“萨德入韩”与东北亚的“安全困境”:基于新现实主义的分析

当前东北亚地区扑朔迷离的形势可视为朝鲜核试验、萨德入韩以及美国的亚洲回归政策共同、交互作用的结果。美国的亚洲回归以及转而实施亚太再平衡政策其旨在应对中国的崛起,对中国进行战略封锁。在此背景下,朝鲜核试验(第四、五次)、朝鲜频繁的导弹试射、韩国部署萨德系统等破坏了东北亚既存的和平共处和战略均衡局面,大有使韩美日和朝中俄回归到冷战式对立之势,东北亚可能再现新冷战格局,地区安全困境也将日趋严峻。本文认为,美国积极推进萨德入韩的根本动因在于:一方面向日益紧密的中韩关系打入楔子,另一方面要实现对中俄的战略遏制。韩国同意部署萨德本身,一方面是没有充分认识到它的负面影响,另一方面则是明显的战略误判。萨德入韩使得半岛局势急转直下的同时,也使得半岛成为东北亚各国回归传统战略博弈的主战场。中国之所以对韩国同意部署萨德的行为产生怀疑并敏感的反应,原因在于萨德系统不能有效应对朝鲜的攻击,而是为了弥补美国应对中国的导弹防御系统(MD)的缺口。从这种意义上说,部署萨德的负面影响将日益凸显:一是它并不能减少朝鲜的安全威胁,反而有可能刺激朝鲜而使得韩国更加不安全;二是中韩关系将因此严重受损,两国政治、经济、人文交流与合作必将受到冲击;三是东北亚地区将可能再次回归到两极对立状态,朝鲜半岛的安全困境将日益深化。     

New EU Members in Europe's Security Policy

What impact will the 2004 round of enlargement have on the European Union's common foreign and security policy? This article argues that the new members' arrival in theory strengthens the Euroatlantic camp within the EU. This impact has, however, been limited by the accession states' difficulty in exercising effective influence in Brussels so far, and their foreign policy is also coming under pressure at home because of the unpopularity of the Iraq War. The newcomers hold distinct views on the EU's policy toward Russia and other countries of the former Soviet Union. On this point, their efforts have begun to slowly but demonstrably transform the European Union's own involvement in countries on the EU's eastern frontier. In addition, the first signs are becoming apparent of the new members' effective imprint on the EU's common foreign and security policy.     

The Sirens' Call of Relative Gains Concerns: A Critical Analysis of Their Presumed Rationality in the Prisoners' Dilemma

The notion that in international interactions state-actors care not only about their own absolute gains, but also about the size of these gains relative to what other actors receive, is one of the pillars on which rests neorealists' pessimism about the prospects of cooperation in repeated Prisoners' Dilemma (PD) and, by extension, in international politics. Although there has been a lively debate over the impact of relative gains concerns on the prospects of cooperation, the prior question, whether states should in fact care about relative gains at all, has not been seriously confronted. This article questions the assumption that rational states should care about relative gains in PD. As the literature motivates them, relative gains concerns are best understood as a heuristic device designed to guide states toward inter-temporal optimization of their absolute payoffs. Using simulated tournaments of a model of a dynamic, multi-player PD, this article puts to the test whether relative gains concerns in fact achieve this purpose. Contrary to what has been presumed, the analysis demonstrates that in many contexts it is harmful and dangerous for states to care about relative gains. Furthermore, whenever states are in a position to tell whether, in a particular setting, it might be rational for them to care about relative gains, the heuristic of relative gains concerns is redundant. The important issues that the literature on relative gains has sought to address should continue to be discussed, but not through the lens of the problematic and misleading conceptual apparatus of relative gains concerns.     

安全两难与中俄关系

中俄关系虽处在良好的发展时期,但两国所具有的某些特点决定了安全两难依然是潜藏在两国间的"暗流".两国应该意识到这是一个无法避免的"自然"现象,同时,两国也不能够回避问题,应予以高度的重视.最关键的是找到跳出两难局面的道路,设法降低相互防范心理的程度.中俄两国欲实现共同安全、缓解两难局面,惟一的出路在于继续扩大和加深全方位的合作.     

识别朝鲜半岛的安全困境与非安全困境

安全困境是现实主义理论的核心概念,常被用来分析围绕朝鲜半岛问题的安全困局。但是,安全困境的定义非常严格,适应的场景有限。"无政府状态""双方均无恶性意图""包括进攻能力在内的权力累积"等是安全困境必不可少的三个方面。在实际应用中,"双方均无恶性意图"这一点经常被模糊或忽视,导致安全困境概念被滥用。朝鲜半岛主要力量之间的博弈,包括朝韩、朝美等,很难用安全困境来解释。韩中、韩俄之间围绕萨德的博弈属于安全困境,但在萨德问题上韩国只是配角,作为主角的美国有蓄意破坏地区战略平衡、置中俄于不安全境地的主观意图,因此美俄、美中之间围绕萨德问题的博弈不属于安全困境。如果不从军备竞赛和敌意螺旋的角度,而是从"安全困境"的角度来解释当前朝鲜半岛安全困局的话,不能把握问题的实质。     

“安全困境”概念辨析

“安全困境”是国际安全领域中的一个基本概念。巴特菲尔德和赫兹共同提出了这一概念。善良的意图、无法决断的不肯定性、自我挫败或矛盾的政策以及“悲剧”含义是判定一种情势是否为“安全困境”的参照标准。国际政治中存在着“体系引导型”和“国家引导型”两类安全困境 ,二者的运行过程是相同的 ,但在缓解和逃逸问题上存在着重要区别。     

试论印度参与国际合作

冷战结束后,随着全球化的不断深入和发展,不仅全球性的问题日益突出而且世界各国的联系日益密切,国际组织和国际机制日益兴起,其作用有不断得到强化的趋势。在这种情况下,任何国家都不可能游离于国际组织和国际机制之外独立发展。于是,印度政府转变思维方式,开始在国际机制下通过加强国际合作来谋求自身的国家利益。但与此同时,印度对美国主宰和奉行的“新体制主义”深为警惕,极力主张多极化世界格局,力争自己在其中谋得一席之地。     

Cantankerous Cooperation: Democracies,Authoritarian Regimes,and the Prisoner's Dilemma

One of the most important debates in the field of international relations is over the effect of regime type on militarized conflict. This debate, however, has rarely extended to how regime type influences other aspects of foreign policy. Using a computer simulated intergroup prisoner's dilemma, we investigate whether democratic decisionmaking groups are more cooperative than authoritarian decisionmaking groups. We argue that differences between cooperation tendencies of groups can be explained by the structure of the decision process. Repeated simulations show that democracies tend to be more consistent in their decisions in comparison to authoritarian groups. Implications for international relations theory and policy are discussed.     

论中日韩安全合作

中日韩安全合作可分为传统安全与非传统安全领域,各类非传统安全问题催生了中日韩合作,传统安全合作也迈出了可喜的步伐,中日韩领导人会议在扭转地区安全范式上有了初步成果。三国的实质性合作存在结构性机会,即非传统安全合作稳步推进的同时,以危机管理作为传统安全合作的突破口,非传统安全合作能够对其产生溢出效应。目前虽然无法从根本上改变相关国家之间的安全困境,但能够通过高层沟通增加互信,向＂协治安全＂前景发展。     

Sino-Mongolian Security Cooperation

The security situation in western China has been attracting the concern of neighboring countries. Transnational ethnic groups, Kazakhs and Mongolians, are located in western Mongolia and western China. Although Mongolia has not yet witnessed any acts of terrorism and even though the Mongolian-China border is peaceful, the two countries need to be alert to terrorist attacks, given the growing cross-border trade, direct exchanges between local governments, and communications between border residents. The two countries should therefore take note of the changes in the security situation when they cooperate with each other.     

安全观转型与中印安全合作

冷战结束后 ,安全的定义不断得到扩延和发展。面对日益凸显的广义安全威胁 ,中印两国的安全观也相应发生转变。安全观转型为中国和印度提供了更多安全合作的契机 ,有助于两国在合作与互信的良性互动中改善关系。     

拉美地区的安全形势与安全合作

当前拉美国家面临的安全问题和安全形势包括国际安全和国内安全两个方面。国际安全方面的主要威胁和问题是恐怖主义、毒品走私、非法移民和难民、边界和领土的争端与冲突、霸权主义和强权政治的威胁、敌对势力的颠覆活动。国内安全方面的主要威胁和问题是政治的脆弱性、治理能力的丧失、经济的危机、失业和贫困人口的增加、社会的动乱、民族间的冲突。自冷战结束以来 ,恐怖主义的凸显成为影响国际安全的主要因素之一。“九一一”事件后 ,拉美国家之间、拉美国家与美国之间在安全和反恐问题上的合作在加强。出于各自利益的考虑 ,美国在安全和反恐斗争方面需要拉美国家的合作 ,而拉美国家在维护国内和国际安全方面也需要美国的支持。然而 ,拉美国家之间 ,特别是美拉之间在上述问题上也存在不少矛盾和斗争。美国借反恐加紧控制拉美国家 ,而拉美国家当然不会听任美国的控制。美拉之间这种既有合作又有矛盾和斗争的状况将会继续下去。     

东亚安全困境及其出路

安全困境是国际安全研究中一个重要的概念。它主要界定的是在国际无政府状态下,主权国家行为体间因互信的缺乏和彼此猜疑,出于安全目的而采取的国家行为,最终却导致国际关系中安全普遍缺失的危险境况。后冷战时期,东亚普遍存在着安全困境。东亚安全困境的形成有着深刻的结构性原因。只有构建综合安全,建立有效的区域安全机制,东亚安全困境才能有真正的出路。     

东北亚安全困境及其战略应对

本文以寻求打破东北亚安全困境之道为主旨.东北亚安全困境主要体现为结构性困境、进程性困境和功能性困境.双边同盟、均势与合作安全并存是当前东北亚安全合作的主要特征,东北亚相关诸国应对安全困境的战略路径以解决进程性困境为着眼点,在功能性领域着力不够,尚未从根本上触动结构性困境.东北亚多边安全机制可能的路径是通过合作安全逐步确立集体安全,通过六方会谈的制度化建设促进各国的对话、协调,以制度化地推进行动议程.东北亚安全困境制约着中国和平发展的总体环境,未来中国将在东北亚和平与繁荣上扮演越来越重要的角色.     

The Sino-Mongolian Security Cooperation

The security situation in western China has been attracting the concern of neighboring countries.Transnational ethnic groups,Kazakhs and Mongolians,are located in western Mongolia and western China.Although Mongolia has not yet witnessed any acts of terrorism and even though the Mongolian-China border is peaceful,the two countries need to be alert to terrorist attacks,given the growing cross-border trade,direct exchanges between local governments,and communications between border residents.The two countries should therefore take note of the changes in the security situation when they cooperate with each other.     

欧洲快速反应部队与美欧安全关系

欧洲安全与防务政策的实施以及欧洲快速反应部队的组建表明,作为欧洲一体化重要组成部分欧洲独立防卫体系的构建已迈出了实质性的步伐,美欧安全关系中诸多矛盾和分歧不断深化,建立美欧新的利益平衡机制已势在必行.     

亚洲安全与合作形势和中国外交

和平、发展、合作是亚洲形势发展的主流。美国加大在亚洲的军事投入、美日强化军事同盟以及朝核问题日益突出使亚洲局势复杂化。中国坚持以邻为伴、与邻为善和睦邻、安邻、富邻的基本外交理念和政策,在促进亚洲安全与合作的实践方面取得了积极的成效。     

能源安全与乌中经济合作

独立以来,乌兹别克斯坦与中国已经逐步建立起互利、互补的经济合作关系,但乌能源潜力和中国的投资潜力并未充分体现出来.未来双方经济合作的重点将是能源合作.乌应进一步扩大对中国的石油出口,与中方共同建立油气勘探开发合资企业,积极吸引中国企业参与乌能源企业私有化项目,与中方合作研发新能源和可再生能源.