Crime Trends in Western Europe from 1990 to 2000

This paper analyses the evolution of police recorded crime rates for nine offences (intentional homicide, assault, rape, robbery, theft, vehicle theft, burglary, domestic burglary, and drug offences) over the period 1990–2000 in 16 Western European Countries. The analysis shows that there was an increase in drug and violent offences, while property offences reached a peak at the beginning of the 1990s and started decreasing afterwards. The evolution of property offences can be related to the emergence of a large black market for stolen goods in Central and Eastern Europe at the beginning of the time series, while by the end of it that market was saturated and there had also been a reinforcement of police measures in the frontiers and of security measures in Western European households. The increase in drug offences is correlated to the rise of drug use in Europe shown by other indicators, and can be related to an increased availability of drugs in European markets. Finally, the upward trend in violent offences can be explained partially by gang struggles over the control of illegal markets and by the consolidation of problematic neighbourhoods, but seems also due to a large extent of increase in the reporting of violent offences by their victims and the recording of such offences by the police. The analysis shows that opportunity-based theories provide a satisfactory explanation of the trends in recorded crime, and that the crime opportunities are heavily influenced by socio-economical factors.Versions of this paper were presented at the 3rd Annual Conference of the European Society of Criminology (Helsinki, August 27–30, 2003) and at the Societies of Criminology 1st Key Issues Conference (Paris, May 13–15, 2004). The paper was written during a stay at the Max Planck Institute for Foreign and International Criminal Law (Freiburg imBreisgau, Germany) made possible through the support of Swiss National Science Foundation     

Trends in Police-recorded Offences

This article presents 10-year trends (1998–2007) on some common crimes: homicide, assault, rape, robbery, car theft, domestic burglary and drug offences. In addition, a few less common offences in police statistics, such as money laundering, corruption, offences against computer data and systems are discussed, even though trends of these crimes are not available. Trends are shown from Western, Central and Eastern Europe, where significant sociopolitical changes have occurred. Although police data actually describes more the recording practices of the officials than the amount of crime, police data is highly valuable for research purposes. Most countries continuously collect information about police activity, and the police is mostly the starting point for proceeding with a case in the criminal justice system. In the USA, all common offences recorded by the police have decreased during the recent years. In Europe, property crimes, homicide and robbery have decreased in most countries, but violence and drug crimes have increased. According to the crime victim surveys, the increase in assault cannot be explained by the increasing reporting activity of victims; the increase seems real. The level of crime differs considerably in different areas: for instance, homicide is most common in Eastern Europe, but assault is much higher in Western Europe.     

Aoristic Signatures and the Spatio-Temporal Analysis of High Volume Crime Patterns

The spatial analysis of crime and the current focus on hotspots has pushed the area of crime mapping to the fore, especially in regard to high volume offenses such as vehicle theft and burglary. Hotspots also have a temporal component, yet police recorded crime databases rarely record the actual time of offense as this is seldom known. Police crime data tends, more often than not, to reflect the routine activities of the victims rather than the offense patterns of the offenders. This paper demonstrates a technique that uses police START and END crime times to generate a crime occurrence probability at any given time that can be mapped or visualized graphically. A study in the eastern suburbs of Sydney, Australia, demonstrates that crime hotspots with a geographical proximity can have distinctly different temporal patterns.     

Gateway to Reform? Policy Implications of Police Officers’ Attitudes Toward Rape

Research has shown that prosecutors rely more heavily on victim characteristics and other extralegal factors than on criteria set forth by the law, when evaluating the merits of a rape case. Little is known, however, about the factors police officers use when assessing the merits of a rape case. The current study contributes to what is known about police officers’ attitudes toward rape. A survey was administered to 891 sworn police officers in two states in the southeastern United States. The surveys were designed to assess police officers’ acceptance of rape myths. Police officers who accept more rape myths were less likely to believe victims who did not adhere to the stereotyped “genuine victim.” This research contributes to what is known about the factors affecting police officers’ decision-making in rape cases. This study has implications for assessing the effectiveness of rape law reforms, inasmuch as these reforms are conveyed through police work.     

Racial segregation and property crime: Examining the mediating effect of police strength

Research has not yet considered the relationship between property crime and segregation and the influence of police strength on the association of segregation and crime. To address these issues, this article examines the association of racial segregation with burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft for 1990. The results reveal that segregation is significantly and positively associated with all three measures of property crime. When data on police strength are introduced into the models, segregation-crime coefficients are significantly attenuated, and two are rendered nonsignificant, providing evidence that the segregation-property crime association is at least partly mediated through police strength.     

Spousal violence: Police officer attitudes and arrest response

Conclusion On the 15 propositions, three propositions were found to support the general hypothesis. The findings indicate that as police officers showed an increase in attitudes supporting spousal violence the following occurred: (a) “frequent calls for police assistance from the household” became less important to police officers who were deciding to arrest; (b) “Jail overcrowding” became more important to police officers who were deciding not to arrest; and (c) “participant’s first encounter with the police” became more important to police officers who were deciding not to arrest. The other 12 propositions did not support the general hypothesis which suggested that the priority of all extralegal factors would relate to the ABUSE score.     

Risk Clusters,Hotspots, and Spatial Intelligence: Risk Terrain Modeling as an Algorithm for Police Resource Allocation Strategies

The study reported here follows the suggestion by Caplan et al. (Justice Q, 2010) that risk terrain modeling (RTM) be developed by doing more work to elaborate, operationalize, and test variables that would provide added value to its application in police operations. Building on the ideas presented by Caplan et al., we address three important issues related to RTM that sets it apart from current approaches to spatial crime analysis. First, we address the selection criteria used in determining which risk layers to include in risk terrain models. Second, we compare the “best model” risk terrain derived from our analysis to the traditional hotspot density mapping technique by considering both the statistical power and overall usefulness of each approach. Third, we test for “risk clusters” in risk terrain maps to determine how they can be used to target police resources in a way that improves upon the current practice of using density maps of past crime in determining future locations of crime occurrence. This paper concludes with an in depth exploration of how one might develop strategies for incorporating risk terrains into police decision-making. RTM can be developed to the point where it may be more readily adopted by police crime analysts and enable police to be more effectively proactive and identify areas with the greatest probability of becoming locations for crime in the future. The targeting of police interventions that emerges would be based on a sound understanding of geographic attributes and qualities of space that connect to crime outcomes and would not be the result of identifying individuals from specific groups or characteristics of people as likely candidates for crime, a tactic that has led police agencies to be accused of profiling. In addition, place-based interventions may offer a more efficient method of impacting crime than efforts focused on individuals.     

Conviction Statistics as an Indicator of Crime Trends in Europe from 1990 to 2006

Convictions statistics were the first criminal statistics available in Europe during the nineteenth century. Their main weaknesses as crime measures and for comparative purposes were identified by Alphonse de Candolle in the 1830s. Currently, they are seldom used by comparative criminologists, although they provide a less valid but more reliable measure of crime and formal social control than police statistics. This article uses conviction statistics, compiled from the four editions of the European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics, to study the evolution of persons convicted in European countries from 1990 to 2006. Trends in persons convicted for six offences –intentional homicide, assault, rape, robbery, theft, and drug offences– and up to 26 European countries are analysed. These trends are established for the whole of Europe as well as for a cluster of Western European countries and a cluster of Central and Eastern European countries. The analyses show similarities between both regions of Europe at the beginning and at the end of the period under study. After a general increase of the rate of persons convicted in the early 1990s in the whole of Europe, trends followed different directions in Western and in Central and Eastern Europe. However, during the 2000s, it can be observed, throughout Europe, a certain stability of the rates of persons convicted for intentional homicides, accompanied by a general decrease of the rate of persons convicted for property offences, and an increase of the rate of those convicted for drug offences. The latter goes together with an increase of the rate of persons convicted for non lethal violent offences, which only reached some stability at the end of the time series. These trends show that there is no general crime drop in Europe. After a discussion of possible theoretical explanations, a multifactor model, inspired by opportunity-based theories, is proposed to explain the trends observed.     

Feelings of Safety In The Presence Of the Police,Security Guards,and Police Volunteers

Uniformed presence is commonly thought to create feelings of safety in people. However, do differently uniformed people contribute to an equal amount of safety and are there situation-dependent differences? The present study examined the association between various types of uniformed presence and people’s feelings of safety through a questionnaire among 352 respondents (18–86 years) (49.1 % women). The questionnaire contained pictures of situations perceived as relatively safe and unsafe with or without uniformed presence. The respondents estimated how safe they thought they would feel in these situations with no uniformed presence, two police officers, six police officers, a police vehicle, two security guards, or two police volunteers. Results showed that uniformed presence did not increase feelings of safety in a situation perceived as relatively safe, making patrol unnecessary. In situations perceived as relatively unsafe however, all types of uniformed presence increased feelings of safety. Foot patrolling police contributed to the greatest increase in feelings of safety. Security guards and police volunteers created similar amounts of feelings of safety making police volunteers a cost-effective alternative. All types of foot patrol were better than vehicle patrol, making non-police groups an alternative to vehicle patrol. Some situational, gender, and age differences were found.     

The influence of collective bargaining on large police agency salaries: 1990–2000

Collective bargaining between police management and unions is an important process that determines many aspects of police work, particularly the monetary benefits for line officers like salary and fringe benefits. Working with limited budgets, police administrators who engage in collective bargaining are obligated to negotiate with union representatives over wage benefits while attempting to maintain adequate financial resources toward other police operations. Though students of policing learn that police unions try very hard to increase economic reward for their members there is limited research on the effectiveness of their efforts. Since economic benefits are the primary focus of police unions, it is important; therefore, to evaluate the impact that collective bargaining has on salaries earned by police personnel. This study examines this issue by combining four waves of the Law Enforcement Management and Administration Statistics for the period 1990–2000. Pooled time series analyses reveal that large organizations that engaged in collective bargaining had higher minimum wages for officers during the period. As predicted, collective bargaining did not affect minimum chief’s salaries.     

From the economy of deficit to the black-market: car theft and trafficking in Bulgaria

Official and victimisation data show that despite falling rates for motor vehicle thefts, much of the EU ‘organized crime’ related thefts have remained almost stable. Nevertheless, the car-theft market in the EU has changed, and so has the role of traditional destinations for stolen vehicles, such as Eastern Europe. The paper examines the demand, supply, and regulation factors that shape the structures of the vehicle theft market in Bulgaria, and smuggling patterns and offender behaviour in source countries, in particular Spain. We argue that such nuanced historical approach that takes into account a wider range of factors in destination countries can help explain the recent transformations in Europe’s vehicle-theft markets.

ARE UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS A VALID INDICATOR OF THE INDEX CRIMES? AN AFFIRMATIVE ANSWER WITH MINOR QUALIFICATIONS*

For more than two decades, the validity and reliability of official statistics on crime have been treated as highly questionable. Recently a number of studies have investigated the construction of official statistics on crime and issues related to their reliability and validity. However, there has been no recent attempt to bring together and evaluate these studies; thus, we do not know what official statistics mean and how we should interpret them. In the present paper it is argued that it is now possible to develop an understanding of what official statistics measure. It appears that both citizens and the police are in general agreement about what a serious crime is: it involves bodily injury (or serious threat of bodily injury), the property stolen is of high value, the act is committed by a stranger, or it involves breaking and entering. The authors argue that the perceived seriousness of the crime, first and primarily as defined by the victim, second as determined by the police, apparently accounts for most of the variance in whether a crime is reported and officially recorded; personal characteristics of the offender and victim have only minor effects. It is concluded that the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), as measured by the FBI Index of Crime, are valid indicators of serious crimes as defined by the citizenry. The evidence supporting this conclusion is very substantial with regard to motor vehicle theft, robbery, burglary, and homicide, while with larceny, rape, and aggravated assault, the evidence supporting this conclusion is substantial but does require the interpretation of conflicting evidence.     

Credit card fraud under Chinese criminal law

Credit card fraud is a new type of fraud amended into the Criminal Law of China in 1997. The “credit card” under credit card fraud is interpreted as a very board concept, which includes debit card and virtually all electronic payment cards used in ordinary payment, credit loan, transfer and settlement of account, cash deposit and withdrawal. Therefore, it is necessary for the legislature to revise “credit card” under this special fraud into “electronic payment card,” and “credit card fraud” into “electronic payment card fraud,” which will be understood easily and precisely. “Use” and “fraudulent use” of credit card under this fraud is defined as ordinary use of credit card, including withdrawal cash with authentic or forged credit card from ATMs. It is unreasonable to define “malicious overdraft” as a form of credit card fraud under the Chinese Criminal Law. In the future amendment, this kind of criminal conduct shall be separated as independent named as “malicious overdraft” or “abuse of credit card” under the Criminal Law with less stiff statutory punishment than that of credit card fraud. Besides, under the Chinese Criminal Law, stealing credit card and using it is held as “theft,” which is neither reasonable nor logical. Therefore, it should be revised in the future criminal law.     

REPORTING CRIME TO THE POLICE, 1973–2005: A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM TRENDS IN THE NATIONAL CRIME SURVEY (NCS) AND NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY (NCVS)*

Although many efforts have been made during the past several decades to increase the reporting of crime to the police, we know little about the nature of long-term crime-reporting trends. Most research in this area has been limited to specific crime types (e.g., sexual assault), or it has not taken into account possible changes in the characteristics of incidents associated with police notification. In this article, we advance knowledge about long-term trends in the reporting of crime to the police by using data from the National Crime Survey (NCS) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and methods that take into account possible changes in the factors that affect reporting at the individual and incident level as well as changes in survey methodology. Using data from 1973 to 2005, our findings show that significant increases have occurred in the likelihood of police notification for sexual assault crimes as well as for other forms of assault and that these increases were observed for violence against women and violence against men, stranger and nonstranger violence, as well as crimes experienced by members of different racial and ethnic groups. The reporting of property victimization (i.e., motor vehicle theft, burglary, and larceny) also increased across time. Overall, observed increases in crime reporting account for about half of the divergence between the NCVS and the Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) in the estimated magnitude of the 1990s crime decline—a result that highlights the need to corroborate findings about crime trends from multiple data sources.     

An investigation into the differentiating characteristics between car key burglars and regular burglars

Car key burglary has recently become the focus of empirical investigation as offenders, no longer able to steal vehicles without first obtaining their keys, resort to "burgling" target properties. Research surrounding the modus operandi of these offenses is beginning to emerge; however, little attention has been paid to investigating the characteristics of car key burglary offenders. Challenging the assumption that car key burglary offenses are perpetrated by regular burglars, this study aims to differentiate between offenders. Logistic regression analysis of 110 car key and 110 regular burglary offenders revealed that car key burglars are more likely to have previous vehicle theft convictions and are also more likely to be detected on information supplied to the police than regular burglars. Regular burglars are more likely to have previous shoplifting convictions. It was concluded that car key burglars are a distinct sample of offenders and the implications of these findings are discussed.     

Predicting and Preventing the Theft of Electronic Products

The research presented within this paper was conducted as part of a 2-year project (Project MARC) to develop and render operational a mechanism to assess the risk of theft of electronic products. Clarke and Newman (Secured goods by design - a plan for security coding of electronic products. London: Department of Trade and Industry, 2002) proposed the use of two checklists—one to measure vulnerability, the other to measure security—as a means of categorising products according to their vulnerability to theft. Consultation with key stakeholders yielded the common view that such a mechanism was worth pursuing, but that it must reflect the language of those who would use it. An extensive consultation with stakeholders from ten European member states ensued. Participants were asked to rate a range of electronic products in terms of vulnerability and security, and to explain their ratings. Their responses were used to develop two checklists that incorporate a variety of factors, weighted according to the frequency with which they were expressed. The crime vulnerability checklist developed within this paper is judged fit-for-purpose as a provisional measurement but we urge caution in relation to the security checklist.

Vehicle stops by police for driving while Black: Common problems and some tentative solutions

A common set of problems currently surround analysis of vehicle stops by police for what has come to be called “driving while Black.” These common problems range from an exclusive focus on contemporary police practices to possible differences in the driving behavior of African Americans and Whites. The present research used observer-reported data from “Midwest City” at the start of the 1970s to propose and illustrate tentative solutions to the common problems that currently surround analysis of race and vehicle stops by police. The article concludes with discussion of the tentative solutions and the implications that follow from them.     

The Impact of Psychological Consequences of Rape on Rape Case Attrition: The Police Perspective

This paper examines whether the psychological sequelae of rape relate to rape case attrition by leading police to see the victim as less reliable. A mixed methods approach with two linked studies, one qualitative and one quantitative, was used. In Study 1, the qualitative study, interviews with 12 specialist police officers were analysed using Framework Analysis. In Study 2, the quantitative study, 76 specialist officers completed an online questionnaire to assess the generalisability of Study 1’s findings. In Study 1, officers’ perceptions of victims clustered into three stereotypes, which we label “the real victim”, “the mad discloser”, and “the bad discloser”. Victims who exhibited signs of shame, self-blame, and post-traumatic stress reactions which impeded their ability to give a coherent account of the rape were perceived as less reliable “mad” or “bad” victims. The findings of Study 2 supported these results. Although police interview strategies have improved in recent years, there is evidence that signs of trauma and shame in the victim are sometimes misinterpreted as signs of lying. This may affect attrition by impacting on victim-officer relationships. Further training on recognising trauma and understanding its consequences is recommended both for specialist officers and front-line staff.     

A city-level analysis of property crime clearance rates

Theft, burglary, and vehicle theft are among the most frequently committed and least commonly cleared Part I offenses in the United States, but have received disproportionately little attention in the clearance literature. This study contributes to recent efforts to remedy this shortage by presenting offense-specific analyses of burglary, larceny, and vehicle theft clearance rates in a sample of 110 large US cities. Data were gathered from the Uniform Crime Report, the Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics survey, and the American Community Survey. Independent variables comprised social disorganization measures (e.g. residential instability, poverty, etc.) and policing variables, including the use of broken windows policing. Although broken windows policing is related to higher clearance rates in a few prior studies, that effect was not observed in the present work. Racial diversity and police spending per capita (which were negatively associated with clearance rates) were the only variables that were significantly associated with the clearance of all three crimes.