Uncertain Justice for Nuclear Terror: Deterrence of Anonymous Attacks Through Attribution

In light of ongoing work to improve nuclear attribution capabilities, policymakers could be tempted to consider a nuclear terrorism deterrence doctrine relying strongly on the ability of those capabilities to support retaliation against states that supply materials used anonymously in an attack. Although the United States must develop the best possible nuclear attribution capabilities, at the very least to support response actions after an attack, prospects for deterrence are uncertain. To accommodate these uncertainties, as well as the wide range of possible nuclear terrorism scenarios, the United States should adopt a broadly scoped operationally ambiguous declaratory policy in the context of a comprehensive strategic doctrine to prevent nuclear terrorism.     

The Logic of Terrorism: Existential Anxiety,the Search for Meaning,and Terrorist Ideologies

Drawing from the work of political theorists, theologians, anthropologists, journalists, philosophers, and contemporary psychologists studying Terror Management Theory (TMT), it becomes possible to see that the concepts of existentialism and ideology may be useful for modern thinkers attempting to understand a problem such as terrorism. Integrating work from these fields makes it possible to see that terrorism may be driven by an existential-terroristic feedback loop: a cycle in which people support or engage in terrorism to alleviate existential anxiety but ultimately find this anxiety exacerbated in the wake of the violence they create or sanction. The loop is closed when this exacerbated anxiety compels them to reaffirm their support of, or participation in, terrorist violence. If this model is valid, then effectively addressing the problem of terrorism requires joining existing U.S. policies with policies that address ideologies. Specifically, policies must aspire to a) mitigate existential anxiety, b) provide a compelling counter-narrative, c) address environmental factors conducive to radicalization, d) prevent the formation of radicalized groups, and e) deradicalize existing ideologues.     

A Theory of Terrorist Leadership (and its Consequences for Leadership Targeting)

States often target terrorist leaders with the belief that the leader's death or capture will cause the terrorist organization to collapse. Yet the history of this strategy of “leadership targeting” provides a mixed record—for every example of effectiveness, there are similar examples of ineffectiveness. The central question of this article is: what makes a terrorist leader important? Specifically, what does a terrorist leader do that no one else can do (or do as well) for the organization? To answer this question, I develop a theory of terrorist leadership that argues that leaders might potentially perform two main functions: they can provide inspiration and/or operational direction (or not for both). I also theorize as to how and why the provision of these functions changes over time as the organization itself changes. The consequences for leadership targeting flow naturally from this theory—when leaders provide these functions to the organization, leadership targeting is most likely to be effective. Case studies of Algeria, Peru, and Japan offer insights into why some cases of leadership targeting were effective and why others were not. The conclusion extends this model with an analysis of al-Qaeda's prospects after the death of bin Laden.     

Terrorism and Public Opinion: The Effects of Terrorist Attacks on the Popularity of the President of the United States

This article uses a large-n dataset to investigate the effect of terrorist attacks with American victims on the popularity of the U.S. president. The study uses two broad theoretical frameworks to analyze this effect, the score-keeping framework and the rally-effect framework. The findings of the study show that, when excluding the effect from the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, actual terrorist attacks have no generalizable short-term impact on the popularity of the U.S. president. This indicates that even though the topics of national security, terrorism, and the president’s ability to handle these issues are important in the political debate in the United States, actual terrorism has little or no short-term impact on presidential approval ratings.     

Research Note: Terrorist Groups as Business Firms: A New Typological Framework

Existing typological frameworks do not adequately categorize terrorist groups by their operational characteristics. We propose a new framework which compares terrorist groups to business firms. In our framework, terrorist groups are mapped on two axes: centralization of resources and centralization of operations. We separate terrorist groups into four typologies echoing familiar business arrangements: Hierarchy, Venture Capital, Franchise, and Brand. Responses to each typology are briefly sketched out. We conclude by analyzing the changes in Al Qaeda over the last two decades in the context of our framework. We close by proposing appropriate policy responses to combat Al Qaeda in light of its current Brand typology.     

Choose Your Weapon: The Impact of Strategic Considerations and Resource Constraints on Terrorist Group Weapon Selection

ABSTRACT

Historians of terrorism note that modern terrorists rely almost exclusively on two weapon types: the gun and the bomb. However, the comparative use of these weapons differs from one terrorist group to the next. We exploit this variation to examine how the tactical decisions of terrorists respond to both strategic aspirations and resource constraints. We argue that a group’s goals (a strategic consideration) and size (a resource constraint) provide a parsimonious explanation for weapon selection. Because firearms inherently expose the shooter to higher risk, are more precise, and must be used if a group aspires to maintain social order, they are unlikely to be used by groups with limited recruits in a campaign of violence. We test this theory using data on over 350 terrorist organizations. Our analysis shows that strategic considerations and resource constraints both impact tactical choices, although groups with the most expansive goals, those which transcend national borders, as well as militias, are two interesting exceptions to our theory. Our research has implications for the use of disaggregated tactical data and in furthering our understanding of the rationality of terrorism.     

The Double Logic of Internal Purges: New Evidence from Francoist Spain

Abstract

States often engage in internal purges to eliminate political dissidents within their own ranks. However, partly because of the absence of reliable data, we know little about the logic and dynamics of these purges, particularly of lower-rank members of the state. Why do state authorities persecute these individuals when they do not entail a clear threat to the regime? We focus on the purges of public-school teachers during the early years of Francisco Franco’s regime in Spain. Using detailed historical sources, we explore whether teachers were more likely to be purged following the two main cleavages in 1930s Spain: the left-right divide and the center-periphery (i.e., nationalist) cleavage. Our results suggest that while the Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) was still unfolding Francoist authorities targeted mainly teachers from leftist localities, thus focusing on potential security threats behind the frontlines. After winning the war, Francoists started to target more intensively teachers from national minority groups in order to promote nation-building policies leading to their assimilation. Our findings highlight the double logic of purging as both a preemptive measure against internal threats and as a nation-building tool.     

西方“技术联盟”:构建新科技霸权的战略路径

新一轮科技革命与产业变革正在深入发展,科技正成为大国战略竞争的主战场。围绕科技发展与应用之规则、标准、体系等因素的竞争,将直接影响到国际战略的权力结构与国际体系的重塑。基于"技术多边主义"战略,美国将与其伙伴国家围绕高科技领域组建"技术联盟",共同制定全球科技发展与治理的新规则、新标准,进而实现对新科技塑造权力的掌握。随着西方"技术联盟"框架体系日渐成型,全球力量结构、国际格局与国际体系都将受到深刻影响。     

The War on Terrorism and the Decline of Terrorist Group Formation: A Research Note

Over the course of the twentieth century, terrorist organizations possessing different political and religious outlooks have been formed in different regions of the world. This note reports that the peak decades for the formation of terrorist groups were the 1970s and 1980s. Since that period, the pace of terrorist group formation has slowed substantially. Further, during the 1970s and 1980s the political goals of terrorist bands consisted of a heterogeneous mix of nationalist, left-wing revolutionary, right-wing radical and religious agendas. During the 1990s new terrorist groups have been largely reflective of religious concerns, Islamist ones in particular.     

自杀式恐怖袭击面面观--《殉教者:伊斯兰教与自杀式袭击》介评

自杀式恐怖主义由来已久,但使用人体炸弹的密集度及致命度已经使自杀式恐怖袭击变成一种战略威胁,危及整个人类社会的安全。美国和解出版社2004年出版的由以色列国防军历史局局长肖尔·谢伊撰写的《殉教者:伊斯兰教与自杀式袭击》①一书,是当今世界就自杀式恐怖主义问题出版的第一部专著。该书聚焦分析伊斯兰人体炸弹这一特殊现象,是因为以“基地”为先锋的伊斯兰恐怖组织已将自杀式袭击变成激进伊斯兰与西方文化(包括以色列和犹太复国主义)冲突中的“一种战略武器”。2002年10-11月,从也门水域袭击法国油轮到印度尼西亚的巴厘岛爆炸再到车…     

中印关系：一种新类型国际关系的战略选择

1917年的十月革命、1947年的杜鲁门主义以及1991年的苏联解体是世界现代史上三个重要的历史性时点。由此，它们把近100年的世界历史划分为了三个不同的历史阶段。它们分别可称为：冷战前期、冷战中期和冷战后期。而冷战后的国际关系也随之发生了许多重要的变化。其中新兴发展中大国的崛起是最重要的历史事件之一。中印关系就是其典型的代表。     

对中国周边环境新变化的战略思考

随着中国崛起、亚洲振兴与美国“重返”,中国的周边环境正在发生结构性的重大变化,中国、中国邻国与美国三方之间复杂互动,中国在周边机遇与挑战交织联动,中国应加快制定并实施“周边战略”,通过主动经营赢得战略主动权。     

Target Hardening and Terrorist Signaling: The Case of Aviation Security

In this article, we examine the relationship between hardening a target and the value that a terrorist group derives from attacking it. We use a simple expected value framework to compare how the expected value of attacking a hardened target varies between a violence-based approach, where terrorists are presumed to be maximizing the physical damage done to the target, and a signaling-based approach, where terrorists are presumed to be maximizing the symbolic value of their attack. We argue that, if it is proper to understand terrorist attacks as costly signals of terrorist strength or determination, hardening a target actually increases the expected value of attacking a target (relative to its value before hardening), even if the attack fails. We go on to examine the evolution of aviation security, and trace how al-Qaeda's views of airplanes and airports as targets have changed since 9/11. As aviation targets were hardened with increasingly onerous security measures, al-Qaeda began to see even attacks that did not result in detonation as successes, in large part because of what they signaled about al-Qaeda's abilities, and the ability of al-Qaeda to impose costs on the U.S. and other countries even in the absence of explosions.     

North Korea: The Case for Strategic Entanglement

North Korea is a state shrouded in secrecy, yet it receives an enormous amount of media attention. Its reclusive nature makes analysis difficult and speculative. What is certain is that a dangerous stalemate regarding nuclear weapons has persisted for far too long and is an obstacle to any real change in the political system. History, culture, and ideology all rule the state's actions; it is therefore a mistake to assume North Korean negotiators can act with autonomy. A new and dynamic means to deal with this dilemma should be developed, for the past has demonstrated that threats and demands will not coerce Pyongyang into submitting, in fact, that approach will only exacerbate the problem. An effective means to move beyond the stalemate is needed.     

无人攻击机面临的国际法挑战——以美国在巴基斯坦的无人机攻击为例

过去十年间,无人机数量和战场使用快速增加。自2004年以来,美国利用无人攻击机在巴基斯坦境内定点清除基地组织和塔利班人员,在取得一定打击效果的同时,也造成了严重的平民伤亡。许多批评者认为,在巴基斯坦的无人机攻击不仅存在法律方面的问题,而且对南亚反恐局势产生了负面作用。本文试从国际法,着重是战争法的角度分析在巴无人机攻击的非法性及其影响。     

Closer Alliance with WaShington: Tokyo's Strategic Springboard for the New Century

The two houses of Japan's Diet (Parliament) provided the legal prop for theNew Japan-US Defense Guidelines by passing three related acts recently,thus eventually hammering out the reinforced overall framework for the bilateralcross-century security project, after an elapse of three years. Introduction of thenew guidelines, the basis for Tokyo's 21 century-oriented diplomatic/securitystrategy, coupled with their related acts, will exert a significant impact onJapan's future direction, the Asia-Pacific strategic configuration and the securityinterests of its neighboring nations. It will also spark troubles all around. Yet it     

美国“一体化威慑”的战略逻辑：以AUKUS的演进为范例

在大国竞争背景下,美国拜登政府正式提出并实践“一体化威慑”战略概念。“一体化威慑”意味着通过跨越领域、区域、冲突域、部门、盟国和伙伴等五个维度的“一体化”调度,统筹“拒止性威慑”“韧性威慑”“直接和集体施加成本进行威慑”三种威慑逻辑,针对特定的竞争对手和安全问题施加威慑。在战略逻辑上,美国以“不对称多极”格局为基础,以海洋特别是西太平洋为主要场域,以中国为主要威慑对象并以“印太”为建构区域,通过“网络化”的作用方式,灵活统筹并“量身定制”地施加威慑。在“印太战略”推进下,“美英澳三边安全伙伴关系”(AUKUS)成为美国实施“一体化威慑”的范例。AUKUS由美国联合最亲密盟友发起,针对美国所谓的战略竞争对手中国,以西太平洋特别是南海、台海、东海为战略前沿,通过将“欧洲—大西洋”引入“印度—太平洋”来加强跨区域威慑,并以“全政府”方式运作,囊括核潜艇、高超声速等先进能力、网络和太空等重要领域,考虑不同冲突形态,不断取得进展。然而,AUKUS的进一步推进将面临诸多“一体化威慑”固有的内在和外在困难,未来仍存在不确定性。     

The Global Strategic Situation in 2014: A Turbulent Year

The author considers that 2014 was a year of confusion and disorder. The world experienced a series of destabilizing events: global geopolitical tensions further intensified with the endless conflicts in Ukraine, the Islamic State emerged in force; West Africa saw an Ebola outbreak; and oil prices plummeted. We will not be able to extricate ourselves out of this chaos unless we can transform the existing flawed global order and rules. The U.S. and other big powers should take up more responsibilities and play a more constructive role in global governance.