Myanmar’s way to democracy and the limits of the 2015 elections

The general election held on 8 November 2015 marked a significant turning point in Myanmar’s ongoing regime transition. Under the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi, the National League for Democracy (NLD) overwhelmingly dominated the polls. Although the huge electoral mandate for the NLD suggests that further political liberalization in Myanmar is likely, the country is not yet undergoing a genuine democratization. Under the current constitutional framework, the military will remain a key actor within the government, thus a new power-sharing arrangement between the NLD and the military is inevitable. This article examines how Myanmar has transformed from a military regime into the military’s version of a ‘disciplined democracy’ and argues that the 2015 general election was not a precursor to a democratic government per se, but rather a re-affirmation of the military’s version of democracy, in which popularly elected civilian political parties are allowed to co-govern the country with the military.     

Crafting democratic control of the military in South Korea and the Philippines: the problem of military factions

This article explores how a military's organizational character (cohesion or lack thereof) shapes military officers' attitudes toward new civilian leadership in democratizing South Korea and the Philippines. It suggests that a factionalized military makes civilian control much more difficult and the route to democratic consolidation highly unstable and incomplete for three reasons. First, in the factionalized army, individual officers' allegiance is directed toward their factional leaders, not toward the military as a unified body and the civilian leadership. Second, factionalized military will create ‘monitoring’ and ‘sanctioning’ problems for civilians. Finally, competition among various factions in the military promotes officers' appetite for political domination. The structured-focused analysis of democratization in South Korea and the Philippines clearly sustains the theoretical arguments. The study implies that the institutionalization of civilian control of the military in democratizing nations depends on new leaders' ability/willingness to remove military factions and rebuild the armed forces into a cohesive organ.     

Political parties,party systems,and economic reforms: The Turkish case

Turkey’s experience with economic reforms and democratization since the early 1980s underscores the importance of the political parties and the party systems in the interactions between these two processes. The country’s experience with democratic politics and a multiparty system made a significant contribution to the resumption of electoral politics and redemocratization following three years of military rule in the early 1980s. However, the opening up of the political space and the reemergence of competitive party politics ultimately created problems for the successful completion of the economic reforms, as one-party dominance and majority-party governments gave way to fragmentation in the party system with weak coalition governments. The Turkish case is instructive of the difficulties facing countries that seek to simultaneously consolidate their democracies and liberalize their economies. Sabri Sayari is executive director of the Institute of Turkish Studies and research professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. He has written extensively on Turkey’s domestic politics and foreign policy, and on issues related to political development, parties and party systems, and democratization.     

The process of democratization in Latin America

During the 1980s, Latin America experienced the longest and deepest wave of democratization in its history. The origins of this process of transformation are to be found in the interaction between domestic and international forces. At the international level, the key events were the oil shocks of the 1970s, the related expansion of international lending, and the subsequent debt crisis. The speed and extent to which these changes were translated into democratization were conditioned by the political alignments of the private sector and structural fragilities of authoritarianism at the national level. The persistence of the democratization trend through time reflects the importance of other factors, including global political change, the receding threat of the revolutionary left, the internationalization of capital markets, constraints on domestic policy choice, and political learning, which have converged at the domestic level to reduce the incentives and opportunities for authoritarian reversals.     

THE PROBLEM OF LEGITIMACY FOR THE POST-HANDOVER HONG KONG GOVERNMENT

The much-publicized reversion of Hong Kong's sovereignty to China on July 1, 1997, has been hailed as a success by many. Politically, it has been pointed out that Hong Kong has scarcely changed since the handover. Nevertheless, the alleged successful transition has also witnessed a number of economic, social, and political crises. Drawing on systematically collected longitudinal data of public opinion, this paper tries to answer two important questions: first, has the quasibureaucratic-authoritarian political structure of the post transition government experienced a “legitimation problem,” i.e., a rejection of the political structure as a whole. And second, does social discontent directed at incumbent government officials represent strong bottom-up pressure for faster democratization? The longitudinal data suggest that even when public confidence in the HKSAR government dropped to its lowest level in June 1998, there was no evidence to suggest the quasi-bureaucratic authoritarian system had a legitimation problem, nor was there strong public pressure demanding rapid democratization. The demand for changing the political system has seldom been treated as an important personal concern during the transitional period. While social and economic issues have been of great personal concern for most Hong Kong people, very few of them have demanded democratic changes as a way of restoring confidence. Pressure for bottom-up democratization remains low.     

The Evolving Role of the Africa Scholar in African Studies

This paper explores – through a geo-political perspective – the changes and continuities in South African foreign policy over the period 1990–2010, focusing on the themes of military relations, migration, democratization, and pan-Africanism. The demise of apartheid led to significant changes in South Africa's relations with southern Africa and the rest of Africa, including: transition of South Africa from pariah state to a key leader of the continent; an end to South Africa's destabilization of its immediate neighbours; transition toward more humane treatment of migrants; and transition toward a commitment to democracy promotion in Africa. Yet, continuities among the apartheid and post-apartheid eras persist, including: the persistence of nationalism and realism as guiding principles; ongoing economic and political constraints imposed by neighbouring countries; the persistence of socio-cultural divisions amongst South African and migrant workers; and overall ambivalence about pan-African identity and policies.     

Democracy,confusion, or chaos: Political conditionality in Kenya

We argue that the policy of conditioning all economic development aid on a process of democratization is a mistake. Good economic policy should be rewarded for its own sake. The process of democratization is costly to participants, and forcing it prematurely can lead to institutional collapse rather than development. Unclear definition of political conditionality has made donor policies inconsistent and capricious. We make these arguments conceptually and then review the experience of one of the most explicit cases of conditionality-induced “democratization”—Kenya. An aid cutoff stimulated the government to hold multiparty elections for the first time in many years. Despite the apparent success, the human and economic costs have been high, and the political changes less than donors hoped.     

Super-optimizing china: reunification as an example

Whereas political issues and problems in China are complicated, efforts to “super-optimize” are essential and can be fruitful. The reunification issue is discussed to illustrate even highly politicized problems in China are amenable to super-optimum solutions. At the moment, some reunification options have been proposed: KMT-CCP negotiation on equal footing; KMT's military takeover; CCP's military takeover; the “one country, two systems” formula, convergence by democratization, and incremental convergence through trading and communication. Yet, neither parties find the alternatives desirable in terms of optimal satisfaction. By applying SOS rule # 2 (finding items that will provide large benefits to one side but only small costs to the other side), # 5 (combining the conservative and liberal alternatives where they are not mutually exclusive), and # 6 (removing the source of the conflict), reunification and democratization are made feasible and all parties concerned are better off. The specific proposals are that Taiwan should introduce a wholesale buy-out scheme that costs US$30 billion, that a new republic be established, and that legislative powers should be shared among the majoritarian and non-majoritarian institutions. Together, these arrangements could ensure stability and result in democratization.     

20年来美国中亚战略的基本路径

苏联解体20年来，美国的中亚战略灵活多样，已经摸索出一套相对稳定、成熟和确定的手段。基本路径和手段包括：密切政治关系、推进地区多极化均衡；加强经济援助和经济合作，推动建立利伯维尔场经济；加强军事安全合作，合作打击极端势力并威慑其他大国；利用软硬手段结合，择机推进民主体制和自由价值观等。从1995年开始，美国采取了大规模政治、经济和军事“攻势”。“9·11”事件后，美国通过在中亚维持军事存在，一度使中亚国际关系发生了有利于美国的变化。     

Varieties of Authoritarianism: The Organization of the Military State and its Effects on Federalism in Argentina and Brazil

While much has been written about democracy and democratization, far less attention has been paid to the institutional organization of authoritarian regimes. Scholars have focused on the causes, economic policies, societal support, intra-elite conflicts, or human-rights violations of authoritarian regimes. More recently, political scientists have also studied the role of elections and legislatures on the survival of authoritarian regimes. However, the very different ways in which authoritarian regimes, and military regimes in particular, organize the government, occupy the state apparatus, and modify the country’s political institutions have largely gone under-theorized. This essay contributes to fill in this void by analyzing how the last military regimes of Argentina (1976–1983) and Brazil (1964–1985) organized power within the state and the legacies of such organization on the institutions of federalism. The essay argues that variation in the organization of the state under the military regimes accounts for the divergent origins of post-developmental decentralization, which in turn explains the contrasting evolution of intergovernmental relations in each country. The article contributes to the recent literature on electoral authoritarian regimes by showing that elections and legislatures matter not only to regime survival but also to policy outcomes.     

The Ukrainian Orange Revolution brought more than a new president: What kind of democracy will the institutional changes bring?

The authors discuss the institutional changes proposed in Ukraine's constitutional framework and election laws that could fundamentally alter the separation of powers and the responsiveness of Ukrainian government to the electorate. We analyze the proposed institutional changes from the perspective of what they portend for Ukraine's democratic transition. Building on the most recent vein of democratization studies examining institutional factors affecting democratic stability, we emphasize that it cannot be assumed that Ukraine is “in transition to democracy.” We conclude that comprehending the likelihood of achieving democratic stability must be contextualized in an understanding of intervening factors—political, economic, and historical—that ultimately influence democratic stability. Our analysis reminds government reform advocates that it is necessary to go beyond the basic institutional framework of proposed governmental changes in order to obtain a more comprehensive picture of democratization.     

Institutional effects on democratic transitions: Neo-Patrimonial regimes in Africa, 1989–1994

The outcomes of political transitions during the late 1980s and early 1990s varied considerably across sub-Saharan African countries. In their well-received book, Michael Bratton and Nicolas van de Walle (1997a) concluded that the differences in sub-Saharan Africa's incumbent neo-patrimonial regimes shaped contingent factors such as political protests and military interventions that were important to transition outcomes, but did not themselves directly influence the success of transitions. Shortcomings in their statistical analysis, however, cast doubt on this conclusion. This article presents an ordered logit analysis of Bratton and van de Walle’s rich data set that corrects these flaws. It concludes that institutions did more than merely shape contingent events; they had powerful and independent direct effects on the outcomes of political transitions in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa. Frederick Solt is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. With the support of a Fulbright-García Robles grant, he is currently conducting dissertation fieldwork on subnational democratization in Mexico. I would like to thank Guang Guo and Evelyne Huber, as well as theSCID editors and anonymous external reviewers, for their helpful suggestions on earlier versions of this work.     

Missing the Third Wave: Islam,Institutions, and Democracy in the Middle East

This article explores why some societies witnessed less political liberalization during the Third Wave of democratization than others, and importantly, the conditions under which opposition forces may refrain from pressing for political reform. Focusing on the Muslim world, it also presents a more complete understanding of when and how political Islam hinders democratization. Specifically, historical experiences with Islamists in the 1970s and institutional structures established by the 1980s created a condition of uncertainty that enabled some incumbents to thwart liberalization during the Third Wave. Incumbents exploited the fear of political Islam, convincing many secularist opponents that they were better off with the current regime than with Islamist rule. The extent to which incumbents could succeed varied, depending on whether or not Islamist movements had been allowed to mobilize openly and the extent that the regime based its legitimacy on Islam. The argument extends beyond the Muslim world. What is fundamentally at stake is not whether Islam exists as a mobilizing ideology, but whether democratically-minded opponents believe that non-democratic opposition groups exist that would potentially subvert a democratic opening.     

The Inner Asian anomaly: Mongolia's democratization in comparative perspective

Following the demise of Soviet-type regimes most countries of postcommunist Inner Asia either experienced initial political openings followed by reversion to authoritarianism or moved directly from one type of harsh authoritarianism to another. Mongolia is exceptional. The extent of political opening there during the 1990s far exceeded anything seen in any neighboring country and the gains of the early post-Soviet period were maintained instead of reversed. This paper investigates the causes of Mongolia's relative success and argues that the absence of several factors that are often regarded as propitious for democratization has actually facilitated Mongolia's democratization. The experience of postcommunist Inner Asia casts doubt on some arguments current in thinking on regime change.     

Political entrepreneurship and the Ko-P phenomenon in Taiwan’s democratization*

Taiwan’s economic modernization and political democratization after World War II have been praised as good examples for emerging countries. As of 2014, Taiwan has successfully gone through four direct presidential elections and two rounds of peaceful transfer of power. However, continuing sectarian quarrels between the ruling Kuomintang and the opposition Democratic Progressive Party cast doubt on the suitability of democracy for a Confucian society. This pessimism is challenged by the emergence of a new political star. A political novice, Ko Wen-je (aka Ko-P), won a landslide victory in the 2014 Taipei mayoral election, which is seen as a phenomenon. It has significant political implications and has so far inspired changes in the political landscape. The adoption of entrepreneurial strategies, such as identifying problems, leading by example, and team creation, are unprecedented in Taiwan’s political campaign. The Ko-P phenomenon demonstrates a self-correcting mechanism in Taiwan’s political system and bodes well for the future of new democracies, particularly for the Greater China Region.     

Elites and institutions in conservative transitions to democracy: Ex-authoritarians in the Brazilian National Congress

Although many students of democratization accept that new democracies are impacted by various legacies of the previous authoritarian regime, little attention has been paid to the relationship between characteristics of the political class and the imperative of institution building in the new democracies. Conservative transitions to democracy, where continuity in the political class remains high despite the change in regime, are notably dependent on the participation of ex-authoritarians in the process of institution-building. Many such elites were socialized to marginal or fictional representative institutions under authoritarianism, leading them toward political practices which may subsequently be inimical to the development of effective instituions under democracy. A study of ex-authoritarians in the Brazilian Congress reveals their weaker commitment to legislative institutionalization, thus illustrating some of the tradeoffs and drawbacks of conservative transitions to democracy. Timothy J. Power is assistant professor of political science at Louisiana State University. He is currently writing a book on the role of the political right in Brazilian democratization.     

Dynamics of democratization and nationalization: the significance of women’s suffrage and women’s political participation in parliament in the Second Polish Republic

This paper will examine processes of democratization and “nationalization” with specific reference to the Second Polish Republic (II Rzeczpospolita) and the interwar period. Starting from a consideration of broader theoretical concepts concerning transformation processes and their relation to the analytical categories of gender and ethnicity, it will discuss the introduction of political rights for women in 1918 as a case study for the role women’s suffrage played in the process of democratization. A closer examination of the activity of three selected female members of parliament – a Polish, Jewish, and Ukrainian MP – in the Polish parliament will help to clarify if and how gender and ethnicity mattered in political institutions. It is argued that especially their speeches, by addressing specifically political demands in a certain way, that is, how they spoke in the name of their sex, nation, and ethnicity, show a close interlinkage between democratization and nationalization during the Second Polish Republic. From this will emerge a more general outlook on the extent to which the recognition of women’s suffrage molded the basis for equality between women and men, and if the legally guaranteed equality really included all citizens of the Polish state.     

中东欧政治转型的类型、进程和特点

由于内外部各种因素的不同,中东欧国家近20年的政治发展呈现出两种模式。一种是波兰等国的平稳演进型,即政治发展相对平稳、民主制度比较巩固,与西方国家的政治体制比较接近;另一种是除斯洛文尼亚外的前南地区的冲突裂变型,即政治发展受民族主义影响比较大,民主化引发了国家分裂和民族冲突。建立西方式民主制是各国政治转型的既定目标,两种类型都不会退回到社会主义时期的一党政治;但民主化并不是中东欧历史的终结,国情的多样性为各国培育新的民主模式提供了可能性。     

Managing the Public Sector in Hong Kong: Trends and Adjustments

Public sector management in Hong Kong was initially designed to rule the territory as a British colony. A number of changes took place in the last quarter century before Hong Kong's reintegration with China and the nature of public sector management has transformed over this period. An overview of administrative principles and practices and an analysis of changes reveal trends that were influenced by both local and international factors. The framework of traditional public administration in the territory adapted effectively to embrace the principles of new public management without much difficulty. The global economic crisis compelled the government to revise its strategies to expand public spending and adopt a further reduced role in the provision of public services. New social, economic and political challenges are driving Hong Kong to adjust to the changing circumstances and trends, and four noticeable shifts can be identified. They include shifts from an administrative to a political executive, from job cuts to job creation, from financial restraint to increased spending, and from public to private sector provision of public services. The trends are driven by local and international forces as well as the progress of democratization and political awareness in Hong Kong.     

The emergence of political pluralism in Romania

This paper puts forward arguments supporting the idea that the essence of political evolution in Romania since 1989 has been the same as in other former communist countries of East Central Europe. In spite of some specific features, of some delays, and of difficulties, it is a process of democratization. As political practice has revealed, pluralism is first associated here with the establishment of a multi-party system and also with the proliferation of different non-party groups. The most important moments of the pluralization process in Romania are evoked, focusing on the elections and the adoption of the new Constitution.