Voting's Rewards: Voter Turnout, Attentive Publics, and Congressional Allocation of Federal Money

Scholars have had limited success empirically demonstrating the importance of political participation. This study shows that political participation matters because it influences political rewards. Political participation, specifically voting, acts as a political resource for geographic groups. Voting is a resource because members of Congress seek to maximize the benefits of Federal budget allocations going to their districts. Members of Congress not only try to direct resources into their districts, but they also attempt to allocate strategically those resources to the areas that provide the best return in terms of votes. Hence, areas within congressional districts that vote at higher rates will be privileged over areas that vote at lower rates.     

Voter turnout in presidential primaries: A cross-sectional examination

Decades of individual and aggregate level research suggest that three sets of factors influence voter turnout: the socioeconomic makeup of the potential voter; legal restrictions on voting; and the political context of each election. In this brief study, we use state-level data to test whether these factors combine to account for variations in turnout rates in the electoral arena of presidential primaries. As expected, high turnout is associated with states which have high median levels of education, lenient legal restrictions on voting, and a history of competitive two-party elections. Also congruent with our expectations, but at odds with research of other electoral arenas, high turnout in presidential primaries is unrelated to high campaign spending or close elections. We contend that spending in presidential primaries may be simply too low to stimulate turnout and that close primaries do not enhance turnout because voters are often unaware that the pending election will be close.The names of the authors appear in alphabetical order and imply that this study is in every way a collaborative enterprise.     

Voter turnout and candidate choice: A merged theory

An alternative approach to the explanation of voting behavior is offered, suggesting that the starting point of electoral decision making is individuals' recall of their behavior in the last similar situation. Whether or not this recall is accurate is irrelevant in our model, since the voters' reasoning proceeds from their belief about their earlier behavior, whether or not it is correct. Using this approach we are able to treat voting from a unified perspective, rather than adopting the current stance of treating the turnout decision as separate from and preceding the candidate choice decision.     

Performance Funding in Federal Agencies: A Case Study of a Federal Job Training Program

Our case study highlights important details that enter into developing performance contingent budgeting schemes—details that do not emerge in more general discussions of the subject—and shows how the handling of these details can be crucial to these schemes' success. We study a federal job training program that gives state and local decision makers discretion over the program's operation, but through performance funding holds them accountable for achieving specific objectives. We find that states' modifications to the scheme's construction produced over time highly individualized performance funding schemes that likely varied in their effectiveness.     

Implementing the GPRA: Examining the Prospects for Performance Budgeting in the Federal Government

The Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) is the latest in a series of attempts to introduce performance-based management and budgeting techniques at the federal level in the United States. In the past, these attempts largely failed due to administrative complexities, lack of investment in managerial, accounting, and information systems, and the absence of institutional incentives to promote gains in economic efficiency. Whereas we find the objectives of the GPRA laudable, we question whether this current incarnation of performance budgeting can succeed in transforming the traditional focus of federal budgeting from annual appropriations and obligations to multiyear outputs and outcomes.     

公共危机管理中的府际协作：目标、驱动力与模式

人们习惯于将公共危机管理中的政府视为一个整体,但对危机管理中的府际协作问题却重视不够。政府职能、危机的扩散性和资源有限性要求各级政府必须以协作的方式应对危机,并树立维护安全、提高效益等共同目标。在府际协作达成中既有公共利益等正向驱动力因素,也有地方主义等负向驱动力因素,多种因素在同一场域下进行博弈从而产生主动协作型、命令协作型等协作模式。     

State Corporate and Federal Securities Law: Dual Regulation in a Federal System

Corporate law in the United States involves dual regulation.Although state and federal corporate law typically functionwithout mutual interference, the last thirty years have revealedpotential conflicts, chiefly in two situations. One involvescivil remedies for investors under federal securities statutes;the other is state anti-takeover regulation and its relationshipto the federal Williams Act. The postwar years until 1975 sawperhaps too much reliance on the federal component of corporateregulation. Since 1975, there has been a renaissance of statelaw. Recently, however, appreciation for state regulatory authoritymay have degenerated into hostility to the will of Congress.The authors argue that the core interpretive task in federalsecurities law is preservation of both regimes to maximum effect,because the Congress has expressly declared that state authorityshould continue adjacent to federal regulation.     

The National Interest and the Federal Role in Education

The current discussion of national goals for education createsa predicament for the federal government. Political pressureis mounting for an increased federal role in education, butits ability to play this role is limited both by its own budgetand policy constraints and by the increase in education policyinitiatives of state and local government over the past tenyears. This predicament is not amenable to solution by resortto traditional doctrinal or functional views of federalism.It requires the formulation of a new federal strategy. Amongthe initiatives the federal government might take are raisingpublic discourse about educational performance, sponsoring collaborativeefforts to reduce the incoherence of current educational reformsat the high school level, and increased use of federal categoricalprograms as development projects for new approaches to teachingand learning. These initiatives have the advantage of beingconsistent with current federal budget and policy constraints,drawing upon traditional federal functions, and complementingstate and local reform efforts.     

Beliefs and Voting Decisions: A Test of the Pivotal Voter Model

We report results from a laboratory experiment testing the basic hypothesis embedded in various rational voter models that there is a direct correlation between the strength of an individual's belief that his or her vote will be pivotal and the likelihood that individual incurs the cost to vote. This belief is typically unobservable. In one of our experimental treatments we elicit these subjective beliefs using a proper scoring rule that induces truthful revelation of beliefs. This allows us to directly test the pivotal voter model. We find that a higher subjective probability of being pivotal increases the likelihood that an individual votes, but the probability thresholds used by subjects are not as crisp as the theory would predict. There is some evidence that individuals learn over time to adjust their beliefs to be more consistent with the historical frequency of pivotality. However, many subjects keep substantially overestimating their probability of being pivotal.     

Showing Restraint,Signaling Resolve: Coalitions,Cooperation, and Crisis Bargaining

How do coalition partners affect the dynamics of crisis bargaining? I analyze a model in which a potential coalition leader faces a trade‐off between signaling resolve to a target and retaining a partner's support by limiting the costs of war. The strength of the target conditions the partner's effect. When the target is strong, the need to ensure military cooperation reduces the probability of war by discouraging bluffing, though resolute types can signal resolve by foregoing coalitional support. When the target is weaker, a resolute coalition leader moderates threats to preserve military cooperation, foregoing the chance to signal resolve and increasing the chances of war, even as the partner successfully moderates the leader's bargaining posture. Thus, coalitions may face higher probabilities of war against weaker targets than stronger ones, coalitions are more likely against weak than strong targets, and partners can increase or decrease the probability of war.     

Unresponsive and Unpersuaded: The Unintended Consequences of a Voter Persuasion Effort

To date, field experiments on campaign tactics have focused overwhelmingly on mobilization and voter turnout, with far more limited attention to persuasion and vote choice. In this paper, we analyze a field experiment with 56,000 Wisconsin voters designed to measure the persuasive effects of canvassing, phone calls, and mailings during the 2008 presidential election. Focusing on the canvassing treatment, we find that persuasive appeals had two unintended consequences. First, they reduced responsiveness to a follow-up survey among infrequent voters, a substantively meaningful behavioral response that has the potential to induce bias in estimates of persuasion effects as well. Second, the persuasive appeals possibly reduced candidate support and almost certainly did not increase it. This counterintuitive finding is reinforced by multiple statistical methods and suggests that contact by a political campaign may engender a backlash.     

Federal Dynamics of Changing Governance Arrangements in Education: A Comparative Perspective on Australia,Canada and Germany

Abstract

Education policy is a highly interesting field from the point of view of governance, given the substantial changes that have been made throughout the world to the governance of such policy over the last 30 years or so. Western governments in particular have made significant changes in the governance arrangements of their education policy in order to achieve two fundamental goals: increased efficiency and greater accountability. In this process, the role of governments has changed but not diminished. This paper explores such developments by comparing the trajectories of governance reforms in three federal countries (Australia, Canada and Germany). What emerges is that the role of governments is key to all governance mixes modelled by the reform processes in the three analysed countries, and that there is greater “national” coordination than before, but also significant differences in the strategies adopted and in the content of reform, due to the differing nature of such countries’ federal dynamics.     

Differential Registration Bias in Voter File Data: A Sensitivity Analysis Approach

The widespread availability of voter files has improved the study of participation in American politics, but the lack of comprehensive data on nonregistrants creates difficult inferential issues. Most notably, observational studies that examine turnout rates among registrants often implicitly condition on registration, a posttreatment variable that can induce bias if the treatment of interest also affects the likelihood of registration. We introduce a sensitivity analysis to assess the potential bias induced by this problem, which we call differential registration bias. Our approach is most helpful for studies that estimate turnout among registrants using posttreatment registration data, but it is also valuable for studies that estimate turnout among the voting‐eligible population using secondary sources. We illustrate our approach with two studies of voting eligibility effects on subsequent turnout among young voters. In both cases, eligibility appears to decrease turnout, but these effects are found to be highly sensitive to differential registration bias.     

Federalism and Education Planning in the Federal Republic of Germany

In 1969 demands for greater rationality in education planninggave rise to new institutionalized forms of cooperation betweenthe federation and the Länder. Conflicts between the federaland Land governments, partisan conflicts, and financial conflictsoverlapped this cooperation. Despite the fact that the formalcapacity for dealing with conflicts had many shortcomings, ajoint general plan for education was issued in 1973 as a resultof favorable economic and political conditions. However, in1978 the federal government failed in its attempt to utilizethe dissatisfaction with the existing system of cooperationto extend its responsibilities for education. The deteriorationin economic and political conditions led to an end of effortsto formulate a general plan for education in 1982 and reducedthe scale of joint activities. Forms of educational cooperationbetween the federation and the Länder still exist, butthey no longer fulfill their original purpose. The centralizationof decisionmaking, which was originally expected, never cameinto being.     

The 2003 and 2015 Constitutional Referenda in Rwanda: A Significant Change in Voter Turnout

Data on voter turnout and choice at the Rwanda’s 2003 and 2015 constitutional referenda were acquired and analyzed. The results revealed contrasting changes in voter turnout between diaspora and in-country electorate. Arguably, at home, lack of freedom on the part of registered voters to make independent choices may explain the 9.3 percent and 5.2 percent increase in voter turnout and “yes” vote, respectively. On the other hand, while the repressive arm of the regime can reach Rwandan citizens both at home and abroad so as to compel them not oppose its political agenda, voters in diaspora enjoy some level of relaxation, especially those staying in Western democracies, which could explain the 37.8 percent drop in voter turnout. The article further argues that the results of the 2003 and 2015 referenda could be used to support suggestions that the Tutsi electorate indeed stands more divided than it was a decade ago.     

Tax Competition and Tax Coordination in a Median Voter Model

This paper analyzes the welfare effects of capital tax coordination in a simple model of fiscal competition where fiscal policy is subject to majority voting and households differ with respect to their labor and capital income. It turns out that a coordinated capital tax increase may raise or reduce welfare, depending on the relative magnitude of i) economic distortions induced by a labor tax and ii) political distortions resulting from the influence of the median voter on fiscal policy decisions. A negative welfare effect is more likely, the smaller the marginal excess burden of the labor tax and the smaller the ratio of the median voter's labor income to average labor income. We also use empirical estimates of the marginal excess burden of taxation to determine the welfare effects of tax coordination; it turns out that a negative welfare effect of coordinated tax increases may emerge in our model for empirically reasonable parameters.     

Implementing the Chief Financial Officers Act and the Government Performance and Results Act in the Federal Government

The Chief Financial Officers Act of 1990 and the Government Performance and Results Act of 1993, along with other legislation passed by Congress, are stimulating major financial management reform in the federal government. This article evaluates reform implementation against nine criteria developed in previous research on this topic. The criteria are accounting system adequacy, congressional intent, ability of Congress to use financial statement data, executive branch implementation incentives, capability of the Office of Management and Budget, utility of financial statements for decision making, use of performance measures in budgeting, coordination of federal organizations charged with implementation responsibility, and executive and congressional support for reform.     

The Bipolar Voter: On the Effects of Actual and Perceived Party Polarization on Voter Turnout in European Multiparty Democracies

Despite the growing literature on polarization, students of comparative politics have not yet been able to reach much assured understanding of how party polarization influences voter turnout in multiparty settings, which often put on offer both centrist, and divergent mainstream and niche party policies. I evaluate how politically sophisticated and unsophisticated citizens with different ideological preferences respond to high and increasing party polarization by employing individual- and party system-level data from 17 European multiparty democracies. I hypothesize that high levels of actual and perceived party polarization increase voter turnout, and policy seeking, sophisticated citizens are more likely to turn out when polarization in party policy offerings in the short run increases their utility from voting. The empirical analyses show that high party polarization increases both politically sophisticated and unsophisticated citizens’ propensities to turn out. However, such positive effect for the most part comes from the between- and within-party systems differences in actual party polarization, rather than how individual citizens perceive that. The implications of these findings with respect to strategic position taking incentives of political parties and the effects of the knowledge gap between sophisticated and unsophisticated citizens on political participation and democratic representation are discussed in the concluding section.