The Transformation of Australian Electoral Analysis: The Two‐Party Preferred Vote — Origins,Impacts, and Critics

Measuring party support in Australia by constructing a “two‐party preferred” vote has had a profound effect, not only on the way political scientists, journalists, and politicians understand electoral “swing” and predict electoral outcomes, but also on their understanding of the party system, their thinking about electoral fairness, and their views about which party or parties can legitimately claim government. This article traces the origins — the maternity as well as the paternity – of the “two‐party preferred”. It documents its spread from federal to state elections, even as voting systems in some states have switched from exhaustive preferential to optional preferential. It discusses its wide‐ranging impact, and its implications for notions of electoral fairness and the legitimacy of election outcomes. It evaluates various criticisms of the concept — technical, pragmatic, and conceptual. And it notes the implications for marginal seat campaigning of the commonly observed “uniform swing”— implications completely at odds with the idea that marginal seats matter.     

Electoral Gender Quotas: Lessons from Argentina and Chile

This comparative case study examines the role of electoral quotas for increasing women's representation in Argentina and Chile. The Central hypothesis is that gender quotas in favourable electoral systems increase women's representation, and a corollary hypothesis is that more women in politics should also promote gender issues in public policy. Since the transitions to democratic regimes, many Argentine and Chilean women still promote gender issues, such as gender quotas, but the different transitions shaped the opportunity space for gender issues in politics. Thus, gender quotas can be effective, but the types of electoral and quota systems are important defining conditions and improvements in gender issues are not guaranteed.     

Political Sophistication and Vote Intention Switching: The Timing of Electoral Volatility in the 2009 German Election Campaign

This article investigates the link between political sophistication and electoral volatility. Showing that there is disagreement in the literature on whether switching party preferences is related to low or high levels of political sophistication, it is then argued that the effect of sophistication on vote switching might differ depending on when switching is measured. The effect of timing on volatility is investigated by means of the Short-term panel of the 2009 German Longitudinal Election Study. Results indicate that timing indeed matters, while sophistication increases the probability of switching parties before the campaign, the effect of political sophistication becomes more negative as Election Day draws near.     

Participation Under Lula: Between Electoral Politics and Governability

This article shows how and why the initial attempts of the Lula administration in Brazil to promote innovative counterhegemonic participatory strategies, such as those put in place by the PT in some of its subnational governments, fell by the wayside. It is argued that the implementation and scope of participatory initiatives under Lula were caught between electoral motivations and the need to secure governability. On the one hand, the need to produce quick results in order to maximize vote‐seeking strategies hindered attempts to promote counterhegemonic participation, while Lula and his inner circle opted for policies that would score immediate marks with the poorest sectors or influence public opinion. On the other hand, participation also took a back seat because the PT concentrated most of its energies on reaching agreements with strategic actors, such as opposition parties or powerful economic groups.     

The Australian Experience of Electoral Bribery: Dealing in Electoral Support

This article explores state and federal Australian cases from the past thirty years — legal judgments, inquiries and political scandals — which implicate the law and concept of electoral bribery. Specifically it examines deals involving preferences and arrangements made between politicians and “third parties” such as lobby groups and the media. It shows that, defying assumptions that it died out a century ago, electoral bribery remains a thorny ethical and legal concept, particularly given evolving norms and electioneering practices. If bribery is to be a workable ethical or legal concept for judging contemporary electoral conduct then it needs to deal with horizontal relations between political actors rather than, as it traditionally has, to focus upon vertical relations between politicians and electors characterised by the former's efforts to buy the latter's votes.     

The ‘New Right' Vote: An Analysis of the Gender Gap in the Vote Choice for the SVP

Studying the Swiss national elections 2003, we find a pronounced gender gap in the SVP vote ‐ women are significantly less likely to vote for this party than are men. In order to explain this gender gap, this article combines two innovative approaches. On the one hand, it links the literature on gender gaps with research on the New Right. On the other, it makes a distinction between the conditional and compositional effects of explanatory factors. Our analysis reveals that conditional effects are of greater relevance than compositional ones. Explanatory factors regularly applied in research on the New Right have a conditional effect inasmuch as they only have an effect on male voters, but cannot explain the behaviour of women. This, in turn, also highlights the importance of a gender‐specific focus for further research.     

Local Democracy and the Transformation of Popular Participation in Chile

Structural reforms, institutional arrangements, and the dominant mode of political party-base linkage all militate against effective popular participation in Chilean local democracy. Structural reforms have constrained local leaders' resources as well as their policymaking prerogatives; institutional arrangements limit public officials' accountability to their constituents and citizens' opportunities for input in decisionmaking. The parties of the center-left Concertación have reinforced this vicious cycle by pursuing a mode of linkage with civil society designed to promote their electoral success with only minimal organization and participation by their grassroots constituents. Such conditions fit well with the desire of elites of the Concertación and the right to depoliticize civil society in order to preserve macroeconomic and political stability. Yet they leave in doubt the efficacy of popular participation and the strength of local democracy in Chile.     

Partisan Pork‐Barrel,Independents and Electoral Advantage: Australia's Regional Partnerships Program in 2004

This article, building on previous research into earlier Australian pork‐barrel schemes, uses data from Australia's Regional Partnerships Program (RPP), and its apportioning of $104 million in constituency‐level grants in 2003–4, to explore the distinctive logic of parliamentary pork‐barrel politics. Results show that the Liberal‐Nationals Coalition's distribution of these funds was consistent with three electoral priorities — to reward its own MPs and show voters that the government “can deliver”; to provide vote‐winning assets in the Coalition's most marginal seats, where even small vote gain can make the difference between victory and defeat; and to try to re‐establish its credibility at the local level in regional seats that had proven vulnerable to inroads made by Independent candidates.     

Relational Goods and Endurance of Voluntary Associational Participation: The Case of the Indigenous Mapuche in Santiago de Chile

This article analyses the reasons for the continuing membership of Mapuche associations in Santiago de Chile after the promulgation of the Indigenous Law in 1993. By following a relational goods approach, the article suggests that the constructed nature of ethnicity leads the Mapuche to create and join ethnic associations in an urban milieu. This study reveals that the main motivations for sustaining an active associational engagement are threefold: identity recovery struggle, leaving an identity legacy and bonding with their ethnic peers; all of these identified as relational goods. This investigation is based on ethnographic fieldwork conducted over eight months.     

For Whom the Bellwether Polls: The Electorate of Eden‐Monaro as an Indicator of Australian Electoral Trends

This article examines the concept of bellwether electorates through a case study of the federal electorate of Eden‐Monaro. Eden‐Monaro is known in Australia for its unparalleled bellwether record, that is, as an electorate whose results consistently approximate national results. The article finds that bellwether seats must have an enduring demographic partisan balance between major parties, organisational competitiveness between the parties in that electorate, and national factors must outweigh local factors in determining election results. A study of Eden‐Monaro particularly focusing on data from the 2013 elections, demonstrates that the seat meets these criteria, and that Eden‐Monaro's bellwether status is not merely coincidence. We argue that if used cautiously, the bellwether concept can be valuable as an indicator of national trends, rather than for any supposed predictive capacity.     

Social Policies and Center‐Right Governments in Argentina and Chile

Latin America's “left turn” expanded cash transfers and public services, contributing to lower poverty and inequality. Recently, right‐leaning candidates and parties have begun to win back seats in the legislature, and in some cases have captured the executive branch. This shift has sparked debate about the future of Latin America's welfare states. This article analyzes social policy reforms enacted by two recent right‐leaning governments: that of Sebastián Piñera in Chile (2010–14) and Mauricio Macri in Argentina (2015–). It finds that contrary to neoliberal adjustment policies of the past, neither Macri nor Piñera engaged in privatization or deep spending cuts. Instead, both administrations facilitated a process of policy drift in some sectors and marginal expansion in others. Policy legacies and the strength of the opposition help to explain these outcomes, suggesting that Latin America's political context has been transformed by the consolidation of democracy and the experience of left party rule.