A spatial model of legislative voting with perceptual error

This paper presents a unidimensional spatial model of voting in which members of Congress vote based on an imprecise perception of roll-call alternatives. The model is applied to the Senate roll-call votes of 1977 to estimate the ideal points of the senators, and to examine the role of a liberal-conservative dimension in describing votes on economic issues relative to social issues. In light of the spatial model, the paper argues that “standard” models of roll-call voting are not based on a theory of choice, and hence, that it is difficult to interpret their results. Alternatives to standard models, based on the spatial model, are developed and are used to analyze the role of ideology in deciding a specific economic issue: coal strip-mining.     

二元论的逻辑错误

从使用人工语言表示一个一元论或二元论观点入手,首先,在一阶逻辑上定义"归元谓词",并使用集合的观点改写其表达式;其次,运用"归元谓词"定义一元论和二元论,并指出二元论的逻辑错误;然后将以上观点运用于对一个实例的分析,即对试图使用哥德尔定理反驳强人工智能观点的工作加以反驳;最后得出结论:讨论"世界本原"问题是无意义的,一个一元论仅仅是在承认空集存在的意义上被我们接受。     

The extension method to calculate the error of industrial structure

The industrial structure shows the service efficiency of economic resources and the rationality of its development. It has been one of the important works for governments to calculate the error of industrial structure and adjust it. The dependent function is the core of extension set, which shows the extent of objective property, and explains the easiness to be variated quantitatively or qualitatively. By using the dependent degree, the error of industrial structure shows not only the magnitude but also the easiness to correct it, then the decision-makers can discriminate the difficulty of industrial adjustment and select the emphasis, and the orientation of adjustment may be clearer and the operation may be more maneuverable. The paper analyzes the orientation to adjust the industrial structure and proposes some simple suggestions by using the calculation results.     

容错纠错机制的马克思主义哲学意蕴

容错纠错机制是党中央在马克思主义哲学的指导下,为激励新时代改革创新中担当有为的干部而提出来的,具有丰富的哲学内涵。容错纠错机制中蕴含着马克思主义哲学的世界观和方法论,同时又具有显著的时代特色、中国特色,是我们党运用马克思主义哲学在治国理政中的又一创新。     

走出预防和惩治腐败体系中的制度问题误区

惩治和预防腐败要“更加注重治本,更加注重预防,更加注重制度建设,做到惩治和预防两手抓、两手都要硬”,这是党在多年来反腐败斗争中不断探索得出的规律性结论,也是建立健全惩治和预防腐败体系的精要所在。学习贯彻党的十七届四中全会精神,深入实践落实科学发展观,全面、系统、完整、准确地把握制度的内涵,进而推动惩治和预防腐败体系中的制度建设协调、可持续发展,是深化反腐倡廉制度建设的基础和关键。     

论金朝迁都开封的战略失误

金朝迁都开封是由于军事失败和败军之将把持朝政,而金宣宗个人才能平庸作出的决策,它导致领土的丧失和财政、军事的困境,导致金朝一蹶不振。其合理对策应是固守中都或者退守上京。     

Proxy documents as a source of measurement error in the Comparative Manifestos Project

This paper considers the issue of document type diversity in the Comparative Manifestos Project (CMP). For many years the CMP has been collecting and coding a variety of documents, such as speeches, pamphlets, newspaper articles and leaflets, as manifesto proxies. By using previously unexplored archival material to perform controlled comparisons between different types of documents, this paper argues that the coding of such documents introduced considerable measurement error to party position estimates. Statistical analyses indicate that this measurement error is systematic rather than random as it is often manifested as centrist bias in parties' left–right position estimates. Consequently, the paper argues that random error correction methods cannot always correct for error attributed to the coding of proxy documents. The paper concludes with some recommendations for third-party users of the CMP data and documents and a plea to the CMP research team.     

Measuring error for adjacent policy position estimates: Dealing with uncertainty using CMP data

Careful users of CMP party position data should take the uncertainty of position estimates into account. We compare and evaluate two current approaches that provide error estimates for party positions. Researchers of the CMP group identify measurement error in quantitative content analysis as the cause of uncertainty about position estimates, whereas a second approach by Benoit et al. (2009) attributes the uncertainty of position estimates to a stochastic generation of election programs. We illustrate the commonalities and differences of these approaches and provide two empirical applications, the identification of the left–right order of parties and of policy shifts by parties, using CMP data for 25 countries. Despite conceptual differences, results in these applications are surprisingly similar.     

Affirmative action,duality of error,and the consequences of mispredicting the academic performance of african american college applicants

The implications of different potential affirmative action policies depend on three factors: selection rate from the applicant pool, base rate of qualified applicants, and accuracy of performance predictions. A series of analyses was conducted under various assumptions concerning affirmative action plans, causes of racial differences in average college admissions test scores, and racial differences in accuracy of performance predictions. Evidence suggesting a lower level of predictive accuracy for African Americans implies that, under a program of affirmative action, both proportionately more false positives (matriculated students who do not succeed) and proportionately more false negatives (rejected applicants who could have succeeded) will be found among African American applicants. Unless equivalent levels of predictive accuracy are achieved for both groups, no admission policy can be fair simultaneously to majority group applicants and African American applicants. © 2002 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

The relationship between corruption and income inequality in U.S. states: evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model

We investigate the causality between corruption and income inequality within a multivariate framework using a panel data set of all 50 U.S. states over the period 1980 to 2004. The heterogeneous panel cointegration test by Pedroni (Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat. 61:653–670, 1999; Econom. Theory 20:597–627, 2004) indicates that in the long run corruption and the unemployment rate have a positive and statistically significant impact on income inequality while a negative impact is found for real personal income per capita, education, and unionization rate. The Granger-causality results associated with a panel vector error correction model indicate both short-run and long-run bidirectional causality between corruption and income inequality.     

作为复杂意识体的“人类命运共同体”意识初探

作为复杂意识体的“人类命运共同体”意识,由两大类别或层面构成:社会心理层面的“人类命运共同体”意识和社会意识形式层面的“人类命运共同体”意识。前者是作为复杂意识体的“人类命运共同体”意识的文化心理基础,是直接连接这一复杂意识体与现实世界的桥梁,并为社会意识形式层面的“人类命运共同体”意识输送“素材”和“原始动力”,以及决定其起积极作用的程度和其传播的速度和深度,影响其走向。后者是作为复杂意识体的“人类命运共同体”意识的“升华”部分,直接标示着这一复杂意识体的水准;它具有以理论化、系统化、定型化的形式自觉引导现实世界,在越来越大的程度上实现“人类以相互包容为基础的共生共存共赢共享共担当共发展的可持续性趋势”的功能,并推动社会心理层面的“人类命运共同体”意识的发展,使其发挥持续和稳定的作用,规定其发展方向。这两者间的区别和联系,显示了作为复杂意识体的“人类命运共同体”意识,其内部的差异和矛盾,以及其存在与发展的规律和特点。从逻辑上看,如果不能全面、正确地认识和把握作为复杂意识体的“人类命运共同体”意识这两大层面间的区别和联系,那么不仅会使对“人类命运共同体”意识的研究走入歧途,而且也会损害“共同构建人类命运共同体”的伟大事业。