Reform,Demokratisierung, Stabilität oder Kollaps? Literaturbericht zur Entwicklung des chinesischen Herrschaftssystems

Politische Vierteljahresschrift - Der Literaturbericht gibt eine Übersicht über die internationale Debatte zur aktuellen innenpolitischen Entwicklung Chinas und zur möglichen...     

Kinder an die Macht?

In order to illuminate the consequences of extra votes for parents, this article looks at the questions of whether parents differ in their party choice from younger people and of what the overall results would have been like for German Bundestag elections in 1994–2005. The results can be summarised as follows: (1) In simple comparisons, parents and childless people have not differed a lot in their party preferences since the first half of the 1990s. However, a more complex analysis of the 2005 elections brought to light systematic differences that are contingent on voters’ age and on their region. (2) The aggregate results of the 1994 to 2005 elections would have looked very much the same. Thus, no party would profit per se in electoral terms from the introduction of the proxy vote for children.     

Regierungsbildung im deutschen Fünf-Parteiensystem

Since 2005 all five parliamentary parties in the German Bundestag have coalition potential in the sense that they are able to enter at least one minimal winning coalition, that is a coalition without parties which are not necessary for a majority. Given the number of each party’s members of parliament, the strategic coalition situation is fixed as the set of possible minimal winning coalitions. With certain assumptions (no party will gain an absolute majority, the party system consists of two larger and three smaller parties etc.) two strategic coalition situations are possible as a consequence of the Bundestag election in September 2009: the same as the existing one where only CDU/CSU and SPD can form a two party majority government, and an alternative, predicted currently (February/March 2009) by pollsters, where the largest party, probably the CDU/CSU, can form a two party majority coalition also with the third largest party, probably the FDP. In addition, several three party coalitions are also possible. Which of these coalitions will actually be formed will be determined by the policy distances between the parties which are identified in a two dimensional policy space (economic and social issue positions of parties). The possible minimal winning coalitions are further constrained by the majority coalitions in the so-called cycle set as defined by Schofield.     

Rechtsextremistische Wahlabsicht und regionaler Kontext: Mehrebenenanalysen zur Rolle sozialer Milieus und regionaler Gruppenkonflikte in Deutschland

In this article, we test individual and contextual level hypotheses about right-wing extremist voting in Germany derived from cleavage theory and the theory of realistic group conflicts. The data base is exceptional insofar as it allows multilevel analyses of right-wing extremism that include the level of the German districts between the respondent and the federal state level. Our findings demonstrate — to our knowledge for the first time — that the contextual influence of the religious/catholic milieu as well as of the regional tradition of trade union membership reduce the likelihood of a right-wing extremist party preference. Cleavage theory is thus clearly supported. With respect to the theory of realistic group conflicts we find support for some of its implications.     

Moderat bevorzugt, extrem gewählt. Zum Zusammenhang von Präferenz und Wahlentscheidung in räumlichen Modellen sachfragenorientierten Wählens

This article demonstrates, on the basis of survey data from the 2005 German national election, that voters often systematically choose more extreme parties than warranted by their own preferences. Estimation of Grofman’s (1985) spatial discounting model reveals that party preference and vote decision follow different utility functions. Preferences turn out to be purely proximity driven, i. e. voters prefer parties with positions close to their own. Moving from preference to the vote of the top-ranked alternative, a devaluation of party positions and a significant shift in voter utility towards more extreme parties is observed. These results show that voter behaviour may change, even though voter preferences remain unchanged. Results also suggest that the remarkable success of FDP and Linke in the 2005 election is more likely due to shifting behaviour by moderate voters rather than to sweeping changes in the German electorate’s preferences toward welfare policy.     

Interdependenz und ideologische position: Die konditionale Diffusion der Zigarettenbesteuerung in den US-amerikanischen Bundesstaaten 1971–2006

This paper inquires into the interdependence of cigarette taxation in the US states between 1971 and 2006. It is argued that diffusion influences emanating from the tax policies of other states have an effect that is conditional upon the government ideology in a focal state. Specifically, it is shown that only those state governments that are not positioned on the far right end of an ideology continuum use an environment of high cigarette taxes to pursue their fiscal and health policy goals. At the same time, interventionist ideology can only be effective if it operates within a favorable policy environment. I argue that casting policy diffusion as conditional allows for empirically more accurate and theoretically richer models.     

Ein gordischer Knoten der Politikwissenschaft? Zur Vereinbarkeit von Föderalismus und Demokratie

Politische Vierteljahresschrift - Politische Systeme im nationalen und internationalen Kontext werden zunehmend nach Prinzipien des Föderalismus organisiert. Nach wie vor ungeklärt ist...     

Zwischen Macht und Gerechtigkeit

The nuclear nonproliferation regime is an amazing success story: The number of countries which have stopped nuclear weapons activities in various stages of progress is much larger than the number of nuclear weapon states. At the apex of its success, however, the regime is threatened by erosion from two different directions: A small number of rule-breakers and outsiders undermines its central objective: to stop the spread of nuclear weapons. The refusal of the official nuclear weapon states to fulfill their undertaking of nuclear disarmament violates the principle of justice enshrined in the treaty, and thereby destroys its legitimacy. This insight has meanwhile expanded beyond the group of stubborn disarmers into the mainstream security establishment. How successful this expansion will be will determine the future of the regime — with far-reaching consequences for global security.     

Prinzipal Parlament. Die Bedeutung europäischer Parlamente als Wahlorgane

In parliamentary systems of government, parliaments can be conceptualized as central power-distributing institutions and as principals of the cabinet and other external officeholders. Relying on the principal-agent framework, this paper shows that electoral powers of parliaments can reduce agency loss and indicate a deviation from the ideal typical chain of delegation in parliamentary systems. Electoral powers of parliaments can be used to assess the degree to which cabinets are indeed constrained by external officeholders, whose constraining effect is often simply assumed. Empirically, the paper offers the first systematic comparative study of electoral powers of 25 European parliaments with regard to seven state offices. The analysis reveals major differences between parliaments and identifies electoral powers as an empirically distinct dimension of parliamentary power resources.     

Wirtschaftspolitischer Handlungsspielraum im Zeitalter der Globalisierung. Eine empirische Untersuchung am Beispiel von Währungskrisen

This article assesses the popular view that currency crises represent a prime example of the constraints that globalization imposes on governments’ policy autonomy. We show that governments in fact have the possibility to respond to speculative pressure in different ways. Whether or not policymakers succumb to this pressure is not solely determined by economic factors but also a question of political considerations. Political preferences, institutions, and events significantly affect policy responses to currency crises. Our results suggest that national governments retain substantial short-run policy autonomy even in highly internationalized policy areas such as monetary and exchange rate policy.     

Reformfähigkeit messen? Konzeptionelle Überlegungen zu einem Reformfähigkeitsindex für OECD-Staaten

In the present article, I propose to determine reform capacity based upon policy outcomes and the governing performance of executives. Both components shall be measured through expert assessments and quantitative data for the 30 OECD member states in order to construct an index of reform capacity. The concepts underpinning the index are explained and compared with existing approaches of performance and governance measurement. Criteria are developed to assess the strategic capacity of governments and the accountability-generating functions of political actors surrounding the government. The envisaged measurement and aggregation methods are described and the potential of the proposed approach is discussed.     

Von der typologischen zur dimensionalen Analyse parlamentarischer Demokratien: konzeptionelle Überlegungen am Beispiel Mittelosteuropas

Zusammenfassung  Am Beispiel von zehn parlamentarischen Demokratien in Mittelosteuropa (1995–2004) werden neue Demokratiemuster nachgewiesen, welche die Kombination von machtkonzentrierenden und machtdispersiven Effekten von Akteurskonstellationen und formal-institutionellen Entscheidungsregeln (elektoral und legislativ) erfassen. Damit leistet die vorliegende Untersuchung einen theoretischen und empirischen Beitrag zur Wirkungslogik von Institutionen und Akteuren auf die Politikperformanz parlamentarischer Demokratien.      

Die proportionale Ministerienaufteilung in deutschen Koalitionsregierungen: Akzeptierte Norm oder das Ausnutzen strategischer Vorteile?

In this paper, we corroborate Gamson’s Law for a data set including German coalition governments on the federal and Länder level. We further tackle the question of how to explain this regularity. Here, we conclude that it is not the bargaining power of parties resulting from seat distribution that could be able to explain Gamson’s Law. In fact, we identify Gamson’s Law as a behavioural norm which evolved over time in Germany. We finally confirm the conjecture that on average smaller parties profit and larger parties suffer from deviations from Gamson’s Law. However, there is also a strong party bias which is able to invert this effect for single parties as e. g. the Greens or the Party of Democratic Socialism. Further variables such as the size of the party system or the number of parties which form a coalition government can also explain some deviations from the Gamson’s Law.     

Koalitionsbildungen zwischen Ämter- und Politikmotivation. Konstruktion einer interdependenten Nutzenfunktion

While newer coalition theories take into account that parties are both office and policy motivated, one problem remains unsolved: the fact that offices (ministries) and policies are inseparably connected with each other. In this essay, we solve this problem by constructing a utility function which considers the interdependency of office distributions and policy outputs. This utility function — which can be used as a basis for further coalition theories — is able to capture the interdependencies also in empirical applications, as we illustrate for the example of the coalition building process after the Bundestag elections of 2002.     

Hochschulpolitik in mittel- und osteuropa: Konvergenz zu einem gemeinsamen Modell?

In contrast to many other areas, international and European influences on national higher education policies remained limited for a long time. This picture changed fundamentally in the late 1990s with the establishment of the so-called Bologna Process which has the objective of setting up a common European higher education area. So far, however, we have limited knowledge about the extent to which this development actually led to the convergence of national higher education policies. Are national policies moving towards a common model, or are domestic reforms rather characterized by the specific conditions given at the domestic level? In this article these questions are adressed with regard to Central and Eastern European countries which are characterized by different pre-communist and communist patterns of higher education policy.     

Kritik und Neubewertung politischer Repräsentation: vom Hindernis zur Möglichkeitsbedingung politischer Freiheit

In participatory democratic theory we see a positive reassessment of political representation these days. Whereas until recently representation has at best been accepted as an unavoidable substitute for direct democracy, newer theories regard representation as constitutive for democratic political action. Such a turn in the assessment of representation has become possible by dismissing an autonomy-oriented concept of democracy that goes back to Rousseau, and of which a modified version is represented by Jürgen Habermas today. The new interpretations understand representation not in the sense of an as perfect as possible transmission of the will of the represented to the representative, but as a relation of difference which allows for plural acting and political judgment in the first place. Although the discussion of these theories shows that they can offer an interesting theoretical reconstruction of representative democracy, they remain very vague in specifiying concrete possibilities of political action and democratic participation for the represented.     

Die Eigendynamik zur Eindimensionalität des Parteienwettbewerbs: eine Simulationsstudie

While German ideological space is often characterized with two dimensions, empirical estimation demonstrates that party positions can be placed on a uni-dimensional scale. This seems to be inconsistent with conventional spatial models of party competition, since parties should, accordingly, exhaust the two-dimensional space to maximize their votes. This paper suggests an alternative spatial model which adjusts or removes some restrictive assumptions of the conventional models. Most importantly, the model suggested here allows parties to influence the salience and (non-)separability of both dimensions at voters’ decision processes. The simulation results demonstrate that the vote-maximizing parties can coordinate themselves in favor of inequality of the salience or non-separability of both dimensions. This, in turn, leads to a certain level of unidimensionality of party positions.     

Der Einfluss von Koalitionsaussagen,programmatischen Standpunkten und der Bundespolitik auf die Regierungsbildung in den deutschen Ländern

Party politics at the German state level plays a decisive role for patterns of party competition and for legislative decision-making at the federal level. This article analyses the impact of party politics at the state and the federal level on the formation of coalition governments in the German Laender. The empirical analysis is based on a unique dataset that covers information on the state parties’ programmatic positions, their pre-electoral alliances, and the structure of party competition on the federal level in the time period between 1990 and 2007. The results reveal that the programmatic positions of state parties have a decisive impact on government formation. Other relevant factors are the parties’ relative strength, their coalition preferences and the partisan composition of government and opposition on the federal level.     

Bildung und die „neue“ Sozialdemokratie: eine Analyse aus der Sicht der vergleichenden Staatsausgabenforschung

The rhetoric of “reformed” social democracy has emphasized education and investment in human capital formation since the 1990s. Nevertheless, scholarly accounts of social democratic government policies have neglected the study of education politics. This article addresses the question of whether the move from traditional to reformist social democracy can be traced in the analysis of public social and education spending in the 1980s and 1990s. I show that government participation of social democrats went along with increases in social transfer spending in the 1980s, whereas in the 1990s, social democrats have instead increased spending on education, and higher education in particular, and curtailed spending on social transfers. The final section of the article discusses the implications of these findings for the future development of partisan theory.