法国为何重返北约军事一体化机构

法国在退出北约军事一体化机构43年后重返，有冷战后国际环境的巨大变化和其国内政治、军事需求的背景。法国重返北约，意在加强法美军事合作从而进一步增强法国军事实力，并藉以提高其对欧洲的话语权。因此，这也是法国外交实行重大调整的亮相。然而，法国独立外交理念和独立的核政策在未来的法美关系、法国同欧盟其他成员国关系以及美欧关系中如何不发生碰撞．还有待时间与历史的验证。     

北约军事转型分析

自冷战结束以来,北约一直进行着战略调整。但是作为其支柱的军事力量跟不上北约战略调整的步伐,影响着大西洋两岸关系。为改变这一状况,北约制订了军事转型计划。北约军事转型一方面牵动着世界军事安全的敏感神经,另一方面仍充满着许多不确定因素。     

在北约东扩问题上俄美欧三方的矛盾分析

北约与俄罗斯的关系历经死敌-好友-伙伴-对手的多般变化。近年来，围绕着美国在东欧部署反导系统、美国在欧洲新建军事基地、欧洲常规力量部署以及能源领域的矛盾冲突，俄关欧三方关系复杂，尤其在北约东扩问题上，各方的矛盾表现得更为明显。     

法国新总统萨科齐外交政策初探

萨科齐于2007年5月当选法国总统,他敢说敢为,并有着比其前任更浓的爱国情结。这些因素将深刻地影响萨科齐的外交决策。根据萨科齐在以往内阁中的表现、总统竞选时的纲领以及执政几个月以来的作为,可以初步判断,未来萨科齐将把绝大部分精力放在法国内政上,外交将是其用心较少的领域。他将着力稳定法国与德国、中国等国的关系,法美关系也将会得到修复和提升;在欧盟问题上,萨科齐以制定"迷你宪法"作为主要努力目标,并试图通过主导欧盟改革条约,为法国争取更多利益。     

北约“巧防务”概念探析

在今年5月20日召开的芝加哥峰会上,北约发布的《防务能力宣言》正式提出,面对财政紧缩的严峻挑战,北约将实施巧防务(Smart Defence)战略,以加强成员国之间的合作及防务资源共享,力争实现2020年维持并提升联盟军事实力的战略目标。目前,北约巧防务战略的实施范围包括导弹防御系统、盟国地面侦查系统(AGS)等诸多前沿领域,引起了多方关于北约发展前景的猜测。本文拟对巧防务概念作一简要分析。     

俄美分歧及俄罗斯加入北约的可能性探析

俄罗斯与美国围绕北约扩大所产生的多方面分歧，使俄罗斯能否最终加入北约问题带有开放性和长期性特点;俄罗斯要求加入北约及经历数轮扩大已发生深刻变化的北约保持门户开放，是衡量欧洲安全能否持久的重要标准。     

俄罗斯与北约关系：问题与前景

冷战结束以来,俄罗斯与北约的关系受到北约东扩问题、双方根深蒂固的相互疑惧心理以及美国因素的影响,总体上呈现“分歧大于共识、）中突多于合作”的发展态势。近年,受俄美关系重启的带动以及出于在阿富汗等问题上亟需俄罗斯帮助等考虑,北约在一系列事关俄核心利益问题上的立场正在发生重大变化,俄与北约之间出现了新的互动态势,双方关系有望迎来一个“合作增多、冲突趋少”的新的发展阶段。但鉴于俄与北约之间既有问题的“积重难返”,双方关系的实质性改善仍然“任重而道远”,未来俄罗斯加入北约的可能性不大。     

法国的新外交政策

法国的新外交政策王燕阁进入９０年代，法国为适应冷战结束后的国际战略环境，对其外交政策作了方向性的调整。巴拉迪尔政府去年上台后，总结了前几年的经验教训，又推出＂新外交政策＂。这一新政策具有鲜明的特点，虽尚未成型，但其轮廓已经显现。一、再次调整外交政策背...     

北约战略扩张新态势及欧盟的反应北大核心

自冷战结束以来,北约战略扩张态势持续不断,其行动空间和能力拓展已呈现出鲜明的全球化色彩.作为欧洲安全的提供者和美欧关系的主要平台,北约在与欧盟通过构建伙伴关系而推进安全合作的同时,其战略扩张也给欧盟带来了多方面冲击,既弱化了欧盟在北约机制中的构建和纠偏能力,也降低了欧盟及欧洲安全在北约安全议程中的位序,更削弱了欧盟对欧洲安全的主导权.受到美国外交、英国退欧、德法分歧等多方面因素的影响,欧盟将会在未来一段时间内通过校订北约战略定位、应对美欧关系有限震荡及维持多重外交关系等途径努力调整和塑造同北约的合作关系,并在此过程中建立和维护欧盟的战略自主地位.     

北约、欧盟"双扩"与欧洲新安全结构

随着北约、欧盟新一轮东扩的即将启动,欧洲新的安全结构愈益凸显出来。这个新结构完全不同于欧洲历史上的均势和两极结构,而是一种复合中心圆结构。它是以北约和欧盟为核心的两个交叠但不重合的中心圆,北约中心圆发挥的作用以军事安全为主,欧盟中心圆作为“安全锚地”发挥“软安全”作用。这两个职责不同的安全核心,其内部关系高度民主制度化和组织化,聚合程度高,稳定性强。核心通过制度化的多边合作机制联系着周边国家,但从核心到边缘存在着等级区别。结构具有开放性和扩张性特点,在扩张过程中规范因素发挥了重要的作用。复合中心圆结构对欧亚大陆自西向东构成三种压力:力量压力、制度压力和文化压力。     

军事经济学领域再现争鸣

伊拉克战争后,国际理论界围绕军事支出与经济发展间的关系出现争鸣。其实,军事与经济的关系是一个老话题。早在两千多年前,中国的先贤们就认识到军事对经济的影响,国之所急,惟农与战,国富则兵强,兵强则战胜;另一方面,“久暴师则国用不足”,“百姓之费十去其七”。[1]人类对军事与经济关系的早期认识,主要是从战争角度去分析经济的重要性,关注战争对经济的消极影响。随着科技发展和生产方式的演变,二者关系愈益复杂。今天关于军事与经济关系的争论焦点是:     

Back with a Vengeance: The Return of Rough and Tumble Geopolitics

Too many Western policymakers in the United States and across the European Union still remain attached to an “end of history” worldview, which has somewhat blinded them to the resurgence of great power politics. For the past decade or so, the unipolar world has been breaking apart due to various centrifugal geopolitical trends. The COVID-19 pandemic did not cause these trends, but is accelerating them. A leaderless, multipolar world on the cusp of de-globalization and the onset of a cold war between the United States and the People's Republic of China is a recipe for skyrocketing unpredictability and increased instability. This article traces the origins of these trends and provides a framework to analyze the political trajectories and geopolitical (and ethical) consequences thereof.     

Putting Humpty Dumpty Back Together Again: Financialisation and the Management of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis

The subprime mortgage debacle in the USA and the subsequent global credit crunch provoked a wide range of crisis management responses in different national settings. Such interventions are typically figured as the sovereign state coming to the rescue of the markets and the banks. In contrast, and offering a critical analysis of the character and content of the principal interventions of authorities in the heartland of the crisis in the USA and the UK from Autumn 2007 through to 2009, we argue that these responses served to reproduce financialisation tendencies present across the seemingly separable domains of state and market which contributed to producing the crisis in the first place. Understood as a process co-constituted through pervasive but contradictory developments in capital accumulation, the risk management practices of lenders and the disciplining of borrowers, we show how, far from being seriously curtailed by crisis management, the financialisation of socio-economic life was actually buttressed during the very period in which its fragilities were most sharply exposed. In short, the management of the subprime crisis is a story akin to that of trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.     

安全文化与战略选择的相关性--以冷战后的北约东扩为例

在冷战后北约东扩的过程中,北约的安全文化与大国的战略选择之间有着紧密的相关性.安全文化中的规范与认同影响着大国的战略互动,是大国战略选择的内在根据,而大国战略互动中的矛盾与分歧也反作用于安全文化中的规范与认同.从北约东扩的情况看,北约欧洲化与全球化、单边主义与多边主义的矛盾及其发展将对北约的安全文化产生重大的影响.     

The Return to the Pressure Track: The Trump Administration and the Iran Nuclear Deal

During the 2016 United States presidential election campaign, Donald Trump promised to “renegotiate” the July 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known as the Iran nuclear deal. The deal does not prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons and in some ways actually makes it easier for Iran to go nuclear in the future. The mere continuation of the current deal could undermine America’s interests in the Middle East and its global non-proliferation policy. How then can the Donald Trump Administration work to renegotiate the deal? This analysis provides a strategy that the Trump Administration can follow to improve American policy toward Iran, namely do what Iran is doing to the United States: abide by the strict terms of the agreement, whilst competing in all of the ways not covered in the deal. From an American perspective, increasing pressure on Tehran will constrain Iran’s destabilising influence in the region. Over time, Washington can leverage the pressure to force Iran back to the table to strike a renegotiated agreement that eliminates, not just delays, the Iranian nuclear and missile threat.     

Return to Tradition in the Name of Change

The author argues that although a new military strategy of US Armed Forces is far from being completed, an outline has emerged, that is to develop a military strategy suitable for ＂soft power diplomacy＂, rather than Bush＇s strategy of unilateralism and preemption. The author then makes some analysis on the difficulties Obama is facing to fulfill this change.