Deterrence,uncertainty and cooperative behavior

The paper analyzes deterrence relationships in situations when the relevant forms of behavior are subject to lags such as in the case of foreign interventions and technological arms races. Mutual deterrence is a way of inducing cooperative behavior. Successful deterrence, in the cases considered, can be considered as ways of inducing cooperative behaviors in Prisoners’ Dilemma Supergames, the model used in this paper. It is argued that, in general, deterrence is more likely to be successful and hence cooperative behavior more prevalent in systems where the actors can move between strategies quickly (i.e., are flexible) and which are characterized by low uncertainty. The paper also analyzes the concept of discounting and time preference in the discussion of political phenomena where the concept has no market interpretation. It is analyzed as a rational response to uncertainty.     

Neutrality Regimes

Abstract

I analyze a model of war expansion in the shadow of international law, where neutrality regimes emerge as equilibria in which only aggressive states are expected to violate the law. By sorting belligerents according to their ambitions (restrained or aggressive), neutrality regimes can help resolve third-party uncertainty over the desirability of balancing. Punishment for violations of the law emerges in equilibrium from self-interested power calculations absent any principled legal commitment. The model shows that (a) neutrality regimes can be effective not despite but because of inconsistent compliance; (b) strong third parties are uniquely prone to failures to balance under neutrality regimes; and (c) ratification of neutrality regimes can be facilitated by mutual and severe mistrust. Neutrality regimes need not be epiphenomenal to power politics; rather, they can support balance-of-power systems.     

Simbole in interkulturele kommunikasie

SUMMARY

The first part of this article: “Symbols as message-bearers” discusses the nature and occurrence of symbols, symbol systems and classifications, and the way these manifest a society's specific world view. Symbolic systems are paradigms in which certain concrete cultural constructions (eg. houses, meals, clothes etc.) occur as syntagms. The analysis of symbolic mechanisms grants access to a culture's unique constitution of meaning. Verbal and non-verbal communication symbols are briefly discussed.

The second part depicts the manifestation of symbols in certain cultural arrangements in which symbolization plays a great part, like myths, religion, art and rituals.

The final part maintains the use of symbol analysis as utilization of the cultural totality for intercultural communication. By involving the symbol system as well as the unique communication patterns, successful communication transcending intercultural boundaries, becomes more likely.     

Terrorism Analysis and Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project: The Missing Element

ABSTRACT

The decision in the case of Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project raised important issues about civil liberties in the United States (2010), including freedom of speech and freedom of association, in relation to U.S. foreign policy actions. While the decision has the potential to infringe on certain liberties, the decision itself was based on very limited information on the nature of terrorism, the foreign terrorist organizations involved, and the processes by which terrorist groups can be induced to peacefully re-enter domestic political systems. There are also concerns about what can be the arbitrary designation of groups as foreign terrorist organizations. These issues raise serious questions about the role of the Supreme Court in the overall political system and judgments in cases involving terrorism and foreign policy.     

The social responsibilities of information systems developers

ABSTRACT

Thesocial responsibilities of information systems developers are discussed against the background that information systems are social systems rather than technical systems. The notion of a human environment for the adoption and use of information systems is developed in order to show the importance of understanding this environment before the question of the social responsibility of information systems developers can even be addressed.     

1922 and the problems of docudrama

SUMMARY

In this article the authors use 1922, (a ‘true story’) to probe the social function of television in South Africa. In particular they examine the transformations effected on historical “fact” by the genre of docudrama and the kinds of preferred readings this offers television viewers. The popularity of this form, they suggest, is that in this world of uncertainty, the docudrama gives viewers both pleasurable access to, and a moral orientation towards, the ‘real’.     

Simulated foreign policy exchanges: A formal theory of foreign policy interaction (part II)

This article presents the underlying rationale for a theory of foreign policy dynamics, and is the second part of a two‐part series which specifies a theoretical perspective for explaining the exchanges between nations. The task of the first paper was to discuss the substantive thrust of the research, and to give a view of the Monte Carlo simulation which lies at its core. The theory deals with the relevance of such concepts as reciprocity, uncertainty, third party effects, bureaucratic politics and domestic events for explaining foreign policy. This article provides the axioms which structure our theory and formal theorems that follow from these axioms.     

Aids and political cartoons: a case study

ABSTRACT

Broadly, this article looks at the role played by political cartoons in the Aids struggle. A sample drawn from the period 1988 to 2001 was used for this study, the purpose of which is to discover how Aids has been represented in political cartoons published in major South African newspapers. Two sub-problems are identified. The first sub-problem looks at the frequency of Aids-related cartoons over the study period and follows a quantitative approach using content analysis. The second sub-problem considers the representation of Aids in cartoons and uses a qualitative approach through the application of semiotic analysis. This analysis is based on the interpretation of the sign system drawing on the iconic, indexical and symbolic elements in the cartoon. In conclusion, the value of political cartoons is debated. Political cartoons serve as an important adjunct to editorials, providing a summary of a certain situation or event. As a visual image, cartoons can instantly make a point that would be difficult to articulate in written text and often leave a lasting impressions on the reader. A problem in analysing political cartoons is the lack of definitive supportive theories. A model devised by Medhurst and Desousa, based on the assumption that the political cartoon is a rhetorical device, is used as the starting point.     

Back to the future: How Serbia is heading the way of post‐versailles Germany

This analogy written before Milosevic's ouster theorizes that Serbia in the aftermath of Kosovo mirrors Germany after 1919 as a nation forced to accept an imposed peace. From the evidence a resurgence of Serb nationalism and territorial ambition is still inevitable. Various parallels support this conclusion including the use of post‐war sanctions, demands to hand over a wanted war criminal and owe up to guilt, geographical fragmentation, political uncertainty, economic depression, and military association with Russia. The salient point remains one of oversight by the victors to acknowledge an ignominious settlement is the source of all grievances and patterns of instability.     

Repression,Grievances, Mobilization,and Rebellion: A New Test of Gurr’s Model of Ethnopolitical Rebellion

The concept of polarity has been subject to imprecise and often diverse use. This note explores problems associated with the varied use of the term and proposes an alternative approach to classifying international systems which treats horizontal and vertical dimensions of power as distinct structural variables. In this approach, the present system is distinguished from the classical balance of power system containing pluralized patterns of conflict on the one hand and from the Cold War system with a marked concentration of power on the other. In the contemporary system polarized patterns of conflict coexist with processes of power diffusion. To the extent polarizations persist in a more diffuse power setting, the decentralized power balancing system through which stability was sought in multipower systems cannot function‐nor are the polarized conflicts likely to be controlled as a result of the two‐power effort at balancing power which occurred during the post‐war period. The factors affecting the stability of the present system, it is suggested here, can be better understood by examining analogous structures in which processes of power diffusion occur in the context of polarized conflict and not as a result of spurious comparisons which mistake the diffusion of power for the pluralization of conflict.     

Whistleblowing as a new regulatory instrument in global governance: the case of tax evasion

Abstract

The cross-border impacts of whistleblowing recently have become far more visible and consequential, as evident with the ‘Paradise’ and ‘Panama Papers’ leaks, which exposed tax and other financial wrongdoings of prominent personalities around the world, leading to scandals, resignations and prosecutions. Despite its new prominence, whistleblowing often continues to be seen as a series of ad hoc chance acts. We argue instead that whistleblowing is an increasingly institutionalized regulatory tool that is enabled by an emergent ‘whistleblowing system’, with similarities to other new forms of informal global governance. Whistleblowing can be controversial, and we develop a framework for assessing whether any particular whistleblowing event and the system that enables it are in the public interest. We then apply this analysis to the case of global tax evasion. We conclude that a whistleblowing system can make important contributions to difficult cross-border regulatory challenges such as tax evasion, especially where other governance systems fail.     

Towards a holistic theory of speaker credibility

ABSTRACT

Recognising that the credibility of speakers is important, especially within the political context, this article argues that an adequate conceptualisation of the construct of speaker credibility is needed and that such a conceptualisation should be premised on an acceptable ethical framework. The article then evaluates the often used ethical systems and, subsequently, proposes criteria for ethically acceptable persuasive communication, to which political communication belongs. The major theoretical perspectives within which speaker credibility has been conceptualised, labelled structuralist, functionalist and constructivist, are critically evaluated. A holistic theoretical view of speaker credibility is then proposed, in which speaker credibility is understood as a construct with a hierarchically ordered stock of universal and context-specific dimensions of relational, content-related competence, performance and moral qualities.     

A journalism quarterly potpourri

Abstract

How do the news media help construct election mandates? By interpreting an election victory broadly, the news media can facilitate the implementation of a newly elected government's program. Conversely, the media can constrain a newly elected government by interpreting the election as influenced by factors other than ideology, primarily retrospective evaluations of the outgoing government's performance. Studies of how the media interpret election results have offered only speculation on why the media choose certain narratives while discarding plausible alternatives. Through a systematic examination of six Canadian elections, this article identifies key variables that explain the media's choices. I found that the media tended to confer a mandate when the victorious party focused on its policy intentions during the campaign and when the party was conservative; they tended to confer a “personal mandate” when newly elected leaders were facing their first election. In general, the news media quickly settled on one narrative, did not support this decision using quantitative data such as exit polls, and tended to depoliticize the public sphere by framing most results as devoid of ideological content.     

The gender of shopping malls

Abstract

This article investigates the historical alignment between women and shopping that dates from about the middle of the nineteenth century. During this time the masculine, modernist world of urban life was separated from the feminine, domestic sphere; this led to gendered perceptions about space and place. The split between male and female worlds led to representations of space that characterised certain spaces as male and others as female. This article shows how the nineteenth-century department store became a key location of middle-class female activity and identity formation, and demonstrates how this social spatialisation has been sustained by the contemporary shopping mall. Because malls are products of consumer capitalism, they embody ideologies and myths that support this dominant ideology; notions concerning gender, class, race, and space are hence grounded in the manner in which malls conceptualise and represent space. This article sites a gendered reading of South African shopping within the discourses of gender politics, (feminist) cultural geography and (visual) cultural studies, which attempt to unveil the spatial practices of contemporary society. The findings suggest that the social perception that shopping is women's work is upheld by current social practices.     

The smell of fried onions and other stories: a case study in a narrative understanding of multicultural competence

SUMMARY

The authors of this paper pose the question whether or not television has become the modern family hearth or gathering-place. The results of the investigations reported on, reveal that television viewing is primarily a family activity. It was also found that television viewing is not an exclusive act but that it is typically discontinuous and combined with other activities such as eating and talking. Television does not necessarily inhibit communication between family members: on the contrary, under certain circumstances it may serve as a strong stimulus to family communication. Television may therefore be said to have replaced the hearth or the dining-table as a gathering place for the family.     

THE INVISIBLE MINORITY

SUMMARY

The object of this article is to illustrate the extent to which continuing education can be applied as a public relations instrument in alumni relations. Alumni as a prime target group in any university's public relations programme can exert an influence on the university. Apart from their own direct involvement in the canvassing of funds and students, alumni can also exert a meaningful influence in the interest of the university as opinion leaders and decision-makers within the community.

In carrying out a public relations programme, the public relations instruments must be made available to the university in such a way that alumni may be reached to best advantage. The connection between alumni and their university must be strengthened by involving them substantially in the prime concern of the institution – namely education.

In the article, it is suggested that continuing educational programmes aimed at alumni are ideal public relations instruments for supplementing existing programmes.     

Communication machines and the panopticon

SUMMARY

A discussion on Jeremy Bentham's views on the construction of prisons and other public buildings such as hospitals, alms houses and barracks. His views were essentially concerned with how, in these buildings, there is always the constant and omnipresent vigilante guarding the occupants. Bentham's ideas of the Panopticon were originally applied to the construction of a transparent circular prison with the vigilante situated in the middle constantly inspecting ther prisoners. In this article it is discussed how such a philosophy can be applied to a society which consists of the ever visual and omnipresence of guards, where everyone is inspected by everyone.

Bentham's ideas are prophetic and directly linked to communicology in that he shows how communication can be manipulated by sight.     

Mythological representation in popular culture today

Abstract

Mythologies that reside and operate within popular culture representations and the mass communications media reveal valuable insights into the way in which audiences are conditioned to interact with the social world. These myths require critical attention, and an understanding of contemporary myths should be established, as myths (being residents of the popular mass media) are decoded on a near constant basis by audiences.

This article addresses selected mythological representations in popular culture mass media, in order to examine the nature and societal functions of myths. Part of the importance of deconstructing contemporary myths is constituted by the myth's fictional content. While myths function to inform individuals of acceptable societal behaviour and contribute to an ordered social environment, they can also function negatively to represent negative connotative meanings about certain social groups or issues.

The importance of myth is therefore paramount, but the wealth of mythical nuances that could potentially receive critical attention is multitudinous. This article aims simply to uncover some insights into mass media mythological functionalities as a starting point for investigation.     

Complying with Human Rights

ABSTRACT

The empirical assessment of how signatories of human rights conventions comply with their obligations has, so far, yielded conflicting results, especially regarding the compliance mechanisms that are the most promising to ensure improving human rights records. We argue that this is due to the fact that differences in compliance systems have been neglected and that different compliance mechanisms have been assessed in isolation, without considering possible interactions. To analyze this argument, we propose a novel way to assess the effect of these mechanisms by relying on a Markov-transition model. Our results show that human rights violations are time dependent and that the effect of independent variables is conditional on previous human rights violations as well as on the strength of human rights compliance systems.     

Public Opinion,Foreign Policy,and the Security Balance in the Taiwan Strait

The delicate security balance in the Taiwan Strait is threatened on several fronts. In Taiwan, democratization has placed Taiwan independence as one of the most salient issues in its domestic politics, and the rise of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party to power has created uncertainty regarding Taiwan's future policy on the Taiwan independence-unification issue. In this paper, we investigate whether external factors such as China's military threat and the United States' security commitment to Taiwan can affect the development of the Taiwan independence movement. An interesting finding from our analysis is approximately one-third of the people in Taiwan can agree simultaneously on two seemingly contradictory issues: to unite with China if China becomes democratic and to declare independence if China will not use force and peace can be maintained. Voters in Taiwan with conditional preferences create opportunities for China and the United States to formulate foreign policy that will restrain Taiwan's drive toward independence.