DETERMINATE SENTENCING AND ABOLISHING PAROLE: THE LONG-TERM IMPACTS ON PRISONS AND CRIME*

We estimate the impact of determinate sentencing laws (DSLs) on prison commitments, prison populations, and Uniform Crime Report crime rates. Ten states enacted these laws between 1976 and 1984; all abolished parole and most established presumptive sentences. The research uses a multiple time-series design that, among other benefits, controls for national trends and facilitates the use of control variables. We found that DSLs are clearly associated with prison population growth in only one state, Indiana, and with major reductions in two, Minnesota and Washington. The remaining laws show no evidence of increasing populations and may have reduced them somewhat. The estimated impacts on commitments are similarly varied. There is little or no evidence that DSLs affect crime. Earlier studies evaluating individual DSLs are often criticized for poor research designs, and our findings support the criticisms.     

GUN CONTROL LEGISLATION: Impact and Ideology

This analysis attempts to measure the impact of state laws upon the rates of gun violence. While controlling for several standard social phenomena and using two different statistical techniques, it appears that laws governing the use of handguns in the various states have little effect on the rates of gun crime. It is suggested that the possible reason for such ineffectiveness is not necessasrily the nature of the solutions (laws), but rather the misunderstanding of the problem (gun violence) by policy implementers.     

THE IMPACT OF OUT-OF-STATE PRISON POPULATION ON STATE HOMICIDE RATES: DISPLACEMENT AND FREE-RIDER EFFECTS*

Past studies of the impact of prison population on homicide rates have produced widely divergent results. Those using state-level data find small impacts, but those using national data find very large ones. We use displacement/free-rider theory to explore the difference between these results. Displacement, in the current context, refers to a criminal's movement away from states with higher imprisonment rates. Free riding occurs when a state benefits from criminals being incarcerated in other states. If the displacement effect holds, a state's prison population has a stronger impact on crime within the state than would be accomplished by deterrence and incapacitation alone. If the free-rider effect holds, higher prison populations outside the state reduce homicide in the state because criminals are incapacitated elsewhere. Using vital statistics data for 1929 to 1992, we conduct separate homicide regressions for each state using both in-state and out-of-state prison population as independent variables. We find that the out-of-state variable has a much larger (negative) association with homicide, indicating substantial free riding. We also find evidence of a small displacement impact.     

Prison population growth and crime reduction

The impact of state prison populations on crime is typically estimated by applying the lambda, the individual crime rate, of prisoners or arrestees. We outline the problems with this approach, attempt to reanalyze the widely divergent lambdas derived in past research, and make adjustments necessary to use lambdas for estimating the incapacitation impact. The result is an uncertain estimate of 16 to 25 index crimes averted per year per each additional prisoner. We argue that regression analysis can provide a better estimate of the impact of prison population growth. Applying the Granger test to pooled state data over 19 years, we found that prison population growth leads to lower crime rates but that crime rate changes have little or no short-term impact on prison population growth. Next we regressed crime rates on prison population and conclude that, on average, at least 17 index crimes are averted per additional prisoner. The impact is limited mainly to property crime.     

Crime Reduction and the Length of Prison Sentences

The issue discussed is whether policies of imposing increasingly lengthy prison sentences on serious criminal offenders reduce crime. The empirical evidence for the deterrence and incapacitation effects of incarceration is first examined and found to be of limited help in answering the question whether lengthy prison sentences reduce crime. Conceptual and normative analysis of deterrence and incapacitation suggest that we have little reason to believe that the general use of lengthy prison terms produces more good than harm for society, especially if the burdens of and alternatives to such prison terms are taken into account.     

Crime,cash, and limited options: Explaining the prison boom*

Research Summary An analysis of a state panel of prison populations from 1977 to 2005 shows that the best predictors of prison populations are crime, sentencing policy, prison crowding, and state spending. Prison populations grew at roughly the same rate and during the same periods as spending on education, welfare, health and hospitals, highways, parks, and natural resources. Current and lagged values of state spending on prison construction also accounted for a substantial amount of variation in subsequent prison populations. Public opinion, partisan politics, the electoral cycle, and social threats seem to have had little effect on the number of prisoners. Policy Implications The availability of publicly acceptable alternatives to incarceration may not be sufficient to reverse course. Federal funding of alternatives—but not prisons—would provide states with the financial incentive to reduce prison populations.     

Street justice: Some micro-moral reservations: Comment on sykes

Research on the use of incapacitation strategies to reduce crime has increased rapidly in the last decade. Estimates of the crime reduction potential are numerous and variable, reflecting different assumptions by researchers. This paper reviews and synthesizes studies of collective and selective incapacitation. Sentencing practices in the 1970s and early 1980s prevented an estimated 10 to 30 percent of potential crimes through collective incapacitation strategies. Greater use of incarceration, such as through mandatory minimum sentences, would prevent additional crimes, but prison populations would increase substantially. Selective incapacitation strategies target a small group of convicted offenders, those who are predicted to commit serious crimes at high rates, for incarceration. These high-rate serious offenders, however, are difficult to identify accurately with information currently available in official criminal history records. Preliminary research, assuming moderate accuracy, suggests that selective incapacitation may prevent some crimes, such as 5 to 10 percent of robberies by adults, but increases in prison populations would result. The future of selective incapacitation is discussed in light of current research and knowledge about serious criminal activity.     

“Striking out” as crime reduction policy: The impact of “three strikes” laws on crime rates in U.S. cities

During the 1990s, in response to public dissatisfaction over what were perceived as ineffective crime reduction policies, 25 states and Congress passed three strikes laws, designed to deter criminal offenders by mandating significant sentence enhancements for those with prior convictions. Few large-scale evaluations of the impact of these laws on crime rates, however, have been conducted. Our study used a multiple time series design and UCR data from 188 cities with populations of 100,000 or more for the two decades from 1980 to 2000. We found, first, that three strikes laws are positively associated with homicide rates in cities in three strikes states and, second, that cities in three strikes states witnessed no significant reduction in crime rates.     

More Sanctions – Less Prison? A Research Note on the Severity of Sanctions Proposed by Survey Participants and how it is Affected by the Option to Combine a Prison Term with Other Sanctions

Public opinion has come to be given an increasingly important role in the crime policy debate of western countries. The task of problematising different pictures that emerges from different studies of public opinion on appropriate sentences thus becomes an important task. In this article the question is whether survey respondents, in their choice of reactions to crime, tend to propose shorter prison sentences when they combine the prison term with other measures? If so, different response instructions can lead to different conclusions as to what survey participants consider to be appropriate sentences. Earlier research points at such tendencies to some extent. In order to examine this question, two comparisons will be made. In the first, survey respondents who chose to combine a prison sentence with other measures is compared with those who chose to propose a prison sentence as the only sanction. In the second, participant who were instructed to only propose a single sanction will be compared with those who were given the opportunity to combine two sanctions. Both comparisons are made with regard to the lengths of the proposed prison sentences. No systematic differences emerge. The correlation between the length of prison term proposed and the choice, or opportunity given, to combine the prison term with other measures varies, for example, across the different offences examined. The choice of appropriate reactions to crime is based on a more advanced deliberation than whether different sanctions may be combined.     

Prisons and Crime, Backwards in High Heels

Objectives

Prisons reduce crime rates, but crime increases prison populations. OLS estimates of the effects of prisons on crime combine the two effects and are biased toward zero. The standard solution—to identify the crime equation by finding instruments for prison—is suspect, because most variables that predict prison populations can be expected to affect crime, as well. An alternative is to identify the prison equation by finding instruments for crime, allowing an unbiased estimate of the effect of crime on prisons. Because the two coefficients in a simultaneous system are related through simple algebra, we can then work backward to obtain an unbiased estimate of the effect of prisons on crime.

Methods

Potential instruments for crime are tested and used to identify the prison equation for the 50 U.S. states for the period 1978–2009. The effect of prisons on crime consistent with this relationship is obtained through algebra; standard errors are obtained through Monte Carlo simulation.

Results

Resulting estimates of the effect of prisons on crime are around ?0.25 ± 0.15. This is larger than biased OLS estimates, but similar in size to previous estimates based on standard instruments.

Conclusions

When estimating the effect of a public policy response on a public problem, it may be more productive to find instruments for the problem and work backward than to find instruments for the response and work forward.     

Examining the relationship between religiosity and self-control as predictors of prison deviance

The relationship between religiosity and crime has been the subject of much empirical debate and testing over the past 40 years. Some investigators have argued that observed relationships between religion and crime may be spurious because of self-control, arousal, or social control factors. The present study offers the first investigation of religiosity, self-control, and deviant behavior in the prison context. We use survey data from a sample of 208 recently paroled male inmates to test the impact of religiosity and self-control on prison deviance. The results indicate that two of the three measures of religiosity may be spurious predictors of prison deviance after accounting for self-control. Participation in religious services is the only measure of religiosity to significantly reduce the incidence of prison deviance when controlling for demographic factors, criminal history, and self-control. We conclude with implications for future studies of religiosity, self-control, and deviance in the prison context.     

The impact of state sentencing policies on the U.S. prison population

This article examines the aggregate effects of neoclassical sentencing reforms on three often contested outcomes of these reforms. The rate of new court commitments, the average length of time inmates serve, and prison population rates across the fifty U.S. states and the District of Columbia are examined. Data from 1973 to 1998 across these jurisdictions are analyzed using hierarchical multivariate linear models (HMLM). Results show that on the aggregate, sentencing reforms are not directly related to changes in state prison populations; however, abolition of parole is negatively associated with state prison population rates. Two types of sentencing reforms, the voluntary sentencing guidelines and the ‘three-strikes’ laws are indirectly related to changes in prison populations and have opposite influences on rates of new court commitments. Of six sentencing practices examined, not one is associated with length of incarceration. These results do not support the contention that neoclassical changes to the nation's sentence policies account for the rapid increase in the state prison populations between the early 1970s and late 1990s.     

Regulation of Firearm Dealers in the United States: An Analysis of State Law and Opportunities for Improvement

Firearms were associated with 30, 136 deaths in the United States in 2003. Most guns are initially sold to the public through a network of retail dealers. Licensed firearm dealers are an important source of guns for criminals and gun traffickers. Just one percent of licensed dealers were responsible for more than half of all guns traced to crime. Federal law makes it difficult for ATF to inspect and revoke the licenses of problem gun dealers. State licensing systems, however, are a greatly under-explored opportunity for firearm dealer oversight. We identify and categorize these state systems to identify opportunities for interventions to prevent problem dealers from supplying guns to criminals, juveniles, or gun traffickers. Just seventeen states license gun dealers. Twenty-three states permit routine inspections of dealers but only two mandate that those inspections occur on a regular basis. Twenty-six states impose record-keeping requirements for gun sales. Only thirteen states require some form of store security measures to minimize firearm theft. We conclude with recommendations for a comprehensive system of state licensing and oversight of gun dealers. Our findings can be useful for the coalition of more than fifty U.S. mayors that recently announced it would work together to combat illegal gun trafficking.     

Vice is Nice But Incest is Best: The Problem of a Moral Taboo

Incest is a crime in most societies. In the United States, incest is punishable in almost every state with sentences going as far as 20 and 30 years in prison, and even a life sentence. Yet the reasons traditionally proffered in justification of criminalization of incest—respecting religion and universal tradition; avoiding genetic abnormalities; protecting the family unit; preventing sexual abuse and sexual imposition; and precluding immorality—at a close examination, reveal their under- and over-inclusiveness, inconsistency or outright inadequacy. It appears that the true reason behind the long history of the incest laws is the feeling of repulsion and disgust this tabooed practice tends to evoke in the majority of population. However, in the absence of wrongdoing, neither a historic taboo nor the sense of repulsion and disgust legitimizes criminalization of an act.     

Influences on the Prisoner Rate: Number of Entries into Prison, Length of Sentences and Crime Rate

On the basis of the data contained in the European Sourcebook, this article tries to answer the question: 'What influences the prisoner rate most? The number of entries into prison, the length of sentences, or the crime rate?' The authors show that the crime rate is absolutely not correlated with the prisoner rate. The latter depends principally on the length of the imposed custodial sanctions and secondly on the number of those imposed prison sentences. Nevertheless, there are some indications suggesting that these results could be different from one type of offence to another. Unfortunately, this hypothesis could not be tested on the basis of the European Sourcebook data.     

WHEN THE COST IS TOO GREAT: THE EMOTIONAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT ON CHILDREN OF INCARCERATING THEIR PARENTS FOR DRUG OFFENCES1

The advent of the modern “war on drugs” and its accompanying “lock 'em up and throw away the key” crime policies largely explain the evolution of mass incarceration in the U.S. and account for much of the emotional and psychological pain caused to children who have lost their parents to long prison sentences. It is by reducing reliance on incarceration to tackle the “drug problem” in the United States that there will be a positive impact on reducing the number of parents being separated from their children for inordinate amounts of time, thereby potentially reducing the negative emotional and psychological impact on children. Aiding parents combat their addiction outside of prison walls is perhaps to most sensible criminal justice policy in addressing the needs of children who are caught in the cross‐fire of the war on drugs. In the meantime, as policy makers review, assess, and, eventually, reform draconian drug laws and sentencing policies, it is imperative that front‐line service providers who work with children and family and juvenile court judges be mindful of the emotional and psychological impact that parental incarceration has on youth. A more in‐depth understanding of the complexities of these young people's life experiences will hopefully enable the development of appropriate support services.     

The belief that guns deter crime and support for capital punishment

One of the many reasons for gun ownership in the USA is the belief that citizen gun ownership helps to reduce crime. The rationale for this belief can be linked to deterrence – the perception that the threat of harm from confronting someone with a gun outweighs the potential benefit from crime – and will reduce the likelihood of engaging in criminal behavior. Similarly, deterrence is often referenced as a reason to support capital punishment. This is the first study to explicitly link support for the individual threat of lethal violence and the state threat of lethal violence by testing the hypothesis that the belief that guns reduce crime is positively correlated with support for capital punishment. Tests using a 2010 survey support this hypothesis for general support of capital punishment and for support of capital punishment with the life without parole option. The theoretical implications of considering deterrence as a value-expressive argument are explored.     

The benefit and cost of prison in the UK. The results of a model of lifetime re-offending

With prisons in the UK reaching full capacity, and with similar trends in other European countries and the USA, there is much political debate about the efficacy of prison and community sentences. This paper aims to inform this debate by testing the hypothesis that prisons are an effective and efficient way of reducing re-offending. A rapid review of effectiveness studies was performed to determine the relative impact of prison and community sentences on re-offending. An economic analysis was undertaken to transform the estimates of effect into estimates of the economic efficiency of alternative sentencing options in the context of the UK. When compared with standard prison sentences, a number of community-based interventions and enhancements of standard prison sentences were found to save money, both for the public sector and for society more broadly. Diverting adult offenders from standard prison sentences to alternative interventions saves the UK public sector between ￡19,000 and ￡88,000 per offender. When victim costs are considered, diverting offenders from standard prison sentences saves UK society between ￡17,500 and ￡203,000 per offender. It was concluded that standard prison sentences are not an economically efficient means for reducing re-offending.

Economic cycles and punishment: Unemployment and imprisonment

Research on the relations between the labor market and forms of punishment, inaugurated by Rusche, has developed along two lines, broadly speaking: first, the historical evolution of the links between the structure of the labor market and the structure of punishment and secondly, the conjunctural variations in admissions to prison and in prison populations with fluctuations in the employment situation. The present study is of the latter type. It stems from observations on two aspects of the French situation:

The concomitant long-term evolution (1875–1985) of curves for unemployment and for prison populations, given the downward trend in imprisonment rates until recent years.

The constant over-representation, among prisoners, of groups whose position on the labor market is insecure.

The link between unemployment and imprisonment was tested by multiple regression using data on economic, demographic, penal and correctional aspects (French figures, 1920–1985). The results show the participation of demographic factors in the variations in prison populations. They point to a significant correlation between variations in unemployment (in volume and rate) and the evolution of prison populations, all else being equal in terms of recorded crime. Analysis of the functioning of the criminal justice system, showing the existence of an internal subsystem characterized by its procedures — pretrial detention —, the offenses — street crime —, the sentences — imprisonment — and the social characteristics of those convicted, suggests an approach to the interpretation of these findings.     

Impact of the Stand Your Ground law on gun deaths: evidence of a rural urban dichotomy

We explore the impact of the Stand Your Ground (SYG) law on gun deaths by degree of urbanization. Unlike firearm homicides the definition of firearm deaths does not depend on the broadening of the self-defense provision that the SYG law represents. Using a difference-in-difference design, we find that the SYG law had no impact on gun deaths at the state level. However, once the U.S. states are disaggregated into portions by degree of urbanization—central city, suburb, small urban area and rural area—we find that the law increased gun deaths in the central cities and the suburbs, and had no impact in smaller urban areas and rural areas. These findings are consistent with the fact that there is a great divide between urban and rural areas in terms of ownership and usage of guns, attitudes towards guns, and the implications thereof. The finding of increased violence in the suburbs is of particular interest in the historical backdrop whereby the growth of the suburbs, to a large extent, may have been motivated by a desire to escape crime and violence.