Expanding the focus of correctional evaluations beyond recidivism: the impact of halfway houses on public safety

Objective

This article reports the findings of a quasi-experimental evaluation of the impact of residential halfway houses (HHs) on public safety in the immediate vicinity of the facilities.

Methods

Instead of focusing on recidivism reduction or cost effectiveness, as is common, outcome measures for this study are limited to the impact on community crime rates, here defined as offenses committed within 1/8 and 1/4 mi radii around a subject facility. A set of fixed effect Poisson regression models were employed to assess the changes in monthly crime counts associated with the opening or closing of an HH (N =?19). A second difference-in-differences analysis (DiD) compares HHs that ceased operation to HHs that remained consistently open for the duration of the study period. A series of robustness checks were conducted.

Results

We find the presence of an active HH is associated with an increase in crime within the immediate vicinity. We identify significant increases in monthly counts of overall crimes reported to law enforcement, as well as in counts for specific crimes of violence, including assaults and robberies with a firearm; property offenses, such as burglary; and in minor and misdemeanor offenses. A closing of an HH is associated with a decrease in reported crimes.

Conclusions

The location of a community-based correctional facility can have a significant and negative impact on public health, largely through decreased levels of local public safety. Evaluations of residential correctional programs should include indicators of community-level impact in addition to individual-level measures of recidivism, particularly when such programs are clustered in at-risk or vulnerable communities.

     

A quasi-experimental evaluation of the impact of bike-sharing stations on micro-level robbery occurrence

Objectives

To examine if the implementation of bike-sharing stations is linked to robbery occurrence in micro-level street corner units in Cincinnati, OH, USA.

Methods

Propensity score matching was used to select comparison street corner units. The effect of bike-sharing station implementation on robbery occurrence across weekly, biweekly, and monthly observations was estimated using repeated measures multi-level logistic regression models.

Results

Bike-sharing stations did not statistically significantly link to robbery occurrence in immediate or nearby street corner units after implementation.

Conclusions

Numerous explanations consistent with Crime Pattern Theory may explain the null effect of bike-sharing stations on robbery occurrence. Future research should continue to examine how changes in the urban backcloth, such as bike-sharing stations, impact geographic crime patterns.

     

Exploring the Effect of Exposure to Short-Term Solitary Confinement Among Violent Prison Inmates

Objectives

This study tracked the behavior of male inmates housed in the general inmate populations of 70 different prison units from a large southern state. Each of the inmates studied engaged in violent misconduct at least once during the first 2 years of incarceration (n = 3,808). The goal of the study was to isolate the effect of exposure to short-term solitary confinement (SC) as a punishment for their initial act of violent behavior on the occurrence and timing of subsequent misconduct.

Methods

This study relied upon archival longitudinal data and employed a multilevel counterfactual research design (propensity score matching) that involved tests for group differences, event history analyses, and trajectory analyses.

Results

The results suggest that exposure to short-term solitary confinement as a punishment for an initial violence does not appear to play a role in increasing or decreasing the probability, timing, or development future misconduct for this particular group on inmates.

Conclusions

Upon validation, these findings call for continued research and perhaps a dialog regarding the utility of solitary confinement policies under certain contexts. This unique study sets the stage for further research to more fully understand how solitary impacts post-exposure behavior.

     

A long-term follow-up evaluation of the Minnesota High Risk Revocation Reduction reentry program

Objectives

This study examines the effectiveness of the High Risk Revocation Reduction (HRRR) program, a reentry program designed to reduce recidivism among offenders released from Minnesota state prisons.

Methods

Adult male release violators were randomly assigned to a treatment group that received supplemental case planning and access to community service and programs, or to a control group that received standard case management. Survival analysis was used to examine rearrest, reconviction, reincarceration for a new offense, and supervised release revocation.

Results

The results of Cox regression models showed that participation in HRRR significantly reduced the risk of rearrest but had no effect on the other measures of recidivism.

Conclusion

The results provide limited support for the program, although its effectiveness appeared to decline during the second phase of implementation. HRRR also reduced costs; however, the estimated benefits were not robust across all sensitivity analyses.

     

Structural Constraints,Risky Lifestyles,and Repeat Victimization

Objectives

Research indicates that victims who make changes to their risky behavioral routines are better able to avoid being victimized again in the future. Nevertheless, some victims’ abilities to change their behaviors may be limited by what Hindelang et al. in Victims of personal crime: an empirical foundation for a theory of personal victimization. Ballinger, Cambridge (1978) referred to as “structural constraints.” To assess this issue, we determine: (1) whether victims who reside in communities characterized by structural constraints (e.g., concentrated disadvantage) are more likely to continue engaging in risky behaviors (e.g., offending, illicit drug use, and getting drunk) after being victimized; and (2) whether victims who continue to engage in risky lifestyles have an increased likelihood of repeat victimization.

Methods

Ten waves of data (spanning nearly 7 years) from the Pathways to Desistance Study are used, and multilevel models are estimated to examine changes to risky lifestyles and repeat victimization among a subsample of victims.

Results

Findings indicate that community-level structural constraints impose limits on the changes that victims make to their risky lifestyles, and that these changes influence repeat victimization.

Conclusions

We conclude that, in the context of repeat victimization, structural constraints are both real and consequential, and that future theory and research should continue to explore how context shapes and influences victims’ behavioral routines.

     

Does GPS supervision of intimate partner violence defendants reduce pretrial misconduct? Evidence from a quasi-experimental study

Objectives

This research examines the effect global positioning system (GPS) technology supervision has on pretrial misconduct for defendants facing intimate partner violence charges.

Methods

Drawing on data from one pretrial services division, a retrospective quasi-experimental design was constructed to examine failure to appear to court, failure to appear to meetings with pretrial services, and rearrest outcomes between defendants ordered to pretrial GPS supervision and a comparison group of defendants ordered to pretrial supervision without the use of monitoring technology. Cox regression models were used to assess differences between quasi-experimental conditions. To enhance internal validity and mitigate model dependence, we utilized and compared results across four counterfactual comparison groups (propensity score matching, Mahalanobis distance matching, inverse probability of treatment weighting, and marginal mean weighting through stratification).

Results

Pretrial GPS supervision was no more or less effective than traditional, non-technology based pretrial supervision in reducing the risk of failure to appear to court or the risk of rearrest. GPS supervision did reduce the risk of failing to appear to meetings with pretrial services staff.

Conclusions

The results suggest that GPS supervision may hold untapped case management benefits for pretrial probation officers, a pragmatic focus that may be overshadowed by efforts to mitigate the risk of pretrial misconduct. Further, the results contribute to ongoing discussions on bail reform, pretrial practice, and the movement to reduce local jail populations. Although the cost savings are not entirely clear, relatively higher risk defendants can be managed in the community and produce outcomes that are comparable to other defendants. The results also call into question the ability of matching procedures to construct appropriate counterfactuals in an era where risk assessment informs criminal justice decision-making. Weighting techniques outperformed matching strategies.

     

The effect of imprisonment on recommitment: an analysis using exact,coarsened exact,and radius matching with the propensity score

Objectives

This study examines the effect of prison versus community sanctions on recommitment to prison and compares two levels of community supervision, community control (house arrest) and probation, evaluating whether the findings are contingent on the type of matching methods used in the analysis.

Methods

Logistic regression was conducted on unmatched and matched samples. Exact, coarsened exact, and radius-matching procedures were used to create a selection on observables design. Matching variables included current offense, demographics, criminal history, supervision violations, and a rich set of Florida Sentencing Guidelines information culled from an official scoring sheet. Florida judges use this instrument to sentence offenders within the framework of the state determinate sentencing system.

Results

The results show that with exact matching, there is no effect of imprisonment on recommitment, while the other procedures suggest a specific deterrent effect of imprisonment. All four analysis methods showed that offenders under community control are more likely to reoffend than those under normal probation. Analyses between the matched and unmatched prison observations demonstrate that the matched set of prisoners is composed of offenders who have less extensive criminal records and less serious conviction offenses than unmatched offenders regardless of the matching algorithm.

Conclusions

Contrary to a prior analysis of these data, which found a criminogenic effect of prison, a null effect was found using exact matching. Comparing the matching procedures, the more precise the match the less likely there was an effect of prison. However, community control was criminogenic regardless of the matching procedure.

     

Retrieving administrative data to assess long-term outcomes: a case study of the 23-year follow-up of the Milwaukee domestic violence experiment

Objectives

To describe how social scientists, criminal justice practitioners, and administrative agencies collected administrative data to follow-up a criminological experiment after two decades. To make recommendations that will guide similar long-term follow-ups.

Methods

A case study approach describes the processes of and sociological benefits to collecting administrative data to assess criminal justice and life-course outcomes.

Results

While maintaining experimental integrity, we developed, executed, and verified processes to retrieve arrest, mortality, and residential data for the experimental subjects, which enabled us to complete the longest ever follow-up of a criminal justice experiment.

Conclusions

When experiments have policy implications, administrative data may be preferable to survey data for assessing primary effects. Successful social science research can be conducted in conjunction with multiple administrative agencies.

     

The Network Structure of Opioid Distribution on a Darknet Cryptomarket

Objectives

The current study is the first to examine the network structure of an encrypted online drug distribution network. It examines (1) the global network structure, (2) the local network structure, and (3) identifies those vendor characteristics that best explain variation in the network structure. In doing so, it evaluates the role of trust in online drug markets.

Methods

The study draws on a unique dataset of transaction level data from an encrypted online drug market. Structural measures and community detection analysis are used to characterize and investigate the network structure. Exponential random graph modeling is used to evaluate which vendor characteristics explain variation in purchasing patterns.

Results

Vendors’ trustworthiness explains more variation in the overall network structure than the affordability of vendor products or the diversity of vendor product listings. This results in a highly localized network structure with a few key vendors accounting for most transactions.

Conclusions

The results indicate that vendors’ trustworthiness is a better predictor of vendor selection than product diversity or affordability. These results illuminate the internal market dynamics that sustain digital drug markets and highlight the importance of examining how new anonymizing technologies shape global drug distribution networks.

     

The effectiveness of prison for reducing drug offender recidivism: a regression discontinuity analysis

Objectives

An enduring legacy of the 1980s “war on drugs” is the increased use of imprisonment for drug offenders. Advocates anticipated, in part, that prison is more effective than community sanctions in reducing recidivism. Despite the contribution of drug offender incarceration to prison growth nationally, and debates about whether this approach should be curtailed, only limited rigorous research exists that evaluates the effect of imprisonment on drug offender recidivism. To address this gap, this paper uses sentencing and recidivism data from a cohort of individuals convicted of felony drug offenses in Florida to examine the effect of imprisonment—as compared to community sanctions—on recidivism.

Methods

Regression discontinuity analyses are used. These minimize potential selection bias by exogenously assigning cases to conditions based on a rating variable and a cut-off score.

Results

Results indicate that prison has no effect on drug offenders’ rates of reconviction. This finding holds across a range of offender subgroups (racial and ethnic, gender, age, and prior criminal justice system involvement).

Conclusions

Imprisoning individuals convicted of marginally serious drug offenses—that is, those close to a cut-off score for being sent to prison—did not reduce subsequent offending. This finding suggests that curtailing the use of imprisonment for such individuals will not appreciably affect future criminal activity and may have the benefit of reducing correctional system costs.

     

Uncovering the Pathways Between Gang Membership and Violent Victimization

Objectives

Gang members are more likely to be victimized violently than non-gang youth, but the extent to which this relationship is confounded, direct, or mediated remains unclear. This study responds to recent calls by scholars for more methodologically sound research in this area with the goal of uncovering the pathways between gang membership and violent victimization.

Methods

Using a school-based longitudinal sample of adolescents, the current study uses Preacher and Hayes multiple mediator structural equation modeling and counterfactual methodology to test whether and which theoretical pathways—self-control, cultural orientations, routine activity, and lifestyle theory—mediate the contemporaneous and prospective effects of gang membership on violent victimization.

Results

The results indicate that 27 % of the contemporaneous effects of gang membership on victimization is attributable to selection, with the remaining 73 % endogenous to gang membership, supporting Thornberry et al.’s (J Res Crime Delinquency 30:55–87, 1993) enhancement model. Entry into a gang increases risk taking, temper, self-centeredness, negative peer commitment, neutralization of violence, aggressive conflict resolution, unstructured socializing, and delinquency, and decreases empathy and positive peer commitment. The contemporaneous gang membership-victimization link was fully mediated, due almost entirely to delinquency. Prospective models reveal a gang membership-victimization link that is fully confounded by selection, although attrition and desistance from gangs may be responsible for this finding.

Conclusions

The existing risky attitudes and behaviors of youth who select into gangs matters a great deal for understanding the gang membership-victimization link, but these very risks are exacerbated upon entry into a gang. Our mediation findings suggest that interventions targeting highly delinquent gang members should pay dual dividends of reducing delinquency and victimization.

     

Effect of emergency winter homeless shelters on property crime

Objective

To evaluate the effect of emergency winter homeless shelters on property crimes in the nearby communities.

Methods

Every winter between 2009 and 2016, the City of Vancouver, Canada opened shelters to protect the homeless from harsh winter conditions. The city opened 19 shelters, but only five to nine of them were open in any one winter. Using the variation in timing and placement of the shelters, we contrast crime rates in the surrounding areas when the shelters are open and closed.

Results

The presence of a shelter appears to cause property crime to increase by 56% within 100 m of that shelter, with thefts from vehicles, other thefts, and vandalism driving the increase. However, when a homeless shelter opened, rates of breaking and entering commercial establishments were 34% lower within 100 m of that shelter. The observed effects are concentrated close to shelters, within 400 m, and dissipate beyond 400 m. Consistent with a causal effect, we find a decreasing effect of shelters with increasing distance from the shelter.

Conclusions

While homeless shelters are a critical social service, in Vancouver, they appear to impact property crime in the surrounding community. Shelters may warrant greater security to control property crime, but the data suggest that any increase in security need not extend beyond 400 m, about two to three blocks, from the shelters.

     

Target Selection Models with Preference Variation Between Offenders

Objectives

This study explores preference variation in location choice strategies of residential burglars. Applying a model of offender target selection that is grounded in assertions of the routine activity approach, rational choice perspective, crime pattern and social disorganization theories, it seeks to address the as yet untested assumption that crime location choice preferences are the same for all offenders.

Methods

Analyzing detected residential burglaries from Brisbane, Australia, we apply a random effects variant of the discrete spatial choice model to estimate preference variation between offenders across six location choice characteristics. Furthermore, in attempting to understand the causes of this variation we estimate how offenders’ spatial target preferences might be affected by where they live and by their age.

Results

Findings of this analysis demonstrate that while in the aggregate the characteristics of location choice are consistent with the findings from previous studies, considerable preference variation is found between offenders.

Conclusions

This research highlights that current understanding of choice outcomes is relatively poor and that existing applications of the discrete spatial choice approach may underestimate preference variation between offenders.

     

The Structure of Citizen Perceptions of Crime and Disorder: New Insights from a Caribbean Community

Objectives

This study builds on existing research from US cities on the construct and discriminant validity of perceptual measures of crime and disorder. It seeks to determine whether citizens distinguish between crime and disorder.

Methods

This study draws on quantitative and qualitative data from a high-crime community in Trinidad and Tobago, a small-island developing nation in the eastern Caribbean. Analysis of the quantitative data relies on exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis methods designed for use with categorical observed variables and continuous latent variables.

Results

In contrast to previous research, we find that citizens do distinguish between physical disorder and general crime, but there is a perceptual overlap for some drug-related offenses and types of social disorder.

Conclusions

This study raises questions about the external validity of research on the relationship between perceptions of crime and disorder conducted in the US, and contributes to ongoing discussions and debates about the meaning of disorder. The findings suggest the need for theory and research to explain how context shapes not only the magnitudes of these perceptions, but also their structures. The results also demonstrate the benefits of mixed-methods research approaches in this area of study.

     

Working with Misspecified Regression Models

Objectives

Conventional statistical modeling in criminology assumes proper model specification. Very strong and unrebutted criticisms have existed for decades. Some respond that although the criticisms are correct, there is for observational data no alternative. In this paper, we provide an alternative.

Methods

We draw on work in econometrics and statistics from several decades ago, updated with the most recent thinking to provide a way to properly work with misspecified models.

Results

We show how asymptotically, unbiased regression estimates can be obtained along with valid standard errors. Conventional statistical inference can follow.

Conclusions

If one is prepared to work with explicit approximations of a “true” model, defensible analyses can be obtained. The alternative is working with models about which all of the usual criticisms hold.

     

A meta-analysis update on the effects of early family/parent training programs on antisocial behavior and delinquency

Objective

To update Piquero et al.’s meta-analysis on early family/parent training programs.

Methods

Screening of eligible studies was carried out for the period between January 2008 and August 2015. An additional 23 studies were identified, which were added to the original database of 55 studies, totaling an overall sample of 78 eligible studies. A random-effects model was used to obtain an overall mean effect size estimate. Additional analyses were performed to assess publication bias and moderation.

Results

An overall average, positive, and significant effect size of 0.37 was calculated, which corresponds to 32 out of 100 in a treated group versus 50 out of 100 in a control group who offended. There was some evidence of publication bias and moderation.

Conclusions

Early family/parent training programs are an effective evidence-based strategy for preventing antisocial behavior and delinquency.

     

Place and Punishment: The Spatial Context of Mass Incarceration

Objectives

Research on race and urban poverty views incarceration as a new and important aspect of social disadvantage in inner-city neighborhoods. However, in quantitative studies of the spatial distribution of imprisonment across neighborhoods, the pattern outside urban areas has not been examined. This paper offers a unique analysis of disaggregated prison admissions and investigates the spatial concentrations and levels of admissions for the entire state of Massachusetts.

Methods

Spatial regressions estimate census tract-level prison admission rates in relation to racial demographics, social and economic disadvantage, arrest rates, and violent crime; an analysis of outlier neighborhoods examines the surprisingly high admission rates in small cities.

Findings

Regression analysis yields three findings. First, incarceration is highly spatially concentrated: census tracts covering 15% of the state’s population account for half of all prison admissions. Second, across urban and non-urban areas, incarceration is strongly related to concentrated disadvantage and the share of the black population, even after controlling for arrest and crime rates. Third, the analysis shows admission rates in small urban satellite cities and suburbs comprise the highest rates in the sample and far exceed model predictions.

Conclusion

Mass incarceration emerged not just to manage distinctively urban social problems but was characteristic of a broader mode of governance evident in communities often far-removed from deep inner-city poverty. These notably high levels and concentrations in small cities should be accounted for when developing theories of concentrated disadvantage or policies designed to ameliorate the impacts of mass incarceration on communities.

     

Acquisitive Crime and Inflation in the United States: 1960–2012

Objectives

Inflation is conspicuous by its absence from recent research on crime and the economy. We argue that price inflation increases the rate of crimes committed for monetary gain by fueling demand for cheap stolen goods.

Methods

The study includes inflation along with indicators of unemployment, GDP, income, consumer sentiment, and controls in error correction models of acquisitive crime covering the period from 1960 to 2012. Both short- and long-run effects of the predictors are estimated.

Results

Among the economic indicators, only inflation has consistent and robust short- and long-run effects on year-over-year change in the offense types under consideration. Low inflation helps to explain why acquisitive crime did not increase during the 2008–2009 recession. Imprisonment rates also have robust long-run effects on change in acquisitive crime rates.

Conclusions

Incorporating inflation into studies of crime and the economy can help to reduce the theoretical and empirical uncertainty that has long characterized this important research area in criminology.

     

Toward a Demographic Understanding of Incarceration Disparities: Race,Ethnicity, and Age Structure

Objectives

Non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics in the United States are more likely to be incarcerated than non-Hispanic whites. The risk of incarceration also varies with age, and there are striking differences in age distributions across racial/ethnic groups. Guided by these trends, the present study examines the extent to which differences in age structure account for incarceration disparities across racial and ethnic groups.

Methods

We apply two techniques commonly employed in the field of demography, age-standardization and decomposition, to data provided by the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the 2010 decennial census to assess the contribution of age structure to racial and ethnic disparities in incarceration.

Findings

The non-Hispanic black and Hispanic incarceration rates in 2010 would have been 13–20 % lower if these groups had age structures identical to that of the non-Hispanic white population. Moreover, age structure accounts for 20 % of the Hispanic/white disparity and 8 % of the black/white disparity.

Conclusion

The comparison of crude incarceration rates across racial/ethnic groups may not be ideal because these groups boast strikingly different age structures. Since the risk of imprisonment is tied to age, criminologists should consider adjusting for age structure when comparing rates of incarceration across groups.

     

During,After, or Both? Isolating the Effect of Religious Support on Recidivism During Reentry

Objectives

To examine the independent and interdependent roles of baseline religious support during incarceration and within-individual changes in religious support on recidivism during the prisoner reentry process.

Methods

Using data from the Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiative, cross-lagged dynamic panel models are used to examine the respective roles of baseline differences and within-individual changes in religious support on two variety indices encompassing substance use and criminal offending while simultaneously controlling for pre-incarceration levels of substance use and offending.

Results

Findings show that within-individual increases in religious support protect against substance use post-release, while baseline levels of religious support do not significantly influence substance use. Additionally, baseline levels of religious support fail to condition this relationship. Findings assessing criminal offending demonstrate that baseline religious support and within-individual changes in religious support fail to relate to offending independently. However, an interaction term reveals that the combination of the two relates to significantly lower levels of offending post-release.

Conclusions

Findings offer encouragement for those involved in the work of providing religious support to ex-offenders in the community, reaffirming that tailoring support programs to the religious or spiritual ways individuals make meaning in their lives can improve reentry outcomes. Methodologically, failing to distinguish between baseline levels of religious support and post-release changes in religious support fails to capture the complexity of religiosity on the reentry process.