Graduation and Deepening: An Ambitious Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenario

In the second commitment period 2013–2017, the Kyoto Protocol structure is strengthened considerably. The current Annex B countries agree to reduction targets averaging 23% reductions from 1990 level. This induces non-Annex B countries to take up emissions targets according to a multi-tiered graduation system. Graduation is undertaken according to thresholds defined by per capita GDP and emissions. Compared to the current Annex B, coverage of emissions by absolute caps would increase by about 25%; large low-income countries such as India and China do not graduate. Therefore, large emitters above 50 million t. p.a. can utilise a policy-based Clean Development Mechanism. Sinks of all types – terrestrial, marine and geological can be used. To achieve this policy scenario, voter pressure due to extreme meteorological events and a coordination of all progressive forces in the international climate negotiations are necessary. Moreover, a judicious combination of carrots and sticks has to be developed to entice Non-Annex B countries to graduate.     

The Bali Road Map: Can it Deliver an Equitable Post-2012 Climate Agreement for Small Island States?

The ambition and architecture of the post-2012 climate change regime will be critical to the survival of many small island developing nations, many of which are low-lying, vulnerable to the impacts of sea-level rise and exposed to increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather events. This paper highlights the key outcomes sought by the Alliance of Small Island States in the international negotiating process on the post-2012 regime and compares these calls with what has been achieved thus far. The paper concludes that while little progress has been made to date, useful avenues for progress do exist if only the political will can be found.     

The Future Climate Regime: A Regional Comparison of Proposals

This paper compares and clarifies differences revealed in proposals from different regions on a future multilateral climate regime, after the year 2012. More than 100 articles in English were collected, categorized according to the lead authors region, and then reviewed to identify the general tendencies of each region. Proposals on emission allocation rules were the most popular in Europe, while rules related to international emissions trading dominated proposals from the United States. Few articles came from other Annex I countries, but these generally provided only the most basic aspects of a future regime. Meanwhile, concerns for equity and the relevance of any new regime in terms of sustainable development were clear in proposals from non-Annex I countries. Differences among regions were considered to be a reflection of current circumstances in each authors region. The capacity and culture of authors in some regions were considered to be other possible factors in differences. The paper concludes that recognition of regional background that formulate respective preferences and concerns regarding a future climate regime will be important to help reach a multilateral agreement in future official negotiations.     

Enforcing the Climate Regime: Game Theory and the Marrakesh Accords

This article reviews basic insights about compliance and "hard" enforcement that can be derived from various non-cooperative equilibrium concepts, and evaluates the Marrakesh Accords in light of these insights. Five different notions of equilibrium are considered – the Nash equilibrium, the subgame perfect equilibrium, the renegotiation proof equilibrium, the coalition proof equilibrium, and the perfect Bayesian equilibrium. These various types of equilibrium have a number of implications for effective enforcement: (1) Consequences of non-compliance should be more than proportionate. (2) Punishment needs to take place on the Pareto frontier, rather than by reversion to some suboptimal state. (3) An effective enforcement system must be able to curb collective as well as individual incentives to cheat. (4) A fully transparent enforcement regime is not unconditionally a good thing. It is concluded that constructing an effective system for "hard" enforcement of the Kyoto Protocol is a formidable task that has only partially been accomplished by the Marrakesh Accords. In practice, however, the design of the compliance system for the climate regime had to balance a desire to minimize non-compliance against other important goals, including the need for due process.     

Emissions Rights and their Transferability: Equity Concerns over Climate Change Mitigation

Existing literature on equity considerations for climate change mitigation has largely focused on fair burden-sharing at an inter-national level without adequate attention to equity concerns at the intra-national level. However, disparities between regions and income groups within nations pose perhaps more equity concerns over climate change mitigation than those between nations. While international equity can be agreed upon via political negotiation among nations, the poor in both developed and developing countries may not be guaranteed their fair allocation of emissions rights because the necessary institutional framework has yet to be established at both international and national levels. This paper distinguishes three parts of emissions rights and discusses their transferability in view of equity concerns. The author suggests that basic necessity emissions rights are not transferable and non-necessity emissions are fully marketable, while individual contributions to state are subject to collective decision-making or political manipulation at the international level. The exact share of each of the three parts is subject to further investigation, but unlimited free trading of emissions rights is likely to result in equity concerns at both inter- and intra-national levels. Further examination in quantitative terms would represent an interesting case study for a better understanding of the issue.     

Outlook for the International Climate Policy Regime– Revolution or Reform?

International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics -     

Orchestra of Treaties: A Future Climate Regime Scenario with Multiple Treaties among Like-minded Countries

The Orchestra of Treaties scenario emerges if countries share the following principles for re-building the climate regime (1) recognize the sovereignty concerns attending energy policies; (2) build upon national interests in technology and development; (3) avoid conflicts and enhance cooperation by appropriately framing core issues; and (4) address not only short-term emission cuts but also long-term technological change.In this scenario, countries will share these principles by drawing on the hard lessons of past UNFCCC negotiations. The framing of the climate change problem as the allocation of emission quota created an adversarial style of negotiation that resulted in distrust among countries. Moreover, the negotiations have been characterized by unpredictable outcomes. Since energy policies were deemed as sovereignty concerns, countries did not want to put such issues on the agenda to avoid a potentially intrusive outcome. This negotiation style brought about shortcomings of the Kyoto Protocol and may lead to a stalemate in future negotiations.The scenario captures the dynamics that emerge when multiple efforts are pursued by flexible coordination of actors motivated through diverse incentives. The emerging regime, the Orchestra of Treaties, will consist of four building blocks, of which three grow outside of UNFCCC.

在合作与发展之间:国际气候体制构建的难题

有效的国际气候体制安排是解决气候变化问题的最佳途径。气候变化与发展的冲突是国际气候体制构建中的核心张力,负担的分配与公平、率先减排的利弊得失以及不确定的发展进程都会影响国家参与气候体制的意愿。国家制度惯性以及国家转制的代价则是制约国际气候体制构建的瓶颈。唯有通过发展中国家的发展、政府的智能型决策以及人类生活方式的改变,将发展融入气候变化问题之中,国际社会才可能逐渐走出气候治理方法和手段上的僵局,构建起有效的国际气候体制。     

The Climate Change Regime: An Enviro-Economic Problem and International Administrative Law in the Making

The climate change problem, or global warming, has gained a prominent place on the international political agenda, since the mid-1980s, when it first attracted political attention. The problem was initially perceived mainly as an environmental problem that could be resolved by technological solutions, its current perception, this essay argues, is best characterized as that of an enviro-economic problem. A perception that is exemplified by the ongoing negotiations for the development of economic mechanisms to tackle the problem. The climate change arena is a complex one, involving dichotomies between developed and developing countries, between fossil fuel producing and importing countries and between small island developing states and other states. This essay outlines the interests that play a role in the climate change negotiations and discusses the international climate change regime as contained in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol. It concludes that the climate change negotiations are complicated by the fact that the negotiators, in addition to developing new substantive rules for a complex problem, are involved in developing new systemic rules for the international legal system. These new systemic rules have more in common with rules of national systems of public or administrative law than with traditional rules of international law, which have many similarities with national systems of contract law.     

加强国际法对气候变化安全威胁的应对：减缓、适应、资金与技术援助

气候变化引发的安全威胁是国际社会必须正视和应对的大问题。应对这个问题必须通过国际法形式。本文从传统安全威胁和非传统安全威胁两个角度分析了气候变化可能引发的问题,阐述在国际公法、国际经济法、国际贸易法、国际金融法、知识产权国际保护等领域应如何全面、及时、有效地应对气候变化及其安全威胁,指出在这个问题上各国的共识与博弈。     

Due Diligence Obligations of Conduct: Developing a Responsibility Regime for PMSCs

Abstract

As non-state actors, PMSCs are not embraced by traditional state-dominated doctrines of international law. However, international law has itself failed to keep pace with the evolution of states and state-based actors, to which strong Westphalian notions of sovereignty are no longer applicable. It is argued that these structural inadequacies stand in the way of international regulation of PMSCs, rather than defects in international human rights and humanitarian law per se. By analyzing understandings of legal responsibility, where such structural issues come to the fore, it is argued that, rather than attempting to resolve the essentially ideological dispute about the inherent functions of a state, regulatory regimes should focus on the positive obligations of states and PMSCs, and the interactions between them. Applying the results of this analysis, current and proposed regulatory regimes are evaluated and their shortcomings revealed.     

Up Against a Wall: Europe's Options for Regulating Biotechnology through Regulatory Anarchy

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