全球化与中东政治制度民主化

中东是世界最动荡的地区,而它所面临的很多问题恰恰是由政治制度的不民主状况直接引起的。探索适合本国国情的政治改革道路,不仅有助于中东国家的政治稳定和社会安定,对于地区和世界的和平与发展也极为有利。     

Globalization,Democratization and the Far Right: Turkey's Nationalist Action Party in Critical Perspective

Ultra-nationalist political parties of the far right have been an endemic feature of European politics in recent years. This article investigates the rise of the Nationalist Action Party (the MHP) in Turkey, a party that has a number of characteristics in common with its European counterparts. The objective of the article is to illustrate a paradox. These types of parties tend to display a considerable degree of adaptability and exhibit a tendency to move in a more moderate direction. They shed some of their violent and extremist leanings in the process as they try to transform themselves from closed communities or networks to mass parties of national standing. This apparent moderation should not disguise, however, the key underlying weakness of such parties, namely their limited commitment to the core values of liberal democracy and political pluralism. Indeed, such parties can continue to play an important negative role in terms of their ability to block the process of democratic deepening in nascent democratic regimes.     

全球化背景下的中东政治民主化

中东伊斯兰国家政治民主化进程在全球化的冲击下取得了一定的成就 ,在一定程度上改变了中东地区的政治面貌。由于国际局势的变化和中东国家独特的宗教、社会历史条件 ,其政治民主化进程在 2 0世纪 90年代遇到了严峻的挑战。但只要中东国家坚持和发扬伊斯兰传统文化中有利于政治民主化的合理因素 ,同时积极融入全球政治民主化大潮 ,协调好全球化与传统文化的关系 ,中东的政治民主化进程一定能继续发展。     

Protest Diffusion and Cultural Resonance in the 2011 Protest Wave

The 2011 protest wave, encompassing the Arab Spring revolutions, the Indignados movement in Spain and Greece, and the Occupy Wall Street movement has often been described as a new global protest cycle. However, the dynamics of diffusion suggest a more complex picture. Transmission of protest frames and repertoires from one country and cultural region to another was quite slow and tortuous. Moreover, adoption of the new ideas and practices of protest spawned by the protest wave of 2011 involved laborious dynamics of cultural translation and domestication. This situation points to the continuing importance of local protest cultures and cultural contexts, in addition to channels of transmission, even in an era of instantaneous communication technologies.     

沙特阿拉伯--改革、民主化与恐怖主义--日本学者福田安志访问西亚非洲研究所

8月 2 4日 ,日本发展中国家研究所学者福田安志(Fukuda)访问中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所 ,作了题为“沙特阿拉伯———改革、民主化与恐怖主义”的学术报告。西亚非洲所所长杨光研究员和有关学者听取了报告。双方就相关问题进行了交流。福田安志在报告中论及了两大问题 :一是沙特国内的 7个主要问题 ;二是沙特民主化进程的细节问题。(一 )当前沙特国内面临民主化、打击恐怖主义、王位继承、金融改革、失业、工业化和经济改革等七大问题。福田安志认为 ,民主化问题主要包括 :(1)改革君主专制政体 ;(2 )政治改革或民主化 ,改革权力强大的君…     

Parties,Protest and Pluralism in Cambodia

In the 1990s, early post-Cold War optimism regarding the rapid spread of democracy in the South faded, as multiparty elections in new democracies were observed to exacerbate conflicts of identity rather than ameliorating the effects of conflicts of interest. Research in Cambodia suggests, however, that the promotion by political parties of identity-based conflict offers opportunities for individuals and groups to attempt to insert a more pragmatic interest-based agenda. Party activities also offer an exemplar for political advocacy and activism, which is useful to non-party interest groups and social movements. Cambodia's electoral experience further suggests that parties attempting to respond to such interest-based agendas may be rewarded by voters at the polls. Analytical focus upon the efforts of individuals and non-party movements to make use of the opportunities offered by political parties, rather than upon the mobilizational strategies and rhetorics of party leaders, offers a more optimistic prognosis for democracy in the third world.     

The Presidency,the Parties and Democratization in Mexico

This article seeks to explain how democratization in Mexico reinvigorated a party system that a generation earlier existed mainly on paper. The process of democratization involved a reduction, though by no means the elimination, of the meta-presidentialism in favour of a more law-based system. Forces exogenous to the party system shaped the initial democratization process. However, once the regime agreed to accept certain electoral rule changes, especially after 1986, the system of party competition developed dramatically to a much greater extent than expected. The initial threat to the system posed by the Cardenas candidacy in 1988 was suppressed. However, after 1988 electoral competition became increasingly important. In terms of shaping factors, therefore, one could see the birth of party competition contingent on other democratizing influences. However, once born, it proved to have a considerable shaping influence of its own. The current democratic system in Mexico selects the president by simple majority. There is no runoff system. However, Congress is elected according to systems of proportional representation. This makes minority presidentialism likely, as has indeed been the pattern since 2000. Since the Mexican constitution confers rather few powers on the presidency, the result is likely to be a continued redistribution of power from the president to the Congress.     

军事政变和独裁交替下的泰国民主化道路——泰国民主化的特征与未来

比其他亚洲国家起步早的泰国民主化道路走得并不平坦,军事政变和政治独裁的交替似乎成为了近70多年来泰国政治的主线。这种奇特的政治现象和泰国的政治文化、宗教意识、教育水平、社会结构等因素密切联系在一起。最初由精英发起的泰国民主化运动,如果得不到整个国民的回应,没有获得成熟市民社会的支持,真正的民主主义也就不可能在泰国扎根。     

Democratization in Mozambique: Trends and practices

This article explores the nature of party political competition four years after Mozambique's first democratic national elections, with particular attention being accorded to the democratization of local government. It commences with an overview of the nature of contemporary party politics in Mozambique. Secondly, the democratization of local government is reviewed. Thirdly, recent political developments are located within the context of major economic reconstruction and escalating corruption. It is concluded that whilst Mozambique does have a stable multi‐party system in the formal sense at least, the substance of genuine multi‐partyism remains elusive, given the near‐total lack of policy alternatives and the proliferation of corruption at the highest levels of political life.     

尼日利亚民主化:特点及问题

尼日利亚的民主化以扑朔迷离的轨迹引发了无数学者浓厚的研究兴趣。尼日利亚的民主化遭受了很多挫折,但迈向持久民主的艰难步伐一直没有停止,即使是在旷日持久的军人执政时期也是如此。尼日利亚民主化面临的重大挑战虽自该国独立后就一直存在,但这些问题出现的新情况却需要用新的视角去审视,用新的方式去应对。只有这样,尼日利亚才能早日跨入现代民主国家的行列。     

Protest in South Africa: motives and meanings

South Africa is experiencing record levels of protest. Interpretations of protest fall into two groups. First, there is the argument that protests represent only limited rebellion and that though unruly, they are a mechanism for political re-engagement. A second understanding links “new social movements” that address general grievances to wider hegemonic challenges. This article addresses the issue of whether these upsurges in militant mobilization threaten or complement democratic procedures. The article draws from a study of two protest “hotspots” in Durban.     

War and Democratization: Lessons from the Portuguese Experience

The literature on democracy suggests that new democracies should have difficulty emerging during war or in the aftermath of armed struggle, yet Portugal's current democracy emerged simultaneously with the end of the nation's unsuccessful war in Africa. This article addresses the reasons and argues that democracy triumphed not simply in spite of the war but also, in part, because of it. The costs and geography of the war itself, the capacity and rootedness of the state that waged the war, the political culture of the regime's military officers, and the war-related timing of Portugal's first elections all helped prevent the emergence of an anti-democratic coalition and contributed to ensuring a successful transition to democracy. The article ends with three ideas that merit closer examination: that different sorts of wars leave different legacies for democracy; that wars that leave state bureaucracies intact or stronger are more likely to be followed by lasting democracy than those which do not; and, finally, that the ideologies of military elites are pivotal to the outcome of post-war democratic transitions.     

Democratization,Instability, and War: Israel's 2006 Conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah

In 2006 Israel resumed military operations in the Gaza Strip and conducted a war in Lebanon following attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah, respectively. Due to the elections that had recently taken place in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon, these events seem to support the argument that democratizing nations are particularly war-prone. Yet the dynamics this perspective identifies as dangerous were largely absent. To address this puzzle, this paper offers three arguments. First, democratization enhanced the power of groups openly hostile to Israel, increasing Israel's perception of threat. Second, democratization was threatening because it occurred within highly divided societies governed by weak state institutions that allowed radical groups to attain political power. Finally, Israel's response to the increased threat posed by these groups was ultimately counterproductive because it further eroded the capacity of the Palestinian and Lebanese governments, heightened polarization within both societies, and therefore exacerbated the same conditions that made democratization threatening to begin with.     

Political Repression,Democratization and Civil Conflict in Post-Independence Algeria

This article applies the inverted U-shape theory to Algeria's experience with political repression, democratization and civil conflict. It aims to provide insights into Algeria that other theoretical approaches, such as the clash of civilization, do not. The main findings point to the central role of economic dissatisfaction in promoting political change (democratization) as well as political instability (armed conflict).     

全球化视野中的非洲:发展、援助与合作——兼谈中非合作中的几个问题

本文从发展、援助与合作3个方面探讨全球化视野中的非洲。从发展的角度看,非洲独立50年来在地区一体化、人权与边界稳定等方面所取得的成就不弱于欧美的历史,应多给非洲一些时间。在援助方面,中国援助非洲效果较好的原因在于援助理念——互相平等的态度与援助是双向的观点,而西方援助非洲不成功的主要原因也在于援助理念:高人一等的态度、附带的苛刻指标和有利于授援方而不利于受援方的条件。在全球化的条件下,资源生产国、消费国先到者和消费国后起者只有进行合作,才能实现共赢。     

Democratization Without Decommunization in the Balkans

Since recent U.S.-led democratization projects having led in some cases to the election of Islamist movements, the old democratic theory that structural preconditions are key determinants of successful democratization has apparently been bolstered. This article examines the democratization experience in postcommunist Europe to assess which matters more, a society's “givens” favoring democracy or the institutional imports that a democracy-minded elite can borrow. In particular, it compares the experience of the Southeast Europe countries, which presented poor prerequisites for successful democratization and yet in at least two cases (Romania and Bulgaria) are far along on the path to democratization to the experience of Central Europe and the former Soviet Union as a whole.     

Satisfaction,Alternatives, Investments,and the Microfoundations of Audience Cost Models

In this paper, we suggest that the Investment Model of Commitment, developed in social psychology, offers a solution to an important microfoundational issue in audience cost theory. Audience cost models are useful for thinking about the foreign policy behaviors of democratic and nondemocratic states. However, they often assume that citizens reliably penalize leaders who break their foreign policy promises even though the empirical record suggests this is not always the case. We argue that public commitment to foreign policy assets and relationships is a precondition for the application of audience costs. Using the UN and NATO as case studies, we hypothesize that the commitments people develop to international organizations emerge as a function of (1) their satisfaction with the performance of the organization, (2) the investments in those organizations, and (3) an assessment of the alternatives to these associations. Correlational and experimental tests of the model confirm that the strongest individual-level commitments arise when people are highly satisfied with the performance of specific institutions, believe that much has been invested in support of them, and perceive that the alternatives to particular institutions are poor. Implications for the development of audience cost theory are discussed.