A SURVEY OF INDIA’S STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT

This paper examines India’s strategic environment in the round. ‘Strategic’ refers here to politico-military aspects of international relations, particularly those with implications for the use or potential use of force in the future. Thus economic factors are considered secondarily, and only insofar as they have diplomatic and military ramifications – as in the case of Chinese infrastructure projects in South Asia, or Indian port-development in Iran. This approach also sets aside what we might call ‘structural’ factors, such as large-scale multilateral trade deals, such as the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and sociological-demographic trends, such as relative population growth rates, also such issues necessarily influence the real and perceived balance of power over the long-run. The paper begins by considering India’s most salient adversary, Pakistan, before looking at the connected issue of Afghanistan and Central Asia. It then turns east to examine another rival, China, followed by the United States, the smaller states of South Asia, and finally the Middle East.     

INDIA’S DEMONETISATION: MODI’S ‘NUDGE’ TO CHANGE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR

This article offers an account of the impact of Indian PM Narendra Modi’s decision in November 2016 to withdraw suddenly all Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes from circulation in India with the avowed intent of combatting fraud, tax avoidance and other economic problems. The article assesses the impact from the demonetisation in November to the March 2017 Indian regional elections, where wide-scale victories for Modi’s political party, the BJP, appear to have vindicated his reforms. The article provides an analysis of the political background of the period, as well as looking at the economic and societal impact of the changes, including the way in which the behaviour of Indian citizens has been ‘nudged’ with particular regard to use of banking, transactions, social effects, and payment of tax.     

CHINA’S ‘POLITICAL RE-EDUCATION’ CAMPS OF XINJIANG’S UYGHUR MUSLIMS

Recently, reports have emerged that China operates “political re-education” camps of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang. China justified them as a sort of vocational training program to assist Uyghurs in participating in the Chinese economy. In actuality, they are brutal incarceration camps; these forms of ‘education’ can qualify as torture that perhaps 1.5 million adults have been subjected to, and have led to detaining children of people incarcerated in state-run boarding schools. It is necessary to interrogate the underlying factors that have enabled the Chinese government to open and operate these camps under the guise of education. This paper first examines the impact of the current geopolitical interests of China's Belt & Road Initiative and the historical backgrounds of Xinjiang and the Re-Education through Labour program. It then explains the methods of ‘education’ taking place within the camps and interrogates China's justifications for building them. This education issue is more about inhibiting Uyghur power than China's claim that the camps are meant to empower Uyghurs to participate in the Chinese labour force.     

INDIA’S SOFT POWER DIPLOMACY UNDER THE MODI ADMINISTRATION: BUDDHISM,DIASPORA AND YOGA

This paper examines the Narendra Modi administration's use of three specific soft power assets of India – Buddhism, Diaspora, and Yoga – in diplomacy in service of the country's national interests. It attempts to address the following questions: What is the main purpose of the Modi administration's soft power strategy and the reasons behind the promotion and utilization of these three assets? What are the impediments to India's soft power projection ability? Finally, how can the Modi administration better exploit India's soft power advantages? This paper demonstrates how the Modi administration is making efforts to project India's soft power in the service of larger strategic goals. The use of soft power is designed to complement India's conventional diplomacy, boost its international image, project it as a peaceful rising power, improve relations with other countries, and help attract foreign investment, technology, and tourists in order to promote economic growth and development.     

PAKISTAN’S CRISIS OF GOVERNANCE AND THE RESURGENCE OF TERRORIST VIOLENCE SINCE AUGUST 2016

Fifteen years since joining the US-led anti-terrorism coalition, Pakistan’s response to the challenges of terroristic violence and extremist indoctrination and propaganda remain military-centric and kinetic. Since August 2016, after a brief lull, Pakistan has experienced a resurgence of terrorist activity and violence that has struck all of its provinces and placed its capital on high alert. The re-escalation in the level of terrorist violence began with the August 8, 2016, attacks in Quetta, which left over 70 dead and more than 100 injured. The lack of response from the provincial and federal governments to this carnage, led the Supreme Court of Pakistan to exercise its authority under Article 184(3) of the Constitution and establish an Inquiry Commission to examine the state of the investigation and report on the challenges faced in the struggle against terrorism and extremism. This inquiry assumed the form and substance of an audit of the performance of Pakistan’s institutions and exposed the link between the country’s crisis of governance and its incoherent response to terrorism and extremism at all levels of government. The implications of the inquiry report are both broad and deep, and reveal that Pakistan’s trajectory remains that of civilian administrative breakdown and institutional exhaustion. This indicates that Pakistan’s civilian-military balance continues to shift in structural terms in favour of the latter and that beneath a veneer of constitutional democracy, the arbitrary, unwise, and inefficient, exercise of power by the political class continues to hollow out the country’s administrative institutions.     

CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES AND THE TREATMENT OF PAKISTAN’S RELIGIOUS MINORITIES

Although Pakistan was created as a homeland for South Asia's Muslims, religious freedom was one of its founding principles. Seventy years later, Pakistan is better known for religious extremism and the persecution of Muslim and non-Muslim religious minorities. Pakistan's blasphemy law is a state-sanctioned tool of religious oppression used to target members of minority faith communities whether Ahmadiya, Christian, Hindu, or Shiite, as well as Sunnis who criticize the law. This paper discusses the blasphemy law and other laws that have led to the state of religious oppression in Pakistan.     

KURDISTAN’S REFERENDUM: THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE KURDISH FORCES IN KIRKUK

Less than a month after the Kurdistan independence referendum, the Iraqi Army and units of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) attacked the disputed province of Kirkuk on October, 16, 2017. Unlike most national defence forces, the Kurdish Peshmerga is divided along partisan lines between the two largest parties in Iraqi Kurdistan. This particular area was largely under the control of units affiliated with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which decided to make a strategic withdrawal in the face of superior numbers and firepower. The city was then retaken in short order by forces loyal to Baghdad, as were all other disputed territories previously under Kurdish control. Subsequently, the allegation that the PUK had retreated too easily has been described by the rival Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and others as a betrayal of the Kurdish people by the PUK. This has created two competing post-event perspectives: first, that the Peshmerga forces should have defended Kirkuk to the last man and should not have left their front line trenches; second that the withdrawal of the Peshmerga was a deliberate and rational military reaction to overwhelming opposition. This article critically assesses both perspectives and finds that partisan divisions in the Peshmerga critically undermined the ability of Kurdish forces to defend the disputed areas that they controlled. Instead of serving as motivation of create a unified fighting force, the loss of Kirkuk has only served to deepen those divisions.     

IRAN’S STRUGGLE FOR STRATEGIC DOMINANCE IN A POST-ISIS IRAQ

Iran's influence and presence in Iraq have increased significantly in recent years. The collapse of the Saddam's dictatorship in 2003, after the US invasion, served to inflate Iran's influence in Iraq, particularly in the post-ISIS era. In this connection, Iran has used various means and tools to develop its strategy in Iraq. This article argues that Iran's current strategy in Iraq stems from a Realpolitik agenda rather than an ideological one, concerned more with political, economic, and security interests than pursuing revolutionary objectives per se. To this end, Tehran has largely relied on long-established relationships with several pro-Iranian political parties and militia groups. These relationships are often couched in religious ideological terms as a foundation and justification for its future strategy in post-ISIS Iraq. The questions that this paper will address are the following: what was Iran's role in defeating ISIS in Iraq? How has Tehran benefitted from its long-term relationships with Iraqi political parties and militia groups? What are the Iranian sources of power in Iraq and how do they help Iran gain strategic dominance in Iraq?     

POLICIES OF LAST RESORT FOR DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAMME

This paper analyzes the policy remedies for dealing with North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile programs. After six nuclear tests and three recent successful ICBM tests, North Korea is close to miniaturizing nuclear warheads and establishing a reliable delivery system, thus achieving a much-feared nuclear weapons capability. In defiance of the extraordinarily tough U.N. Security Council resolutions, Pyongyang persists in developing nuclear weapons. North Korea's nuclear weapons program already has exceeded the strategic patience, of the U.S.-ROK alliance. Harsher policy options to deal with the DPRK nuclear weapons are imperative. Several drastic options, including severe sanctions, preventive bombing, nuclear armament of South Korea, are evaluated in the final round of engagement policy on guaranteeing nonaggression and a peace agreement with Pyongyang.     

Germany: A ‘Normal’ Global Actor?

Liberal-idealist and constructivist approaches to German foreign and security policy share a rejection of power politics and a ‘normalisation’ of the use of force. Wedded to a ‘civilian power’ lens, these approaches cannot explain actual policy in terms other than a re-socialisation into power politics or a decline of Germany's normative preferences. This paper argues that these approaches no longer adequately reflect the choices German leaders face. They confine analysis to normatively acceptable forms of power and structural frameworks that are increasingly in flux. As a result, they are unable to explain the impact of systemic transformation on German foreign policy and lack the analytical tools to incorporate systemic change. This paper proposes instead that a different, and more accurate, conclusion can be reached if we reassess how power, norms and structure interact in shaping German foreign policy choices. What we find is that Germany is actively engaged in developing an approach to foreign policy-making that takes account of the structural transformations in Europe and beyond and its legacy of strong normative convictions.     

NORTH KOREA’S PERSPECTIVES IN ITS ARGUMENT FOR A PEACE TREATY

In recent years, North Korea’s military provocations have been making the headlines. Beyond its harsh actions and remarks, North Korea persistently mentions ‘peace’ through a demand for a ‘peace treaty’. This may sound paradoxical. However, the origin of the North Korean argument for a peace treaty dates back to the Korean War (1950–53). Since then, North Korea has continued to raise the issue of a peace treaty in a consistent manner and the arguments have displayed similar logic and terminology throughout. It is this consistency and similarity that this article examines: through reviewing North Korea’s original texts, this article attempts to undercover North Korea's perspectives reflected in its argument for a peace treaty.     

IS THIS RUSSIA’S MOMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST?

Sir Jeremy Greenstock, formerly British permanent representative to the UN, who has had long experience of dealing with Russia in the context of diplomacy, considers whether the current moment of Russian dominance in Syria and the Middle East, combined with the recent general disengagement of the western powers in the region, could be considered as marking the beginning of a general period of Russian hegemony in the Middle East. The article takes into account the global geopolitical situation, the recent history of Russia and the Middle East, the consequences of western intervention in Iraq, and the motivations of the Russian government particularly in view of its recent engagement in Ukraine.     

Will China’s Rise Be Peaceful? A Social Psychological Perspective

This article looks at Chinese foreign policy through the lens of Social Identity Theory (SIT). It aims to show how that approach can give us new insight into a whole series of issues relating to the rise of China. It also tries to show, more generally, how SIT can serve as a useful tool for understanding international politics. In substantive terms, the main claim here is that China has consistently pursued a social creativity strategy (one of the three standard SIT strategies) from the Deng Xiaoping era until the present. The article argues that the concepts of respect and disrespect can provide us with a useful framework for better understanding the conditions for an outbreak of a conflict given a social creativity strategy; it then examines the Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995–1996 as a plausibility probe. All this supports the basic conclusion that overall China’s rise would be more peaceful than threatening.     

THE END OF POLITICS BY THEYOUTH? HIGHER EDUCATION,YOUTH IDENTITY AND RECESSION OFPOLITICAL PARTICIPATION BY SOUTH AFRICA'S ‘BORN-FREES’:1 THE CASE OF UNDERGRADUATE STUDENTS AT A PUBLIC UNIVERSITY

ABSTRACT

The aim of the study is to examine the effects of political socialisation by the family and significant others on the political participation by South Africa's born-frees using a sample of undergraduate students at a public university in a metropolitan area. Overall, political participation is relatively low among the born-frees even though political awareness is very high. Political socialisation in the form of discussion of politics with parents, other relatives and peers is found to be an important predictor of youth participation in political activities. The youth of mothers with school leaving certificates or undergraduate education are more likely to be politically engaged compared to those of mothers with either no education or postgraduate education. Finally, older youth are more likely than younger ones to be politically engaged.     

A mob for hire? Unpacking older women’s political activism in Kyrgyzstan

This article explores the politics of older women in post-Soviet Kyrgyzstan, who have emerged as informal leaders in urban neighbourhoods to ‘speak for the poor’ to the state. Their mediating role is crucial for understanding community micro-politics, women’s political agency and more broadly state–society relations in the post-Soviet context. Drawing on in-depth interviews with older female informal leaders, the paper examines their political legitimacy and modes of mediation with the state and elites. Using Bourdieu’s concepts of political capital and ‘double dealings’, the paper argues that older women are important informal mediators, whose representational practices involve communal leadership, protest activism, bargaining and vote mobilization. Their multitasking roles are necessitated by their legitimation struggles and elites’ strategies of state capture. The article challenges the dominant media representation of older women activists as ‘a mob for hire’ and offers a more nuanced account of older women’s politics, addressing a blind spot in the literature on politics in Central Asia.     

‘SAUDI VISION 2030’: A VIABLE RESPONSE TO YOUTH ASPIRATIONS AND CONCERNS?

Since Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud unveiled Saudi Vision 2030 (The National Transformation Programme, 25 April 2016) a great deal of analysis has focused on the potential impact of Vision 2030 at the national level. Significantly, Saudi Vision 2030, which promises a better future and better governance, is raising hopes and expectations amongst young well-educated Saudis. Nevertheless, how has Saudi Vision 2030 been interpreted by young educated male Saudis many of whom are struggling to enter the labour market at a time of austerity and economic uncertainty? This paper discusses young male perceptions of Saudi Vision 2030 including their expectations and hopes for the Vision. In fact, an understanding of how young Saudis perceive Vision 2030 is not only pertinent in the Saudi national context (or indeed multiple Saudi domestic contexts), but also has wider regional relevance considering oil-market developments and economic policy.     

The First World War Centenary in the UK: ‘A Truly National Commemoration’?

Abstract

Prime Minister David Cameron has called for ‘a truly national commemoration of the First World War’. This article shows this to be problematic, politicised and contested. This is in part due to the elision of English and British histories. Scottish, Welsh and Irish responses are noted, and the role and commemorations of ‘our friends in the Commonwealth’. There are tensions around interpretations of empire and race. There has been a failure to appreciate that the debates about the legacies of the First World War are deeply entangled with those of colonialism.     

Martinique’s Accession to the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States: A New Chapter in Caribbean Regionalism?

The admission of Martinique as an associate member of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States in 2015 has been seen as an event of significance in the Caribbean region for a number of reasons. Among other things, it was the first example of a non-Anglophone country being accorded that status, and it was the first French territory allowed to join one of the core regional groupings of the Commonwealth Caribbean. This article argues that the deepening of Martinique’s relationship with its neighbours within a multilateral framework may offer new practical possibilities for regional integration.