China's nuclear arms development and arms transfers to the Third World

China's increasing military expenditures are often cited as a main cause of concern for China's neighbors. The fact that China's military buildup has not been limited to conventional forces — it has been developing a nuclear arsenal since the early 1970s —exponentially increases the unease felt by other nations in East Asia. Shigeo Hiramatsu, professor of China Studies at Kyorin University, here explores China's advancing nuclear arms program and the issue of arms transfers to the Third World.     

Bringing Realism Back In: Explaining China's Strategic Behavior in the Asia-Pacific

This article argues that offensive realism is applicable to explain China's strategic behavior. Contrary to constructivist and liberal arguments, ideational and domestic factors are not the primary causes of China's strategic behavior. Instead, structural and material factors such as anarchy and the distribution of relative power significantly shape how China behaves in the Asia-Pacific. Furthermore, they have a larger impact relative to non-material/unit-level variables on China's policymaking. Available evidence strongly indicates that China's strategic behavior is driven by power maximizing calculation. China's grand strategy, its maritime ambition as well as naval modernization, and rapid growth rate of military expenditure all confirm the hypotheses of offensive realism.     

An “Assertive” China? Insights from Interviews

Abstract

Recent years have witnessed the emergence of a more assertive China. What happened to China's “peaceful rise” and “charm offensive”? What explains the changes in China's foreign policy? According to interviews with Beijing and Shanghai-based analysts, China's assertiveness between 2008 and 2010 can be divided into two waves, each triggered by a different cause. The first wave seems triggered by a sense in Beijing that Washington, DC was more differential to China's interests, and less committed to East Asia. The second wave seems best explained as China's response to what it perceived as a far more assertive and threatening United States. Both waves were amplified by two domestic challenges: Chinese leaders’ hypersensitivity to popular nationalism and poor bureaucratic coordination among an expanding number of foreign policy actors.     

“Making the Crooked Straight”: China's Grand Strategy of “Peaceful Rise” and its Central Asian Dimension

Abstract

This article argues that China's foreign policy since 1991 has been guided by the evolution of a grand strategy of “peaceful rise” that seeks to ensure China's smooth transition to great power status. Moreover, it suggests that a strategic preoccupation with Central Asia has become an important expression of this grand strategy. Framing these arguments is a third overarching one that postulates that China's foreign policy in Central Asia is not only intimately related to the strategy of “peaceful rise” but also to a particular, historically and geopolitically informed narrative of China's “Inner Asian” power.     

The rise of China: Threats,uncertainties, and opportunities

The attraction of China's enormous market is lending strength to its position in international negotiations, and China's high rate of economic development is serving to reinforce the legitimacy of its political system. But China's increasing defense expenditures, made possible by such economic growth, are heightening tension among neighboring countries who perceive China as a threat. Kiichi Saeki examines these positive and negative implications of China's rapid economic growth. Saeki is concurrently executive advisor to IIPS and vice president of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Britain. He was formerly the president and chairman of Nomura Research Institute and president of the Defense College.     

China-ASEAN Economic Co-operation and the Role of Provinces

This article attempts to study the rationales and strategies of China's involvement in sub-regional economic co-operation projects with the countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), using the Greater Mekong Basin Sub-region and the Pan-Beibu Gulf Area as examples. It analyses China's diplomatic and economic motivations, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of this involvement. It also examines China's involvement at the provincial level and, in particular, the motivations, strategies, strengths and limitations on the part of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in its participation in the Pan-Beibu Gulf Area project. China considers that its involvement facilitates its articulation of its interests, enhancement of its influence and promotion of multipolarity. Further, it would allow China to maintain a relatively low profile while seeking leadership and reducing external pressures. There are also the considerations of reducing China's aid commitments and accelerating the development of China's central and western provinces.     

The Shanghai Co-operation Organisation: China's Initiative in Regional Institutional Building

China's initiative in establishing and promoting the development of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) is an interesting case study of China's attempt at regional institution building. China's increasing interest in Central Asia coincided with its gradual acceptance and rising enthusiasm regarding participation in regional organisations. The “Shanghai Five” mechanism and the SCO were seen as appropriate mechanisms for pursuing China's multiple interests in the region; their development was also in line with the improvement in Sino-Russian relations. Chinese leaders have skilfully developed the SCO's institutional framework, and they seem intent on getting good value for the resources spent. The leaders have also demonstrated considerable patience when the SCO's development encountered setbacks.     

Chinese eyes on Africa: Authoritarian flexibility versus democratic governance

This article seeks to shed more light on the consequences of China's aid to and trade with African states. It attempts to answer two questions: First, does China's ‘no-strings-attached’ policy in Africa constitute a challenge to Western aid paradigms? Second, is there as an emerging state-sponsored Chinese model of ‘effective governance’, guided by a south-south vision of mutuality, equality and reciprocity at work? It is argued that China's Africa watchers are cautious, not wanting to project any false hopes into bilateral relationships with African countries. In the light of China's reform experience, these analysts propose that indigenous contexts should determine what developmental model to choose. China is unwilling to force its experiences of ‘a market economy with Chinese characteristics’ upon other nations. The article concludes by arguing that, although not unproblematic, there is reason to be positive about China's higher profile in Africa.     

Imperialism and incorporation—the case of Chinese Silk

Abstract

In the last decade, studies of the silk industry and trade have been at the center of the continuing debate over China's development in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Although silk, like the other case studies, has limitations for unveiling the overall picture of China's “underdevelopment,” the silk industry, as Lillian Li and other writers point out, provides a particularly valuable vantage point for exploring the debate because: (1) silk was China's most important export, accounting for one-third of total export value in the mid—nineteenth century and one-fifth in the early twentieth century; (2) China's silk industry was centered in the two regions around Canton and Shanghai that were the most important centers of imperialist penetration; (3) silk exports provide a case for comparison with Japan, since Japan and China were the two leading exporters of raw silk in the world market in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The most critical point, I sense, is the fact that Japan's silk industry was the major, indeed the only, competitor for China's silk industry. And Japan also happened to be the most important imperialist power that Chinese scholars have pointed to in explaining the failure of China's silk industry. Therefore I would stress their relations as well as comparisons of their performance.     

China's Discourse on Regionalism: What it Means for India

China's approach towards regionalism and multilateralism is essentially driven by realpolitik paradigm. More specifically, China's tilt towards regionalism has been propelled by three reasons: one its own rise, two its domestic concerns and three change in the world-order in the aftermath of the collapse of bipolarism and the resultant emergence of new threats and insecurities. Regionalism in Chinese discourse is rooted primarily in the quest for building a China-led regional order, supporting China's peripheral diplomacy and grand strategy, than on mere rationale of economic gains. Therefore, in Chinese conceptualization realpolitik issues hold primacy over normative and liberal notions of interdependence. The web of regional security architecture, thus, evolved serves essentially China's security needs and grand strategy.     

Turkish racial theories

Mainstream media have reported on ‘China in Uncle Sam's Backyard’ - Latin America - with considerable alarm in recent years. But is such alarm justified? This article aspires to lift the fog on China's engagement with Latin America. The article finds that mutual concerns over economic development, not military advantage, are the driving force behind closer Sino-Latin American relations. Nonetheless, it is indisputable that China's presence in the Southern Hemisphere impacts the region's geopolitical dynamics, with possible consequences for the US security position. That said, China's arrival in Latin America also harbours a positive strategic opportunity for Washington to re-engage, on a more equal footing, with a continent whose relations with the US have been historically troubled, and more recently, have suffered from a certain neglect.     

Toward China's “Hub and Spokes” in Southeast Asia? – Diplomacy during the Hu Jintao and First Xi Jinping Administrations

This article reviews China's diplomacy toward Southeast Asia and ASEAN chronologically from the 1990s to 2015, focusing on the changes that occurred during the second half of the Hu Jintao Administration and the further policy adjustments made during the first Xi Jinping Administration. While there are still many uncertainties regarding the policies, and many aspects are still in progress, this study provides an outline of the current period of change in China's relations with Southeast Asia and China's more active engagement in relations with ASEAN from the late 1990s through the early 21st century.     

The triple black burden: Race,knowledge production and South Africa's international affairs

China's relationship with Africa is viewed as strategic and complementary by both regions, politically and economically. The article analyses the relationship within the framework of China's official policy, looking at what both sides stand to gain.     

Annual Index 2002

China's rural land rights regime is being reformed. Most explanations for the reforms focus on the efficiency effects anticipated from the strengthening of villagers' land rights. In contrast, this article argues that rural land rights reforms are intended to resolve the intra-state and state-society contention generated by China's market transition and globalization, and to mediate villagers' dispossession of their land and their transformation into a proletariat.     

Constitution of Democratic Kampuchea

Given China's record of suppressing freedoms and brutalising nationalistically-distinct territories in its midst, the alarm of Hong Kong's 1997 status change from British to Chinese association was especially shrill. After more than a decade of Chinese association, some scholars remain pessimistic. Some have suggested that as if “by a thousand cuts” Hong Kong's autonomous powers will slowly succumb to full Chinese political assimilation. Others have suggested that Hong Kong's autonomy is already dead and remains vulnerable to the unilateral fiat of Chinese authorities. By contrast to these views, this paper will argue that Hong Kong is a polity whose constitutional order is defended by political entrenchment. It is a partially independent political entity which exercises constitutional powers that are robustly defended by the political-economic influence (rather than constitutional influence) which it exerts upon China's central government. As this paper will show, the fortunes of China's leaders are linked to the performance of Hong Kong's economy. And since the territory's economy rests upon the pillars of its autonomous institutions, press freedom, rule of law and civil liberties, this prevents maximalist interference from Beijing.     

China's 'Omnidirectional Diplomacy': Cooperation with all,Emphasis on Major Powers

In the first half of 2001, China's relationship with the two economic power houses, the US and Japan, was anything but smooth. Tomoyuki Kojima, professor of political science and dean of policy management at Keio University describes the principle of China's foreign policy as ''omnidirectional'' diplomacy. The strained relations with the US and Japan, however, were contradictory to this principle which emphasizes international cooperation with a focus on world powers. In the following article, he examines the main reasons for China's problems with both countries. At the time of writing, Shanghai is to host the 2001 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in October, China is poised to enter the World Trade Organization and Beijing had also won the bid to host the 2008 Olympics. As China becomes more and more internationalized, Kojima argues that the emphasis on cooperation will be perceived as having been of vital importance.     

South Korea and China's Security Objectives in East Asia

This article explores how South Korea relates to China's national security objectives in East Asia. Specifically, it argues that for China, the strategic value of South Korea lies in coping with the strong position of the US in East Asia. Moreover, South Korea's stance on the North Korean nuclear issue is closer to China's, compared with that of the US.     

Between Interest and Responsibility: Assessing China's Foreign Policy and Burgeoning Global Role

Abstract

This article is situated within the contemporary debates about the nature and purpose of China's growing power. It uses the concepts of “national interest” and “international responsibility” as a framework of analysis for Chinese foreign policy, and develops a three-dimensional typology to conceptualize their relationship (antagonistic; instrumental; mutually constitutive). This article adopts two main arguments. First, a stronger China is one gravitating toward greater notions of international responsibility, albeit instrumentally. Second, observable trends in China's evolving worldview indicate, however, that it is conceiving its national interests more broadly, embracing further socialization and greater normative commitments to international society. One may therefore view China's burgeoning global role as a great power with a degree of “cautious optimism.”     

China's Continuous Dam-building on the Mekong River

This article analyses China's hydro-politics along the Mekong River. It seeks to explain why China's unilateral dam-building projects on the upper reaches of the river have not been met with sustained criticism on the part of the downstream riparian countries, for which upstream dams are likely to have severe negative consequences. It is held that China has embarked on a strategy of implicit and broadly conceived actor-reversed issue linkage as a means to nip any loud disapproval of its dams in the bud. By downplaying its dam-building projects and instead promoting common development goals with the Mekong riparian countries through highly increased political and economic engagement, Beijing has successfully defused any potential counter-measures against its dams, at least for the time being. The sustainability of this strategy and its transferability to others of China's trans-boundary rivers must be questioned.     

China's ‘win-win’ cooperation: Unpacking the impact of infrastructure-for-resources deals in Africa

This paper discusses China's use of infrastructure-for-resources loans in Africa as a win–win economic cooperation tool. This formula, offering generous loans for infrastructure in exchange for resource access, came into being largely as a default cooperation tool, inspired by China's own domestic experience, its competitive advantages and Africa's receptivity to this kind of barter deal. Embodying the principle of mutual benefit, China has consistently combined the extension of financial assistance for infrastructure construction in Africa with the expansion of Chinese business interests and the pursuit of resource security goals. The analysis focuses on whether this instrument is actually promoting African development or fuelling instead China's economic growth at the expense of African economies. The author argues that the impact has been mixed. Although there are some meaningful positive signs, many challenges persist, and as such the long-term developmental impact of this particular tool remains uncertain. The responsibility to ensure a positive outcome rests, however, on the African side as much as on China.