跨太平洋伙伴关系协议(TPP)的成本收益分析:中国的视角

早在谈判初期,TPP就宣称将达成一个全面的、高水平的面向21世纪的自由贸易协议,但事实上,TPP将无助于加强亚太地区的经济联系,更无法解决亚太地区的"意大利面条碗效应"问题。关于TPP的成本收益分析表明,经济小国或许能够从TPP中获益,但是对大国而言,TPP基本没有经济价值。TPP只是美国应对东亚合作、获得非传统经济利益的工具。从中国角度看,长期内,克服TPP负面影响的根本途径是扩大内需;中期内则需要与日本共同推动实现东亚合作,确保中国在整个TPP博弈中获得次优结果。     

Mega-Regional Trade Deals in the Asia-Pacific: Choosing Between the TPP and RCEP?

The emergence of “mega-regional” trade agreements has recently become the most significant trade policy issue in the Asia-Pacific. Since 2010, governments in the region have launched negotiations for two new trade agreements: the United States-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the ASEAN-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Differentiated by their membership, scope and level of ambition, the TPP and RCEP embody competing visions for how the Asia-Pacific trade system should evolve, and regional governments must now make choices over which initiative better serves their economic and political interests. This article explores the trade policy choice posed by these mega-regional trade negotiations, reviewing the evolution of the Asia-Pacific trade system, the recent emergence of the TPP and RCEP, and the competitive dynamics inherent in the development of the two proposals. It argues that four key considerations (trade policy ambition, the role of ASEAN, US-China geopolitical rivalry and defensive concerns) will be of key importance in informing regional governments’ decisions as the TPP and RCEP move towards completion in 2015.     

Diplomatic Objectives in Trade Politics: The Development of the China-Japan-Korea FTA

This article seeks to analyze the development of free trade agreement (FTA) policies adopted by China, Japan, and South Korea with particular interests in the trilateral FTA. It seeks to address what the determinant factors that have conditioned the development of the trilateral FTA are. While the three governments began the informal joint study of the trilateral FTA in 2003, they pursued diverse trade strategies that disturbed a shift to formal negotiations. However, China's strategy to hedge against the US influence in East Asia became a catalyst in shifting from the long-lasting study stage to the launching of negotiations. Moreover, Japan's strategy to participate in TPP negotiations as a soft balancing against China through closer political linkages with the United States weakened China's and South Korea's willingness to engage in the trilateral FTA positively. Thus, the three countries’ commitments to the trilateral FTA were primarily confined by their specific diplomatic objectives responding to the political-economic evolutions in the Asia-Pacific region.     

Getting It Right: Japan and Trans-Pacific Partnership

This paper explores the opportunities presented by the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to Japan to revitalize its trade policy, bolster economic growth, and increase participation in regional multilateral fora for the 21^st century. Despite its strengths, Japan has continued to face problems caused by its economic, political, and strategic policies. The Japanese economy has been stagnant for the last several decades, and Japan needs to take bold steps to ameliorate this situation. Politically, domestic political paralysis has had a negative impact on Japan's alliances and partnerships and eroded Tokyo's ability to act as a major player in the increasing vital and important Indo-Pacific region. Connected to this, it is imperative for Japan to engage itself deeply in Asia in ways that increase strategic trust. This paper will also highlight the necessary reforms Japan must undertake to take full advantage of the benefits of the TPP, as well as what the TPP might mean for its relationship with both the US and other regional partners.     

Close Economic Exchange with a Threatening State: An Awkward Dilemma over China

China’s rise presents a daunting dilemma for many Asia-Pacific states. What has not been fully appreciated is that many of China’s neighbors confront the dilemma of “close economic exchange with a threatening state” (CEETS). If they continue CEETS, it strengthens the threatening state’s economic and military power, jeopardizing their security. However, ending CEETS can cause their own economies to decline, deteriorating their national power and destabilizing their governments. Dominant theories such as realism and liberalism have not adequately explained security problems caused by CEETS, its origins, and potential countermeasures against it. This article examines these issues, focusing on the Asia-Pacific. Although there is no single panacea against CEETS dilemma, a regional agreement such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could be a promising countermeasure against it.     

The Potential of China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Agreement

This article explores the economic calculations behind the recent initiatives for the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the Governments of China, Japan and South Korea (CJK) and clarifies the implications for future regional economic integration. First, the proposed trilateral FTA signifies an advancement of China-centered regional economic integration. Regional economic integration led by China may also increase its political clout at the global stage. Second, the Governments of South Korea and Japan seek greater involvement in China's huge domestic market, but the former is concerned that a trilateral FTA will worsen its trade deficit with Japan, and the latter is afraid of losing its market shares in China and America to its Korean rival. Japan, therefore, seeks membership of both the CJK FTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Third, China and the US' active involvement in regional economic integration will push the three countries to go forward towards greater economic cooperation. However, it will take longer for China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and America-led TPP to bear fruit because of the large number of countries involved. Therefore, the conclusion of CJK FTA will be an important boost for the further progress of both RCEP and TPP. It will also be an important stabiliser for the trilateral political relations in the future.     

跨太平洋伙伴关系协议(TPP):研究前沿与架构

"跨太平洋伙伴关系协议"(TPP)在美国的积极推动下发展迅速,似乎将成为亚太地区新的竞争性区域合作机制。TPP以成员国全面零关税、知识产权保护、劳工和环保等议题为特点,提出建立高质量和高标准的自由贸易区,已吸引了包括美国在内的亚太九国参加协议谈判。在TPP建立过程中,美国企图重获亚太经济主导权的意图明显;日本虽积极参与,但自身困难重重;东盟在巩固现有基础上,并不排斥新机制出现。当前,美国主导TPP势头正盛,但其发展态势并不明朗,TPP谈判仍将面临美国国内政治因素和技术问题的双重障碍以及日本能否顺利加入等问题;当前的国际政治与经济局势,使中国面临新的挑战与机遇,宜通过调整经济结构,扩大内需,完善和巩固现有区域合作战略以积极应对TPP的发展。未来,中国与美日韩以及东盟等双边和多边经贸关系受TPP的实质影响将成为新一轮研究重点。     

What might be expected from the APEC meetings in Osaka

The purpose of the third APEC “summit,” taking place in Osaka on November 19, 1995, is to begin securing agreement on an action plan for achieving the “Bogor goals” of free and open trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region by 2020, with the developed economies doing so by 2010. With pragmaticism as the hallmark of APEC deliberations, the leaders are expected (1) to focus on the principles of an action plan, leaving aside more difficult issues, (2) to conclude certain “business facilitation” agreements, and (3) to agree to accelerate the implementation of certain Uruguay Round agreements.     

The Japan-Soviet far east trade relationship: A case of the cautious buyer and the overconfident seller

Given Japan’s resource scarcity, the eastern Soviet Union’s wealth of natural resources and dire need for large infusions of investment capital and technology, and the close distance between the two, one would believe that trade between the two countries would be quite sizable. However, the converse is the case, with each country providing no more than 2 percent of the other’s foreign trade. To explain this phenomenon, it is necessary to explore the intrinsic and self-imposed obstacles to expanded Japanese-USSR trade. It turns out that both countries do not pursue trade for mutual advantage but rather seek an entirely different set of ulterior zero-sum motives. The article discusses what would appear to be a natural “fit” between the two countries’ needs and abilities, explores the extensive joint Siberian development projects of the 1960s and 1970s to explain the undesired side effects of Japanese-Soviet trade, details Japanese and Soviet business, government, and economist arguments for and against expanded economic relations, explains the maldevelopment of a resource-extractive versus commodity-producing eastern USSR as a product of climate, labor shortages, investment policies, and a Stalinist-planned system, outlines Japanese desires to accrue political advantages from its trade with the Soviet Union, and predicts the inability of Gorbachev’s economic reforms to truly expand Japanese-Soviet trade at a low cost to its larger geopolitical concerns. Although continuing private Japanese efforts are being made to work out joint venture deals with the USSR (thus belying the notion of a completely consensus-unified “Japan, Inc.”), they are still anomalies. Ultimately, if expanded trade ties are to occur (and indeed it is this article’s contention that they must for the USSR to survive as a superpower), then they must be made on Japan’s terms.     

The PRC,Taiwan, and the overseas Chinese

The rapid growth of China’s economy and its opening to the outside world have attracted a large volume of trade and investment from Hong Kong and Taiwan, creating an economic grouping with a total foreign trade in 1992 almost equal to that of Japan. The economic linkage of this “Greater China” with Southeast Asia’s overseas Chinese communities is steadily growing and will continue to do so for the rest of the decade, barring a sharp drop in the PRC’s growth rate, which seems unlikely.     

Japan’s role in Asia-Pacific cooperation: Dimensions,prospects, and problems

Japan and the United States together have been the dominant economic partners for most other Asia-Pacific countries. However, changes may now swing the balance toward Japan, as it continues to increase bilateral foreign aid to the region, expand its imports from the region, and set up direct investment. Greater Japanese involvement in the region is welcome, but could lead toward a regional bloc centered rather exclusively on Japan. Any such development would not be in the U.S. national interest, and both nations need to follow policies that diminish such possibilities and strengthen the multilateral organizations serving the region.     

The world economic pattern in the 1990s and Asia-Pacific economic cooperation

The world economic pattern of the 1990s will have many characteristics. For example: 1) the world economy will tend to move further toward multipolarization and several fairly large regional economic blocs will be formed with these polars as their center; 2) the United States, Japan, and Europe will play a dominant role in the new world economic pattern; and 3) the Asia-Pacific economies will be the most vigorous part of the world economy. Since the 1980s, with the development of the internationalization of the world economy and regional integration, Asia-Pacific economic cooperation has entered into a new period. However, it is very difficult to form a close entity of economic cooperation (such as the EC) including the whole Asia-Pacific region. Perhaps it is more practical to found a subregional economic cooperative body, such as a “Northeast Asian economic sphere,” in the near future. This article was originally prepared for a roundtable conference on “Economic Issues in the Northwest Pacific: Perspectives in a Dramatically Changing World,” held December 14–16, 1990, in Oiso, Japan. The cosponsors of the conference were Taisho Research Institute, the Japan Economic Foundation, and The American Council on Asian and Pacific Affairs.     

亚太经合组织中区域利益和成员利益的冲突与协调——APEC成立十周年回顾与展望

亚太经合组织（ＡＰＥＣ） 是区域利益的代表。作为成员利益的集中体现,ＡＰＥＣ 的区域利益主要由贸易投资自由化和经济技术合作两大部分组成。由于发达成员和发展中成员在以上两个方面有不同的利益追求,ＡＰＥＣ 中区域利益和成员利益一直存在着冲突。在过去的十年中,贸易投资自由化和经济技术合作的不平衡发展使这种冲突逐渐表面化。展望未来,ＡＰＥＣ 的持续发展有赖于成员经济体享有充分灵活性的基础上,通过协商一致,处理好发达成员和发展中成员的利益分歧     

Agricultural trade liberalization and the APEC process

The liberalization of agricultural trade in the Asia-Pacific region is important to the relatively efficient, low-cost exporters of farm commodities that are participating in the APEC process. While the Uruguay Round negotiations succeeded, for the first time, in extending the GATT trade liberalizing process to agriculture, the agreement was modest. Japan and Korea were allowed more time in which to prepare for the opening of their markets. But the farm-support policies of both are destroying their agricultures. The sooner they are changed, as those of Taiwan have been changed, the better it will be for the Japanese and Korean economies—for consumers, public finances, land prices, and the farmers who remain. Among his many writings on agricultural policy, he is author of the seminal wookWorld Agriculture in Disarray (Macmillan and St. Martin’s Press, 1973 and 1992).     

Trilateral trade relations among China,Japan and South Korea: Challenges and prospects of regional economic integration

China’s emergence as a global and regional manufacturing center has significant implications for the Northeast Asian economies of Japan and South Korea. China's trade with Japan and South Korea has been rapidly growing in relative importance, largely facilitated by China's rise as a regional production base as well as changes in the trade structures between China and her neighbours. Indeed, in recent years, China has been the main driving force behind Northeast Asian trade interdependency. The strong economic linkages and complementarities among China, Japan and South Korea augur well for the further integration among the three Northeast Asian countries. Establishing a trilateral free trade arrangement (FTA) provide new opportunities to enhance the three countries’ overall growth potential through trade and investment. However, such Northeast Asian regional integration is destined to be a long, drawn out process. The forging of a trilateral trading arrangement between China and her two neighbours remain a long term vision in view of the many outstanding issues and obstacles.     

从应对贸易摩擦到预防经济脱钩:2019年中国经济外交形势分析

2019年,中国经济外交在严峻的国际经济环境中负重前行,取得了一系列进展。首先,以建设性姿态与美国展开经贸谈判,最终在年底达成中美第一阶段贸易协议,避免了中美经贸关系的进一步恶化。其次,积极加大对欧洲、日本、俄罗斯以及东南亚等主要经济体的经济外交,推动国际经济合作,力促RCEP完成谈判。这些努力在一定程度上化解了中美贸易战带来的负面影响。第三,中国的"带路"外交进入机制化建设的新阶段,尤其是新建立的"一带一路"新闻与智库交流机制得到各方积极响应。展望2020年,中美经贸关系依然错综复杂,WTO改革压力重重,欧洲和日本等主要经济体对中国的疑虑可能会进一步发酵,中国经济外交依旧充满挑战。     

大国博弈、双层均势的亚洲时刻--俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦的认知与政策立场

俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦有着独特的认知和期待,并与克里姆林宫的官方立场互为表里。总体上,俄方智库的观点是,在经贸摩擦的背后,是中美两国对军事、政治、科技、地区和全球领导权的竞争;两国的国内议程和对外政策,将因此受到深远影响并产生溢出效应--在亚洲区域内形成两极结构。即使两国会因国内和国际政治因素,在经贸问题上达成妥协,但中方不会放弃获得世界科技领导者的雄心,美方也不会打消遏制中国发展动能的战略意图。俄罗斯应与中国继续保持经济与军事合作,避免与美国和西方关系的继续恶化,并在亚太地区推动"大欧亚伙伴关系"倡议。俄罗斯政策分析界基于自身利益的演绎,将中美经贸摩擦定性为大国博弈,相应的政策建议反映出俄罗斯以在全球和亚洲分别制衡美中为目标的双层均势策略。俄罗斯将在有亚洲其他国家参与的情景下扮演战略平衡手角色,借中美全面对抗之势,在中美俄三边关系之外扭转不利的外部发展环境。俄罗斯对亚太国际局势的盘活作用,将催生双边和三边竞合新模式的建立。     

日本研究开发投资现状与存在问题及启示

本文研究发现，在“科技立国”政策背景下，日本研发投资居发达国家首位，但全要素生产率增长率有所下降。其根本的原因是日本研发投资成果没有得到有效利用，最终造成研发投资成果质量水平较低、专利市场的占有率有下降趋势、高科技产业附加价值收益、国际市场份额及贸易收支比下降等问题。应采取强化基础研究、充实对服务业的研究开发、发挥大学和政府的作用、推进企业、大学及政府协作、强化国际合作、确立和保护知识产权和强化知识管理等措施才有可能改变其被动局面。     

Importance of infegrating China and Taiwan into the WTO system

Integrating China and Taiwan into the world economy through accession to the World Trade Organization should contribute to stability in the Asia-Pacific region as well as promote further economic development in the two economies. Taiwan’s export-oriented growth has made it a major trader in the world economy, the fourteenth largest by 1995, and it has shifted from being a net receiver of foreign direct investment to being a net exporter of private capital. Strong trading and investment relationships among overseas Chinese have made a significant difference in the economies of South and East Asia and are now contributing to China’s development. There is a need though for an institutional structure in which to address the bilateral and multilateral dimensions of growing economic relations between China and Taiwan.     

Asia’s Security Triangles: Maritime Minilateralism in the Indo-Pacific

Since the early years of the twenty-first century, a number of key regional governments have consciously chosen to alter the way they talk about the region, and have now largely shifted from using the ‘Asia-Pacific’ to the ‘Indo-Pacific’ construct. But after three decades of utilising the ‘Asia-Pacific’ concept, why has this been the case and how might this shift in geographical conceptualisation alter the strategic framework of the region? This paper argues that the ‘Indo-Pacific’ is a regional reconceptualisation utilised by Japan, Australia, India and the USA to address deficiencies in Asia’s maritime security and institutional architecture, which are being simultaneously influenced by a more assertive Chinese posture and waning U.S. influence. Additionally, the Indo-Pacific concept has developed in tandem with a transformation in the regional security architecture. The utilisation of maritime minilateralism between Japan, India, Australia and the USA supplements Asia’s bilateral American alliances, with an array of trilateral security dialogues or ‘security triangles’. The Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific shift is really an instance of an emerging minilateral security regionalism, rather than the predominant forms of bilateral and multilateral security and economic regionalism that have dominated Asia in recent decades.