Capital Mobility and Current Account Imbalance: Nonlinear Threshold Vector Autoregression Approach

In this study, we utilize the growth rate of gross domestic product as the threshold variable to construct two nonlinear threshold vector autoregression models to re-examine the findings in Yan (2007 Yan, Ho-Don. 2007. Does Capital Mobility Finance or Cause a Current Account Imbalance?. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 47(1): 1–25. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]:23) that “current account imbalance causes capital mobility in developed countries; capital mobility causes current account imbalance in emerging countries.” The nonlinear causality test shows that the findings of Yan (2007 Yan, Ho-Don. 2007. Does Capital Mobility Finance or Cause a Current Account Imbalance?. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 47(1): 1–25. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) can exist only in certain regimes and the primary factor that affects the causality between current account and financial account (and its components of foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and other investment) is the asymmetry caused by the business cycle.     

百年间国际政治经济秩序的转型压力——资本流动、产业——金融联系与自由秩序

当前,新自由主义国际秩序遭遇来自美国国内的严重冲击。这与一百年前,古典自由主义国际秩序遭遇来自英国国内的冲击十分类似。为何在一百年间,英美两国均遭遇国内对国际秩序的严重冲击?本文指出,各国不同的产业-金融联系是一项关键前情。在解除对资本跨国流动的管制后,英美两国疏远的产业-金融联系加剧了资本跨国流动带来的问题。由于缺乏国内利益纽带约束,能够用脚投票的英美两国资本生产意愿降低;相对当地政府以及普通民众的议价能力提升。资本分得更多的经济份额。由贫富分化引发的政治问题日益凸显。理性的政治家利用国内分化的政治结构,动员国内民众,给自由国际秩序构成巨大压力。与英美不同,德国等有着紧密产业-金融联系的国家,即便面临资本全球化浪潮,国内冲击自由秩序的压力相对较小。基于其政治经济安排的特点,中国能为维护国际秩序做出积极贡献。     

哥伦比亚资本项目开放与1993～1998年资本管制有效性研究

资本项目开放是20世纪90年代初哥伦比亚经济稳定计划的重要组成部分,其开放进程分两个阶段:第一阶段主要是针对外国直接投资的开放,第二阶段是放松对短期资本和外资信贷的管制.在资本项目开放初期,国际资本大量流入,使哥伦比亚经济面临真实汇率升值、金融体系对外脆弱性加重和通货膨胀压力加大等多重挑战.为应对这些挑战,哥伦比亚货币当局借鉴智利的成功经验,于1993一1998年实行了无息准备金制度和显性托宾税等一系列资本管制措施.这些措施在一定程度上实现了控制资本流入规模和短期资本长期化的政策目标,但同时也增加了国内企业的融资成本.     

20世纪90年代以来巴西资本项目开放与资本管制有效性研究

历史经验表明,与阿根廷和墨西哥相比,巴西经济改革从来都不是激进改革的典范,20世纪90年代卡多佐政府的改革也不例外,其实行的谨慎资本项目开放是巴西渐进经济改革的重要内容,具体体现为在改革的方向和目标确立后,在面临开放之初大规模资本流入导致的货币升值、金融脆弱性剧增等问题的情况下,货币当局实施了金融交易税、外资贷款期限和外资投资范围的直接管制等措施,来限制国际资本的过度流入.然而.由于巴西过高的国内外利差、发达的金融衍生市场形成的诸多规避资本管制渠道,这些管制措施并没有达到预期的目标.     

Labour markets,employment, and the transformation of war economies

Although many different analyses in some ways acknowledge the relevance of labour markets to the political economy of violent conflict and of war to peace transitions, there has been little sustained or systematic exploration of this dimension of war economies and post-conflict reconstruction. This paper highlights the empirical and analytical gaps and suggests that a framework departing from the assumptions of the liberal interpretation of war allows for a richer analysis of labour market issues and policies. This is illustrated by the history of rural Mozambique through the war economy and into the first post-war decade.     

试析教育与拉美中产阶级的代际流动性

位于收入中间阶段的拉美中等家庭部门的教育水平为接受部分的中等教育,并基本就读公立学校。其教育的代际相关性较强,教育流动性甚至低于贫困和富裕家庭部门。由于中等教育贬值,且公立教育质量低,其教育回报率与初等教育相差无几,而与高等教育相去甚远。因此,中等家庭部门在就业和劳动收入方面处于非常不利的地位,代际流动性低,代际收入地位的复制性在加强。这证明了布劳、邓肯所认定的教育与代际流动性密切相关的结论。各国应通过增加基础教育公共投资并向中低收入者倾斜、延长义务教育年限、发展职业培训等措施改善这一状况。     

Negative Capital and the Wealth of Nations

The so-called global economy has generated tremendous international wealth inequality that only increases as globalization deepens. This process is capped by the failure of classical economic theory to incorporate such free market externalities as negative capital . Negative capital can be defined as situations, events, or environmental conditions that degrade or threaten to degrade the standard of living or life expectancy of great numbers of persons, including those living in wealthy nations. These problems cut across issues of sovereignty and security, economic development, and the environment. They can be monetized and have value because the rich will have to pay in order to mitigate them, whether at home or abroad. Payment can take many forms, but it will involve a politics of redistribution. Negative capital is a systemic phenomenon "in nature" without which the classical economic theory is both incomplete and notably ideological. A tamed and therefore enlightened free market, that recognizes and addresses negative capital, may be better equipped to resolve the situations created by its inherent inadequacies.     

The Rotten Carrot: US-Turkish Bargaining Failure over Iraq in 2003 and the Pitfalls of Social Embeddedness

Side-payments are commonly used in international relations to alter the foreign policies of states. Despite their frequent usage, however, our understanding is very limited as to why certain side-payment negotiations succeed, while others fail. This article tries to remedy this shortcoming. It argues that social embeddedness between actors involved in the negotiations has a major bearing on bargaining outcomes. Under ideal circumstances, social relationships can be used to reduce information asymmetries and increase trust. But in the presence of fractured social networks, social ties can foster information bias and distrust, ultimately increasing the likelihood of bargaining failure. The US-Turkish bargaining failure over the Iraq intervention in 2003 is used to illustrate and test this theory.     

资本全球化与中东恐怖主义

全球化的本质是资本的全球化 ,而资本全球化的过程是在国别资本的状态下进行的 ,因此不可避免会引起国际矛盾和斗争。资本的本性及其推动科学技术应用于工业领域的趋势 ,必然对传统的社会政治、经济、文化、宗教信仰造成冲击 ,从而引发各种矛盾冲突 ,中东地区的恐怖主义就是表现形式之一。中东是伊斯兰宗教文化传统浓厚的地区 ,同时又是石油资源最丰富的地区 ,因此 ,资本全球化带来的矛盾也就更加突出。中东地区的恐怖主义是资本全球化时代的必然产物 ,最终也将被资本全球化所根除     

Interwar Internationalism, the British Labour Party, and the Historiography of International Relations

This article questions two interrelated myths pertaining to the interwar internationalism of the British Labour Party and the theories of so-called idealists in the academic discipline of International Relations (IR). In IR, interwar "idealists" are (in)famous for a detached and utopian approach to international politics. Conventional historiographical verdicts on the international policy of the Labour Party in the interwar period suggest that the party was the practical mirror of this naïve international outlook. In fact, the two themes are connected, most notably through Labour's Advisory Committee on International Questions . This article brings the study of Labour's internationalism and the international theories of purported idealists together by focusing on debates on the League of Nations and the use of force. The analysis reveals that conventional historiographical narratives are inadequate and too simplistic for grasping the diversity of Labour's internationalism and interwar progressivist ideas about international politics in general.     

Social Media Social Capital,Offline Social Capital,and Citizenship: Exploring Asymmetrical Social Capital Effects

In pursuit of a healthier and participatory democracy, scholars have long established the positive effects of social capital, values derived from resources embedded in social ties with others which characterize the structure of opportunity and action in communities. Today, social media afford members of digital communities the ability to relate in new ways. In these contexts, the question that arises is whether new forms of social capital associated with the use of social media are a mere extension of traditional social capital or if they are in fact a different construct with a unique and distinct palette of attributes and effects. This study introduces social media social capital as a new conceptual and empirical construct to complement face-to-face social capital. Based on a two-wave panel data set collected in the United States, this study tests whether social capital in social media and offline settings are indeed two distinct empirical constructs. Then, the article examines how these two modes of social capital may relate to different types of citizenship online and offline. Results show that social media social capital is empirically distinct from face-to-face social capital. In addition, the two constructs exhibit different patterns of effects over online and offline political participatory behaviors. Results are discussed in light of theoretical developments in the area of social capital and pro-democratic political engagement.     

资本项目自由化与金融安全的政治

资本项目自由化引发人们对金融安全的考虑。不同国家在面临"三元悖论"时,可做出的选择存在很大差异。美国抵御金融危机,维护金融安全的能力要比其他国家更强。这是因为庞大的市场容量是美国国家权力的重要构成,使其在"三元悖论"中比其他国家有更多的选项,进而能更好地维护金融安全。由于实施资本项目自由化,在亚洲金融危机期间,泰国、印度尼西亚、韩国以及俄罗斯既无法选择固定汇率,也无法维护货币政策的自主性,危及金融安全。马来西亚选择管制资本,遏制了危机蔓延,维护了金融安全。在当前,中国应优先选择固定汇率与自主的货币政策,以维护金融安全。     

巴塞尔委员会及巴塞尔协议

（一）巴塞尔委员会的成立。20世纪70年代以来，全球经济一体化的趋势不断加强，金融领域的创新活动日渐活跃，促使各国金融当局纷纷调整了对银行业的监督管理政策。同时，在国际上，跨国银行开始扮演越来越重要的角色，为了避免银行危机的连锁反应，统一国际银行监管的建议被提上了议事日程。     

EU Actorness in the International Labour Organization: Comparing Declaratory and Voting Cohesion

This article presents data on the voting records of the European Union (EU) Member States and the frequency of EU common statements in both technical (standard-setting) and political (scrutiny) issues in the International Labour Organization (ILO) between 1973 and 2007. By contrasting voting cohesion to declaratory cohesion, it advances the literature by demonstrating that contrary to theoretically informed predictions, political coordination is more successful than technical coordination. It explores the reasons for this through an analysis of different forms of actorness, namely the opportunity to act within the ILO, the presence of the EU through its Member States, and the capability of the policy-making apparatus to produce cohesive outputs. It concludes that the socialisation of Geneva-based diplomats is the most important variable explaining the relative success of political coordination, while the unfamiliarity of seconded national officials to Geneva with EU coordination explains the reduced effectiveness of technical cooperation.     

莱索托的外资引进及未来挑战

近年来 ,大量外资进入莱索托。该国之所以能够大量吸引外资首先得益于有利的国际条件 :我国台湾省的大量企业进入莱索托 ,为莱制造业的发展打下基础 ;《洛美协定》对莱特殊优惠政策促进了外资进入莱索托 ;纺织业国际营销网络为莱纺织品出口创造了有利条件 ;《非洲增长与机遇法案》的实施成为外资进入莱索托的新推动力。同时 ,莱索托国内政治环境以及经济和社会制度也有利于吸引外资进入。然而从长远来看 ,优惠贸易条件的逐渐丧失使莱索托出口竞争力下降 ;同时莱索托国内引资体系尚不成熟 ,税务政策和运输制度依然不尽合理 ,土地市场发展很不完善 ,劳动力优势也逐渐丧失。这些问题都可能影响今后莱索托出口导向产业的发展和外资引进     

印度尼西亚华人及其资本发展现状

印度尼西亚是东南亚地区华人数量最多的国家,由于历史原因,华人在印尼大多从商。本文以印尼官方公布的数据和部分权威统计资料为主要依据,对印尼华人和华商资本数量进行推估,指出印尼华人约达1000万,华商资本达1638亿美元。自1980年印尼政府放宽华侨入籍条件后,绝大部分印尼华侨通过入籍成为印尼公民,而华侨经济也自然演变为华人经济,成为印尼国民经济的重要组成部分。但目前印尼华商资本仍面临诸多困境,发展前景不容乐观。     

Capital and the state system: a class act

This paper is set up as a critique of Alex Callinicos's Callinicos, Alex. 2007. Does capitalism need the state system?. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 20(4): 533–549. [Taylor & Francis Online] [Google Scholar] contribution, ‘Does capitalism need the state system?’ It challenges his understanding of the relationship between capitalism and the state system and the theory of imperialism, before presenting an alternative view that conceives the connection between capitalism and the state system as embodied in the formation of a transnational capitalist class holding power in an English-speaking, liberal Atlantic core or ‘heartland’, facing a series of ‘contender states’, which developed under state auspices. This constellation has to be analysed in its own right by applying the method of historical materialism to it, rather than confining that method to the analysis of capital and then bringing in state-centric International Relations. Today, the rise of China as the new contender illustrates how the combined process has evolved. The response to China comes from the larger constellation of the West and not just from the United States: the capitalist class acts to ensure the sovereignty of capital in the process.     

二战前英属马来亚印度劳工的政治生活简析

从20世纪初开始,马来亚印度人的民族主义逐渐兴起,一方面表现在印度人希望获得马来亚的公民权,但更多地体现在印度劳工希望殖民统治者给予他们公平、合理的待遇。然而,印度人温和合理的政治诉求遭到殖民当局的拒绝,因此他们采取了更为激进的罢工。罢工的失败促使印度人争取祖国印度独立自由的民族主义情绪的高涨,进而在日据时期掀起了一场较有声势的独立运动。日据时期的马来亚印度人的独立运动是一场无果而终的民族解放运动,也是一场失败的民族主义运动,但这场独立运动具有一定的正义性。     

从比较的视角看海外移民的流动性对中国的影响

在经济全球化发展日趋增强的今天,移民活动的状况或本质正越来越表现为流动性而非定居性。移民的流动性,是“人权高于主权”这一国际政治思潮的反映,是全球化发展所产生的一种“跨国逃避”趋势,也是国际政治经济多元化、不平衡发展和各国综合国力竞争的必然产物。本文试图通过对移民流动性的探讨,揭示中印两国海外移民的流动性对两国发展和综合国力提升所共同具有的有益影响,以及中印两国因其海外移民流动性在国际社会中所面临的不同处境。