Budget Deficits and Coalition Governments

This paper shows that compromise between different ideologicalmotivations within multiparty governments may result in a biastoward running budget deficits even if all parties in thecoalition prefer balanced budgets. The deficit bias increases withthe degree of ``polarization'' of the ideological motivations andgenerally decreases with the degree of concentration of powerwithin the government. Although the analysis is conducted assuminga proportional representation electoral system, the results willalso apply to majoritarian systems if the winning party comprisesideologically different constituencies. The relationship betweenbudget deficits and multiparty governments is investigated usingdata from a sample of eight European Union countries for the period1971–1990. Analysis on pooled data is partly in line with the theory.Time series within country analysis is less favorable: we findclear support to the theory only in the case of Italy.     

历史视野中的美国经济"双赤字"问题

多年来,美国经济发展中的一个重要特征是存在着高额的财政赤字和经常项目赤字.双高赤字起自上世纪80年代里根政府时期,可以说是"里根经济学"为取得成功所付出的代价.90年代的克林顿政府所采取的削减联邦财政赤字为主要内容的宏观经济政策获得了成功,而美国经济的持续繁荣则继续导致了美国贸易赤字的增长.小布什政府上台次年重新出现财政赤字,其后双赤字不断攀升,创下了历史最高记录.布什政府推行的减税计划造成政府税收下降和9.11事件以后美国政府开支的大幅度增加是联邦财政重现赤字的主要原因;美国贸易赤字居高难下并不断增加,从根本上说则是美国经济中消费和支出远远大于其产出的结果.双赤字对美国经济有利有弊,但归根到底弊大于利,同时也给世界经济增长蒙上了阴影,带来了诸多不确定因素.美国的双高赤字形势虽然可能会有所改观,但作为一种总体的状况恐会长期存在下去.     

Structural Deficits and State Borrowing Costs

This study examines the factors that affect the borrowing costs of state governments with specific attention being paid to the impact of state structural deficits (or fiscal imbalances) on borrowing costs. The findings for 1999–2000 suggest that interest costs for state competitively sold municipal securities reflect estimates of state structural deficits. States with a higher structural deficit were found to pay significantly higher interest costs. The evidence implies that bond ratings do not fully reflect the fiscal problems faced by state governments.     

西部大开发中小城镇建设的政府管理

小城镇建设是西部开发建设中基础设施的基础,是西部经济、社会发展的载体.西部地区发展落后于东部地区,其中一个重要原因就是城镇建设大大滞后.为了加速西部发展的步伐,必须加大小城镇建设和管理力度,小城镇的管理是政府的基本职能.政府只有加大对小城镇的科学管理,才能更好地发挥小城镇在西部开发中的作用.     

Federal Deficits, Debt and Interest Costs

Current federal government deficits are of a size unprecedented since World War II. While budget surpluses have been infrequent, deficits before 1982 were small enough that the federal debt shrunk in relation to the size of the economy. Now, however, the federal deficit is stuck at about 5 percent of gross national product, and the ratio of federal debt to gross national product (GNP) is growing rapidly. These large deficits are driving up interest rates, hurting American exports, turning the United States into a debtor nation, and causing government interest outlays to spiral. The possibilities are limited for lowering interest costs through directly reducing interest rates or introducing new Treasury debt management strategies. The only way to cage the interest monster is to enact a substantial package of tax increases and cuts in noninterest spending. We list some possible elements of such a package and show how they might be combined to tame the growth of debt.     

Myth and American politics

Accumulating tensions call into question the sustainability of the American political system, which ultimately depends on public faith in the justifying myth. This article takes sustainability as a policy problem, and attempts to reconstruct the significance of recent, scattered events in American politics from the standpoint of central theory in the policy sciences. The resulting construct emphasizes the significance of intellectuals in the decision processes of modern society and the continuing task of the policy sciences.     

Coalition politics and accountability

The paper introduces the possibility of coalition government into the theoretical study of political accountability and analyzes the accountability of coalitions as a problem of team production. It is shown that coalition governments can be held accountable in the presence of an electoral alternative. Accountability becomes problematic if it is certain that at least one of the coalition parties stays in power after the elections. Such a coalition (sometimes called a ‘unity government’) can not be given appropriate collective incentives. To incentivate government performance, voters make one coalition party responsible for the outcome. This, however, makes the other coalition party interested in sabotage. The paper analyzes the resulting conflict and characterizes optimal voter strategy.     

Structural violence and politics

Abstract

In Red Tape, I do not use the term “arbitrary” in opposition to “systematic”, as is alleged by Harriss and Jeffrey. Arbitrariness accompanies systematic forms of discrimination, and is the result of both, the indifference to outcomes and to the chaotic style of functioning of Indian bureaucracies. Interpreting structural violence, or explaining injustice, requires understanding what the state means to different people. The chief argument that poverty is a form of violence, and represents the killing of the poor, underlines the injustice that results from treating poverty as a biopolitical fact. I employ a notion of politics that is not restricted to parties and mobilization, but which saturates all relations of inequality. Despite voicing dissatisfaction with the analysis presented in Red Tape, Harriss and Jeffrey fail to forward an adequate and coherent alternative.     

Evolutionary psychology and politics

Like its predecessor sociobiology, evolutionary psychology has distanced itself from political discourse. In so far as evolutionary psychology can contribute towards an understanding of politics, it claims to do so only as a potential explanation for political behaviour. However, I argue that evolutionary psychology - like sociobiology - is itself a political phenomenon. It proceeds from a conception of the political - drawn from the Hobbesian social contract tradition - which crucially informs its theoretical trajectory. A recognition of the political character of evolutionary psychology, in this respect, should be the starting point of its critique.     

Deficits and Devolution in the 104th Congress

Deficit reduction was an important impetus for the devolutioninitiatives thai moved through the 104th Congress, but it wasnot the only cause. Other objectives, notably building an alliancewith Republican governors and transforming the American welfarestate, also helped to drive devolution. Although the Republicandeficit and devolution agendas appeared mutually reinforcingat first, arguments over the terms of devolution (e.g., entitlementstatus, program mandates, and funding formulas) helped to slowdown and build opposition to those agendas. The use of omnibuslegislation helped to gel Republican proposals through the Congressin 1995, but packaging together popular and highly unpopularprovisions in a single bill ultimately provided President BillClinton with political cover to veto the legislation. The unpopularityof Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and Clinton'spledge to "end welfare as we know it" propelled a more limiteddevolution agenda focused on AFDC in the lead-up to the 1996presidential election. Devolution ofMedicaid was dropped, however,while Food Stamps and child nutrition programs experienced budgetcuts but little devolution.     

Electoral reform and British politics

Electoral systems are chosen by politicians not on the basis of their abstract merits or demerits, but as a result of essentially political considerations. Because the British party system is now in flux, electoral reform has become a live issue in British politics. The outcome of the debate will depend upon the future distribution of political power, and realignment is likely to prove a much less smooth process than it was in the 1920s.