美国多边主义东亚新政策剖析

奥巴马就任美国总统以来对东亚政策进行大调整,出台了多边主义东亚新政策.东亚由此出现原生性地区多边主义与美国东亚多边主义并行发展的局面.内容上,美国的多边主义东亚新政策是在新形势下对其原有双边主义东亚政策的适应性调整.其在实践中表现为:将双边同盟关系合并或扩展成以美日同盟为核心的各种三边合作机制,在与包括东盟在内的东亚各行为体建立或加强双边友好合作关系的基础上构建各种小多边合作机制,以及选择通过成员资格具有开放性的“东亚峰会”机制加入东亚一体化.实质上,这一新政策与双边主义东亚政策一样是美国用以维持其东亚领导地位的工具.尽管美国的加入使东亚一体化的力量格局趋于平衡,但其带有很强的应对中国实力上升的色彩和将东亚一体化消解人亚太地区一体化中的意图,使东亚局势更加复杂和不确定.     

Japanese Foreign Policy in the Middle East: Balancing Economy and Security

Abstract

Although the quest for oil has long been a central concern for resource-poor Japan, its foreign policy in the Middle East does not simply reflect a mercantilist interest in the region's resources. Its desire to remain close to the United States during the North Korea crisis and its nascent competition with China are also critical factors in Japan's Middle East policy. However, Japan lacks an integrated strategy toward the Middle East and as a result the various components of its policy are not always compatible. Hence, while Japan has firmly backed the Bush administration's Iraq policies, and begun discussing a possible free-trade agreement with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, it has also, until quite recently, simultaneously pursued closer relations with Iran. In lieu of coherent regional strategy, Japan instead possesses a clearly prioritized sense of its interests in the region.     

美国与东亚能源安全

本文认为,美国是影响东亚能源安全最重要的外部因素之一.在维护海洋运输线路和保障全球能源安全等方面,美国对东亚能源安全的影响大体上是积极的;但美国的单边制裁和能源外交,对东亚能源安全则是不利的.在解决东亚地区内部能源争端方面,美国目前的立场有助于各方保持克制,但是其立场的多变性则可能不利于争端的最终解决.美国对东亚的能源政策以将东亚纳入自己主导的全球能源安全体系为目标,目前的重点是处理中美能源关系.     

The Bush Administration's 'Alliance-Based' East Asia Policy

The US will face major foreign policy challenges in East Asia in the twenty-first century. In this article, Ralph A. Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS, Honolulu, examines the Bush administration's policy towards East Asia which he argues continues to be alliance-based. The principal issues include: the precarious situation on the Korean Peninsula; China's potential emergence as a regional power and the sensitive topic of the Taiwan Strait, Japan's struggle with economic and constitutional reform and an unstable Indonesia. The administration's stated commitment to missile defense has been well publicized and the security implications of this for the region are also examined by Cossa. Although a ''Vision statement'' on the Asia-Pacific is still lacking and needed, he argues that the basic components of the Bush administration's Asia strategy appear to be well-formed.     

多边主义与东亚的安全困境

东亚是安全困境普遍存在并表现突出的地区,现实主义的权力政治理论并不能缓解各国之间的安全困境,而多边主义对东亚安全不仅具有重要的理论意义,而且在东盟的实践中已经取得了初步的成果.在现有的基础上,继续推进东亚安全领域的多边主义进程,有助于增进各国间的信任关系,减低安全困境的烈度,并为最终走出安全困境,营建东亚持久稳定的安全环境创造条件.     

Security and Peace in East Asia and the Asia-Pacific

Abstract

Two recent books make significant contributions to the scholarly literature both in East Asian security studies and in international relations theory more generally. While developing international relations theory by drawing from the non-Western experiences of East Asia, these books complement the existing international relations theory that has been criticized for being overly West-centric. The books also develop some interesting East Asian, neopragmatic ideas on the “theory of theory” in international relations. These ideas have a potential of not only changing our answers to questions about East Asian security but also reformulating the questions we ask in our investigation of international security issues.     

互动中的普京外交调整与国内改革

9·11事件之后,普京政府抓住国内经济改善、政治结构趋向稳定的时机,大幅度推进了与美国及其他西方国家的关系。大多数民众对普京调整美、俄关系持肯定态度,政治精英层面较民众而言表现出更为复杂的心态。 俄在与西方国家进行战略调整的同时与其他非西方国家接近,也表明俄作为一个欧亚大国毕竟有着不同于一般西方国家的广泛利益。普京政府正是在大国关系调整的背景下,稳步而又积极地推进国内政治、经济的改革。     

论东亚地区的政治、安全结构

本文试图对冷战后东亚地区的政治、安全结构作一个更具包容性的解释,并将这一地区政治、安全领域尤其是安全领域出现的各种现象抽象地概括为三种基本模式,即多极模式、霸权稳定模式和多边安全合作模式.本文认为,以上三种要素构成了世纪之交东亚地区政治、安全环境的单元性基本结构要素,并在此基础上形成了一个对该地区的政治、安全形势进行宏观性解释和分析的框架.     

50年代的美国与东亚--评《双重的遏制:艾森豪威尔政府的东亚政策》

整个20世纪后半期的世界历史大致上可以概括为美苏冷战的历史.这场美苏之间的竞争最初集中于欧洲和西亚,但不久以后冷战便呈现出扩、散的趋势,而首先波及的地区就是人口密集、形势复杂的东亚.南京大学中美文化研究中心副教授蔡佳禾的《双重的遏制:艾森豪威尔政府的东亚政策》(南京大学出版社1999年版,以下简称为《双重的遏制》一书;对艾森豪威尔时期美国的东亚政策进行了较为系统的研究.     

21世纪初东亚经济展望

21世纪是"知识经济"的世纪,经济全球化与一体化的趋势加速向前推进,它将给东亚带来诸多的机遇,也带来挑战.当前,东亚经济已开始走向复苏.然而,各地区经济金融结构调整与体制变革刚刚起步,加之国际环境的种种变数,使得各地区为保持稳定复苏前景,务必加速调整与改革的步伐,其经济才能走上持续复苏的轨道.     

检视欧盟共同外交政策运作共同体化的可能性

随着欧盟不断深化和扩大,又企图在全球事务上扮演重要角色,国际学界遂从原共同体法研究和共同外交与安全政策研究中发展出一个针对欧盟对外事务法律研究的新领域,专门研究欧盟对外事务的法律规范,以及这些规范对欧盟对外行为的影响。由于《里斯本条约》取消了三支柱架构,将共同体和联盟合并成一个新的欧洲联盟,并赋予法律人格,原共同体法也蜕变为联盟法,学界开始探索原共同体法是否可能因此渗入共同外交与安全政策运作。本文顺着制度主义的脉络,首先分析《里斯本条约》创设的新制对欧盟共同外交政策运作可能产生的影响,然后尝试聚焦法律的演变,来探究欧盟共同外交"共同体化"的可能,包括欧洲法院对共同外交政策的管辖权、共同外交决策在新联盟中的法律位阶,以及欧盟通过《欧盟运行条约》第352条径行扩权的可能性。作者认为,欧盟共同外交的"共同体化"其实早已悄悄展开,《里斯本条约》则可能会加快这个发展,但是通过法律渗透而建立的一体化共同外交政策,并不能提升其效率,反而可能治丝愈棼,掣肘欧盟在全球事务上扮演一个更积极、更有影响力的角色。     

21世纪初东亚合作问题

在经济方面 ,东亚必须加强区域内合作 ,尤其是东北亚与东南亚以及中日之间的合作 ,同时还要妥善处理与美、欧以及其他地区的关系。在安全方面 ,东亚已通过东盟地区论坛等途径建立了对话与合作的基础 ,而非传统安全的威胁则导致东亚合作安全新理念的逐步形成。此外 ,在东亚已经出现的集体认同趋势也将对东亚合作产生深刻的影响。     

South Korea and China's Security Objectives in East Asia

This article explores how South Korea relates to China's national security objectives in East Asia. Specifically, it argues that for China, the strategic value of South Korea lies in coping with the strong position of the US in East Asia. Moreover, South Korea's stance on the North Korean nuclear issue is closer to China's, compared with that of the US.     

从抗非典看东亚非传统安全合作

本文从非传统安全的角度研究了非典对国家安全的影响 ,论述了东亚各国联合抗击非典的主要措施及其重要意义 ,对东亚在非传统安全领域合作的前景进行了评估并提出了关于进一步加强合作的几点建议     

An Historical and Political View of the Reserve and Guard Forces of the Baltic States at the Beginning of the Twenty-first Century

Abstract

The changes that have occurred in Europe since the end of the Cold War might be the most significant since the middle of the medieval period. With Poland and other nations of Central Europe, including the three Baltic states, joining the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) the political and cultural shape of Europe is rapidly changing. For the first time since the death of Charlemagne over 1,000 years ago, all of Central and Western Europe has a genuine chance of uniting. Even though this integrated Europe will be under the flag of the EU, the key that is making this possible is the military and economic power of the United States. The organization that brings the protective umbrella of the US is NATO. For nations to be taken seriously as members of NATO, they must have credible military forces. For all countries this includes the reserve and guard forces, but for small countries with conservative budgets the reserve and Home/National Guard become the most important forces. Since the Baltic states are three small countries building their militaries from zero since the end of the Cold War, the importance of the reserve and guard cannot be overemphasized. This article examines the reserve and Guard forces of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania from the end of the Cold War to the beginning of the twenty-first century.