

Many influential implementation scholars now argue that "street-level" bureaucrats, rather than legislators or high-level administrators, make public policy in the U.S. Such authors as Pressman and Wildavsky cite creaming in employment and training programs as an especially clear example of well-meaning programs that fail when implemented. This paper argues that two of the most significant and lasting of these programs, the U.S. Employment Service and the Manpower Development and Training Act, were designed to encourage creaming. The essay asserts implementation scholars overstate the disconnection between program design and program implementation because they assume there is little disconnection between program legitimation and program design. A better conception of design permits one to perceive that these programs were legitimated on the grounds they would serve a large number of constituents, but were designed to do so by serving employers. The combination of these premises made creaming an imperative of program operation, and the implementors who cream remain faith ful to original program strategy. This finding suggests a redirection of policy research toward a more rlgorous analysis of program design and a better understanding of the relationship between legitimation, design, and implementation.     

Unheeded warning of war: why policymakers ignored the 1990 Yugoslavia estimate*

This article examines the lack of policy response to the 1990 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that predicted the collapse of Yugoslavia. Contrary to common criticisms of estimative intelligence, the NIE was accurate and unambiguous. Why was good intelligence unheeded? For some policymakers, the analysis was not closely tied to their interests and competed with other priorities for attention; for those who were substantive experts, the NIE’s grim message was hard to accept. Moreover, policymakers read intelligence reports in the context of popular concepts – a lingering Cold War lens distorted more than it clarified. Finally, while the NIE made hard-hitting judgments, it did not include any analysis of opportunities to influence the outcome. Rather than pushing an already difficult estimate to the breaking point, including opportunities would likely have increased the odds of policymakers taking action. These lessons have broader implications for analytical tradecraft and the often-challenging relationship between intelligence and policy.     

The Policy of High‐Tech Industry Development: The Case of Location Assessment for Biotech Industry Parks in Taiwan

Biotechnology will be the star industry of the 21^st century, and will also be one of the main focal areas of Taiwan's future industrial development. Many scholars have suggested that the presence of geographical clusters is an important factor that determines an industry's international competitiveness. As an example of the clustering effect, when high‐tech industry was just starting to take off in Taiwan, the establishment of the Hsinchu Science‐Based Industrial Park successfully promoted the upgrading of the industrial structure. The goal of this study is to explore the development of an industrial park location selection model for Taiwan's biotech industry, while considering the influence of the clustering effect, with the ultimate intent of promoting the industry's development. Because clustering factors are certainly not necessarily independent, and may entail a feedback effect, this study uses the analytic network process (ANP) multiple criteria decision‐making (MCDM) model to construct a “biotech park” location selection model, and then determine the optimal location of a biotech park from three alternatives. The results suggest that Taipei City would be the optimal choice for a biotech park. This finding can serve to guide the government's biotech industry development policies.     

Transition in Post-Communist States: Triple or Quadruple?

When the study of transitions moved from Latin America and southern Europe scholars initially assumed that transition in these two regions would be regime-based 'double transitions' of democratisation and marketisation. Gradually, it was accepted by scholars that many post-communist states inherited weak states and institutions, thereby adding a third factor to the transition process of stateness. This 'triple transition' has been largely accepted as sufficient to understand post-communist transitions and, in some cases, includes nationality questions. This article builds on the 'triple transition' by separating the national and stateness questions within its third aspect and argues that although both processes are interlinked they should be nevertheless separated into separate components (democratisation and marketisation are treated separately but are also closely related phenomena). This article argues two points. First, stateness and the nationality question were until recently ignored by scholars because these were not factors in earlier transitions. Secondly, they were ignored because the relationship of nationhood to the civic state is still under-theorised.     

How to argue about the new public management

Hood and Jackson's (1991) distinction between administrative argument and administrative philosophy has been largely overlooked in writings on NPM. This seemingly subtle distinction flows from the more obvious one between “practical argument” and “social scientific explanation.” These terms refer to different scholarly practices. Practical reasoning is a highly-developed form of scholarship in law, public policy, and political theory. Explanation is a highly-developed scholarly activity in political science and related disciplines. The fact that practical argument and explanation are, in principle, complementary scholarly activities in practically-oriented fields such as public management is not a reason to overlook the distinction between them. If scholars writing on NPM made more of this distinction, it might prove easier for their readers to see precisely how social science explanations and practical arguments are interrelated. Discussion of how well claims have been supported would then be facilitated. Also, it would be easier for writers to decide how to engage the NPM literature. Not only would the issues be clearer, but it would also be easier to discuss the merits of alternative approaches to tackling them. If more weight is given to the distinction between practical argumentation and social scientific research by scholars of NPM, an urgent question is: how should the scholarly practice of practical argumentation be characterized?     

Coyote ugly: the deadweight cost of rent seeking for?immigration policy

Many studies use a Harberger triangle method to estimate the immigration surplus to the native born population and conclude that the benefit of immigration is very small in proportion to the size of the US economy and thus the United States does not to stand to lose much if immigration is further restricted. This calculation neglects the rent seeking costs that the US economy bears when immigration policy is politically determined. This study estimates the rent seeking losses that the US economy could suffer if immigration policy were reformed to further close the borders.     

Is Democracy Good for the Poor?

Many scholars claim that democracy improves the welfare of the poor. This article uses data on infant and child mortality to challenge this claim. Cross-national studies tend to exclude from their samples nondemocratic states that have performed well; this leads to the mistaken inference that nondemocracies have worse records than democracies. Once these and other flaws are corrected, democracy has little or no effect on infant and child mortality rates. Democracies spend more money on education and health than nondemocracies, but these benefits seem to accrue to middle- and upper-income groups.     

Comparable Preference Estimates across Time and Institutions for the Court, Congress, and Presidency

Empirically oriented scholars often struggle with how to measure preferences across time and institutional contexts. This article characterizes these difficulties and provides a measurement approach that incorporates information that bridges time and institutions in a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to ideal point measurement. The resulting preference estimates for presidents, senators, representatives, and Supreme Court justices are comparable across time and institutions. These estimates are useful in a variety of important research projects, including research on statutory interpretation, executive influence on the Supreme Court, and Senate influence on court appointments.     

What is the Canon in American Politics? Analyses of Core Graduate Syllabi

Many core graduate-level seminars claim to expose students to their discipline’s “canon.” The contents of this canon, however, can and do differ across departments and instructors. This project employs a survey of core American politics PhD seminar syllabi at highly ranked universities to construct a systematic account of the American politics canon. Our results offer valuable insights into the topics and literature that political scientists consider important and on which future scholars base their work. Our article breaks down the literature into a comprehensive list of topics and subtopics, which allows us to identify both an overall field canon and one for each topic, to assess whether some topics receive more attention than others, and to identify which topics are most clearly defined. We explore the extent to which diverse perspectives and methods are (or are not) taught to young scholars, and, although we identify sets of frequently assigned readings and authors within each topic, we also find considerable variation between seminars.     

Dynamic Ideal Point Estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo for the U.S. Supreme Court, 1953-1999

At the heart of attitudinal and strategic explanations of judicialbehavior is the assumption that justices have policy preferences.In this paper we employ Markov chain Monte Carlo methods tofit a Bayesian measurement model of ideal points for all justicesserving on the U.S. Supreme Court from 1953 through 1999. Weare particularly interested in determining to what extent idealpoints of justices change throughout their tenure on the Court.This is important because judicial politics scholars oftentimesinvoke preference measures that are time invariant. To investigatepreference change, we posit a dynamic item response model thatallows ideal points to change systematically over time. Additionally,we introduce Bayesian methods for fitting multivariate dynamiclinear models to political scientists. Our results suggest thatmany justices do not have temporally constant ideal points.Moreover, our ideal point estimates outperform existing measuresand explain judicial behavior quite well across civil rights,civil liberties, economics, and federalism cases.     

Partisan consequences of low turnout at elections to the European Parliament

Low turnout and potential differences in party preferences between voters and non-voters may affect party vote shares at European Parliament (EP) elections. Of particular concern is the rise of Eurosceptic and populist parties, but scholars do not know whether these would benefit from increased voter mobilization. To address this gap, we simulate the party choices of non-voters at the 2009 and 2014 EP elections. Contrary to analyses of turnout effects at general elections in multiparty systems, our simulations suggest that left-leaning and ideologically moderate parties would gain if turnout went up to levels observed at first-order national elections. And while there is some evidence that populist parties might have benefitted from higher turnout at the 2014 elections (but not in 2009), our findings do not support expectations that either Eurosceptic or Europhile parties’ vote share would be affected by higher turnout.     

A method for estimating the GNP loss from a future oil embargo

This article develops a theoretical model to estimate the loss in GNP to the U.S. economy that would result from a future oil embargo. The model is based on an input-output matrix of the economy, but modifies the traditional input-output analysis in order to take account of conservation and substitution possibilities. Data generated from the 1973–74 embargo is used as a bench mark for this study in order to assure that the model produces reasonable estimates. Based upon estimates of future economic and energy growth, this study concludes that the United States will become increasingly vulnerable to economic damage as a result of a future embargo.This work was begun while the author was employed at the Center of Naval Analyses during the summer of 1974. Financial support for the continuation of this project was received from the Federal Energy Administration, and this paper is a condensed version of a report sent to the FEA. Views expressed in this paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the position of either of the above organizations.     

Dynamic ideal point estimation for the European Parliament, 1980–2009

The European Parliament is one of most prominent substantive applications of NOMINATE to the study of roll call voting outside the U.S., yielding tremendous insights into the voting patterns of the world’s most important transnational parliament. However, this body of research cannot facilitate comparisons of ideological shifts over time, because it exclusively employs scaling models that are static. In this paper, I produce dynamic ideal point estimates for the first six European Parliaments from 1980 to 2009 that can be compared over time. These estimates show a significant amount of ideological shifting for some Members of the European Parliament. I explain the measurement strategy, and compare cross-sectional estimates to existing measures as a validity check. I also offer three applications highlighting the types projects that scholars of the European Parliament might wish to use these dynamic measures to study further.     

Why strategic intelligence analysis has limited influence on American foreign policy

Why does strategic intelligence analysis have limited influence on American foreign policy? Intelligence analysis is frequently disregarded, this paper contends, because it is a duplicated step in the decision-making process and supplements but does not supplant policy assessment. Many intelligence analyses will confirm policy assessments and be redundant or – if the assessments are different – policy-makers will choose their own interpretations over those of intelligence analysts. The findings of this paper provide scholars with important insights into the limits of intelligence analysis in the foreign policy process as well as recommendations for increasing its positive impact on policy.     

Representation or abdication? How citizens use institutions to help delegation succeed

Abstract. Modern democracy requires delegation. One problem with delegation is that principals and agents often have conflicting interests. A second problem is that principals lack information about their agents. Many scholars conclude that these problems cause delegation to become abdication. We reject this conclusion and introduce a theory of delegation that supports a different conclusion. The theory clarifies when interest conflicts and information problems do (and do not) turn delegation into abdication. We conclude by arguing that remedies for common delegation problems can be embedded in the design of electoral, legislative, and bureaucratic institutions. The culmination of our efforts is a simple, but general, statement about when citizens and legislators can (and cannot) control their agents.     

西方学者论马克思主义与儒家思想的会通

西方学者对于儒家思想同马克思主义的关系之研究肇始于费正清的中国学研究,他所提出的"革命学说"认为中国的共产主义革命对于传统文化是一场彻底抛弃与革命,但是这种观点受到墨子刻等西方学者的批评。很多西方学者认为,以毛泽东为代表的中国共产党人,通过将马克思主义和儒家传统思想及中国具体语境相结合,从而实现了马克思主义的中国化,并且提出了儒马关系的"契合论""相融论""暗含论"等观点。西方视角可以为我们提供一定的启示,不过我们更需要立足于中国自身的现实语境和思想语境,进行富有创造力的理论构建和实践活动,从而不断迈向中华民族的伟大复兴。     

Promoting Participation? An Examination of Rulemaking Notification and Access Procedures

This study documents state implementation of mechanisms designed to promote public participation in agency rulemaking. Many scholars have questioned the effectiveness of such mechanisms, arguing that they fail to encourage greater participation or that increased participation does not affect the substance of administrative rules. Using data from a unique survey of state administrators, the author employs multivariate analyses to assess the relationship between these measures and the perceived influence of external actors. The results suggest that critics may understate the importance of public notification and access procedures. These devices are associated with increases in the impact that a wide variety of actors are perceived to have on the content of agency rules.     

The calculus of consent after thirty years

It is shown that the basic normative argument of thecalculus is moored to a collectivistic unanimity norm. As most scholars working in the field of public choice, including the authors of the seminalcalculus, would otherwise reject collectivistic normative premises, a re-interpretation of the status of the unanimity principle of thecalculus seems unavoidable. The paper argues that this can be done if the basic formation of a society is not characterized as starting from a given set of individuals but rather in terms of the formation of clubs. This amounts to the same thing as substituting universalistic ethical premises by particularistic ones which are more in line with standard economic methodology.     

Erste Schritte auf kaum erschlossenem Terrain. Zur Stabilität der Parteiidentifikation in Deutschland

Party identification (PI) is one of the central theoretical concepts in political sociology. Many scholars, however, argue that the lack of stability in observed PI casts serious doubts on its role as an “unmoved mover” ascribed to the concept by the Michigan school. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we argue that perfect stability is not required by the Michigan approach. Rather, PI should be assumed to vary systematically in response to political and extra-political conditions. Second, we show that PI is a latent variable whose stability is massively underestimated if random measurement error is not taken into account. With a Latent Transition Analysis of the GSOEP, we can demonstrate that a) PI is highly stable amongst supporters of the major parties in both East and West Germany, b) that the stability of PI varies somewhat with the degree of political interest, and that c) stability has not declined since the mid-1980s.     

Estimating policy positions using political texts: An evaluation of the Wordscores approach

This paper evaluates a recently developed method for extracting policy positions from political texts, known as Wordscores. This computerized content analysis technique is a potentially powerful tool for scholars interested in the study of political elites, since it promises an easy and efficient way of inferring policy position from texts and speeches. In this article, we provide a systematic evaluation of this promising method. Using Danish manifestos and government speeches from 1945 to 2005, we compare the policy positions extracted using Wordscores with measures of positions from the well-known Comparative Manifesto Project and cross-validate these with party expert surveys. Our analysis shows that the word scoring technique arrives at largely similar estimates to independently derived position measures and produces time series of government positions with high face validity.