The Relationship among Washington, Beijing, and Taipei in the Post-Cold War Era: A formal modeling

This paper investigates domestic origins of the cyclical pattern in Washington’s relationship with Beijing and Taipei. By focusing on the impact of U.S. presidential election, it argues that, during the election year, U.S. leaders adopt popular policies to achieve a greater number of votes. Such popular policies result in tensions between the countries and subdue the long-term U.S. strategic interests. After election, political leaders resume the long-term strategic interests. A generalizable maximum utility function model is developed to analyze and predict the impact of domestic politics on international relations. Early versions were presented at the International Symposium on the U.S.-China Relations, University of Maryland, October 1996, and at the Chinese Association for Eurasian Studies in Taipei, May 1997. The errors remaining are ours. is currently teaching at Clemson University. His latest publications include a forthcoming volume,Transition towards Post-Deng China, by the Singapore University Press. from Northern Illinois University in 1994, has published several research articles in top journals. His current research interest is centered on economics of public policy making. Currently he is teaching at Hillsdale College, Michigan.     

Neoconservatism: Myth and reality

Seymour Martin Lipset is the Caroline S. G. Munro Professor of Political Science, professor of sociology, and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, all at Stanford University. He taught previously as the George D. Markham Professor at Harvard University. Among his books are Consensus and Conflict, Political Man, The First New Nation, Party Coalitions in the 1980s,and Revolution and Counterrevolution.This text was originally delivered as the First Ernst Fraenkel Lecture, given at the John F. Kennedy Institute at the Free University of Berlin.     

Information Sharing and Public Sector Knowledge Networks

As pressures to engage in cross-agency and cross-sectoral partnerships become more widespread, information sharing becomes an ever more critical and daunting aspect of public administration. In this edition's exchange among scholars and practitioners, Sharon S. Dawes, Anthony M. Cresswell, and Theresa A. Pardo of the Center for Technology in Government at the University at Albany, State University of New York, offer a "baker's dozen" of lessons they have culled from research and their own action research agenda studying the building of public sector knowledge networks in New York over the past 15 years. Grounded in a multidisciplinary, experientially based, and street-level view of the obstacles to and tactics for building successful public sector knowledge networks, the authors' warning to conceive collaborative information-sharing efforts as governance rather than information technology challenges is advice that practitioners ignore at their peril. Readers will find a more extensive eversion of this article on the PAR Web site (go to aspanet.org, click on PAR, then on the Theory to Practice icon). They also will find expert e-commentary on the article (plus the authors' response) from Lisa Bingham , Indiana University-Bloomington; Sharon Caudle , Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University; Louise K. Comfort , University of Pittsburgh; and Costis Toregas , American University.     

Assessing Integrity Systems: Introduction to the Symposium

The following Symposium on Australia's national integrity systems, drawn from an Australian Research Council‐funded project conducted in 2002‐2004 by researchers from Griffith University, Charles Sturt University, University of Sydney, RMIT University, Monash University and the Australian National University, together with Transparency International Australia. The first three papers examine the public integrity regimes at federal, state (NSW) and local levels. The remaining four papers develop three themes as a framework for assessing strengths and weaknesses in Australia's major integrity regimes: consequences, capacity and coherence. The papers were originally presented in sessions of the Australasian Political Studies Association (University of Adelaide, September 2004) and the 5th National Investigation Symposium (NSW Ombudsman, Independent Commission Against Corruption and Institute of Public Administration Australia NSW, Sydney, November 2004).     

Leadership change, legitimacy, and party transition in China

Using Max Weber’s theory of legitimacy and transition, this article suggests that the biggest challenge for China’s new leadership is to transform the Communist Party into an institutionalized ruling party. After analyzing the scenarios of democratization, legitimation, decay, or repression, resulting from the interactions between public contention and the ruling elite, this article argues that the CCP has accomplished the transition from a revolutionary to a reformist party but is now somewhere between claiming to “govern for the people” and “hanging on to power.” To become an institutionalized ruling party, the CCP needs to curtail official corruption and control its membership growth. There are, however, some serious political and personal limitations that China’s new leaders will have to overcome. He received his M.A. and Ph.D. in political science from Yale University in 1988 and 1992 respectively. He has been a visiting scholar at Harvard University, research fellow at the Salzburg Seminar in Austria, and a visiting senior fellow at the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore. His research interests include Chinese political institutions and leadership changes, theories of international relations, Taiwan-Strait relations, and U.S.-China relations. He is the author ofParty vs. State in Post-1949 China: The Institutional Dilemma (Cambridge University Press, 1997). The author wishes to thank John Watt, Joshua Forrest and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on the draft version of this article.     

Sino-Japanese Dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands: The Pending Controversy from the Chinese Perspective

The Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands have brought China and Japan into a bitter dispute for many decades. With regard to the real question of who owns sovereignty over the islands, the two claimants can not come to terms on several critical issues, such as whether the islands were terra nullius when Japan claimed sovereignty in 1895, whether Japan returned the islands to China after the Japanese defeat in WWII, and how their maritime boundary in the East China Sea should be demarcated according to international law. There is no ready solution to the longstanding stalemate, but the pending dispute could be shelved and managed from escalating into a military conflict. Dr. Zhongqi PAN is an Associate Professor at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs in Fudan University. He received his Ph.D. in international relations from Fudan University in 1999. He was a visiting scholar to Lund University (2006), the John K. Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard University (2004), the Henry L. Stimson Center (2001), and University of Tokyo (1999–2000).     

Leadership and standards in American universities

This was the final address on education given by A. Bartlett Giamatti prior to his untimely death in 1989. It was delivered at the Gannett School of Journalism of Columbia University. Before becoming commissioner of major league baseball, he was president of Yale University from 1978 to 1986. His most recent book is A Free and Ordered Space.     

Crafting village democracy in China: The roles, networking, and strategies of provincial elites

There is no obvious and direct correlation between the provincial level of economic development and democratic level of village elections. There is a great disparity in the level of rural democratization and the implementation of village self-governance among and within provinces. The modernization model alone cannot explain why village elections work well in some provinces but not in others. This paper looks at the political elite’s ongoing efforts at provincial level to conduct village elections and implement village self-governance in rural China. These efforts include the strategies for crafting village democracy employed by provincial elites: elite cooperation, local legislature, political responsibility, political programming, and the art of balancing party leadership and village elections. He has published extensively on China’s village elections and local governance. He is author and coauthor of several books. His current research interests include the development of non-state, local governance, and political participation. The author gratefully acknowledges the anonymous reviewers, Professor He Baogang of Deakin University and Professor Zhong Yang of University of Tennessee for their suggestions on an earlier draft. My special thanks to Professor Joseph Fewsmith of Boston University, Professor Tan Qingshan of Cleveland State University, and three anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments, as well as to East Asian Institute of National University of Singapore for providing support for this research.     

Drugs and free will

He is a doctoral candidate in human development at the University of Maryland. He lectures on drugs, alcoholism, and society in the department of justice, law, and society at American University, Washington, D.C.     

Bayesian and Likelihood Inference for 2 x 2 Ecological Tables: An Incomplete-Data Approach

Ying Lu Department of Sociology, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309 e-mail: ying.lu{at}colorado.edu Aaron Strauss Department of Politics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 e-mail: abstraus{at}princeton.edu e-mail: kimai{at}princeton.edu (corresponding author) Ecological inference is a statistical problem where aggregate-leveldata are used to make inferences about individual-level behavior.In this article, we conduct a theoretical and empirical studyof Bayesian and likelihood inference for 2 x 2 ecological tablesby applying the general statistical framework of incompletedata. We first show that the ecological inference problem canbe decomposed into three factors: distributional effects, whichaddress the possible misspecification of parametric modelingassumptions about the unknown distribution of missing data;contextual effects, which represent the possible correlationbetween missing data and observed variables; and aggregationeffects, which are directly related to the loss of informationcaused by data aggregation. We then examine how these threefactors affect inference and offer new statistical methods toaddress each of them. To deal with distributional effects, wepropose a nonparametric Bayesian model based on a Dirichletprocess prior, which relaxes common parametric assumptions.We also identify the statistical adjustments necessary to accountfor contextual effects. Finally, although little can be doneto cope with aggregation effects, we offer a method to quantifythe magnitude of such effects in order to formally assess itsseverity. We use simulated and real data sets to empiricallyinvestigate the consequences of these three factors and to evaluatethe performance of our proposed methods. C code, along withan easy-to-use R interface, is publicly available for implementingour proposed methods (Imai, Lu, and Strauss, forthcoming). Authors' note: This article is in the part based on two workingpapers by Imai and Lu, "Parametric and Nonparamateric BayesianModels for Ecological Inference in 2 x 2 Tables" and "QuantifyingMissing Information in Ecological Inference." Various versionsof these papers were presented at the 2004 Joint StatisticalMeetings, the Second Cape Cod Monte Carlo Workshop, the 2004Annual Political Methodology Summer Meeting, and the 2005 AnnualMeeting of the American Political Science Association. We thankanonymous referees, Larry Bartels, Wendy Tam Cho, Jianqing Fan,Gary King, Xiao-Li Meng, Kevin Quinn, Phil Shively, David vanDyk, Jon Wakefield, and seminar participants at New York University(the Northeast Political Methodology conference), at PrincetonUniversity (Economics Department and Office of Population Research),and at the University of Virginia (Statistics Department) forhelpful comments.     

Harry Howe Ransom and American intelligence studies

In this interview Harry Howe Ransom, a leading American scholar of intelligence studies over the past 50 years, discusses how he entered the field and his views regarding some key intelligence topics. Foremost on his research agenda has been the study of whether in democratic societies secret agencies can operate side-by-side with an otherwise open government without violating basic civil liberties – the difficult balancing act between the need for security, on the one hand, and the cherished value of liberty, on the other. He has also been a leading critic of intelligence politicization, noting in this interview that there is a tendency for intelligence systems to provide information they think their top bosses want to hear, and for the top bosses – more often than not – to do what they wish in spite of intelligence to the contrary. Professor Ransom began his research into intelligence as a young political scientist at Harvard University and continued this work throughout his subsequent distinguished career at Vanderbilt University and into his retirement years.     

Postsecondary preparation and remediation: Examining the effect of the early assessment program at California State University

In this paper we investigate how participation in the Early Assessment Program, which provides California high school juniors with information about their academic readiness for college‐level work at California State University campuses, affects their college‐going behavior and need for remediation in college. Using administrative records from California State University,–Sacramento and the California Department of Education, we find that participation in the Early Assessment Program reduces the average student's probability of needing remediation at California State University by 6.1 percentage points in English and 4.1 percentage points in mathematics. Rather than discouraging poorly prepared students from applying to Sacramento State, EAP appears to lead students to increase their academic preparation while still in high school. © 2010 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Issue Attitudes and Survey Continuity across Interview Mode in the 2000 NES

Nathan J. Kelly Department of Political Science, University at Buffalo, The State University of New York, Buffalo, NY 14260-4120 e-mail: nkelly{at}buffalo.edu H. Whitt Kilburn Department of Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3265 e-mail: wkilburn{at}email.unc.edu Can researchers draw consistent inferences about the U.S. public'sissue attitudes when studying survey results from both the in-personand telephone interview modes of the 2000 National ElectionStudies (NES) survey? We address this question through an analysiscontrasting the distribution of issue attitudes across modesin the dual sample design of the 2000 NES. We find clear differencesacross mode even when applying a method devised by the NES toimprove comparability by recoding issue attitude scales fromthe in-person mode. We present an alternative method of recodingthese scales, which substantially improves comparability betweenmodes. Through an analysis of the covariance structure of theissues and simple models of vote choice, we discuss the implicationsof the results for the study of issue attitudes in the 2000NES.     

'Appropriate' Policy Knowledge, and Institutional and Governance Implications

The papers in this special section of AJPA are the product of a symposium held in Brisbane in February 2003, which was jointly sponsored by the School of Political Science and International Studies at the University of Queensland and the Queensland Department of Premier and Cabinet. Three papers were delivered. David Adams, from the Victorian Public Service, delivered a paper entitled 'Usable knowledge and public policy'. Wayne Parsons, from the University of London, gave a paper 'Not just steering but weaving: Relevant knowledge and the craft of building policy capacity'. Randal Stewart, a policy consultant based in Sydney, gave a paper entitled 'Public sector reform knowledge production'. The purposes of this paper are to highlight salient points from the papers and to assess briefly the institutional and governance implications of taking at last some steps beyond the currently prevailing rationalist approaches to policy and governance.     

Gore Vidal’s Anti-Jewish nationalism

Edward Alexander is professor of English at the University of Washington and at Tel Aviv University in Israel. He is author of, among other works, Matthew Arnold and John Stuart Mill; The Resonance of Dust; Isaac Bashevis Singer;and, most recently. The Jewish Idea and Its Enemies.     

Elected leaders and collective land: Farmers’ evaluation of village leaders’ performance in rural China

Previous studies on village elections have focused on the election process, but few have examined post-election outcomes related to local land management systems. Land is the most important resource in Chinese villages, but land management and reallocation are the chief responsibility for elected village leaders. Previous studies show that villager attitudes toward the “fairness” of land reallocations and the type of village elections vary across villages. Some villages have an open election/nomination process while other villages have “closed” or unfair elections. We found that openly elected leaders are more accountable to villagers and that their land management decisions do reflect villager preferences for “fair” land reallocation. Our findings are based on a 2000–2001 survey of 34 villages in rural Shaanxi province. Rozelle is also a member of the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. We acknowledge the finical support of the Fulbright Fellowship and the University of California, Pacific Rim Research Fellowship. We want to thank the three anonymous reviews as well as Kevin O’Brien and Li Lianjiang for their comments and suggestions. In addition, we want to thank our friends and colleagues at Northwest University, Xian for all their help, collaboration and support. This paper was first presented in Chinese at the “Contemporary Rural Chinese Social Life” conference held at Hong Kong Polytechnic University November 21^st and 22^nd 2002.     

Books in review

Abraham Edel is research professor of philosophy at the University of Pennsylvania and Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the City University of New York. The most recent of his many books are Interpreting Education; Aristotle and His Philosophy;and Morality, Philosophy, and Practice.     

Spontaneous or Constructed? Neighborhood Governance Reforms in Los Angeles and Shanghai

Can grassroots government succeed on its own without state involvement? By comparing approaches in two metropolitan governments—neighborhood councils in Los Angeles and resident committees in Shanghai—Bin Chen of the City University of New York at Baruch College, Terry L. Cooper of the University of Southern California, and Rong Sun of Shanghai Tongji University underscore the need to understand the interrelationships among the political and administrative structures where these specific reforms are implemented. Their analysis points out that the efficacy of a government-initiated civic engagement program depends on a balanced combination of state involvement and community self-organization.     

Popular Attitudes toward Distributive Injustice: Beijing and Warsaw Compared

Popular reactions to the transition from centrally planned socialism to a market-based economy are explored through an examination of survey data on distributive justice and injustice attitudes in Beijing, China, in 2000, and in Warsaw, Poland, in 2001. In both capitals objective socioeconomic status characteristics of respondents have weaker and less consistent associations with distributive injustice attitudes than measures of subjective social status and self-reported trends in family standards of living. When objective and subjective respondent background characteristics are controlled for statistically, residents of democratic and enthusiastically capitalist Warsaw have stronger feelings of distributive injustice than respondents in undemocratic and only partially reformed Beijing. However, one exception to this pattern is that Beijing residents favor government redistribution to reduce income differences more than their Warsaw counterparts. Conjectures about the sources of these differences in distributive injustice attitudes are offered. Martin King Whyte is Professor of Sociology at Harvard University. His recent research focuses on changing family patterns in contemporary China, China’s distinctive economic development path, and popular attitudes toward distributive injustice issues. His recent publications include two edited volumes: China’s Revolutions and Intergenerational Relations (University of Michigan Center for Chinese Studies) and One Country, Two Societies? Rural-Urban Inequality in Contemporary China (Harvard University Press, forthcoming). Chunping Han recently completed her PhD in Sociology at Harvard, with a doctoral thesis entitled, Rural-Urban Cleavages in Perceptions of Inequality in Contemporary China.     

Declining options/increasing needs

Before that, he served at the National Institute of Education. He has held teaching appointments at the Universities of Illinois and Oregon and at Cornell University, and is now adjunct professor at George Washington University. He has authored fifteen books, including Finding Work: Cross National Perspectives; Program Evaluation and the Management of Government;and he has edited the last four volumes of Policy Studies Review Annual.