菲律宾与印度尼西亚民主转型原因之异同——对《第三波》转型原因观点的验证

第三波民主化浪潮已进入民主巩固阶段,对过去转型的分析有助于对现阶段民主巩固问题的理解.地处东南亚地区的菲律宾与印度尼西亚提供了可资比较的民主转型经验,以亨廷顿<第三波--20世纪后期民主化浪潮>中关于民主转型原因--威权政体政绩与合法性下降、经济发展水平提高、宗教变化、外部因素直接影响和示范效应等五个因素分析为基础,菲律宾与印度尼西亚的比较可以得出结论:威权政体政绩与合法性下降这一因素可能是第三波民主化转型的普遍原因,而经济发展水平提高、宗教变化、外部因素直接影响和示范效应等四个因素可能只是适用范围较小的民主转型原因.     

试论东南亚庇护主义的形成与发展——以威权体制下的资本政治为视域

庇护主义在东南亚由来已久,传统的庇护主义渗入到威权体制的资本政治形态中,资本政治形态则赋予了庇护主义以新的内涵与发展.一方面这是由威权体制本身的性质所决定的,另一方面则是基于资本政治的建设.不同威权体制下资本政治的庇护主义模式存在差异性,如泰国是一种兼具合作与掠夺的混合型模式,而菲律宾则是私利取向的掠夺型模式.威权体制与资本政治形态的变迁动摇了庇护主义的存在基础,庇护主义的发展直接影响到威权体制的民主转型.     

从政治层面看印尼民主化改革艰难的原因

1998年5月苏哈托政权被推翻后印尼朝向民主政治转型.目前印尼正处在民主改革的阵痛期,民主化改革异常艰难.本文试图从政治层面来分析印尼民主化改革艰难的原因,即从总统和国会的关系、政党政治、旧势力、市民社会和腐败五个方面来对其进行论述.     

印尼民主转型和民主化软着陆

本文讨论1998年以来印尼民主转型的进程,分析了民主化的成果以及为此而付出的代价.文章接着考察了印尼民主化过程中出现的对强人权威政权的怀念,对大选结果中反映出来的强人政治回归的现象进行了分析.最后,作者对印尼能否突破"民主--专制--再民主--再专制"的怪圈,实现民主化的软着陆提出了自己的见解.     

双层博弈视角下菲律宾南海政策的变化研究(2010～2020)

2022年5月,菲律宾将迎来新一轮大选,杜特尔特也将卸任总统.而每次大选都是菲律宾南海政策变化的重要转折点.从2010年到2016年"南海仲裁案"后,菲律宾的南海政策,由阿基诺三世时期的追随美国与中国对抗,转向了杜特尔特政府与中国关系缓和,也开始由激进对抗转向合作姿态.但是,即使是表现出亲华倾向的杜特尔特政府仍旧存在着机会主义倾向.如何理解菲律宾政府南海政策前后变化的原因?借助双层博弈理论,文章通过对"仲裁案"前后5年的菲律宾南海政策进行分析发现,这既是菲律宾当权政府与国内反对派政治精英博弈,为了大选争取国内宗教势力、军队以及民众支持的选择,也是中美两国地区战略对菲律宾政府施加影响的结果.在该过程中,不同行为体都利用自己手中的博弈筹码,从而最终影响了菲律宾政府的南海政策走向.     

中东欧激进右翼和极右民粹主义的兴起——从社会文化遗产角度的分析

冷战结束和东欧转轨以来,中东欧政治发展的最终诉求,无论从中东欧国家申请入盟(EU)的举动,抑或是欧盟国家施加监督和管控基础之上的接纳来看,应当是自由民主制的建立和存续。但是在九十年代的"黄金岁月"之后,中东欧国家的民粹主义势力出现了明显的上升,尤其是曾经作为转型排头兵的维谢格拉德集团(匈牙利、捷克、斯洛伐克以及波兰),民粹主义不仅崛起而且执政,成功进行了所谓"逆民主化"操作。与此同时,激进右翼势力在中东欧的影响也日益增强。对于二者的兴起,历来有两大解释要素:经济因素和文化因素。学界对于二者的实际作用也各有分析,但是结合中东欧冷战后政治发展的实际,社会文化因素的解释力明显更为有效。本文力图分析和概括针对中东欧民粹主义和激进右翼势力兴起的西方主要研究视角,指出其贡献和不足,以及未来可能的进一步研究的方向。     

后苏哈托时代伊斯兰教与印尼政治民主化

1997年金融危机引发印尼的政治危机,统治印尼三十余年的苏哈托政权于1998年倒台,印尼进入政治民主化的新阶段.伊斯兰教势力也成为印尼政治中的重要角色,并在印尼政治民主化中发挥了积极的作用.     

文武关系与民主转型——印度尼西亚个案研究(1998—2014)

在20世纪末的金融危机中,印尼结束了苏哈托统治的"新秩序"时代,开启了"后苏哈托"时代的民主转型。1998至2014年,先后上台的哈比比、瓦希德、梅加瓦蒂和苏西洛相继对印尼进行了民主化改革。"后苏哈托"时代的印尼民主转型面临的重大问题之一就是如何进行文武关系改革,让这一支"政治的军队"变成"制度的军队"。本文以文武关系的变革为切入点,探寻"后苏哈托"时代的印尼民主转型历程,认为文武关系的变革不仅影响民主转型,民主转型也将影响对军队的民主控制。在实现对军队的文官控制的过程中,还必须加强文官控制的民主化程度。如果文官政府能够提供有效的民主治理,民主的规则和程序能够被广泛接受,暴力活动和政治斗争的程度较低,军队将很难返     

试论日本政党体制的转型

日本政党的"55年体制"于1993年崩溃后,现处在转型过程中.本文认为,促使转型产生的主要原因是原有体制的"制度疲劳"和自民党统合能力的下降.在选举制度的影响下,日本政党体制已出现新"一党优位"体制的端倪:政党同质化导致政界总保守化;自民党作为垄断资产阶级利益代表的性质日益明显;自民党与民主党相比,正表现出较强的自我革新能力和政策方向.     

2012年菲律宾政治、经济与外交形势回顾

2012年的菲律宾,国内政局总体而言比2011年平顺很多,尤其是菲政府与国内分裂势力之一的"摩伊解"的谈判取得了重大进展,双方就在南部建立"邦萨摩洛"达成框架协定,以取代现有的棉兰老岛穆斯林自治区,但政局动荡,稳定之路依然任重道远;经济比较繁荣,GDP年增长率达到6.6%,遥遥领先于东南亚其他国家;外交方面,菲律宾延续了过去联美、联日来抗中的路线。     

The Politics of Police Violence in Democratic Brazil

More than a decade after Latin America's most recent turn to democracy, unchecked police violence and torture continue and in some cases have increased. This study examines police killings in 19 Brazilian states from 1994 to 2001 and finds that democracy has not substantially reduced these types of human rights violations, for two reasons. First, underlying social conflict has continued to exert a significant impact on the lethal use of force by police officers. Second, pro-order political coalitions, generally represented by right-wing politicians, have blocked effective measures to control police violence and have implemented public safety measures that stress the use of force. The analysis emphasizes the nonteleological nature of democratization processes and demonstrates the strength of political forces working to maintain "illiberal democracy."     

ZANU(PF) strategies in general elections, 1980-2000: Discourse and coercion

For many analysts, the general election campaign in 2000 showeda new face of the ruling party, ZANU(PF). Against the new oppositionparty, the Movement for Democratic Change, ZANU(PF) engagedin violence and intimidation, often relying on youth and warveterans, even as it accused its opponents of subversive violence.Moreover, ZANU(PF) appealed to its liberation war credentials,while dismissing its chief opponents as puppets of British imperialismand reactionary white settlers. After the election, PresidentMugabe appealed for reconciliation between winners and losers,only to permit violence against those who had voted againstthe ruling party. For ruling party perpetrators of violence,there was impunity and later a presidential pardon. The purposeof this article is to demonstrate how the ruling party usedremarkably similar strategies in every general election since1980, notwithstanding striking differences in the contexts,issues, and nature of the chief opposition party. Given thiswell established pattern of ruling party violence and intimidationand characterization of opposition parties as illegitimate,the article seeks to understand why analysts repeatedly sawin the regular multiparty elections either a democratic systemor one that was amenable to democratization.     

Europeanization as a Democratization Tool? The Case of Morocco

This paper applies the Europeanization ‘toolkit’ to EU democratization policies in Morocco within the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) framework. To this aim, the bottom-up and top-down dimensions of EU?Morocco relations are analysed diachronically both before and after the Arab Spring. The analysis shows that the Moroccan ruling elite has used the anchor to the EU as a survival strategy and that the EU has merely responded to Moroccan political liberalization rather than having influenced it. Therefore, the paper debates the extent to which the very notion of Europeanization might be used with respect to democratization policies in Morocco, and it shows an overturning of the sender?receiver relationship proving that Europeanization has been used instrumentally rather than having any autonomous supportive effect on democratization.     

Regime Change and Conflict Recidivism within Rivalry: Interludes in Disputes

How does regime change affect the risk of militarized disputes? Within the democratic peace literature, there is disagreement over whether it is democratization, autocratization, political dissimilarity or political instability that is particularly perilous. I distinguish four perspectives from this literature and test their attendant hypotheses on a dataset of conflict episodes within enduring rivalry from 1816 to 2001 using survival analysis. I find that both democratization and autocratization reduce the hazard of dispute recurrence in enduring rivalries. After controlling for selection bias, the effect of democratization was robust whereas the effect of autocratization was not. Democratization also has the additional property of terminating rivalries; autocratization does not. Together, the results imply that democratization is better at promoting a transition from rivalry to peaceful relations than is the autocratization of a rivalry dyad.     

抗争的动力:新媒体与缅甸的民主化

自从2007年以来,缅甸社会政治发生了很大变化,其中新媒体起了很关键的作用。在2007年"藏红花"革命和2008年纳吉斯风灾中,缅甸人民利用互联网、移动电话等新媒体技术向世界传递了政府镇压和掩盖的真相。缅甸军人政府也明显感到了新媒体技术对其统治的压力,因此在2010年缅甸大选之前,严格控制国内的互联网。新媒体技术的出现虽然没有导致缅甸社会权力结构发生实质性的变化,但是新媒体技术打破了原来军政府对信息的封锁,逐渐促进了缅甸的民主化进程。     

日本新宗教团体创价学会与公明党之政教关系

日本新宗教团体创价学会继承日莲正宗"立正安国"的政教合一理念,从20世纪50年代开始,在二战后民主法治环境中积极开展政治活动,于1964年成立公明党。创价学会与公明党之间的关系经历了四个时期:教团主导政教合一时期(1964-1969)、政教分离时期(1970-90年代初)、教团成为政党斗争工具时期(20世纪90年代)、政党保守化与教团集权化时期(2000年至今)。二者关系的变化说明从战后民主化到政治、宗教多元化的今天,宗教势力依然对日本政坛有深远的影响,同时政党的本质属性决定宗教政党必须以夺取政权为最高目标,在复杂多变的现实政治斗争中,宗教政党的政治主张往往与宗教理念发生冲突,形成对其母体教团的反噬效果。     

Réformes électorales et changements institutionnels dans un contexte de démocratisation. Le choix du scrutin uninominal sous la Troisième République en France

The article focus on the choice of the single member district voting system under the Third Republic based on an analysis of the parliamentary debates about three electoral laws (1875, 1889 and 1927). The aim is to study the interaction between the electoral interests of political actors, the stakes of democratization and the evolution of the political regime. We use the researches on democratization and electoral studies to question the consideration of context as a variable of analysis in electoral reforms. We demonstrate that the presence and the interweaving of the determinants of electoral reform depend on the context, which is preponderant in explaining the electoral system choice.     

民主化和区域主义相关性研究:东盟的地区实践

民主化的实践对于东南亚区域主义产生了深远影响。随着东南亚地区合作的不断推进,政治转型成为该地区当下所面临的重要议题。本文拟结合民主化与区域主义两者关系的分析,探索传统上以精英为主导的区域主义正在经历的深刻嬗变。研究表明,民主化对于东南亚区域主义发展范式的影响是复杂的,以公民社会为主要载体的参与式区域主义方兴未艾,两种类型的区域主义勾画了东盟地区治理的图景。     

伊斯兰教与马来西亚政治民主化

马来西亚是伊斯兰国家,其政治发展与种族关系和伊斯兰教息息相关,在政治民主化进程中,种族政治和宗教政治都发挥了重要作用.本文主要通过安瓦尔事件以及伊斯兰党的理念和实践研究伊斯兰教在马来西亚政治民主化中的作用,进而探讨伊斯兰原教旨主义与政治民主化的关系,探讨伊斯兰教能否推动伊斯兰国家的民主化进程.     

Toward the center: Implications of integration and democratization for Taiwan’s mainland policy

Two fundamental changes have taken place in Taiwan in recent years. One is its economic integration with the Chinese mainland and the other is political democratization in the island. Whereas the economic integration has led to the development of a new structure of interests favoring current relations between Taiwan and the mainland, the political democratization process has discouraged radical voices of the political extremes. These two developments have reduced Taipei’s choices on its mainland policy. While undermining such extreme positions as reunification or independence, they have increasingly favored more moderate policy options in between.