Subnational governments in a stabilization program: lessons learned in Argentina

Autonomous subnational governments pose a serious challenge to national stabilization strategies. As illustrated by the case of Argentina, fiscal reforms that have been successfuly implemented at the national level have proved to be much harder to induce among subnational governments. Provincial reform is still largely pending and provincial governments continue to generate large public deficits, posing a threat to the success of Argentina's overall reform program in the medium and long term.

This paper provides a retrospective on Argentina's reform program with a focus on subnational governments. It identifies elements within the reform program itself, such as windfall increases of guaranteed central transfers, that systematically undermined early efforts to induce provincial reform. It also examines the government's strategy to neutralize their effects through the decentralization of services and the negotiation of two fiscal pacts, as well as its success in introducing major reforms by capitalizing on the financial pressure that resulted from the Mexican crisis. Finally, it draws lessons of experience that may be useful for policy makers faced with the similar challenge of inducing fiscal reform within autonomous subnational goverments.     

State Infrastructural Power and Nationalism: Comparative Lessons from Mexico and Argentina

This article focuses on the nexus between state infrastructural power and legitimacy. A comparative case study of nationalism in mid-twentieth-century Mexico and Argentina provides the basis for theorizing the impact of state infrastructural power on transformations of official understandings of nationhood. Both countries experienced a transition from liberal to popular nationalism. The extent to which popular nationalism became a regular product of state organizations varied between the two cases, depending on the timing of state development. The temporal congruence between the expansion of state infrastructural power and ideological change, as exemplified by Mexico under Cárdenas, facilitated the full institutionalization of the new official ideology, whereas a disjuncture between state development and ideological change, as exemplified by Argentina under Perón, inhibited such a comprehensive transformation of nationalism.     

Mexico and Argentina: Economic reform and technocratic decision making

This article examines the Mexican and Argentine cases of market reform and argues that despite important differences in regime type and in recent economic and political trajectories, the decision-making process in the two countries came to display important common features. In both cases, economic crises and debt negotiations played key roles in propelling technocratic reformers into positions of policy predominance; both exhibited exclusionary technocratic decision-making styles in which small technocratic elites insulated themselves from both extra and intra state pressures. While policy isolation was no doubt necessary for the successful implementation of market reforms, this style may be counter-productive to political stability over the long term. Judith Teichman is Professor of Political Science at the University of Toronto. Her articles have appeared in such journals asLatin American Research Review, Latin American Perspectives, Mexican Studies/Estudios Mexicanos, andThe Canadian Journal of Political Science and in edited volumes. She is the author ofPolicymaking in Mexico: From Boom to Crisis andPrivatization and Political Change in Mexico and is currently carrying out a comparative study of the structural adjustment policy process in Mexico, Argentina, and Chile.     

Wealth Inequality,Educational Environment and School Enrolment: Evidence from Mexico

Using data from the extended section of the 2010 Mexican census (2.9 million households), we study how school enrolment is associated with wealth inequality and with the educational environment the child is exposed to at the household and municipal levels. We provide robust evidence of wealth inequality as a negative predictor of school enrolment for children in primary, secondary and high school age ranges while a positive role is played by the educational environment. Through the introduction of interaction terms, we account for how economic and educational variables are intertwined at both the household and the municipal level, and we are able to illustrate the considerable heterogeneity in the role of adult education for households at different standards of living.     

Varieties and crises of neoliberal globalisation: Argentina,Turkey and the imf

Argentina and Turkey are two important ‘emerging market countries’ that experienced a major economic crisis during the same year. Focusing on the period leading up to the respective 2001 crises in the two countries, this article attempts to place the two experiments in historical perspective and provide an understanding of the common elements as well as the diversity of the neoliberal restructuring process in semi-peripheral settings. The article also attempts to identify some of the key mistakes made by the imf, which was, in part, responsible for the crises experienced. A central conclusion is that ‘new’ or unconsolidated democracies find themselves particularly vulnerable when they are suddenly and prematurely exposed to financial and capital account liberalisation. The outcome is a highly fragile, debt-led growth path with costly consequences. Indeed, although both countries have managed to accomplish impressive recoveries in the post-crisis period, given their past trajectories and the heavy debt burden that they face, it is too early to say that the recovery process will be translated into sustained and crisis-free growth. The regional environment in which the two countries find themselves might be particularly important in this context, with the powerful EU anchor a possible important advantage in the Turkish context.     

Police Collapse in Authoritarian Regimes: Lessons from Tunisia

The quick unraveling of authoritarian systems specifically designed to bear social pressure during revolutions is puzzling. Building on the 2011 Tunisian revolution, this article analyzes the collapse of the police apparatus during the 2011 revolution. In line with Way and Levitsky's study of authoritarian collapse, this article shows that the low cohesion and low scope of the security forces is one of the main factors explaining the rapid collapse of one of the Arab world's seemingly most solid repressive systems. At the theoretical level, this article will demonstrate that preference falsification is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it can nourish authoritarian resilience. On the other, it can also weaken repressive regimes by making core members of the regime overestimate the loyalty of the low-ranking members of the security apparatus.     

Varieties of Authoritarianism: The Organization of the Military State and its Effects on Federalism in Argentina and Brazil

While much has been written about democracy and democratization, far less attention has been paid to the institutional organization of authoritarian regimes. Scholars have focused on the causes, economic policies, societal support, intra-elite conflicts, or human-rights violations of authoritarian regimes. More recently, political scientists have also studied the role of elections and legislatures on the survival of authoritarian regimes. However, the very different ways in which authoritarian regimes, and military regimes in particular, organize the government, occupy the state apparatus, and modify the country’s political institutions have largely gone under-theorized. This essay contributes to fill in this void by analyzing how the last military regimes of Argentina (1976–1983) and Brazil (1964–1985) organized power within the state and the legacies of such organization on the institutions of federalism. The essay argues that variation in the organization of the state under the military regimes accounts for the divergent origins of post-developmental decentralization, which in turn explains the contrasting evolution of intergovernmental relations in each country. The article contributes to the recent literature on electoral authoritarian regimes by showing that elections and legislatures matter not only to regime survival but also to policy outcomes.     

Dilemmas and Horizontal Logics: Subnational Industrial Policy in Spain and Brazil

Scholars of "decentralization" have recently revealed the importance of subnational industrial policy in responding to the challenges of globalization. But these treatments tend to make endemic assumptions about either the universal efficiency or inefficiency of decentralization. This article argues that subnational industrial policy performance is politically contingent and develops national patterns that are more composite than endemic. Political contingency is analyzed in terms of subnational incumbents'incentives to delegate authority and resources to industrial policy agencies and the degree of symmetry in authority and information flows across these agencies. A cross-regional/cross-national comparison of several subnational units in Spain and Brazil demonstrates that subnational industrial policy is implemented and maintained where incumbents delegate and policy-making agencies are symmetrically integrated.     

Illiberal Democrats versus Undemocratic Liberals: The Struggle Over the Future of Thailand's Fragile Democracy

Abstract

This article examines the inter-related factors that underpin the fragility of Thailand's democracy. Uneven economic development, the high levels of income inequality, and unequal access to power and resources are significant drivers of Thailand's ongoing political conflict. Social divides across classes and regions, and populist exploitation of the rural poor's sense of alienation from the traditional ruling elites, provide a volatile backdrop to national politics. In addition, Thailand's unstable political history and the weakness of liberal institutions present risks to its democracy. The army, the revered monarch and the judiciary comprise elites whose periodic interventions in politics and reservations about electoral democracy further render the Thai polity fragile. Thailand's political situation represents a ‘slow-burning’ crisis of democracy: a long-term historical confrontation developing slowly, with the fundamental issues unresolved. It is undergoing a period of social turmoil fuelled by a power struggle between competing material interests and by an ideational contest to determine the country's constitutive political rules. This can be conceptualised as a struggle for control of Thailand's future between a heterogeneous populist-capitalist movement of illiberal democracy and conservative forces of undemocratic liberalism.     

Hardening Budget Constraints: A Cross-National Study of Fiscal Sustainability and Subnational Debt

This study explores the financial sustainability of subnational governments in four different countries. Scholars argue that subnational fiscal capacity helps local governments deliver better public services and provide public goods, which in turn helps to promote economic growth. While administrative control by the central governments contributes to reducing moral hazard from the soft budget constraints, bottom-up strategies to manage fiscal profligacy also need attention. The study first provides understanding about the characteristics of central-local governance and management of subnational government debt of each country. Then, we test our hypotheses regarding local fiscal capacity and administrative control, including political-economic factors that may affect debt spending by local governments. Our findings show that subnational fiscal sustainability improves when the central governments have clear rules to intergovernmental transfers in place and more (market) liberal policies, meanwhile when subnational governments have a more fiscal capacity and less intergovernmental transfers they are able to manage their debt more soundly.     

Delegative dilemmas and horizontal logics: Subnational industrial policy in Spain and Brazil

Scholars of “decentralization” have recently revealed the importance of subnational industrial policy in responding to the challenges of globalization. But these treatments tend to make endemic assumptions about either the universal efficiency or inefficiency of decentralization. This article argues that subnational industrial policy performance is politically contingent and develops national patterns that are more composite than endemic. Political contingency is analyzed in terms of subnational incumbents' incentives to delegate authority and resources to industrial policy agencies and the degree of symmetry in authority and information flows across these agencies. A cross-regional/cross-national comparison of several subnational units in Spain and Brazil demonstrates that subnational industrial policy is implemented and maintained where incumbents delegate and policy-making agencies are symmetrically integrated. Alfred P. Montero is an assistant professor of Political Science at Carleton College and book review editor forLatin American Politics and Society. His research on subnational political economy is the subject of his forthcoming book,Shifting States in Global Markets: Subnational Industrial Policy in Contemporary Brazil and Spain, Penn State University Press. He has published on the subject of the political economy of decentralization and federalism inComparative Politics, Latin American Politics and Society, Publius: The Journal of Federalism, and numerous edited volumes.     

Conceptualising and tracing the increased territorialisation of politics: insights from Argentina

The territorialisation of politics is a crucial transformation in state–society relations that has implications on how contemporary politics works. Defined here as the dispute for the physical control of space, be it a municipality, province or portion of land, within one or more politically constituted entities. It does not mean the emergence of a new regime type, but the process through which the territory re-emerges as a new cleavage after neoliberal reforms and authoritarian regimes have weakened/dissolved neo-corporatist arrangements for the resolution of socio-political conflicts in society. It is a cleavage because central political divisions are produced as a result of the physical encounter of or distance between political actors and of the dispute for the control of a territory for sociopolitical goals and causes that are not always territorially defined. Departing from this definition, I also raise potential explanatory hypotheses for the transformations that favoured this transformation in Argentina.     

A Subnational Study of Insurgency: FARC Violence in the 1990s

This article examines the traditional political and economic factors that have been purported to explain the prevalence of insurgency. It tests the following hypotheses at the subnational level in Colombia: guerrilla violence is positively associated with exports; higher levels of insurgency are associated with low levels of GDP per capita or negative growth rates; guerrilla violence emerges in the context of weak state presence; and higher levels of state repression are associated with higher levels of insurgent violence. The analysis utilizes a zero-inflated negative binomial to capture dynamics of both intensity and onset of violence. The econometric analysis is supplemented with cartographic visualization and qualitative analysis.     

Labour demand and Agroindustrial development: The evidence from Mexico

Agroindustrialisation, in contrast to assertions by Mexican policy‐makers, has had a negative employment‐generating effect in agriculture in the region known as El Bajío. The impact of widespread crop substitution and the wholesale transfer of technology promoted by transnational processing plants have both reduced the total labour employed and increased the instability of employment through heightened seasonality of labour demand. A decomposition analysis assesses the role played by various determinants of labour demand in the alteration of regional agricultural employment which has resulted from agro‐industrialisation.     

Subnational Collective Action: The Varied Patterns of Mobilisation of Local Government Associations

This article assesses differences in the way local government associations organise to influence EU legislation in different countries. EU policy outcomes have an increasing financial and administrative impact on local government. This has been increasingly recognised by both EU institutions and many national governments, and recent reforms have sought to ensure greater involvement of local authorities in the preparation of EU proposals and domestic pre-negotiations, with an emphasis on the aggregation of local government interests via European and national local government associations. Research suggests that representative organisations need to be well resourced to be able to mobilise at both European and national level to influence EU proposals. This article empirically assesses these claims by examining attempts by local government associations in England, Denmark and Ireland to influence EU environmental directives. The findings suggest that financial, staffing, and informational resources, as well as structural issues, are important factors influencing how local government representative bodies respond to EU legislative proposals.     

Don’t buy from me Argentina: Politics, economics, and trade liberalization in Argentina, 1992–2001

Recently, while opening their markets to international trade through tariff reduction, developing nations have been quietly adopting nontariff measures that impose new barriers on imports. This study contributes to a literature that assesses reactions to recent widespread economic reform, particularly in the developing world. While analysts have identified many determinants of the reform process, we are only beginning to assess the factors that shape its twists, turns, and even reversals. In particular, we do not yet have a clear understanding of the determinants of governments’ treatment of different groups and actors in this process. This article examines these reactions to trade liberalization in Argentina, an important middle-income nation, by drawing upon the significant body of theoretical and empirical literature on trade policy in developed nations that demonstrates that both economic and political factors condition policy implementation. Utilizing a data set of nontariff trade disputes from 1992 to 2001, the analysis employs probit maximum likelihood techniques to assess the relationship between trade policy outputs and economic and political factors. The findings suggest that economic factors, including import flows, and political factors such as the breadth of representation appear to condition trade policy decisions in Argentina. The results also suggest that overall macroeconomic context affects policy outputs. Jeffrey Drope is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science, University of Miami. His recent articles and current research examine the political economy of trade policy and, more generally, how interests and institutions interact to generate policy. I thank Wendy Hansen, Ken Roberts, and theSCID reviewers and editors for valuable comments, the Latin American Institute at the University of New Mexico for financial support, and Pablo Sanguinetti for helpful introductions in Argentina.