Applied Decision Analysis: Utilizing Poliheuristic Theory to Explain and Predict Foreign Policy and National Security Decisions

In recent years, more than 40 articles and chapters have utilized Poliheuristic Theory to analyze critical decisions made by foreign leaders and U.S. presidents. In this paper, I introduce the Poliheuristic Procedure—a series of steps that one can use to explain or predict decisions by world leaders. Subsequent articles in this Symposium present examples of poliheuristic analyses of decisions made by Presidents Carter, Clinton, Gorbachev, Mussaref and Saddam Hussein. These case studies provide strong support for Poliheuristic Theory: leaders use a two-stage process in making decisions: they first use simple heuristics to eliminate alternatives based on the avoid-major-political-loss principle, and then use more analytic calculations in selecting an alternative from a subset of surviving alternatives.     

When and How Parliaments Influence Foreign Policy: The Case of Turkey's Iraq Decision

Turkey's decision on its role in the Iraq war in 2003 illustrates the power—and limits—of parliaments as actors in foreign policy. Traditionally, assemblies are not seen as important players in the foreign policies of parliamentary democracies. Instead, cabinets are generally considered the chief policymaking authorities. If the government enjoys a parliamentary majority, legislatures typically support the cabinet, if they are brought into the process at all. The March 1, 2003 vote by the Turkish parliament to not allow the United States to use Turkey as a base for the Iraq invasion challenges this conventional wisdom on parliamentary influence (in addition to many interest-based explanations of foreign policy). This paper examines this decision in the context of the role of parliaments in foreign policies and explores the relationships between parliamentary influence, leadership, intraparty politics, and public opinion.     

From De-Europeanisation to Anti-Western Populism: Turkish Foreign Policy in Flux

ABSTRACT

Recent Turkish foreign policy (TFP) under the successive AKP governments has seen different populist turns. A clear distinction can be made between the thin and thick populisms of TFP, based on the status of the West. The first decade of AKP rule, when foreign policy was thinly populist, was characterised by steady de-Europeanisation, increasing engagement with regional issues and a decentring of Turkey’s Western orientation. The turn toward thick populism has been characterised by anti-Westernist discourses in which the West is resituated as the ‘other’ of Turkish political identity.     

美国对印度、朝鲜核政策的比较研究：建构主义的视角

冷战结束以来,特别是近十年面对印度和朝鲜发展核力量的努力,美国采取了完全不同的核政策。美国对印度持友善甚至支持的态度,而对朝鲜采取对抗性政策。本文试从温特的身份建构主义并结合语言行为的角度分析,揭示美国形成不同核政策的原因——美国对两国构建起截然不同的身份。冷战后,美印互动促使美国对印度在冷战时期构建起的非敌非友身份向准盟友方向转化,而美朝的互动强化了美国在冷战时期就已经构建起的敌人身份认同。     

The Influence of Advisers and Decision Strategies on Foreign Policy Choices: President Clinton's Decision to Use Force in Kosovo

In the following paper, I analyze the influence of advisers and domestic political factors on President Clinton's decision to use force against Slobodan Milosevic and the Serbs in Kosovo in March 1999. I present an analysis and examination of President Clinton's decision-making process, using press reports, personal speeches, etc. In other words, I attempt to trace the process by which Clinton came to the decision to use force in Yugoslavia. Specifically, using the poliheuristic theory, I argue that President Clinton's decision was influenced by noncompensatory domestic political calculations and the strong influence of his Secretary of State, Madeleine K. Albright. Examining how advisers interact with one another, their status in the advisory group, and the manner in which presidents solicit information from advisers will further our understanding of how, when, and under what conditions national security-level decision makers make decisions.     

俄罗斯的欧洲安全政策:从普京到"梅普组合"

普京时期俄罗斯的欧洲安全政策可以称之为"回归欧洲"政策。尽管普京执政期间该政策取得了一定的成果,但并没有达到预期的战略目标。新的领导核心"梅普组合"形成后,对其欧洲安全政策进行一系列的调整。未来俄罗斯的欧洲安全政策将以追求国家安全和欧洲安全事务平等发言权为目标建构其欧洲安全政策,从战略退缩走向积极防御,将重建"俄控区",运用经济手段,加强对欧洲国家的影响。     

脆弱性、不安全感与印度尼西亚的外交政策——从苏加诺到苏哈托

外交政策在很大程度上是国内政治的延续，作为后殖民国家的印度尼西亚，其国内社会的特性对外交政策的影响尤为显著。这种影响表现在其内部的脆弱性——多样而分裂的族群、宗教、领土等问题，被视为对国家潜在的威胁，因此而产生的不安全感影响了外交政策。其独立自主外交、不结盟政策、对大国的疑虑都是这种脆弱性的体现。在中国对印尼以及东南亚的外交政策中，要充分考虑后者的脆弱性及由此衍生的不安全感。     

Chinazambia and Boliviafranca: A Simulation of Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy

Despite a longstanding focus on the systemic distribution of power in the study of international relations, scholarship during the past 20 years increasingly emphasizes the role of domestic politics in foreign-policy-decision making. This simulation enables participants to experience negotiating an international issue—a territorial dispute between two fictitious states, Chinazambia and Boliviafranca—in the context of this "two-level game" between domestic and international environments. The simulation furnishes a vantage point from which students can assess realist, liberal, and alternative theoretical perspectives on international relations as they affect policy making. The simulation is flexible and can be executed under a variety course contexts, as well as time and participation constraints. Additionally, the simulation provides ample opportunity for a number of enriching postsimulation activities.     

人权还是知识产权:美国对华政策的一个重要转折

克林顿政府初期处于对华政策的十字路口。冷战结束,美国全面调整对外政策,把经济放到对外战略的首位,知识产权问题凸现。而对华政策背离这一主旨,把人权作为首要目标,并与最惠国待遇问题挂钩。这种矛盾决定其必然改弦更张。以经贸为立足点的接触政策的确立,使知识产权问题再次回到中美关系的中心,美国经历了对华政策的一次重要转折。     

Development in motion: what to think about migration?

Recent interest in migrant remittances as a development resource calls attention to a deeper issue: the relationship between migration and development. Remittances may be a significant source of economic inflows to poor countries and regions, but their actual development impact (positive or negative) is tied to the migration processes that generate them. Attention to migration in turn creates an opportunity to think about the broader context of development policy and practice, and to re-think the boundaries that we put around our work.     

Using technology to deliver social protection: exploring opportunities and risks

Providing cash transfers to vulnerable groups reduces vulnerability and chronic poverty; but delivering cash to remote, rural locations can be expensive and insecure. Alternative delivery systems using technology are thus being piloted. This article uses examples from southern Africa to highlight the opportunities and risks involved in using technology to deliver social protection, with particular focus on two schemes in Malawi. It concludes that there is great potential for the use of technology in delivering social protection, especially if employed at a national scale and taking advantage of the full spectrum of uses to ensure cost-efficiency.     

Evidence-Based Policy Research to Inform the ENP: Five Recommendations for Europe and its Neighbours

The September 2014 referendum is a milestone in Scotland’s history. After 307 years of union with England and a 15-year experience with devolution, Scottish nationalism is within reach of its ultimate goal. Independence would be consensual and Scotland and the rest of the UK would retain multiple links. The EU dimension looms large in the debate and is entangled with the UK’s own review of its membership. Scotland’s referendum is part of a wider trend seeing other ‘stateless nations’ in the democratic world pursuing independence. Even if opinion polls indicate voters will likely reject secession, Scotland’s experience holds important lessons for the wider world.     

Building indicators to address community sustainability: learning from the Mixteca region,Mexico

This article reports on an indicator model to assess sustainability at the community level that was developed by an interdisciplinary work group. We applied this model in a case study of the Mixteca region in Oaxaca, Mexico, and provided a tool guide to measure the effectiveness of community-based actions. Two innovative aspects are presented: an iterative process with the community to develop a locally appropriate set of indicators drawn from the literature, and a baseline diagnostic assessment of the community’s performance on these indicators. This assessment may serve as a basis for future research and community-driven projects.     

Creating Stable Agreements in Marine Policy: Learning from the California South Coast Marine Life Protection Act Initiative

In this article, we examine the California South Coast Marine Life Protection Act Initiative stakeholder process, evaluate its shortcomings, and consider what could have been done differently. Our objective is to make recommendations to improve future multi‐stakeholder marine policy processes. In our view, while the South Coast stakeholder process had many positive outcomes, it failed to reach what we call here a “stable agreement.” Our analysis is based on two of the authors’ involvement (one as a facilitator and the other as a stakeholder representative) in the process and a post‐hoc survey of participants. We find that several ill‐advised process design and management choices significantly destabilized the negotiations, leading to an ultimately unstable agreement. We highlight four major problematic process design and management decisions, including the following: representation on the multi‐stakeholder group was imbalanced, the pre‐meeting caucuses were not paired with training in interest‐based negotiation, adequate incentives to negotiate toward a consensus agreement were not provided, and the use of straw voting at one point in the process was unclear and inconsistent. As a result of these and other process design and management flaws, many stakeholders believed that the process was biased and that their ends would be better achieved by anchoring negotiations and engaging in positional bargaining. Ultimately, this meant that near‐consensus on a single cross‐interest marine protected area proposal was not reached, the scientific guidelines put forth were not fully met, the process was not and is not viewed as fair by the stakeholders directly or indirectly involved, and the marine protected area regulations lack broad‐scale support. These pitfalls of the South Coast stakeholder process could have been avoided had the management and facilitation team consistently followed best practices in dispute resolution. We recommend that future marine planning processes learn from this example, particularly those occurring in highly complex, urban ocean environments.     

The G7, International Terrorism and Domestic Politics: Modeling Policy Cohesion in Response to Systemic Disturbance

This work probes the variability in G7 cohesion in response to relatively new disturbances in the international system. Using a domestic politics model, we argue that G7 cohesion weakens in the face of international terrorism in the context of variable domestic consequences to common foreign policy responses to this systemic disturbance. We compare the predictions from our model with predictions stemming from neorealist and liberal/institutionalist explanations. We find that, consistent with the domestic politics explanation, G7 foreign policy cohesion declines as internal terrorism increases.