U.S.＇ Middle East Policy

After the 9/11 incident, the United States further shifted its strategic focus on the Middle East. This article analyzes the strategic dilemma faced by the U.S. in the Middle East and the origins of its Middle East strategy. It uses an historical perspective by comparing former strategies with current policy.     

美国中东政策的战略支点——土耳其

土耳其是中东地区大国,地跨欧、亚两大洲,连接黑海和地申海,也是多种文明的交汇地,无论在冷战还是后冷战时期都有十分重要的地缘政治意义。二战后美国与土耳其关系发展很快,土耳其成为美国在中东地区实施扩张势力范围和遏制苏联政策的重要“战略支点”之一。美国中东战略中许多重要举措都是通过土耳其这个“支点”展开的。土耳其与美国等西方国家的关系并非只有融合、亲密的一面,还有不断产生矛盾、出现一些“不和谐声音”的另一面。新世纪土耳其调整外交战略“向东看”,但依然是美国中东政策的战略支点之一,并能“东西逢源”,无疑将在中东地区发挥更大作用。     

奥巴马治下美国“大中东”政策前瞻

奥巴马治下的美国对外政策的重点仍将是“大中东”。从伊拉克撤军,与伊拉克在政治、经济和安全关系协议方面作出规划,以解决美国在伊拉克长期利益和军事存在;可能与伊拉克进行谈判．但难度很大;中东和平进程有可能取得进展;阿富汗和巴基斯坦将成为美国的反恐重点地区;中国因素会受到越来越多的关注。     

New Complexities in the Middle East since 9.11

The Middle East has been a hot spot in international politics since the mid-20th century owing to its special geostrategic position and its abundant resources of oil and natural gas. These contributes have made it an area of contention for any state with a global overview. During the Cold War,the sharp differences between two superpowers,the U.S. and the Soviet Union,could have brought the situation to the brink of a third world war. After the Cold War,the U.S. became the dominant power in the Middle East. ...     

Pivot but Hedge: A Strategy for Pivoting to Asia While Hedging in the Middle East

The U.S. government's new emphasis on the Asia-Pacific represents a bold strategic choice that could animate U.S. national security policy for years to come. Yet the United States must balance its rightful new focus on the Asia-Pacific with the volatility that still exists in other areas of the world. The United States should pivot to the Asia-Pacific—but to protect its vital interests, it should also hedge against threats elsewhere, particularly in the greater Middle East. To implement a “Pivot but Hedge” strategy, the U.S. government should do three things. First, it should exercise caution when cutting the defense budget. Second, it should give the military services greater leadership roles in specific regions: naval and air forces should lead in the Asia-Pacific, while ground forces should lead in the greater Middle East. Third, it should maintain expansible, capable, and well-trained ground forces as a hedge against global uncertainty.     

失去的十年：美国中东战略失败的理论探讨

十年前的“9·11”事件极大地改变了美国国际关系理论的走向,以“文明冲突论”为外交政策的理论指导,推行“武力反恐”和“民主改造”政策,引发伊斯兰世界反美情绪高涨。美国与伊斯兰世界的矛盾原本是二战后美国主导的世界经济秩序造成南北贫富悬殊的政治经济矛盾,而美国新保守主义却从唯心主义的思维方式出发,过高估计自身力量推行“大中东民主”,使得美在冷战后本有可能进一步巩固中东地位变得影响力大不如前。奥巴马上台后,虽然明确放弃布什时期“文明冲突”理念,努力缓解伊斯兰的反美情绪,但已很难超越中东已有的现实,十年错误路线导致的“外交后遗症”不是“灵巧外交”短期内所能挽救的。     

New Policies and Old Realities in the Middle East

Shortly after Barack Obama's victory in November 2008, the author addressed the “old realities” of U.S. interests and challenges in the Middle East, as well as the “new policies” the president-elect may choose to establish in this “perpetually troubled region.”This article is a slightly revised version of a lecture given on December 11, 2008, as part of FPRI's Robert A. Fox Lectures on the Middle East. It appeared as an FPRI E-Note in January 2009.     

美国的中东石油战略与中国能源安全

对于中国和美国这两个石油进口与消费大国来说,有世界油库之称的中东的战略地位不言而喻,但美国的中东石油战略实质上是一种霸权战略。美国这种霸权稳定论下的石油安全观及其中东石油战略,不仅排斥和谐世界理念下的中国和平发展石油安全观,而且成为引发或激发中东政治与石油形势动荡的深层根源之一。美国对中东石油霸权战略的实施和推进,对中国以商业原则与和平方式安全而稳定地获取中东石油形成了严重的制约和挑战。     

Business as Usual

In the years since 9/11, there is no doubt that the emphasis of U.S. global strategy has been on counter-terrorism and the war in Iraq. During this period of time, the U.S. investment in strategic, political and military resources in the Middle East, Iraq, and the war on terror, which are the top priorities on the list of Bush＇s foreign policy, has been far greater than in any other fields. However, there are some in the U.S. who believe that China＇s rise has been much ignored by the U.S., due to the global war on terror （GWOT）, and that America should, in fact, be focusing more on China, not the Middle East. However, as we see it, China has by no means been ignored by the U.S., neither has China＇s rise been the result of U.S. ignorance.     

2011年美国外交面临的挑战

2011年国际局势中的许多事态对美国的中东外交政策形成新的挑战。西亚北非的动荡和变局可能导致中东地缘政治版图重新绘制,对美国未来的中东外交必将带来许多变数;美国一巴基斯坦之间发生的事态可能对奥巴马政府的反恐战略及南亚战略提出新的挑战;巴勒斯坦不顾美国阻挠申请加入联合国,使美国与穆斯林世界的关系面临新的考验。这些挑战今后有可能进一步发酵,对美国全球战略产生影响,其中包括对奥巴马政府＂-3前高调进行的“重返亚洲”形成牵制。     

开辟中国与中东国家关系新天地的三十年

在新时期,发展中国与中东国家①的关系出现了历史性机遇.中国改革开放以后,完成了与中东国家全面建交的历史进程.中国奉行独立自主的和平外交政策,赢得中东国家的信任.中国关注中东地区热点,积极发挥建设性的作用.中国与中东国家合作实现了制度化与机制化,经济贸易关系大发展,文化、教育、科技交往日益热络,中国对中东的学术研究日益深入.改革开放30年来,中国与中东国家关系的发展实现了历史性跨越,开辟了双方关系发展的广阔新天地.     

奥巴马政府的综合性和平理念与中东和平进程

为改变中东局势恶化和美国在阿拉伯国家受损形象,奥巴马提出"综合性和平"的构想和政策,即:推动巴勒斯坦建国,敦促巴、以履行和平路线图职责,改善美国同叙利亚和黎巴嫩的关系,说服沙特等中东其他国家共同参与,以实现中东永久和平。然而,巴以矛盾能否调和,阿拉伯国家能否重树对美国的信任和信心,政策构想能否得到以色列和美国内犹太人财团的认知以及伊斯兰激进派的认可,都有待观察。     

The Middle East: Learning from the Past

The effort to bring peace to the Middle East has been an almost century long process. Legions of soldiers, politicians, and diplomats have attempted the political equivalent of transmuting dross into gold. They have failed; none more comprehensively than President Bill Clinton and his Middle East interlocutors. Despite personal energy, intelligence, and creativity, U.S. efforts failed. After a stretch of benign/malign neglect, Washington again is venturing into the swamp by sponsoring renewed Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. There are learnable lessons from what has been (mis)managed in the past. The question remains whether the United States will take counsel from them.     

U.S. Strategy in a Transitioning Middle East: Reviving ‘State Responsibility’

In light of the uncertainty surrounding the Middle East stemming from the Arab Awakening, and the inability of Washington to shape the process of transition, U.S. decision- makers must rethink their strategy for the region in general and for counterterrorism in particular. Reducing U.S. involvement in the region and letting the dust settle will serve American interests better and allow for building healthier relations with Middle Eastern countries. At the same time, since the risk of negative effects on neighboring states that accompany transition must be kept in check, the United States, together with other powers, should lead the international community in reviving the principle of “state responsibility” as a productive way to reduce spillover of conflicts and even provide incentives for actors in the region to limit violence.     

Israel and the Emerging Strategic Architecture in the Middle East

The Middle East has undergone significant changes in the past two decades. Most significantly, the region has experienced the dissolution of the post-1991 America-centric regional security complex as the United States reduces its forces and retools its center of effort toward the Indo-Pacific, and the creation of a new gas-centered sub-regional security complex in the Eastern Mediterranean. These changes have impacted Israel’s stature in its region and have led to significant changes in Israel’s foreign and national security policy. While in the past, Israel viewed itself as a “villa in the jungle”—not as an integral part of the region—it now sees itself as part of its surroundings and is pursuing a much more regional-centric policy. This change is clear in issue-specific alliances and collective security arrangements, as well as in long-range economic relationships. This article analyzes the regional changes and their impact in Israeli strategic thinking and policy.     

对当前中东局势演变的若干思考

当前中东局势动荡其实是中东国家迫切需要的政治和社会转型的一部分,对地区国家的政治改革和社会进步具有明显的推动作用,但阿拉伯世界作为整体被再次分化和削弱。旧的秩序被打破后,阿拉伯世界的传统意识形态面临新的时代挑战。西方试图将中东变革引入所谓民主化轨道,未来中东地区有可能形成多元政治架构,但其过程漫长,且中东各国政治进程的发展难以摆脱本地区历史、宗教、文化和社会现实的影响。我们应将美国西方的介入置于当前国际体系加速转型,世界政治、经济权势向非西方国家转移的大背景下加以观察。中东动荡短期内会分散美国关注重点,但不会改变其从中东总体收缩的态势,更不会动摇其战略东移步伐。     

从中东变局透视国际秩序的演变

中东动荡不仅是该地区国家政治和社会发展历史进程的一部分,而且还深刻反映了国际秩序的调整与变化。冷战结束以来,国际环境的迅速变化以及世界政治经济权势的快速转移是诱发中东变局的重要原因之一。从时机上看,美国中东战略的收缩,为中东变革运动的兴起提供了可能;从发展上看,全球化的深入发展,拉大了中东与世界其他地区的差距;从理念和制度建设上看,改革创新的时代精神对缺乏机制和制度创新动力和能力的中东国家形成了巨大冲击。而正在转变中的国际秩序以及世界权力结构的变化趋势,也必将对未来中东地区秩序重构及各国政治及社会转型产生重要影响。     

从“重返”到“再平衡”——奥巴马政府第二任期的东南亚政策

美国总统奥巴马2009年上台后,对东南亚表现出浓厚的兴趣并高调"重返",推出了一系列加强在东南亚存在的举措。2013年连任后,他将在未来4年继续把东南亚作为"亚太再平衡"战略的着力点。同时,奥巴马政府意识到其东南亚政策也需要进行"再平衡",应放缓军事"重返"脚步,在经济、政治、安全等领域全方位投入,均衡化、长期化地推进东南亚外交。国内财政限制、中东等地区外交挑战和外交人员人事变动等因素会对美国新一届政府的东南亚外交有所制约,但其未来政策走向仍将对中国周边外交和中美关系产生持续影响。     

Multipolarity and instability in the Middle East

Tensions have long been a feature of the international relations of the Middle East. After the 2011 Arab uprisings, regional instability is being driven by a confluence of three interrelated developments. First, the weakening role of the United States as a power balancer in the Middle East, combined with the larger global context, has provided assumptions about threats and new opportunities for local and other actors to pursue strategic and foreign policy objectives that have deepened tensions and regional competition. Second, there has been a juxtaposing of power multipolarity with ideological multipolarity, itself a source of increased instability, with two of the regional powers, Iran and Saudi Arabia, fanning opposing sectarian flames to further their respective strategic objectives. Third, this strategic competition is being played out in several newly weakened or collapsing states such as Libya, Syria, and Yemen. Similarly, the regional powers’ competition in previously weakened states, such as Lebanon and Iraq, has intensified due to the acquisition of new, sectarian dimensions. These developments are likely to perpetuate instability and tensions in the Middle East for the foreseeable future.

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美国与东亚经济失衡及东亚区域合作构想

美国与东亚经济失衡与摩擦对东亚区域经济一体化的影响巨大而复杂。一方面,为应对与美国的经济摩擦,东亚先进经济体往往通过对外直接投资将国内失去比较优势的产业转移到区内后进经济体,将其作为自己的出口平台,从而促进东亚地区产业分工与国际生产网络等经济一体化的形成;另一方面,作为东亚区域经济一体化进程中最重要的外部因素,美国对东亚经济一体化的立场、东亚对美国市场和美国货币的非对称依赖都在一定程度上限制了东亚地区一体化的发展。