The Power of Prestige: Explaining China’s Nuclear Weapons Decisions

ABSTRACT

The majority of the nuclear proliferation literature is dedicated to understanding why states acquire nuclear weapons. While this question remains important, it is also advantageous to push beyond this inquiry to ask what motivates a state’s nuclear decisions after acquisition. Recent research indicates that a state’s nuclear force structure is heavily influenced by its threat environment. But what explains decisions relating to specific nuclear weapon systems? If security is a sufficient explanatory variable, then why would a state pursue nuclear weapons with high development and production costs but relatively low security gains? Using China as a case study, this article explores the power of prestige in explaining such decisions.     

Review Essay: Stabilizing Nuclear Southern Asia

ABSTRACT

This review article considers three significant volumes recently published in the field of Southern Asian security studies. These consist of Not War, Not Peace? Motivating Pakistan to Prevent Cross-Border Terrorism, by Toby Dalton and George Perkovich; Sameer Lalwani and Hannah Haegeland (eds.), Investigating Crises: South Asia’s Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories; and Mooed Yusuf, Brokering Peace in Nuclear Environments: U.S. Crisis Management in South Asia. In the wake of the 2019 India–Pakistan Pulwama militarized crisis, each book focuses on a distinct element of the Southern Asian security milieu that is crucial to understanding drivers of regional insecurity and potential pathways toward greater stability. However, collectively, they leave room for greater exploration for the effects of emerging trends in this regional strategic competition. These include the evolving regional preferences and actions of China, the potential for Pakistan-based terrorist groups to become independent actors throughout a Southern Asian crisis, and the growing prominence of precision-strike standoff weapons in the strategic planning of China, India, and Pakistan. Still, these three volumes prove indispensable for understanding the contemporary political and security dynamics of Southern Asia.     

India as a Regional Power: Identifying the Impact of Roles and Foreign Policy Orientation on the South Asian Security Order

Abstract

The Regional Powers and Security Framework provides a systematic method to assess how the relative strength and behavior of regional powers influence regional security orders. This article applies the framework to India as a South Asian regional power. The analysis indicates that although the region is unipolar; India's impact is limited because of its failure to play leadership and custodianship roles. It does serve as a protector of the region from external threats, doing so through a unilateral, status quo, and reactive orientation. Application of this framework points to a lack of a hegemonic security order in South Asia, in spite of India's self-view as the region's natural hegemon. For India to be hegemonic, it would have to play these roles in a comprehensive manner.     

Economic Engagement and Nuclear Security in Asia

Abstract

Economic engagement and nuclear security are two key contemporary issues on the Asian security landscape. The development of US economic and strategic ties with India is symbolic of Washington's general pivot towards Asia, and the US-India nuclear pact, which combined economic and strategic aspects, and also highlights the potentially growing interest in nuclear energy. This review essay examines these economic and nuclear aspects of Asian security, points out problems and prospects concerning the governance of nuclear weapon programs, and the commercial industry's role in managing nuclear proliferation.     

Short term interests,long term perspectives: Balancing South Africa's peace and security approach in the EU–SA Strategic Partnership

ABSTRACT

South Africa’s peace and security outlook in the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership has been guided by the content and substance of the founding document, which incorporates an interdependent approach to development. For South Africa, engagement in the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership is framed by its historical background, its identity and the content of its foreign policy. South Africa's foreign policy in particular adopts an integrated approach to securing the state within its surrounding regional and continental geography. This article reviews South Africa's approach to peace and security, in the context of the strategic partnership. The article argues that, overall, South Africa's definition of peace and security is compatible with that of the EU; however, Pretoria's vision of how it provides peace and security has naturally changed in line with the varying international circumstances in which it has found itself. While this has proved difficult at times to reconcile, peace and security collaboration in the strategic partnership has managed to remain intact.     

Indigenous African marriage and same-sex partnerships: Conflicts and controversies

ABSTRACT

In 2006 the Constitutional Court of South Africa ruled the common law definition of marriage to be unconstitutional because it did not accord same-sex couples the same benefits and responsibilities as heterosexual couples. This defect was corrected by the legislature with the enactment of the Civil unions Act. The recognition of same-sex partnerships or marriages by the Act reflects and acknowledges the diverse nature of a changing South African society. A question triggered by this legal development is the impact that same-sex partnerships will have on the country's customary law on marriage. This article presents a critical analysis of a possible co-existence between same-sex partnerships and customary laws on marriage. The author explores the customs upon which customary laws of marriage are founded, and assesses their flexibility in accommodating same-sex partnerships.     

ASIAN WAR MACHINES

ABSTRACT

The South Asian security landscape is increasingly dominated by a complex four-way dynamic between India, Pakistan, China, and the United States. The stresses and strains of the relationships between these states directly affect the prospects for peace and prosperity for almost half of humanity. This article describes some of the military contours of this landscape, with a focus on strategic postures, weapon acquisitions, and the role of nuclear weapons. It maps the India–Pakistan arms race over the past decade, the economic constraints on the two states, the role of China and the United States as weapons suppliers, and the risk and consequences for nuclear war. The authors then look at India's relationship with China, which is marked by both cooperation and competition, and the rise of China as a close military, political, and economic ally of Pakistan. While the United States has had long-standing cooperative relationships with both India and Pakistan, these relationships have been undergoing major shifts over the last two decades. U.S. concerns about China's increasing military and economic power have also intensified over this period as well. Of particular significance has been the effort to create a U.S.–India strategic partnership to balance and contain a rising China, which may become a central feature of the emerging global order. This article also offers a brief overview of what is publicly known about the nuclear arsenals of the four countries, ongoing production of weapons-usable fissile materials in Pakistan and India, as well as the race to build longer-range missiles.     

Do Nuclear Weapons Stabilize South Asian Militarized Crises? Evidence from the 1990 Case

Abstract

Scholars have claimed that nuclear weapons help to stabilize South Asia by preventing Indo-Pakistani militarized crises from escalating to the level of all-out conventional war. This article argues that while nuclear weapons have had cautionary effects on Indian and Pakistani decision makers, proliferation also has played a role in fomenting some of the very crises that scholars credit nuclear weapons with defusing. Moreover, nuclear deterrence was not always essential to preventing these crises from escalating to the level of outright war. The article illustrates its argument with evidence from the Indo-Pakistani militarized crisis of 1990.

Leading scholars and analysts have argued that nuclear weapons help to prevent South Asian militarized crises from escalating to the level of all-out conventional war. ¹ 1. See, e.g., Sumit Ganguly, Conflict Unending: India-Pakistan Tensions Since 1947 (New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2002), pp. 109–110; Devin Hagerty, The Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation: Lessons from South Asia (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1998), pp. 133–170; Kenneth N. Waltz, “For Better,” in Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed (New York: Norton, 2003), pp. 109–124; K. Subrahmanyam, “India and the International Nuclear Order,” in D. R. SarDesai and G. C. Raju Thomas, eds., Nuclear India in the Twenty-First Century (New York: Palgrave-Macmillan, 2002), pp. 63–84, at pp. 82–83; Raja Menon, A Nuclear Strategy for India (New Delhi: Sage Publications, 2000), pp. 197–198. A considerable literature exists regarding nuclear weapons’ general effects on the South Asian security environment. Scholars optimistic that nuclear weapons will help to pacify South Asia include Waltz, “For Better”; Hagerty, The Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation; John J. Mearsheimer, “Here We Go Again,” New York Times, May 17, 1998; Subrahmanyam, “India and the International Nuclear Order”; Bharat Karnad, Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security: The Realist Foundations of Strategy (New Delhi: Macmillan India, 2002). Scholars pessimistic as to nuclear weapons’ likely effects on the regional security environment include Scott D. Sagan, “For the Worse: Till Death Do Us Part,” in Sagan and Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons; P. R. Chari, “Nuclear Restraint, Nuclear Risk Reduction, and the Security–Insecurity Paradox in South Asia,” in Michael Krepon and Chris Gagné, eds., The Stability–Instability Paradox: Nuclear Weapons and Brinksmanship in South Asia (Washington, DC: The Stimson Center, 2001), pp. 15–36; Kanti Bajpai, “The Fallacy of an Indian Deterrent,” in Amitabh Mattoo, ed., India’s Nuclear Deterrent: Pokhran II and Beyond (New Delhi: HarAnand, 1999); Samina Ahmed, “Security Dilemmas of Nuclear-Armed Pakistan,” Third World Quarterly Vol. 21, No. 5 (October 2000), pp. 781–793; S. R. Valluri, “Lest We Forget: The Futility and Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons for India,” in Raju G.C. Thomas and Amit Gupta, eds., India’s Nuclear Security (United States: Lynne Rienner, 2000), pp. 263–273. This claim has important implications for the regional security environment and beyond. Given the volatile nature of Indo-Pakistani relations, reducing the likelihood of crisis escalation would make the subcontinent significantly safer. The claim also suggests that nuclear weapons could lower the probability of war in crisis-prone conflict dyads elsewhere in the world.

This article takes a less sanguine view of nuclear weapons’ impact on South Asian militarized crises. It argues that while nuclear weapons have at times had important cautionary effects on Indian and Pakistani decision makers, proliferation has played a role in fomenting a number of the very crises that scholars credit nuclear weapons with defusing. Moreover, it is not clear that nuclear deterrence was essential to preventing some of these crises from escalating to the level of outright war. I illustrate my argument with evidence from the period when India and Pakistan were acquiring nascent nuclear weapons capabilities. I show that during the late 1980s, Pakistan’s emerging nuclear capacity emboldened Pakistani decision makers to provide extensive support to the emerging insurgency against Indian rule in Jammu and Kashmir. In early 1990, India responded with large-scale force deployments along the Line of Control and International Border, in an attempt to stem militant infiltration into Indian territory, and potentially to intimidate Pakistan into abandoning its Kashmir policy. Pakistan countered with large deployments of its own, and the result was a major Indo-Pakistani militarized standoff. Although scholars have credited Pakistani nuclear weapons with deterring India from attacking Pakistan during this crisis, the preponderance of available evidence suggests that Indian leaders never seriously considered striking Pakistan, and therefore were not in fact deterred from launching a war in 1990. Thus nuclear weapons played an important role in fomenting a major Indo-Pakistani crisis during this period, but probably were not instrumental in preventing the crisis from escalating to the level of outright war.

Below, I briefly describe the emergence of the Kashmir insurgency. I then explain how Pakistan’s nuclear capacity encouraged it to support the uprising. Next, I show how conflict between Pakistan-supported guerillas and Indian security forces in Kashmir drove a spiral of tension between the two countries, which led to a stand-off between Indian and Pakistani armed forces in early 1990. Finally, I discuss the end of the 1990 crisis, and address the role that nuclear weapons played in its peaceful deescalation.     

South Korea and China's Security Objectives in East Asia

This article explores how South Korea relates to China's national security objectives in East Asia. Specifically, it argues that for China, the strategic value of South Korea lies in coping with the strong position of the US in East Asia. Moreover, South Korea's stance on the North Korean nuclear issue is closer to China's, compared with that of the US.     

The undoing of a unique relationship? Peace and security in the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership

ABSTRACT

When the European Union (EU) and South Africa acceded to a strategic partnership, they expanded into new areas of partnership. One of these areas was peace and security, which is the focus of this article. The article argues that, although there appears to be a shared understanding of what security means, the strategic partnership has not been utilised significantly to further this understanding in practice. This is largely due to the EU's preferences for a continental, multilateral approach over the bilateralism of a strategic partnership. At the same time, South Africa sees its strategic partnership with the EU as being outside of its broader commitment to regional security. As a result the peace and security element of the strategic partnership has not been leveraged effectively despite several entry points for action. The article thus concludes that both the EU and South Africa need to re-think the current arrangement.     

Hierarchy in Asian International Relations: 1300-1900

Abstract

Scholars in the field of international relations tend to treat the contemporary Asian system as if it emerged fully formed from nothingness in the post-World War II and post-colonial era. This essay explores a major historical epoch—the Asian international system from 1300 to 1900. During that time, the Asian international system was both intensive and extensive, in both interactions and relations between Asian states. Thus, understanding and incorporating this system into our theories of international relations is critical. To date, scholars have rarely described the main features of this system. In this article, I attempt such a task, and will also draw implications for mainstream international relations theories. In short, the research in this essay reveals that the historical Asian international system was stable and hierarchic in nature. The main theoretical finding is an alternative to the balancing proposition. That is, the findings in this article present a major empirical challenge to the argument that balance of power is a recurrent phenomenon across time and geography. Furthermore, this article shows that hierarchy may be more stable than balancing as an organizing principle in international relations.     

Downsizing Hegemony: Alliance,Domestic Politics,and American Retrenchment in East Asia, 1969–2017

By investigating the domestic debate over the US troop reduction in Japan and South Korea for the past several decades, this article explores variation in the Asian allies’ reactions to American retrenchment. Instead of inferring regional responses solely from external security environments, this paper pays particular attention to domestic political contexts in which different political actors compete to frame the meanings and consequences of the US military presence, with implications for alliance dynamics in East Asia. I argue that along with the perceived levels of external threats, considerations of foreign policy autonomy and political legitimacy shape the ways in which the two Asian allies have responded to the US retrenchment.     

US Extended Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Order: An Australian Perspective

Abstract

This article addresses the question of how US extended nuclear deterrence might endure in a shifting Asia-Pacific where the traditional nuclear order underpinning the credibility of US security guarantees is deteriorating. The Australian case study demonstrates how periods of nuclear order and disorder can inform a state's attitudes toward the credibility of extended nuclear deterrence. Australia's interest in a nuclear weapons capability from 1956 to 1972 was symptomatic of a period of nuclear disorder. This interest declined from the early 1970s due to changes in both the global and regional environments where the proliferation and use of nuclear weapons was relatively contained. This emerging, recognizable nuclear order diminished the interest in an indigenous nuclear weapons capability and led Canberra to rely on US extended nuclear deterrence. This order has remained fairly robust for more than 30 years. However, beyond 2012, we may yet witness a breakdown in this order. This will generate a much greater interest by US allies in the operational aspects of US extended nuclear deterrence.     

Energy cooperation problems in Northeast Asia: Unfolding the reality

It is a truism that Northeast Asian states could benefit very much if they were to cooperate in the energy security realm. However, to many, especially economists, their behaviour to this common sense solution has been bewildering: there has been simply no progress towards this end and it still remains a puzzle, even to many energy specialists. This article attempts to answer a simple question: Why do the Northeast Asian states, namely China, Japan, Korea, and Russia, not cooperate? For its analysis, the author of the article relies on content analysis of recently released official governmental long-term energy policy and strategy documents of these states, and notes that cooperation for energy security reasons at the regional level is conspicuously absent, which possibly implies a lack of desire and willingness to do so amongst themselves. The article, however, deliberately omits from its study Korea, simply because no such long-term energy policy exists today. It attributes the major cause to the strong propensity by energy specialists to interchangeably use the concepts of ‘energy cooperation’ and ‘energy security’ in their analysis.     

Gender and ethnicity in the Soviet Muslim peripheries: a feminist postcolonial geography of women’s work in the Tajik SSR (1950–1991)

ABSTRACT

This article explores the articulation and experience of Soviet gendered ideology regarding work in the Tajik SSR, one of the Muslim Soviet peripheries, during the post-war period ending with Perestroika. Central Asian women’s work was used for economic purposes, as well as being a key driver for fulfilling the ideological objective of emancipating Central Asian women from religion and tradition. Through a feminist postcolonial geography approach, attentive to questions of discourse and material lived experiences, this article explores the ways in which gender and ethnicity were co-produced by Soviet ideology. Analysis of scientific publications produced by Tajikistani female researchers, and of women’s magazines from the 1950s, is contrasted with ethnographic data on workers from various collective farms and semi-urban places, including ‘work heroines’ (peshqadam). Our findings illustrate the hybrid nature of the Soviet regime, advancing theoretical debates on the use of postcolonial theory in Soviet Central Asia.     

Russia and South Ossetia: conferring statehood or creeping annexation?

Abstract

Events in Ukraine have distracted international attention from the ongoing Russian involvement in the unresolved conflicts of the South Caucasus. This article explores the intensification of relations between South Ossetia and Moscow, focusing on the extent to which South Ossetia exists as a functioning state entity. Are the authorities in Tskhinvali able to provide vital services such as defence and control over ‘state’ borders and territory without Russian involvement? What has been happening in South Ossetia is important, despite being overshadowed by events in Ukraine, as it is indicative of what may well occur in eastern Ukraine: a simmering separatist conflict that is far more than a domestic territorial dispute, with both regional and international implications.     

The character and value of vernacular security: the case of South West Cameroon

ABSTRACT

This article reports the findings of field research into the vernacular understanding of security in South West Cameroon. It was found that security significantly contested; it is both objective and subjective; it is communal, whilst at the same time requiring individual l responsibility of personal security; it favours certainty and stability; it draws on a multiplicity of providers, and it goes beyond traditional conceptualisations. The findings make it clear that there are wide divergences between the typical state and donor driven security reform programmes, and people’s perceived security needs. The definition of security is challenged by popular understandings. In addition, though not rejecting the need for state security, it is evident that many more actors are engaged in security provision and personal safety than state actors, and that these actors need to be accounted for in reform programmes. Conclusion draw out advantages of the vernacular approach in security reform programmes.     

China and Competing Cooperation in Asia-Pacific: TPP,RCEP, and the New Silk Road

Abstract

A big question looming large over policy and theory in Asian security is how China will use its newfound wealth and power in the region and with what consequences. The United States has concluded the negotiation of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP); ASEAN has promoted the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Both frameworks seek to shape China’s regional behavior and manage rising China. In late 2013, China inaugurated the new Silk Road initiative, which has rapidly gained momentum in the country and among China’s neighbors. American public and policy makers, however, are largely unaware or baffled by the new Silk Road. The article, based on field surveys and extensive documentary analysis, provides the first roadmap on how China views TPP, RCEP, and the new Silk Road. It offers important exploration of how China acts and reacts to regional contestation and what are implications for the region.     

Should South Korea go Nuclear?

A nuclear debate has arisen in South Korea following North Korea's nuclear tests and weapons program. Despite the US extended nuclear deterrence for its security, a sizable section of the people in South Korea have started debating if their country can revisit the nuclear option as a deterrent to North Korea's continued threats. Several law makers have started articulating such a view. Several opinion polls held recently also endorse such a view. However, the US is unlikely to allow South Korea to take the nuclear path as it would have serious consequences not only for the region but also the world. China would also not rejoice with the prospect of having another nuclear power in its neighborhood. If South Korea goes nuclear, Japan and Taiwan will find it difficult to resist having their own nuclear weapons. To stem such a trend, it becomes all the more necessary for the international community to address the issue of denuclearizing North Korea. The suspended Six-Party-Talks ought to restart soon and China has a great role in reigning in Pyongyang. Fortunately, the government in South Korea has not supported the view of the country going nuclear. But if the security situation deteriorates further, it might become irresistible for the government to have a rethink, with an inevitable domino effect in Japan and Taiwan soon.

This article makes an in-depth study of the prevailing trend in South Korea, the views of some influential law makers pleading for the country to go nuclear, various public opinions polls, possible US stance and implications that such a change in policy would have on the region's security situation and the author's assessment based on the critical examination of the above-mentioned factors. Many sources have been cited to analyze this issue before arriving at an objective assessment of the point raised in this essay.     

North Korea's juche ideology: indigenous communism or traditional thought?

ABSTRACT

This article examines the content of North Korea's juche ideology by analyzing official texts in comparison with Confucian classics and new religious movements in South Korea. The comparison revealed a series of similarities that vividly demonstrate that juche ideas have absorbed core elements of Korean and East Asian philosophical traditions.