我国国债风险产生的原因及对策分析

国债政策是一把“双刃剑”,运用得当,可以促进经济的稳定和发展,如果出现偏差,则可能会危及到经济安全和稳定。针对我国国债风险产生的原因,应通过建立多层次的国债市场体系、调整国债品种结构、统一政府外债管理等举措加以控制和规避。     

中国国债风险分析

偿债风险问题的出现同我国经济改革的特殊性有密切关系.我国只有提高财政收入的GDP的比重,调整国债的期限结构,调整国债的利率水平,才能建立起科学合理的国债本息偿付机制.     

增持日本国债，需防五个风险

从目前来看，尽管投资日本国债相对于欧美国债而言的风险要小一些，而且日本国债的局部方面所表现出的安全性也大于欧美国债，但动态地审视，中国增持日本国债同样存在着不少风险。     

国债热销的背后

我国自１９９４年发行凭证式国债以来，已经经历了８个年头。２００２年２月２１日，我国第九次全面下调了人民币存贷款利率，使得人们的视线再次转向与市场利率紧密相关的国债市场。连续的降息使得凭证式国债在全国普遍热销，城镇居民踊跃购买，各家承销机构的国债短期之内全部售完。除了国有商业银行的柜台销售外，各家参与承销的股份制商业银行也积极开拓新业务，招商银行、光大银行纷纷开办了电话订购和信用卡网上交易等新的方式来为人们提供更方便、快捷的服务。然而受到国债发行数量的限制，仍难以满足老百姓的需求。国债的热销，从表…     

测量国债规模的模型阐释——基于国债功能的变迁

采用经济学规范研究方法,沿袭了模型阐释国债规模测量的主流研究路径--当前价值的借款约束模型和国债自然规模模型,从宏观和微观、供给与需求的角度,剖析了决定一国国债规模的关键要素.关注了不同模型下的均衡结果,获得了国债功能变迁下测量国债规模的组合模型.研究表明,在制度变迁等外部因素影响下,国债功能有显著的变化.国债功能的变迁是国债规模波动的主要原因之一.理论上,现今的国债规模测量存在短期均衡和长期均衡交替呈现的基本特征.而在动态分析框架下,国债规模的测量受到宏观和微观因素的共同影响.研究对理论模型结果进行了操作性解释,为实证研究搭建了必要的实施框架.研究认为,进一步地探寻测量国债规模组合模型的微观基础,是将来研究的主要方向.     

重启国债期货对我国经济的深远影响

本文从国债期货的特性和基本功能入手，结合我国经济和金融改革的实践，深入分析国债期货的理论价值和现实意义。     

国债市场的发展急需恢复国债期货交易

1992— 1995年我国国债期货交易试点的失败是因为当时的市场经济体制不健全。在广大投资者风险意识有了很大提高 ,市场急需套期保值工具 ,国内外投资者苦于我国金融市场投资工具不足的今天 ,国家应尽快恢复国债期货交易 ,以搞活金融流通领域 ,发展金融期货市场。     

中国巨额外汇储备及其对美国国债的投资

中国外汇储备的迅速增加是导致中国持有美国国债增加的直接原因。由于中国的外汇储备规模巨大，其中美元又占了绝大多数，因此在很长的一个时期内，美国国债仍会是中国外汇储备投资的一个主要方面。中国可以通过增加在海外资源方面的战略性投资，来逐步减少外汇储备。同时，中国应通过扩大内需，从根本上控制已经过于庞大的外汇储备的进一步增加。     

扩张性国债政策破疑

积极财政政策的实施已近四年,其成效是显著的。但是,赤字与国债规模的迅速扩大也使人产生某些担忧。第一,我国经济能否承受不断扩大的国债规模,特别是在各类政府隐性及或有债务规模较大的情况下,继续实施扩张性的国债政策是否会带来财政风险向危机的转化;第二,国债投资的增加是否会对民间投资产生挤出效     

国债发行是否超越警戒线?

1996年我国国债发行总规模为1952亿元。上半年已发行六期,累计发行1300亿元,发行顺畅,反应了国债这一作为收益稳定、投资风险几近于零的“金边债券”仍然受到投资者的青睐。但是,经济学家们却在研究:国债的规模是否已经超过警戒线?国家是否会陷入“债务危机”? 国债发行规模 在安全线内吗? 对于国债的发行规模到底应该     

关于新形势下中国国家形象战略问题的思考

新世纪以来,中国国家形象战略的成就举世瞩目,赢得了世界人民的高度赞誉.但是,中国国家形象战略目前仍面临着来自外部和内部的种种挑战.所以,实施国家形象战略应把握好以下几个方面问题:一是理性对待中国国家形象的错位；二是把提高民族凝聚力作为实施中国国家形象战略的重要基础,中国国家形象应体现中华民族的优秀价值理念；三是实施中国国家形象战略应摒弃狭隘的民族主义.     

Deep finance: sovereign debt crises and the secondary market ‘fix’

Links between ballooning national debts and official aid conditionalities are well understood. Private sovereign debt markets, in contrast, have been largely overlooked outside mainstream economics. Yet, since the 1980s, a ‘secondary market regime’ in sovereign bonds has transformed financial geographies and legal practices, facilitating the build-up of riskier sovereign debts and strengthening specialized distressed debt investors. This secondary market ‘fix’ has enabled the international financial system to muddle through successive crises. Using the recently concluded Argentine debt saga as an example, I show how the secondary market regime’s effects on debtors are intertwined with, but distinct from, those of structural adjustment programmes; in cases of resistance to neoliberalism, ‘deep’ secondary market debt structures serve to push countries (back) into the neoliberal fold.     

Linking two levels of governance: Citizens’ trust in domestic and European institutions over time

This article puts forward a comprehensive framework for explaining the complex and dynamic relationship between trust in the domestic government and trust in the EU, considering time, country and individual-level variation. Using longitudinal comparative data from 32 Eurobarometer survey waves (2004–2018), we first establish that the link between attitude formation at the national and the EU supranational levels is present over time. Second, we show that during ‘extraordinary’ times of crisis the strength of that relationship intensifies. Third, we posit that the European sovereign debt crisis changed the mechanism for this relationship in two ways: during ‘extraordinary’ times, the link is much stronger in countries hardest hit by the crisis, and the relationship holds independent of individuals' political sophistication across all countries. Our findings have implications for understanding the drivers of EU support and theories of institutional trust.     

Debt intolerance and the 90 per cent debt threshold: two impossibility theorems

Abstract

Two propositions underpin the retreat from post-crisis fiscal expansion instituted by several G7 governments in the summer of 2010. One is that the threat of debt intolerance is general: the reasoning is that the sharp rise in government debt levels caused by post-crisis fiscal expansion will force investors to abandon government bonds in favour of some other asset class. The other proposition is that there is a one-size debt threshold: the reasoning is that no government, those of the G7 countries included, can escape the serious consequences of debt intolerance and the threat of exit should its debt to GDP ratio reach 90 per cent. This paper argues that neither of these propositions can have credibility at a time of continuing global economic slowdown and consequent contraction in the global supplies of investable assets. At such a time investors cannot possibly hold up the threat of intolerance to core economy governments because they have no choice but to store substantial portions of their wealth in the latter's bonds, a fact which in turn means that the debt thresholds for core economy governments cannot possibly be the same as the average for other governments.     

Does public debt matter for human capital development? Evidence from Nigeria

An inquiry into the impact of external and domestic borrowings is considered timely for Nigeria, given the growing public debt profile amid deteriorating human capital development. Using data from 1990 to 2021, the study estimates the effects of domestic and external debts on Nigeria's human capital development. The study employed the fully modified ordinary least squares and canonical cointegration regression as the main estimation technique and the robustness check, respectively. The study discovered that domestic and external debt, economic growth and debt servicing exert positive and significant influence on human capital development in Nigeria while environmental pollution has an inverse and significant impact on human capital development in Nigeria. Premised on the outcomes, policy suggestions aimed at enhancing human capital development in Nigeria have been put forward.     

The Europeanization of national elections. The role of country characteristics in shaping EU issue voting

Research has shown that voting in European elections is affected by domestic politics. However, in the last years, and particularly after the European debt crisis, also the EU has gained relevance and salience in national politics. In this paper we address the Europeanization of national elections and assess to what extent the characteristics of countries condition the intensity of EU issue voting. Using data from the European Election Studies and the Comparative Manifestos Project, our results demonstrate the importance of congruence between citizens' and parties’ positions on the EU for the individual vote on the national level and show how this varies across countries. We provide evidence that EU issue voting is more intense in countries with more political influence in the EU as well as in countries that are net contributors to EU funds.     

Collateral Damage: The Impact of Mortgage Debt on U.S. Savings

This article contributes to the literature on saving by empirically investigating the determinants of the saving rate in the United States, with a special focus on the role of mortgage debt. Using data from 1987 to 2013, we find that mortgage payments have a substantial negative impact on both personal and private saving rates in the United States. An increase of 10 percentage points in mortgage payments leads to a 9.1-percentage-point drop in the personal saving rate and a 12.4-percentage-point drop in the private saving rate. In addition, including mortgage debt as an explanatory variable leads to significant changes in the impact of other variables, which further reinforces our claim that mortgage debt is important for the analysis of the saving rate. Comparing mortgage payments with nonmortgage consumer debt payments, we find that mortgage payments have a larger impact on the private saving rate whereas nonmortgage consumer debt payments have a larger impact on the personal saving rate. We also find a partial but robust crowding-out effect of public saving rate on the two saving rates. Our results have implications for monetary policy and government policies that encourage mortgage borrowing.     

Serial payers,serial losers? The political economy of Argentina’s public debt

A global neoliberal architecture has enabled many countries to increase their public debts to meet their fiscal needs. But since 2008 a number of European and North American economies have faced financial crises induced by unsustainable debts. This paper analyses the case of post-default Argentina since 2001, so as to better comprehend the political economy of public debt, especially in cases where governments are elected on anti-austerity platforms. Presidents Néstor and Cristina Kirchner were committed to a debt-reduction policy, yet Argentina faced a new, ‘selective’, default in 2014. This paper analyses how the country has been trapped in a cycle of debt dependency, which can only be interrupted by a comprehensive audit of the debt’s legitimacy followed by debt cancellation. Critical lessons are provided for other countries facing similar situations.     

Fiscal Consolidation and Australia's Public Debt

Australia has experienced one of the fastest growing public debt levels in the world post‐Global Financial Crisis due to a series of large federal budget deficits driven by high government spending. In this paper we examine the balance sheet implications of this escalating public debt, before proposing some macro‐fiscal objectives for determining its sustainable level. These objectives are to (i) restore the federal government's solvency; (ii) eliminate foreign public debt; and (iii) achieve budgetary balance over the business cycle. Empirically, we first examine how much fiscal consolidation is required for debt stabilisation at current levels, before considering what sized budget balances are needed to achieve the target debt to GDP ratios consistent with the proposed objectives. The results show that no target debt to GDP level consistent with the optimal levels will be met on current fiscal settings in the medium term. This implies significantly greater fiscal consolidation is required to minimise future fiscal risk.     

Empirical examination of public debt sustainability in African economies: A panel data analysis

This study intends to investigate public debt sustainability across 29 Sub-Sahara African (SSA) economies, employing various econometric specifications, for the sampled years 1996–2020. The study employs Bohn's (Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint? Journal of monetary Economics, 54(7), pp.1837–1847.) framework of sustainability as the baseline model to assess public debt sustainability across the sampled Sub-Sahara African economies. As additional tests of public debt sustainability in order to support the baseline findings, the study also employs panel unit root and timeseries unit tests. The baseline findings from the OLS, panel quantile and instrumental panel quantile regressions show that public debt is sustainable across the panel of SSA economies. The positive and statistically significant response of primary balance under the Bohn's framework of sustainability manifest that the intertemporal budget constraint is not violated in the sampled economies. The consistency in the estimates under the OLS, panel quantile and instrumental panel quantile regressions also show that the estimates are robust throughout the estimation process. Also, utilizing the panel unit root test for public debt sustainability, the findings show that public debt is stationary over the sampled years which implies that intertemporal budget constraint holds and that public debt is sustainable across the sampled SSA economies. However, the timeseries analysis indicate that although majority of the SSA economies have sustainable public debt ratios, four countries namely Uganda, Sudan, Togo and Cote d'Ivoire have unsustainable public debt ratios. The study has important policy implications in terms of prudent public debt management and fiscal management for the sampled SSA economies.