黎巴嫩投资市场分析

黎巴嫩共和国 (简称"黎巴嫩")位于亚洲西南部、地中海东岸,北部和东部邻叙利亚,南界以色列,西濒地中海.海岸线长220公里,全境长约193公里,平均宽约56公里,国土面积10 452平方公里.全国人口约393万(2007年)①,以阿拉伯民族为主体.54%的居民信奉伊斯兰教,主要是什叶派、逊尼派和德鲁兹派;46%的居民信奉基督教,主要有马龙派、希腊东正教、罗马天主教和亚美尼亚东正教等.     

黎巴嫩局势演变及影响

黎巴嫩处于中东敏感地带,长期动荡,国内问题历来与地区主要矛盾相交织.叙利亚撤军后,黎局势发生较大变化,美国强化了介入,并将此作为最终更迭伊朗和叙利亚政权全盘计划的组成部分.伊叙不甘坐以待毙,对美采取一系列牵制措施,以维持政权生存.黎已经成为伊叙与美较量的舞台之一.     

Health,work opportunities and attitudes: a review of Palestinian women's situation in Lebanon

This study examined the health status, employment opportunities, and aspirations of Palestinian women refugees in Lebanon. Data were obtained from 1501 women registered with a UN relief agency and living in 5 regions; 80% lived in camps. 27.6% were aged 20-34 years, 27.1% were aged 35-44 years, and 24.7% were aged 45-60 years. 92% were women with children. About 43% of the 988 women with children had used or currently used contraception. 63% of these women had over 4 children. Among the 24 teenagers, 6 were current users; 41.7% had a child under the age of 16 years, and 62.5% had more than 1 child. Only 25% of all respondents had fewer than 3 children. Short birth intervals were common. About 16.4% of respondents were working. About 25% of mothers and 17% of all respondents never attended school. Tradition, marriage, and financial constraints were reported as reasons for education deficits. A very high rate of women miscarried. 5% had abortions. Mothers reported self-fulfillment reasons for high fertility. Health status included high and early fertility, short birth intervals, frequent miscarriages, lack or misuse of birth control, high child mortality, and lack of knowledge about women's health. Women's work, albeit very limited, was essential to the household. Employed women were older, household heads, and with multiple burdens. Women had aspirations for themselves and their children for education, work, a return to peace, and a home in Palestine. Attainment fell short of aspirations, mostly due to lack of support within the family and the school system, and tradition. Many young women with aspirations had low expectations of success.     

Islamism in the Diaspora: Palestinian Refugees in Lebanon

In recent years there has been increasing academic interestin Islamism in the Middle East, not least in Palestinian Islamismchampioned by groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, whichare waging a war of attrition against the Israeli occupationof the West Bank and Gaza. There has been less concern withIslamism among the Palestinian refugees dispersed in MiddleEastern countries such as Syria, Jordan and Lebanon. The articleoutlines the sources of Islamism (‘political Islam’)among Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. The rise of Islamismis a complex mix of contingent factors that is fuelled by socialand political deprivation and shaped by divergent views on Palestiniannationalism (secular vs. Islamist), the Islamist revival inLebanon and ‘strategic localization’ that turnsrefugee camps into battlefields between Palestinian factions.The Islamist groups cater for narrowly defined segments of therefugee population and have been unable to attract wider support.Instead, they cater for minor, camp-based constituencies whichcompete with secular groups for internal control of the campsand, by implication, of the Palestinian nationalist cause itself.     

有限战争理论与以色列在黎巴嫩的军事行动

有限战争在战略目标、战略手段、打击对象和打击范围的选择方面受主观克制和客观限制的双重影响。有限战争是安全战略的重要选项,其能否上升为决策者的首选,主要取决于以下5个因素,即外来威胁的强度、国内支持度、盟友支持度、国际舆论支持度和敌我力量对比悬殊程度。这些因素同样是2006年7月起以色列对黎巴嫩真主党游击队发动有限战争的内在逻辑。     

Widening the Protection Gap: The 'Politics of Citizenship' for Palestinian Refugees in Lebanon, 1948-2008

Lebanon has been a reluctant host to Palestinian refugees since1948. A mainstay of Lebanese policies vis-à-vis the Palestinianrefugees has been preventing their permanent integration andsettlement in the country. The question of naturalizing refugeesis one of the most contentious political issues in Lebanon today.Palestinian refugees tend to live in conflict-ridden environments,often at the margins of the host society. This first of allapplies to the camp-based refugees, who languish in dilapidatedand overcrowded camps. Unable to return to Palestine and marginalizedby the host society, they are caught in a legal limbo. In orderto understand the complex legal regime that governs their refugeestatus, it is necessary to examine their rights as refugeesin international law, regionally as hosted by Arab League statesand nationally as residents of Lebanon. The rights regime iscomplex and contributes to a critical ‘protection gap’for the refugees. This article demonstrates how this protectiongap was created and widened by historically contingent, international,regional and national legal rights regimes.     

水在以对黎政策中的地位和作用

水在中东是一种战略资源,对以色列更是如此,它始终影响着以色列的对外政策。以色列水资源匮乏,而黎巴嫩水资源相对丰富,且水战略位置重要。为了得到以利塔尼河水为主的黎巴嫩南部水资源,以色列谋求修改边界,且不惜采取军事行动。以色列虽然为自己的行动辩解,但终究难以自圆其说。虽迫于国内外压力撤出了黎巴嫩南部,但只要水形势得不到改善,只要约旦河源头没有安全保障,以色列再次侵入黎巴嫩南部甚至重新占领之并非不可能。     

2006年黎巴嫩战争和中东局势新发展

2006年7月爆发的黎巴嫩战争,是美以蓄谋已久、由以色列发动、以色列投入最大规模兵力、以色列建国以来经历激战时间最长的战争。其根源在于美国布什政府的全球战略目标和美国"大中东战略"。这场战争反映出中东更加错综复杂的矛盾。黎巴嫩战争连同伊拉克战争已经并将进一步对中东局势发展产生深刻的影响,同时促使世界多极化进一步发展。当前,美国面临的种种矛盾异常突出,难以阻遏其不断衰败的趋势。人们在看到当今世界总体发展趋势的同时,也应充分估计到发展过程中的严峻挑战,必将经历尖锐反复斗争、激烈分化组合与曲折起伏的较长期的过程。