Intelligence analysts and policymakers: Benefits and dangers of tensions in the relationship

This article is occasioned by public interest in reported tensions between CIA analysts and policymaking officials of the administration of President George W. Bush regarding the significance of ties between the Saddam Hussein regime and Al Qaeda terrorists, an important factor in the US decision to invade Iraq in 2003. No evaluation of the latter case is provided. The article addresses, instead, general patterns of tensions between intelligence analysts and policy officials in order to provide context for public assessment of the Iraq-Al Qaeda incident when the public record is more complete and enhance understanding of similar future instances of tension.     

Book-to-market, size, and distress risk

Fama and French （1992） argue that the book-to-market effect might be due to distress risk. CHAN, CHEN and Hsieh （1985） show that a large portion of the size effect can be explained by a default factor. This paper examines the relationship between size, book-to-market effects and distress risk. The paper provides evidence suggesting that size and book-to-market effects are very important in estimating the risk premium in Amman Stock Exchange （ASE）. Furthermore, consistent with Dichev （1998） the paper concludes that the distress risk is unlikely to account for the size and book-to-market effects.     

Governmental participation and the organizational adaptation of Green parties: On access, slack, overload and distress

Abstract.  This article explores the reciprocal links between the organizational transformation of Western European Green parties and their governmental experience. On the one hand, a series of hypotheses with regards to the possible link between prior organizational adaptation and eventual access to governmental participation are examined. On the other, the opposite question is addressed: that of the potential impact of governmental participation – and, more recently, exit from government – on further organizational adaptation. Following both a qualitative and a qualitative comparative (QCA) analysis, one ultimately identifies a link between prior organizational adaptation and eventual access to government, but a much more indirect and contrasted link between governmental participation (and exit from government) and further organizational adaptation.     

The consents of The Calculus

I study a game where two agents bargain on an agreement to replace the status quo. For their agreement to come into effect, they need the approval of a third agent. The preferences of this third agent is private information, but there is communication among agents. I study this game in the context of international agreements to provide an explanation for involuntary ratification failures. I show that under certain assumptions, the informational deficiency is incurable due to incentives to misrepresent preferences, and that a parliament whose majority is more hawkish than their executive prefers the executive to be risk averse.     

论第四个货币时代的到来

纸币制度推动了人类社会商品经济飞速发展,但纸币制度存在严重缺陷,带来了多种形态的经济危机,纸币制度还不是人类终极的货币制度。 电子货币时代正在向我们走来。尽管今天的电子货币还只是作为纸币的代用物形式出现,就像历史上纸币一开始也曾以金属货币代用物形式出现一样,最终电子货币会     

The report of The International Commission of Inquiry on Darfur: The question of genocide

The crisis in Darfur (Sudan), which sparked in February 2003, only caught the United Nations’ attention in Spring 2004. Questions emerged as to whether the conflict between the rebels and the government was simply insurgency warfare or, in fact, concealed a genocide carried out by the Arab, Muslim-led government against the Animist and Christian-African population. The issue became so divisive that the Security Council requested the creation of an investigation team, the International Commission of Inquiry on Darfur, which amongst other tasks had to examine whether genocide had taken place. This article analyzes the facts as well as the legal reasoning that guided the International Commission of Inquiry in drawing the conclusion that a governmental policy to commit genocide had not been formed.     

《有闲阶级论》的理论成就

凡勃伦的《有闲阶级论》是现代消费社会学的开山之作,至今仍是这一领域最值得认真阅读的著作。本文试从三个方面讨论这本经典著作,其一,《有闲阶级论》并非如其表面那样容易阅读,及其理由何在?其二,《有闲阶级论》一书包含三个上下连贯的组成部分:凡勃伦的社会哲学和方法论(一般理论);关于有闲阶级的系统理论;对有闲阶级现象的系统观察;其三,从分析社会学的理论视角看《有闲阶级论》的理论得失。     

白寿彝先生的民族关系史观浅论

白寿彝先生是我国当代著名的民族史史学家。在民族关系史研究中,白寿彝先生强调注重民族团结、民族协作、汉族的主体性等在民族关系发展中的地位与作用等,极大的促进了我国的民族关系史史学理论的进步与发展。     

The Process of Government and The Governmental Process

This review finds little utility in Bentley's famous The Process of Government . It is asserted that his book is cited as a primary source of interest group writing, but in fact, the review argues, that this prominence is given mainly by those who want to criticise the interest group orientation. Critics commonly misinterpret the group approach as meaning that policy is the outcome of an interest group struggle: such critics seem to find in Bentley that banal and easily discredited position. The review argues that in fact Bentley's stress on group conflict was anything but coincident with interest group conflict. The charge is unfair on Bentley as it grotesquely simplifies his position and is unfair on the general interest group approach because that perspective is not adequately summarised by a distortion of Bentley. In contrast Truman's The Governmental Process is commended as raising issues that are strikingly contemporary.     

The Policy Sciences: The Challenge of Complexity

This essay reviews some of the recent criticisms of positivist science. It interprets this criticism, more generally, as directed towards the complexity of social science phenomena and the difficulty of dealing with complexity epistemologically and methodologically. Rather than ignoring complexity, changing the subject matter or explaining it away, we argue that complexity may be acknowledged and studied systematically withn the context of post-positivist approaches. The essay than proposes several strategies for conceptualizing and researching complexity (at a "meta-level" from substantive policy research) that are based in systems theory.     

君子人格与人的现代化

当今中国正走在社会现代化的道路上,而社会现代化的关键在于人的现代化。人的现代化的核心是人的素质的现代化,这也是形成现代人格的前提条件。孔子提出的"君子人格"是先秦儒家的理想人格,是具有中国特色的符合中国民族性格和文化传承的基本人格,同时也符合现代价值观,对于现代人格的形成有不可或缺的作用。