Comparing Gender Across Risk and Recidivism in Nonviolent Offenders

The purpose of this study was to examine whether gender differences exist in the rate, type, and general predictors of recidivism for nonviolent offenders. A total of 328 male and female Texas state jail offenders were matched on current offense, total number of arrests, age, and race. Contrary to previous findings, the results demonstrated no significant gender differences for recidivism rates, although significant gender differences were found for those who had reoffended with property and prostitution offenses. Similar to previous findings, age and total arrests were significant predictors for both male and female offenders. In the current sample, substance abuse was predictive for male offenders only. Although no gender differences were found across the recidivism predictors of static and criminogenic need, the protective factors of positive social support significantly predicted recidivism for female offenders and not male offenders. The current results add to the understanding of gender differences for the assessment, risk prediction, and treatment of offenders.     

The predictive validity of criminogenic needs for male and female offenders: Comparing the relative impact of needs in predicting recidivism

Most instruments used to assess offenders' risk of recidivism were developed and validated on male samples. Use of these instruments with female offenders is, however, common practice. This use with female offenders implies the assumption that the risk of recidivism can be predicted on the basis of the same risk factors for women as for men. Yet, this implied gender-neutrality of offender risk instruments has been the topic of much debate. This study compared criminogenic needs in male and female offenders and their relevance in predicting recidivism. A large sample of male and female offenders (N = 16,239) charged with a range of index offenses was studied. Results mainly support the gender neutrality of existing offender risk and needs assessment. However, results do suggest that some criminogenic needs may indeed have a different impact on recidivism for men and women. Problems with accommodation, education and work, and relationships with friends were more strongly correlated to general recidivism in men than in women. For women, difficulties with emotional well-being had a stronger correlation with recidivism than for men. In addition, relative to all other criminogenic needs, problems with emotional well-being were more important for women than for men in predicting general as well as violent recidivism. However, because the bivariate correlation for female offenders between emotional difficulties and recidivism is weak (as it is for male offenders), the question remains whether the relative importance of emotional difficulties in predicting recidivism in women actually has clinical relevance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).     

Female and male sex offenders: a comparison of recidivism patterns and risk factors

Few studies have empirically validated the assertion that female and male sex offenders are vastly different. Therefore, utilizing a matched sample of 780 female and male sex offenders in New York State, the current study explored differences and similarities of recidivism patterns and risk factors for the two offender groups. Results suggested that male sex offenders were significantly more likely than female sex offenders to be rearrested for both sexual and nonsexual offenses. However, limited differences in terms of risk factors between female and male sex offenders were found.     

Sexual predator civil commitment: a comparison of selected and released offenders

This study compared two groups of sex offenders who were considered for civil commitment under Florida's Jimmy Ryce Act: Two hundred twenty-nine sex offenders who were recommended by forensic evaluators to be civilly committed and 221 sex offenders who were recommended for release. It was hypothesized that selected offenders would be more likely to display risk factors for sex offense recidivism than those who did not meet criteria. Data analyses revealed that selected offenders, as a group, scored significantly higher on actuarial risk assessment instruments. There were also significant differences between the groups on other risk factors that have been empirically correlated with sexual recidivism. Selected offenders had higher frequencies of paraphilia diagnoses and antisocial personality. These findings supported the hypotheses and suggested that evaluators are correctly selecting for civil commitment those sex offenders who have a mental abnormality predisposing them to sexual violence and who are at higher risk for reoffense.     

The Effects of Changes in Dynamic Risk on Reoffending among Serious Juvenile Offenders Returning from Residential Placement

This study examines whether changes in dynamic risk during juvenile justice long-term residential placement affect recidivism. Advancing the work of prior dynamic risk change analyses, we examine a large sample of 11,891 male and 1930 female juvenile offenders while taking methodological steps to ensure successful and non-successful youth (in terms of recidivism) are (statistically) identical at admission. Specifically, we employ propensity score matching on residential placement youth who recidivate post-release and non-recidivists on static risk factors and initial dynamic risk scores assessed at admission to residential placement. Post-matching, changes in dynamic risk factors from initial assessment at admission to exit assessment at release are examined with a focus on whether those changes distinguish recidivists from non-recidivists. Separate analyses are conducted for male and female juveniles. Results indicate that changes in dynamic risk do affect recidivism likelihood, but that different factors matter for males and females. These sex-specific models allow for distinct policy recommendations.     

Cross-validation of the self-appraisal questionnaire: a tool for assessing violent and nonviolent recidivism with female offenders

The Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ) is a 72-item self-report measure designed to predict violent and nonviolent recidivism among adult male criminal offenders. It was administered to 91 female offenders incarcerated in Pennsylvania and 183 incarcerated in Singapore correctional systems. Results indicated that the SAQ has sound psychometric properties, with acceptable reliability and concurrent and predictive validity for assessing violent and nonviolent recidivism. There were no significant differences between the scores of African American and Asian offenders and the responses of the White offenders. Similar to the findings from male offenders, the present results provide some support for the validity of the SAQ in the prediction of violent and nonviolent recidivism risk among White, African American, and Asian female offenders.     

The differential predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory: the role of gender

Most criminogenic risk assessments are developed and empirically validated on samples of boys or samples comprised of mostly boys, and subsequently applied to girls. Using a sample of male (n = 1,267) and female (n = 453) probationers, the purpose of the current study was to examine the potentially differential performance of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) and the instrument’s eight domains for female juvenile offenders. Findings revealed gender differences in the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI in which girls scored significantly higher on the risk assessment, but recidivated at significantly lower rates than boys two years following the administration of the assessment. The predictive validity of the instrument was impacted by these gender differences in which the YLS/CMI total score was a better predictor of recidivism for boys (area under the curve (AUC) = .623) than girls (AUC = .565). The only subscales that significantly predicted recidivism for girls were the family (AUC = .607) and personality (AUC = .572) domains, whereas all of the subscales significantly predicted recidivism for boys. Directions for future research as well as gender-responsive assessment, programming, and policy implications are discussed.     

Can 14,737 women be wrong? A meta‐analysis of the LSI‐R and recidivism for female offenders*

Research Summary Over the past two decades, researchers have been increasingly interested in measuring the risk of offender recidivism as a means of advancing public safety and of directing treatment interventions. In this context, one instrument widely used in assessing offenders is the Level of Service Inventory‐Revised (LSI‐R). Recently, however, the LSI‐R has been criticized for being a male‐specific assessment instrument that is a weak predictor of criminal behavior in females. Through the use of meta‐analytic techniques, we assessed this assertion. A total of 27 effect sizes yielded an average r value of .35 ([confidence interval] CI = .34 to .36) for the relationship of the LSI‐R with recidivism for female offenders (N= 14,737). When available, we also made within‐sample comparisons based on gender. These comparisons produced effect sizes for males and females that were statistically similar. Policy Implications These results are consistent with those generated in previous research on the LSI‐R. They call into question prevailing critiques that the LSI‐R has predictive validity for male but not for female offenders. At this stage, it seems that corrections officials should be advised that the LSI‐R remains an important instrument for assessing all offenders as a prelude to the delivery of treatment services, especially those based on the principles of effective intervention. Critics should be encouraged, however, to construct and validate through research additional gender‐specific instruments that revise, if not rival, the LSI‐R.     

Violence risk and gang affiliation in youth offenders: a recidivism study

Abstract

Youth gangs are ubiquitous around the world and have been problematic for the social and criminal justice agencies. Despite widespread public concern, there has been relatively scarce empirical scrutiny of youth gangs internationally and little outside of America and Europe. In particular, the activities of youth gangs, the function of gang membership, the criminogenic needs of gang-affiliated youth, and the risk of criminal recidivism for gang-affiliated youth remain unclear. Against this background, this study explored the sociodemographic characteristics, risk and rate of criminal recidivism in a cohort of 165 male youth offenders in Singapore, of which 58 were gang-affiliated. Multivariate analyses revealed that gang-affiliated youth offenders were significantly more likely to have histories of substance use, weapon use and violence than nongang-affiliated youth offenders. Gang-affiliated offenders also scored higher on measures of risk for recidivism (SAVRY and YLS/CMI), and engaged in violent and other criminal behaviors more frequently during follow-up. These differences indicate a significant relationship between gang affiliation and criminal recidivism in youth offenders. Furthermore, these findings have important clinical and policy implications, indicating an increased requirement for additional and more intensive assessment and tailored interventions for gang-affiliated youth offenders.     

Male victims and post treatment risk assessment among adult male sex offenders

The use of actuarial instruments to predict sex offender recidivism has gained increasing credibility in recent years. This paper is one in a series examining the impact of dynamic inpatient group therapy upon the predictive influence of static risk factors on recidivism among adult sex offenders. Successful completion of the Phoenix Program (Alberta Hospital Edmonton) has been shown to ameliorate the influence of static risk factors on sexual offense recidivism. Many studies have reported that sex offenders who have male victims are more likely to re-offend than those who do not have male victims. A sample of N=513 convicted adult male sex offenders was examined regarding the relationship between the static risk factor of having male victims, subsequent re-offense, and treatment impact. Interestingly, ever having had a male victim did not significantly correlate with sex offense recidivism, for either treatment completers, non-completers, or the combined group. However, having exclusively male victims was correlated with sex offense recidivism, but only among non-completers of the program (r=.155; p=.017). Analysis of a subset of 422 child molesters yielded a similar result, in that having male victims exclusively was only associated with sex offense recidivism among treatment non-completers (r=.189, p=.009).     

A Time Series Modeling Approach in Risk Appraisal of Violent and Sexual Recidivism

For over half a century, various clinical and actuarial methods have been employed to assess the likelihood of violent recidivism. Yet there is a need for new methods that can improve the accuracy of recidivism predictions. This study proposes a new time series modeling approach that generates high levels of predictive accuracy over short and long periods of time. The proposed approach outperformed two widely used actuarial instruments (i.e., the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Furthermore, analysis of temporal risk variations based on specific time series models can add valuable information into risk assessment and management of violent offenders.     

Arbitrary decision making in the absence of evidence: an examination of factors related to treatment selection and recidivism for female sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

As criminal justice professionals are asked to assign risk levels and treat females who sexually offend, identifying risk factors for recidivism prediction and treatment targets is important. Although the majority of risk and treatment studies have focused on males, general female offender research and developing research with female sex offenders both provide some evidence for possible factors related to sexual offending behaviour in women. The purpose of this study was to explore what possible factors were related to treatment selection in a sample of 506 females serving prison sentences for a sexual offense, and, in turn, to examine which factors predicted non-sexual and sexual recidivism. Results demonstrated that exploratory variables were significantly related to treatment selection, as opposed to variables previously supported in research. Furthermore, living with a significant other for more than two years, and prior sexual offending arrests predicted sexual recidivism, while decreased age and treatment participation predicted non-sexual recidivism. These findings indicate that while similarities between male and female sexual offenders exist, females still demonstrate gender-specific risk factors.     

Criminal recidivism in sexual homicide perpetrators

Forensic psychiatric reports on 166 sexual homicide perpetrators in Germany were retrospectively analyzed for criminal risk factors. Follow-up information about release and reconvictions from federal criminal records was available for 139 offenders; 90 (64.7%) had been released. The estimated recidivism rate (Kaplan-Meier analyses) for 20 years at risk was 23.1% for sexual and 18.3% for nonsexual violent reoffences. Three men (3.3%) were reconvicted for attempted or completed homicide. Only young age at the time of sexual homicide resulted in higher sexual recidivism, whereas increased nonsexual violent recidivism was related to previous sexual and nonsexual delinquency, psychopathic symptoms, and higher scores in risk assessment instruments. Increased recidivism with any violent reoffence was associated with age-related factors: young age at first sexual offence, at homicide, and at release and duration of detention. The impacts of the results for risk assessment, relapse prevention, and supervision are discussed.     

Risk and the preventive detention of sex offenders in Australia and the United States

The development of recent statutory schemes, in both the United States and Australia, aim to keep the most dangerous sex offenders detained beyond the expiration of their prison sentence. In Kansas v. Hendricks (1997), the United States Supreme Court found constitutional Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) legislation that allows for the post-sentence, indefinite civil commitment of a subclass of dangerous offenders. More recently, the Australian High Court in Attorney-General (Qld) v. Fardon (2004) similarly upheld the constitutionality of Queensland's Dangerous Prisoners (Sexual Offenders) Act (2003), which allows for the post-sentence preventive detention of sex offenders deemed to be at high risk of serious sexual recidivism. Because an evaluation of a sex offender's likelihood of re-offending is fundamental to these schemes, this article provides an overview of recent advances in the risk assessment literature, discussing base rates of sexual recidivism, the identification of empirically validated risk factors, and the utility of structured risk assessment tools. Although it is recommended that risk assessment measures be utilized to assist the courts in making sound decisions about commitment, the limits of current research knowledge and areas of future research need are discussed.     

The assessment of risk to recidivate among a juvenile offending population

The Florida Department of Juvenile Justice has implemented a new fourth-generation risk/need assessment to assess the risk to re-offend for juveniles referred to the department. The new assessment, the Positive Achievement Change Tool, or PACT, is adapted from the validated Washington State Juvenile Court Assessment, on which the Youth Assessment Screening Inventory (YASI) was also modeled. This study validated the PACT assessment, and examined whether the instrument is as predictive of female delinquency as it is of male delinquency, utilizing subsequent official delinquency referral as the dependent measure. Gender differences were explored and illustrated the instrument to be effective in predicting female and male delinquency, yet the factors predicting female delinquency did not mimic those predictive of male delinquency. Furthermore, for both male and female juveniles, a score of environmental and personal characteristics and situations had a stronger relationship with recidivism than did a score of official criminal history.     

Sexual offenders with learning disabilities: risk,recidivism and treatment

Abstract

While the literature on the assessment, treatment and management of non-learning disabled sexual offenders is well established, it is only in recent years that researchers and clinicians have focused on sexual offenders with learning disabilities. In contrast to mainstream sex offender treatment programmes, there are few evaluated community-based treatment programmes for sexual offenders with learning disabilities, and of the small number of published studies that describe treatment programmes, most are based on small samples and few have been validated empirically. Sexual offenders with learning disabilities differ from their non-disabled counterparts in several important ways, having implications for management and treatment. Due to methodological differences between studies, the prevalence of sexual offending by men with learning disabilities is not clear. However, in some studies, the sexual recidivism rate of offenders with learning disabilities is 6.8 times and 3.5 times that of non-disabled sexual offenders at 2- and 4-years’ follow-up, respectively. Sexual offenders with learning disabilities are also at greater risk of re-offending in a shorter time period. There remains an urgent need for further research into the assessment of risk and whether components from mainstream treatment programmes can be adapted to meet the needs of learning disabled sexual offenders. Approaches to working with sexual offenders with learning disabilities and programme development are discussed.     

RISK,RACE, AND RECIDIVISM: PREDICTIVE BIAS AND DISPARATE IMPACT*

One way to unwind mass incarceration without compromising public safety is to use risk assessment instruments in sentencing and corrections. Although these instruments figure prominently in current reforms, critics argue that benefits in crime control will be offset by an adverse effect on racial minorities. Based on a sample of 34,794 federal offenders, we examine the relationships among race, risk assessment [the Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA)], and future arrest. First, application of well‐established principles of psychological science revealed little evidence of test bias for the PCRA—the instrument strongly predicts arrest for both Black and White offenders, and a given score has essentially the same meaning—that is, the same probability of recidivism—across groups. Second, Black offenders obtain higher average PCRA scores than do White offenders (d = .34; 13.5 percent nonoverlap in groups’ scores), so some applications could create disparate impact. Third, most (66 percent) of the racial difference in PCRA scores is attributable to criminal history—which is already embedded in sentencing guidelines. Finally, criminal history is not a proxy for race, but instead it mediates the relationship between race and future arrest. Data are more helpful than rhetoric if the goal is to improve practice at this opportune moment in history.     

Criminogenic need and women offenders: A critique of the literature

Purpose . This paper considers the criminogenic needs of women offenders, raising the question of whether there may be women‐specific criminogenic needs. Arguments . The risk‐needs model of offending has become increasingly influential in both research and practice. Simply, the risk–needs model holds that some aspects of an individual's functioning are risk factors for offending. The distinction can be drawn between static and dynamic risk factors: the former are historical, the latter reflect current functioning and are amenable to change. These dynamic attributes linked to offending – such as financial status, emotional problems, and substance use – are referred to as criminogenic needs. Needs assessment instruments, such as the Level of Service Inventory‐Revised (LSI‐R; Andrews & Bonta, 1995 ) have been developed to assess criminogenic need and predict risk of offending. Much of the research informing the risk–needs model has been carried out with male offenders, leading to questions about the criminogenic needs of women offenders and whether there may be women‐specific criminogenic needs. Conclusion . An overview of typical criminogenic needs, as assessed by the LSI‐R, suggests that there are probably common needs for male and female offenders. A common need does not imply that aetiology or level of importance of that need is the same for men and women, while some events, such as physical and sexual abuse, are arguably criminogenic needs for women. The implications for practice and research of understanding more about women‐specific criminogenic needs are considered.     

The PCL-R and violent recidivism in a prospective follow-up of a nationwide sample of female offenders

Psychopathy has been linked to violent reoffending in men, but the findings in women have been contradictory. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) for violent recidivism in a nationwide sample of female violent offenders. The offenders (n = 48) had been assessed by the PCL-R and were followed after their release from prison or a psychiatric hospital. The average follow-up period was 8 years. Of the offenders, 16 (33%) had been reconvicted of a violent crime. Current findings of the performance indicators did not support the use of the PCL-R as a predictive instrument assessing risk of violent recidivism in females. The findings indicate that impulsivity plays a crucial role in female violent recidivism and that the PCL-R should be used with caution in risk assessment with female populations.     

Psychopathy and Recidivism Among Female Inmates

Despite a plethora of studies investigating psychopathy among male offenders, little is known about the applicability of this construct to female populations. Research has shown that prevalence rate, symptom presentation, and diagnostic comorbidity differ for females as compared to males. The current study is the first to examine the relationship between psychopathy and recidivism among women. Recidivism data on a sample of 78 female inmates were examined at a 1-year interval in relation to the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R), inclusion criteria for the Antisocial Personality Disorder Diagnosis from the Personality Disorder Examination (PDE), and selected scales from the Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI; Antisocial and Aggression scales). The egocentricity subscale of the PAI, Factor 1 of the PCL-R, and the verbal aggression subscale of the PAI were the best predictors of future recidivism. Specific differences emerged between male and female offenders when comparing the present data with previous studies of male psychopaths.